El Camaleon Key Fantasy Stats

Mayakoba Golf Classic

December 3rd – 6th, 2020

El Camaleon

Playa Del Carmen,, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,017

Purse: $7.2 million

with $1,296,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Brendon Todd

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This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s OHL Classic at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021.
This is the 14th year that the Mayakoba Golf Classic is at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashioned stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, and scrambling number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 70.09 average, which was a shot under par as it ranked the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour. It played just about a shot tougher than it did in 2019 when it played to a 69.25 average. That is because of the poor weather and higher than normal winds. In 2018 it played to a 70.32 average, while in 2016, it was played at 70.02, both years in windy conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast, they expect Thunderstorms each day, but winds will be low at 8 mph, so scoring should be easier this year.

So the course did play easier, it ranked 16th (PGA Tour) last year, while in 2019, it ranked 27th in fairways hit, while in 2018, it ranked 32nd. In driving distance, it ranked 5th last year compared to 15th in 2019 and 4th in 2018, meaning that players don’t hit it very long on this course, last year it averaged 285.3, probably again due to winds. Maybe that is why short hitter tends to do very well on this course as Charley Hoffman in 2015 was the only long hitter. Last year Brendon Todd won, and he ranked 187th in driving distance, meaning he is one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 Matt Kuchar won, and he ranked 135th on tour in driving distance. The point is that this event doesn’t see bombers doing well, you need a lot of other things to win, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit seven and a half out of 14 fairways (56.91%), a meager percentage, when you consider that the easiest course the Plantation Course at Kapalua, they hit 12 of 15 fairways (80.93%). They also hit lots of greens at El Camaleon, 12 of 18 (67.15% ranked 22nd). They got it up and down just under 6 out of every 10 tries (60.67%) and averaged 28.68 putts per round of the greens that they missed. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 3.88 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes they played. So frankly, for the average pro, El Camaleon is a lay-up.

In looking at the 27 players that have finished 5th or better in the last five Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 27 players, only nine players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit, and six players finished in the top-ten in driving distance. In 2018 only one player in the top-ten finished in the top-ten in fairways hit, while in 2019, two finished in the top-ten. Those same 27 players, 10 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading that stat. Of the 27 players, 15 of the players finished in the top-ten in putts per round (last year 4 of the top five were in the top-ten). Looking at the 27 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 4 under, the par 4s in 6 under, and the par 5s in 8 under. The 27 players average making 23 birdies, so you can see it’s essential to play the par 5s well and make lots of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Brendon Todd, he was 79th in driving distance, and T-25th in fairways hit, so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was 3rd in greens hit, T-4th in scrambling, and 13th in putts per round. Going a step further, Todd had one 3-putt and was T-13th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 7 under, 2nd best of the week. On the par 4s, he was 9 under, tied for the best of the week. But on the par 5s, he only played them in 4 under, which is the worst of any winner since Harris English also was 4 under in 2014. Todd made 24 birdies tying for the most in the field.
Showing how this could be the norm, look at 2019 championship Matt Kuchar and how close his stats were compared to Todd. Kuchar was T-28th in driving distance, and T-3rd in fairways hit. Now he was T-9th in greens hit, T-5th in scrambling, and T-21st in putts per round. Kuchar had one 3-putts and was T-39th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 4 under, the best of the week was Danny Lee at 6 under. Were Kuchar excel on was the par 4s and par 5s. He was 10 under on the par 4s (he was best in the field), and he was also best in the field on the par 5s at 8 under. Kuchar made 26 birdies, again best in the field.

So in looking at our four categories, we will bring a premium on putting and hitting greens. To lead off, we will use strokes gained – putting, with the understanding that of the 11 events played, nine of those events had numbers to do this stat. Last year El Camaleon didn’t have that stat but was 32nd in putting average. Our next important stat is greens hit, that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon, last year on tour, it was 22nd. Our third important stat is par breakers, making lots of eagles and birdies are important, last year, it ranked 22nd best. Last we look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard, on tour El Camaleon ranked 24th last year.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year, and be sure not to forget about Korn Ferry.Com tour players. Remember, the tour has been off a week, and the Masters was three weeks ago, so players will be a little rusty as many of them were only able to play once in the last three weeks.

*Strokes Gained – Putting: A look at who gains the most strokes putting

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

121 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.