Waialae Key Fantasy Stats

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 14th – 17th, 2021

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, HI

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,044

Purse: $6.6 million

with $1,188,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Cameron Smith

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, based on data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and using data from all the players in the field averaging the rank from 2021 stats.
The scoring average of the field at Waialae last year was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event with the most significant change was par of the course, going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course played under par every year until last year. The reason for this is the wind, and last year they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday, 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year, it’s going to be a different story, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 11 mph each day.
Of course, as we saw at Kapalua last week, weather prediction for Hawaii is haphazard at best, but by the look of the forecast, it looks perfect for the players, like it was in Kapalua. That brings in a different realm of players, those with explosive offensive will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course but still a layup for the world’s best players with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. But last year, with the lack of rough, the field was more accurately as 65.53% of the fairways were hit, and it ranked 32nd. The previous year with rough, the fairways were hit 56.27% of the time, making it a more challenging course as it ranked 13th. In 2018 and 2017, it ranked 14th, so hitting fairways is essential. Last year’s winner Cameron Smith was T-41st in Driving Accuracy, which wasn’t but the year before, it was important and one of the keys to why Matt Kuchar won in 2019 as he ranked T-4th in driving accuracy. Kuchar was also great in strokes gained tee-to-green he was 3rd along with being 7th in strokes gained approach-the-green. Now last year’s winner Smith wasn’t that great as he was 30th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 53rd in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. We are going to give Smith the benefit of the doubt since the winds were so high.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the great weather.
In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something that all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 15 of the 19 were in the top-12 while seven of the 19 were in the top-three. Last year Cameron Smith let us down as he ranked 20th in Greens’ hit. But the previous year, 2019, Matt Kuchar showed the importance of this stat, hitting 60 of the 72 greens to lead the field and becoming the third winner since 1997 to lead that stat (John Austin in 1998 & Jimmy Walker 2015). So our second category is Greens in Regulation, last year the course was the 14th hardest on tour.
Next is Par Breakers since Waialae had the 23rd most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,269 and the 24th highest in Eagles with 34. Now the high winds brought these totals down, in 2019, the number of birdies made was 1,643 and the 4th most eagles on tour with 56. So with the lack of wind and dry fairways, you can see you better make a lot of birdies and eagles.
Last is par 5 scoring average. Typically a course with just two par-5s wouldn’t be on our list. But last year, the par 5 18th hole was the 6th easiest on the PGA Tour with a 4.334 average, while the other par 5, 9th, was the 33rd easiest hole on tour with a 4.511 average. In total, the two par 5s accounted for 471 birdies and 32 eagles. Another way of looking at it, there were 10 par 4s on tour in 2020 that had a higher average than Waialae’s 18th hole. Last year in the four rounds, Cameron Smith was 6 under on the par 5 while Matt Kuchar was 8 under in 2019.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This stat shows who it’s the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 31st in greens hit

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Par 5 scoring average: This shows which course has the easiest par 5s to score on.

128 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.