BlogThe CJ Cup Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So what a beautiful thing this PGA Tour bubble is.  Because of COVID-19, the PGA Tour won’t have to go off to Korea and Japan, as those events have been moved to the United States.  Even better, the events retain their full FedEx Cup points (500) along with the purse of $9.75 million, with the winner getting $1.75 million.

The Zozo Championship, which was played in Japan and won by Tiger Woods, will be next week and move to Sherwood Country Club just north of Los Angeles.  As for the CJ Cup, played in South Korea, they pulled off a remarkable switch as the event moves to Las Vegas and Shadow Creek Golf Course, which is about ten miles northeast of TPC Summerlin.  The buzz on this is remarkable because Shadow Creek is one of those virtual impossible to play, even though anyone can play the course.  Yes, the course is very exclusive and an extraordinary layout, one of the hidden gems of golf along the same lines as Augusta National, Pine Valley, or Pinehurst.  Now the average person doesn’t have a shot in the world of playing Augusta or Pine Valley, they have a tiny elite membership, and you have to know one of those members for a chance to play the course.  But like Pinehurst, anyone can play Shadow Creek if you don’t mind paying a hefty fee.  On top of the $600 the course “fee,” you also have to stay in one of the MGM properties in Las Vegas like the Bellagio, The Mirage, Aria, or the MGM Grand.  The average rate for those rooms starts at $250.  Now you can also be one of those “invited guests” if you are considered a “high roller.”  To get this status, you probably need to get $100,000 of chips and have no problem betting $5,000 per hand on a blackjack table.

This was the reason Las Vegas casino mogul Steve Wynn initially conceived Shadow Creek.  In the 1980s, Wynn was busy creating the fanciest and most creative hotels on the Vegas Strip.  His hotels were not only big and grand but would make one gulp on entering the property.  Between its lavish water fountains in front of the Bellagio, to its live volcano that erupted on the hour at the Mirage, to its showcase shows of white lions and tigers in the Siegfried & Roy show, Wynn created not only the best hotels in the world but those that gave folks that Disneyland type atmosphere before they dropped their house payments in his casino’s.  In the late 1980s, Wynn turned his attention to golf and wanted to create not only the most beautiful course in the world but one that made you feel you were in heaven and one that would be ultra-exclusive with the thought that golfers would be sure to have a reason for booking a Wynn property.

Money was no object in building Shadow Creek.  Located North of the strip, the land was nothing more than a piece of desert land, which in 1986 was in the middle of nowhere.  Folklore says that Wynn picked the 350-acre site under the air space of nearby Nellis Air Force Base so that no paparazzi camerapersons would be hanging out of a helicopter to shot one of Wynn’s VIPs that was playing.  Folklore says that when Wynn hired course architect Tom Fazio to create the layout.  He was given a blank check to create a course that didn’t look like it was in the middle of the desert.  Instead, Wynn was hoping he could create something with rolling terrain, rolling hillsides, lots of lakes with waterfalls, and hundreds of varieties of trees with exotic birds.  Wynn also wanted to make sure that those that played the course would not know the course was in the middle of the desert and the same from those outside the course, nobody was able to see that a course was on the property.  Wynn and Fazio did this by not only digging the course into the desert.  At the same time, he lowered its elevation but using the earth to pile it around the property so that while on the course, you could see the mountains around the course but not the desert.  Wynn wanted a lush forest in the middle of the desert with a golf course.  When the course first opened in 1989, it was in the middle of the desert, but today the course is surrounded by housing developments that aren’t seen on the course even though they are around the berm that protects the course’s privacy.

Wynn didn’t care about the costs. He increased Fazio’s fee and told him to make something special to golf.  Folklore says that Wynn spent $60 million on the course, $20 million on the course, $20 million into the landscaping, and $20 million on the facilities.

I was lucky enough to play the course in 1997 and was moved at not only the elevation change, supposedly there are over 50 feet of elevation change, but what makes things unique you can’t tell your in the middle of the desert.  When the course held the Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson skins game at Thanksgiven of 2018, the story got out that all top-ten of the world’s best players have played the course, and seven of them considered Shadow Creek as one of their favorite courses.

Over the years, I have heard how many people try to make that “bucket list” round at Pebble Beach, but Shadow Creek could be a better deal for a lot of people.  Yes, you have to spend a lot to stay at an MGM property, and the cost of the round is $600, but I can tell you the experience is something to do.  Yes, $600 is a lot, but you get a lot.  Your adventure starts when a limo picks you up at the hotel for the 30-minute journey to the course.  You can tell how special it is when you see a chilled bottle of Bollinger is awaiting you. Even better on the ride home was a bottle of Dom Perignon.  But the limo drops you off, and you are assigned a locker, and if you want to grab something to eat, they have full facilities.  When it’s time for golf, you are assigned a caddy, and if you wish, you can use a cart while playing.  All of this is part of the $600 fee. One thing you are encouraged to tip handsomely.  We have all heard of the term “King for a day,” when you play Shadow Creek, you are the King of the day.

So who does Shadow Creek favor the most?

We have very little historical data on Shadow Creek.  We know that a lot of touring pros have played the course, before the course was renovated in 2008 the course record was 60 held by Tiger Woods and Fred Couples.  Since then Dustin Johnson holds the record at 65.  Based off of playing the course in 1997 I realized you couldn’t overpower the course, you had to keep it in the fairway.  The course has the same stereotype of Colonial Golf Club in Ft. Worth, Texas, if you hit it too far you could go through the fairway.  And it’s impossible to cut off the doglegs so don’t look for long hitters to have a big advantage.  I also see the need for good iron play to get your shot on the green in the right place to make a putt for birdie.  The greens are very quick and have a lot of undulation to them, so putting will be tricky.  It won’t play as tough as a major, yes Winged Foot and Olympia Fields are much tougher than Shadow Creek.  But the course will be demanding like Harding Park was for the PGA Championship.  I see this more of a course that an experience player wins, I don’t see a Martin Laird or Hudson Swafford win this week.  Yes a Stewart Cink or a Sergio Garcia could win, the point is experience and those that play well in majors will thrive this week.  Look for players that are good in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and also putt well.

In looking for a winning score I say 12 under, but that is off of my memory we don’t know if the PGA Tour will set up a hard course and if the greens will be firm.

A bummer announcement

Dustin Johnson has tested positive for COVID-19 and won’t be playing.  Since he held the course record and has said Shadow Creek is one of his favorite courses I had him on top of my list.  Just have to wonder if he will get healthy enough to play next week, this probably puts a cliche in his Masters plans.  Also Tony Finau, who withdrew last week due to COVID-19 withdrew this week.  One last thing, this will be the first start of Brooks Koepka who is returning from knee problems.  In a press conference on Tuesday he said that he feels fine spending the last two months in rehab.  He started hitting balls ten days ago and it feels good.  He did spend some time with Butch Harman last week and says he feels great for the first time in a while.  Will he be a person I bet on, no.  But we will get a sense if things are on the right track and he can work on his game and be ready for the Masters.

Course information:

The course will play to a par of 72 and at 7,327.  Built around and through several lakes and streams, nine holes have water in play.  So this brings in a lot of risk, reward possibilities.  The course is long and tight, on several holes you have to be careful on the tee to make sure you don’t run it through the dogleg.  A perfect example of this is the first hole, a dogleg left par 4.  The hole mends to the left at about the 310 range, so you can hit what you think is a perfect drive but go through the fairway.  The same with the second hole, the fairways is tilted making if look like a dogleg, even though the hole is straight away.  But again you can hit a great drive and go through the fairway, making the shot to the green hard.

Several greens on guarded by water, the par 4 first, the par 5 fifth, the par 4 ninth, par 3 thirteen, par 4 fourteen, par 4 fifteen, par 3 seventeen and par 5 eighteen.

The greens are average size of 5,500 square feet and they are very fast bentgrass  The course as a total of 74 bunkers and a good amount around the greens.  The course was renovated in 2008 and it’s very tough for most players, but I see this won’t be a problem for the pros.  Of course weather and winds will be important, players will love that everyday will be sunny and warm with no rain and very little wind.  Each day will be in the high 80s, so the ball will fly further..

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,300
• Dustin Johnson – $11,100
• Justin Thomas – $10,800
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Xander Schauffele – $10,300
• Matthew Wolff – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Brooks Koepka – $9,700
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600
• Collin Morikawa – $9,500
• Tony Finau – $9,400
• Daniel Berger – $9,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Viktor Hovland – $9,000

I was surprise to see Jon Rahm at the top with a cost of $11,300.  Think after his U.S. Open performance he would be ranked lower, so his value is questioned.  Can he do well on this course, absolutely.  Think everything about Shadow Creek is perfect for his game, using last year’s stats he is 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, he is 18th in Greens in Regulation, 11th in Scrambling and 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting.  So stat wise he is the best, but a very expensive option and he saw the course for the first time this week.  Now Dustin Johnson withdrew so that takes him out.  Justin Thomas is $10,800 which is a large sum but here is a hidden stat that could help you chose him this week.  Of his 13 PGA Tour wins, ten of them have come in limited field, events with no cut just like the CJ Cup.  Have no idea what that means, hard to believe of his 13 wins only the 2018 Honda, 2017 PGA Championship and Sony Open were in full field events (one bit the 2017 Dell Technologies was a limited FedEx Playoff event but had a small cut).  So Thomas seems to strive in these small, limited field events.  Thomas has played Shadow Creek a couple of times and likes it, is concern that the greens could be hard with the undulations but feels the course won’t be overly difficult.  We all know he has the game, and it’s on par to Jon Rahm, if I had a choice between the two would take Rahm.  Rory McIlroy is $10,600 and many will wonder if we should just forget about him.  He hasn’t played well since the break from COVID-19 and will the poor play continue?  I say Rory is a question mark, but there is going to be a time when he gets everything together and plays well.  It could be this week, or next or a month from now.  It’s going to happen, just a matter of when.  As for this week I can’t recommend him based on what has happened since the tour started in June.  A good choice could be Xander Schauffele at $10,300.  He was 5th at the U.S. Open and played well at the Tour Championship, his score was the best of the week.  This is the type of course he plays well on and I can recommend him.  The same with Matthew Wolff at $10,000.  He is 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 44th in Strokes Gained Putting, but his game is sharp with a 2nd in the U.S. Open and last week at the Shriners.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,800 is a problem, for one reason consistency.  Since the break he has that one bad round that really screws him up, last week at the Shriners it was the final round of 73 in which he made four bogeys and no birdies on his front nine.  You just can’t do well if you fold in one round which Cantlay has to figure how not to do.  We talked a bit about Brooks Koepka who is $9,700.  Sorry way too much money for him, we have to see how things go and wait for his next start which will be Houston.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,600 is interesting, he has played great over the last year and won last week at the BMW PGA Championship.  Have to say that normally we would be a bit concerned over flying from London to Las Vegas for an event, but in these times the travel may of taken some out of him.  Because of that I say no to him, but he could prove me wrong.  Normally I was say that Collin Morikawa at $9,500 would be a good pick, but he hasn’t played well since he won the PGA two months ago and has missed his last two cuts.  So he is a no for me.  Tony Finau was at $9,400 but it doesn’t matter he withdrew.  For some Daniel Berger at $9,300 could be a good choice, but I just don’t think the course will suit him and his game hasn’t been sharp since the Northern Trust.  But I like Hideki Matsuyama at $9,200, I know he missed the cut last week at the Shriners and was T-17th at the U.S. Open.  Still this course is perfect for his game and I can see a good week out of him.  As for Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100, he has played the last two weeks in Great Britain and despite playing well in Scotland, wasn’t sharp at Wentworth.  But the course doesn’t suit him and I think Shadow Creek will be ok for his game, still like with Hatton the travel could be to much for him.  Last is Viktor Hovland at $9,000.  He is always very consistent in making cuts and could be the new version of Charles Howell III.  If you want someone that will make the cut and finish between 10th and 30th he is your man.  But his biggest fault for DraftKings is his product numbers.  He is 237th in birdie average for last year and 246th in par breakers so his product is terrible, stay away from him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Matthew Fitzpatrick at $8,900 jumps out, he is quiet and has the game to play well at Shadow Creek.  Was T-7th at Wentworth, that could be a problem with the travel but the one piece of warning on him despite stats that show he was 2nd last year in Strokes Gained Putting he struggles in greens in regulation (153rd last year) and missed the cut at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.  But watch Sungjae Im who is at $8,700.  I say that because his game seems to be coming back, after finishing 22nd at the U.S. Open was T-28th at the Sanderson and T-13th at Shriners, I could see him doing well this week.  Also like Harris English at $8,600, yes he missed the cut at the Shriners but did play at 5 under.  Was 4th at the U.S. Open but I like that he was 18th in both Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and Putting and was 9th in greens in regulation.  He also makes a lot of birdies, ranking 34th in birdie average.  Louis Oosthuizen at $8,500 is also another good pick, he has been in the top-33 in his last six starts and was 3rd at the U.S. Open and T-19th last week.  He plays hard courses good and should fit in at Shadow Creek.  Sergio Garcia at $8,400 has also had a good run and we know he is good from tee to green.  Abraham Ancer is $8,200 is a good choice, was T-42nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 41st in putting.  He was 4th last week at the Shriners so anything can happen with him.  Last in this category is Shane Lowry at $7,600, for him that is a good price he played bad over the weekend at BMW PGA but finished T-13th

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the CJ Cup

Off the bat see that Ian Poulter is $7,400, he was T-6th in the Scottish Open and 5th at the BMW PGA.  I also find Jordan Spieth at $7,300 ridiculous.  Yes he is 90th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 190th in greens in regulation, but he is still great around the greens and on the greens.  Still, the hard core facts are that he has missed his last three cuts and probably will fade this week too.  Si Woo Kim at $7,100 is good, he isn’t great in the stat department, but in the same breath not bad.  Was 67th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, is 123rd in Strokes Gained putting and was T-8th last week, so the price is right.  Now the bargain in this category could be Russell Henley at $7,100.  He is 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and is 5th in greens in regulation.  His putting is poor but his play has been good in the last two months.  The same with Sebastian Munoz at $7,000, he has about the same numbers as Henley and could help you for a very cheap price.  Lastly I like JooHyung Kim at $6,400, think this youngster will be the future of golf, he is just 18 and done a lot of great things in Asia and in Safeway was T-67th and T-33rd at Corales.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek:

The key stat for the winner:

Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  So for each player, it will be a new adventure learning the course.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The course will be in perfect condition, and the greens will be some of the finest they play.  With all of the undulation on them, I think an excellent putter will do well.
• In 2018 we saw the epic playoff between two bombers, Justin Thomas and Marc Leishman.  In 2019 we saw a great performance of ball striking and putting as Brooks Koepka lapped the field.  Last year we saw Justin Thomas win again and he played great.  I like a person that makes a lot of birdies, this is the trend on those playing a new course.  Remember this, no matter what people say about a course, the advantage is always on the top players in the world, they play a different game than all of us and shouldn’t have problems scoring on this course.
• One last thing, look for players that have done well of late.