BlogBermuda Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz

So we are just two weeks before the Masters and this week’s Bermuda Championship was originally suppose to be a second tier event opposite the WGC-HSBC Champions, but when that event that was suppose to be played in China was canceled, the Bermuda Championship was upgraded to a full event status in which full FedExCup points will be given and the winner will also receive an invite to the 2021 Masters.  Now the important aspect of this week, it will be the first event on the PGA Tour schedule since the COVID-19 breakout to all spectators, but there will only be 500 folks in attendance each day.  This event last year was big for Brendon Todd who was hadn’t won in five-years but even worst had suffered the worst rath of driver-yips and some really poor play.  When he entered last year’s event he was 525th in the Official World Golf Rankings and the win brought him to 185th.  Todd not only won in Bermuda last year, but won the next week at Mayakoba and comes into this years Bermuda Championship 41st in the world rankings.

Course information:

• Port Royal GC
• Southampton, Bermuda
• 6,828 yards     Par 36-35–72

Located on the island of Bermuda, which is in the Atlantic Ocean 650 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The course is on the southwest part of the island with most of the holes with views of the Atlantic.  It was originally suppose to be built in 1965 and they had some problems with one farmer who changed his mind on selling the property.  In 1967 all the land was bought and Robert Trent Jones did the routing and the course opened in 1970.

The course is government run and one of the most popular public courses in the world and it was the host of the Bermuda Open.  The course got a $16 million renovation in 2009 so that it could host the PGA Grand Slam of Golf.  With the support of the Bermuda Government, Port Royal is now one of the world’s premier public golf courses boasting TifEagle greens, a state-of-the art irrigation system and sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole.  Forecasts call for normal 10 mph winds on Thursday and Sunday, but Friday will see 22 mph and Saturday 15 mph.  Because of the winds, it makes keeping the balls in the fairway and hitting greens harder.  Still the course will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, so those that have offense will do good.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Brendon Todd – $11,100
• Will Zalatoris- $10,900
• Harold Varner III – $10,700
• Doc Redman – $10,400
• Emiliano Grillo – $10,100
• Charley Hoffman – $9,700
• Denney McCarthy – $9,500
• Henrik Stenson – $9,300
• Cameron Tringale – $9,200
• Kristoffer Ventura – $9,100
• Peter Malnati – $9,000

This is another really hard event to peg.  Just like the Safeway when Stewart Cink won, the Corales Puntacan when Hudson Swafford won and even the CJ Cup when Jason Kokrak won this week is going to be the player you least expected to win.  Just look at last year when Brendon Todd won, nobody and I say nobody including Todd’s wife would of put money on Todd to win.  So the best way of looking at this week is to pick six players to make the cut and along with the way hopefully one or two will be in the top-ten.

Brendon Todd at $11,100 on the surface looks like a good bet.  He has made a lot of cuts and did finish T-8th at the BMW Championship, but the price is awfully dear for a player who probably won’t finish in the top-20.  Now Will Zalatoris at $10,900 makes sense.  yes he missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms, but in a combination of PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour events, since coming back from the break in June has finished in the top-ten in 11 of his 15 starts.  In his last start at the Shriners he was T-5th four back of getting in the playoff.  Harold Varner III at $10,700 is a tough bet, he was T-13th at the Shriners, his last start but has been very inconsistent so take a pass on him.  Doc Redman at $10,400 is also a stretch, realize he was T-3rd at Wyndham and Safeway but in the same span missed the cut at the Northern Trust and Shriners.  Emiliano Grillo at $10,100 does make cuts but his price tag is high when you see him out of the top-25 in five of his last six starts.  Charley Hoffman at $9,700 is also priced out of the market, yes was T-6th at Sanderson but missed his next cut at Shriners.  Denney McCarthy at $9,500 is also over priced, yes he was T-9th at Wyndham and T-6th at Sanderson but they are his only top-30 finishes in his last 20 starts.  Henrik Stenson at $9,300 offers a ton of experience and his Hero win last year in the Bahamas comes on a similar course, in similar conditions.  But since the Hero has only mustered one top-25 finish, a T-21st at Corales another course in windy conditions on the Atlantic.  So it’s up to you but I say he is too much money.  Cameron Tringale at $9,200 is also high, yes he was T-3rd at the 3M Open but in the windy conditions of Bermuda I will take a pass.  Kristoffer Ventura at $9,100 could be a good pick.  Yes he missed the cut at Shriners but was five under and the week before was T-6th at Sanderson Farms.  He also was T-7th at Safeway so he could be worth the money and is one of those guys that could be a surprise winner.  Peter Malnati at $9,000 would normally not get my attention, but was 2nd at Sanderson Farms and T-5th at the Shriners.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So wisdom says that our winner will probably come out of this price range.  First is Aaron Wise at $8,600.  Has not done well of late but he was T-3rd last year.  Scott Piercy at $8,500 could be one of these he knows how to contend and surprise us, hasn’t shown any really great play but still could surprise us.  Same with Luke List at $8,400.  We know he can do well, yes missed the cut at Shriners and Sanderson but finished T-8th at Corales in the same conditions as this week.  Adam Schenk at $8,100 is also a good choice, he has made his last ten cuts in a row.  Stewart Cink at $7,900 is also worth a look, he does make a lot of cuts and since his Safeway win, was T-12th at Sanderson Farms and T-64th at Shriners.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

Lot’s of players that you have to go through very carefully to find a combination of making lot’s of cuts and potential for doing well this week in very windy condtions.  I see that Anirban Lahiri is $7,400, he does well in making cuts, but what interests me is that he was T-6th in Corales, another seaside course in tough conditions.  Aussie Matt Jones at $7,400 could also be good, has won at the Australian Open under windy conditions and was T-14th at Corales.  Also like Tyler McCumber at $7,300.  Yes he missed the cut at the Shriners, but was T-6th at Sanderson and 2nd at Corales.  Rob Oppenheim at $7,000 has some value, mixed on being consistent on making the cut but he was T-9th at Puerto Rico last March and if he could do well there could do well this week.  Looking for a player who is cheap and makes a lot of cuts, Beau Hossler at $6,900 could fit the bill, has missed just one cut in his last seven cuts. Like Hank Lebioda at $6,800, he was T-3rd here at Bermuda last year and only missed one cut since 3M Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Bermuda Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what vital stats is essential at Port Royal GC?  Players that hit it long will do better; the course is a bombers paradise.  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason to winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top-stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes the field does have five major champions playing (Henrik Stenson, Danny Willett, Jason Dufner, Padraig Harrington and Stewart Cink) but after that is your Will Zalatori and Charley Hoffman as your key guys  But none of them will win because you do need the firepower to overpower the course.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.