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Si Woo Kim and Kevin Na – The poster children for why fantasy golf is so hard

The last two winners on the PGA Tour have won before, a matter of fact, Si Woo Kim won the 2017 Players Championship, while Kevin Na has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour for 20 years now and has won five times.  But how many of you regularly think of the two?  Frankly, Na is always on my radar scope on short, tight courses or venues that are very firm, and you get a lot of roll, like desert courses.  As for Kim, since joining the PGA Tour in 2016, yes has won three times now but only has 20 top-tens in 164 starts, so he isn’t a person that has any real consistency.  The bottom line is despite the win, most of us aren’t going to think much of Si Woo Kim.  This is a flexing problem in fantasy golf.  Yes, we can predict the times that Na will win, the Sony Open victory was no surprise to me.  But when your looking at so many golfers, Na sometimes gets lost.  As for Kim, nothing I can say other than he may go the rest of the year with only one or two more top-tens and won’t contend for a while.

Is Tiger finished?

Another surgery for Tiger Woods and we have to wonder, how many good years he has left?  Last year, Tiger was 6th in the World Rankings, we thought he would again be a world-beater.  But after finished 4th at the Hero World Challenge, which was six weeks after he won the Zozo Championship, Tiger finished T-9th at the Farmers and has not been in the top-30 since.  With his fifth back surgery again, you have to wonder how much can Tiger endure?  Guess he will be back in time for the Masters, but we have not seen a very good Tiger in the last year and have to wonder if he has any more gas left in the tank.  How do you feel about Tiger?

What’s up with Jordan Spieth?

When Jordan Spieth won the British Open back in 2017, I thought he would continue his march into being one of the best golf players.  Afterward, he lost a playoff at the Northern Trust and was runner-up at the Dell Technologies Championship.  In 2018 he finished 3rd at the Houston Open and Masters, but after finishing T-3rd at the PGA Championship in 2019, Spieth has struggled with his game and not contended since.  It’s easy to see why he was struggling. When he came out on tour in 2013, he had a golden putter, in a way, it reminded us of when Ben Crenshaw started on the PGA Tour in the mid-1970s. Spieth is probably the best young putter since Crenshaw.  On top of that, he was very good looking, fun to watch, and seemed fun to be with. He was that all-American boy that every father wanted his daughter to meet and marry.  He was the type of image the PGA Tour or any sport wanted its player to be, and we thought that there would be no limit to how high Spieth could travel.

But the biggest problem that strikes all of these young kids that find instant success on the PGA Tour, they don’t perfect what they came out with but try to change things to make them play even better.  In the case of Spieth, he wasn’t long and tried to get longer on the tee.  But what happened to Spieth is his game started to get erratic, first off the tee and then with shots into the greens.  In 2015 when he won two majors, Spieth was 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 15th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, and 11th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.  But over the years, things got worst.  In 2019 he was 176th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, 157th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and 145th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.  The only saving factor he was still 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting.  Despite him making some gains in his play from tee to green in 2020, he ranked 105th in Strokes Gained Putting as his game slipped to a new low as he ranked 107th in the FedExCup standings.  Since he was a junior golfer, Spieth has always been a loyal guy working with just one coach Cam McCormick.  Many wondered if maybe he should take his game elsewhere to have a different set of eyes look at his swing.  It was rumored that Spieth started working with Butch Harmon, who was one of the best swing coaches in the game.  But those rumors were just that.  Yes, if someone shows up on the Rio driving range in Las Vegas, Butch will look them over and give his opinion on what needs to be done, but past that, Butch is retired from the day to day grind of helping players get better.  In the case of Jordan and Butch, all Jordan was looking for was validation from Butch that he was on the right path with his longtime coach, Cameron McCormick.  That is the good news, but the bad news is that Jordan is searching for some answers, and as he makes his first start since finishing T-38th at the Masters in November, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.  We haven’t heard a peep from Jordan since he cleared up the reasons he was with Butch.  Now we don’t know what the actual discussions were between Butch and Jordan, but I wouldn’t be surprised to know a bit or two about Butch if he didn’t say to Jordan to try and go back to what made you successful in 2015, ’16 and ’17.  Remember what good things happened and how easy it was. Just try to return to the part of his life.  Jordan is planning on playing at the Farmers, followed by the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am and the Genesis Invitational, and I would say that by mid-February, we will all see if he is regaining that old form or if he is going to struggle in 2021.  As for this week, I am on a wait and see what happens because he has shown some success at Pebble and Riviera, and we could see some good things come out, but first, he has to get by this week at Torrey Pines.

What about Brooks Koepka?

Boy talk about change, lot’s of change with Koepka.  First, we are finding out that Koepka split with swing coach Claude Harmon III just after the Masters.  They had been together since 2013, but Brooks felt things weren’t working.  There is no indication of who Koepka is working with now, in past years, he has also seen Pete Cowan, who is more a short-game coach but has also given advice to Brooks on his swing.  Pete and Brooks did work together for a bit before the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, in which Koepka was runner-up.  Now Koepka has said he has no problem with his knee, last week at the American Express, he told media that “it’s basically fully healed.”  Still, he missed the cut at the Amex and came into San Diego looking for some answers.  One thing that could come out from the Farmers, rumors have Koepka switching clubs with a possible contract with Cleveland/Srixon.  Over the years, Koepka has never been very loyal to the equipment he played with.  When he turned pro in 2012, he was a Titleist guy, playing with woods, irons, and balls.  Things changed in 2016 when Koepka signed an equipment deal with Nike to use 13 clubs, but this all changed the following year when Nike got out of the equipment world, and Koepka switched to TaylorMade woods Mizuno irons.  At the same time, he went back to Titleist Vokey wedges and Titleist ball.  But for the first time, Koepka used a set of Srixon irons last week at the American Express, so we are just waiting to see what happens.  Still, with this news, it’s only common sense to say that maybe we should wait a bit and see how Koepka figures things out so that he can return to playing the type of golf we know he can do.  Change in life is challenging, and changing equipment is something that takes a bit to get used to.

One other player to be using new clubs in 2021

Jason Day has been with TaylorMade since 2006, but that streak seems to have ended.  According to Golf Digest, it seems that Day will start the year without a contract and will tee it up at the Farmers with a mixed bag of clubs.  Day will use a Ping driver, TaylorMade woods, Mizuno Irons, Artisan wedges, and an Odyssey putter.  So it will be interesting to see how Day also progresses, and I will say it’s probably best not to choose him this week.

Tour’s been fortunate weather-wise

It was amazing to hear how the Sony Open in Hawaii had to scramble to move their tee times up to complete play.  It seems that a big storm was approaching Honolulu, and they were able to finish play, despite some bits of rain.  The next day and for several days, Hawaii has seen a lot of rain, to the point that they have witnessed landslides and damage.  Still, the tour got out of town in the nick of time.  Now, this happened again in all places, Palm Springs.  If there is one thing that you can count on and that is for a great day when golf is played at LaQuinta in January.  If you have never been there, PGA West, the American Express home, is situated in the neck of a mountain range that prevents the rain that comes from the west.  It could be storming 130 miles away in Los Angeles. As a matter of fact, it could be raining 20 miles away in Palm Springs but sunny at LaQuinta.  For last week’s American Express, they had four days of great weather, but things caught up on Monday as Palm Springs woke up to snow. Yes, a couple of inches fell and probably would have prevented play from happening if it fell a day earlier.  As for this week, the weather won’t be the best.  It’s going to be cold, won’t get above 63, and rain is supposed to fall on Thursday and Friday.  On Monday, high winds canceled the pro-am, and because winds reached 60 mph, the course was closed to all players who couldn’t even practice.  Things got back to normal on Tuesday as the course reopened and players were able to practice.

One last thing, hard to believe a U.S. Open will be played at Torrey in six months.

I was astonished to see how weak the field was.  With the U.S. Open being played in just six months, you would think players would want to scope it out.  Brooks Koepka told Golf Channels Rex Hoggard that on Tuesday that his primary motivation to play this week is to get an early look at Torrey Pines.  But playing the course early doesn’t mean instant success.  In 2019 Gary Woodland won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and didn’t play five months earlier in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  The same with U.S. Open runner-up Brooks Koepka.  The same with Graeme McDowell in 2010 he never played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am the same year he won the U.S. Open at Pebble.  The same with Tiger Woods in 2008, he didn’t play in the Farmers but still won the U.S. Open. Now Tiger did win the 2000 AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am and the U.S. Open five months later, and Jack Nicklaus accomplished the Pebble double in 1972, winning the Old Bing Crosby Pro-am and the U.S. Open.  So I guess there is no rhyme or reason and probably why many marquee players didn’t show up at Torrey this week.  It kind of makes sense, even Marc Leishman told Hoggard that the course would probably be totally different when the U.S. Open is played in June.

Course information:

• Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California
• South Course (Home Course) – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,765
• North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,258
• Last year the South course was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.53 average.  The North Course was the 33rd hardest course, playing to an average of 70.57.
• Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957.  In the 80s, both courses were revamped with all new greens with the work done by the city.
• The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957, with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra, and a local pro, Don Gillett, the first to play it.  Five months later, the North Course opened.  Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.
• The two courses were Leo Calland’s brainchild, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course.  When he got permission, Bell came in and covered over the blacktop and could use the excess concrete to roll fairways on a flat site.  The lure of both courses after they opened was the views of the ocean on every hole.  Both courses sit atop of bluffs overlooking the Pacific. These views were seen a couple of years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of their matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead, and Doug Sanders.
• A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home.  Since the tournament was first played in 1952, it never really found a home.  It was played on several different courses, but in 1968 it would embark on a significant change.  It decided to copy several west coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams, who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show.  They also needed financial support and asked for the city to use Torrey Pines free of charge.  It was a match made in heaven.  The course proved very popular not only with the pros but the TV audience that watched it.
• Since then, Torrey Pines has been the home of the tournament, although every year, rumblings were heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.
• After the 2001 Buick, the South course went through an extensive revamping process.  With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones, adding a lot of length to the course.  With the changes, the course could stretch to 7,700 yards, although the PGA Tour played it below that figure.  Though Jones didn’t change the course’s routing, he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes, moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes.  With all the changes, it brought some bite back to a course which 50 years ago was considered very difficult by the touring professionals.  Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years, and the winning score in 2002 of 275 was along with two other years the highest winning score in 20 years.  The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media, and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines, and that was such a big success that in 2021 the USGA would return the Open to Torrey.
• To get ready for the 2021 U.S. Open, course architect Rees Jones returned after the 2019 event to get the course prepared by making numerous subtle changes.  $14 million was spent to renovate and strengthen the course by installing a new irrigation system.  They also resed every tee, redid every bunker, and redid the areas around all 18 greens without doing anything to the greens. The most striking alterations come on the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make it harder to drive in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.  So the changes will add more of a premium on accurate driving, but another thing the changes did was add another 67 yards to the course, making it play to 7,765, which is not only the longest course on tour but the first course to venture over the 7,700-yard mark.  As one pro Beau Hossler said to Tod Leonard of the San Diego Tribune last year:
• “They’re kind of seemingly taking away the easy holes and turning them into moderate holes.  So, basically, there are no easy holes out here when you play it all the way back.”  So it will be interesting to see how much harder the course will play, of course, if the weather is perfect like predicted, scores will be low, and we may never know until either next year’s Farmers or when the U.S. Open is played on the course.
• The North Course was redone in 2016 and proved to be about a shot and a half easier than the South.  Still, in many people’s minds, the North is more scenic and more fun to play.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the South Course at Torrey Pines:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from 2021.
The event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one round data from the North Course.
The scoring average of the Torrey South Course field in 2020 was 72.53, and it was the 7th hardest course on tour. In 2019 was 71.73, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. That is the first time that the South Course played under par since 2001, when it played to an average of 71.82. Days after that event, bulldozers came in, and the course was completely renovated for the 2008 U.S. Open by Rees Jones. So why did the course play so easily in 2019? Weather, it couldn’t be better, warm all four days with wind under 10 mph each day. With that, Justin Rose was able to shot 21 under par, the lowest winning score since Tiger Woods shot 22 under in 1999. Of course, the wind is always a factor, in 2018, with low temperatures the first three days and winds gusting up to 25 mph, the scoring average was 72.81, the 8th hardest course for the year. In 2017 it was windy each day, and the average was 72.77, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016, when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. That year, they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, so that is the reason for the change. 73.066 has been the south course average since 2015, but the overall tournament average has been 72.27. That’s because one round is played on the North Course, which has been a layup in past years, but the course had some changes done to it. Last year the north course played to a 70.57 average, while in 2019, it played to a 69.84 average, which was down, again because of the excellent weather conditions. Yes, the course was changed in 2016, which has made it a shot tougher, but the course has historically been about two shots easier.
Our course key is based on the South Course, which underwent another renovation before the 2020 event as it gets ready for the 2021 U.S. Open. There have been numerous subtle changes on the south course, but the most striking alterations were made to the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make it harder to drive in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.
Still, with the course lying on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, mother nature always plays its part with possible fog this time of year, rain, and wind. For this year, temperatures will be mild in the low-60s each day, and rain is in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Hard to believe that it can rain in San Diego, though it was sunny 365 days a year. The weather gets better on Saturday and perfect on Sunday, but it’s not going to be warm as the high will only be 61 degrees. The good news, winds will be light, 12 mph on Thursday and Friday, and below 10 mph over the weekend, so expect good scoring.

In looking at the stats for Torrey South last year, driving is essential. Last year it ranked 21st on the PGA Tour in driving distance but 8th in driving accuracy. This stat has always been important, it also ranked 1st in 2019 and ’18, and since 2014 it hasn’t ranked over 9th inaccuracy. So you think that you have to drive it straight to play well on the South Course? Not really, in looking at all the champions of the Farmers going back to 1997, only three were in the top-ten in driving accuracy. Phil Mickelson was T-7th in 2000, Ben Crane was T-8th in 2010, and Justin Rose was T-8th in 2019. But in looking at the driving distance, it’s a different story. Of the 22 winners since 1999, 13 of them were in the top-11 as last year’s winner Marc Leishman was T-34th, but 2020 winner Justin Rose was 11th. So driving is essential, the combination of hitting it far and straight.
Another vital stat is proximity to the hole, both for those that hit the fairway. Last year the field hit an average of 37 feet, 10 inches to the hole, making it the 9th hardest on tour. As for rough proximity, the course was 4th hardest, with the field hitting it an average of 48′ 11 inches. So with hitting into the fairway and hitting it far, our second important stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. Last year’s winner Marc Leishman was 5th, the same as 2019 winner Justin Rose. But the difference, Leishman was T-14th in greens hit while Rose was 2nd.
Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. In 2020 it ranked 2nd hardest as it’s always in the top-ten, matter of fact, the greens were the hardest to putt in 2017 and 2016. Several factors have made Torrey Pines the most challenging greens to make putts inside 10 feet over the years. The main reason that this stat is so extreme is the fact that the greens are Poa Annua, and since it’s close to the ocean, the greens are hard to judge and tend to get bumpy, especially late in the afternoon. Last year Leishman was 28th making 44 of 51 attempts inside ten feet. The year before, Justin Rose was T-39th in that stat, completing 46 of 53 putts. But in 2018, Jason Day shined in this stat, ranking 1st in the field making 49 of 51 tries for the week.
Our last category is scrambling manly because of its history, in which lots of greens are missed, and Torrey is adamant about getting it up and down. Last year it was the 4th hardest, but in previous years it was the 15th hardest in 2019, in 2018 it was 19th, but in 2017 it was the 5th hardest, the year before it was 2nd and over the previous six years, the course had been in the top-ten in this stat every year. As for winner Marc Leishman, he was T-4th in this stat on the 20 greens he missed he got up and down 15 times.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you have to hit the driver off of most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat before 2018 it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top-ten on tour between 2011 and 2017. But in 2018 it ranked 19th and last year it was 15th.

147 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

To look at the stats of all 147 players, hit this link.

Of the 156 in the field, 145 have played at least once in the Farmers.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the Farmers since 2010:

• Brandt Snedeker is -74 under in 42 rounds playing 11 years
• Marc Leishman is -66 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Charles Howell III is -64 under in 40 rounds playing 10 years
• Jason Day is -51 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Jon Rahm is -43 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Tony Finau is -38 under in 24 rounds playing 6 years
• Bubba Watson is -38 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is -33 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• J.B. Holmes is -31 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Gary Woodland is -28 under in 37 rounds playing 10 years
• Phil Mickelson is -27 under in 30 rounds playing 10 years
• Rory McIlroy is -26 under in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Ryan Palmer is -26 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Jhonattan Vegas is -26 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• Rickie Fowler is -24 under in 34 rounds playing 11 years
• Pat Perez is -22 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• Nick Watney is -22 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Adam Scott is -19 under in 4 rounds playing 1 years
• Patrick Reed is -19 under in 19 rounds playing 5 years
• Talor Gooch is -19 under in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Jimmy Walker is -19 under in 36 rounds playing 11 years
• K.J. Choi is -18 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Scott Stallings is -18 under in 28 rounds playing 9 years
• Harris English is -17 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• John Huh is -15 under in 33 rounds playing 9 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Ryan Palmer is -21 under, playing 2 years (-10.50)
• Jon Rahm is -29 under, playing 3 years (-9.67)
• Talor Gooch is -15 under, playing 2 years (-7.50)
• Justin Rose is -36 under, playing 5 years (-7.20)
• Jason Day is -28 under, playing 5 years (-5.60)
• Tony Finau is -28 under, playing 5 years (-5.60)
• Hideki Matsuyama is -25 under, playing 5 years (-5.00)
• Joel Dahmen is -10 under, playing 2 years (-5.00)
• Keegan Bradley is -23 under, playing 5 years (-4.60)
• Gary Woodland is -20 under, playing 5 years (-4.00)
• Mackenzie Hughes is -8 under, playing 2 years (-4.00)
• J.B. Holmes is -20 under, playing 5 years (-4.00)
• C.T. Pan is -12 under, playing 3 years (-4.00)
• Brandt Snedeker is -20 under, playing 5 years (-4.00)
• Marc Leishman is -19 under, playing 5 years (-3.80)
• Harris English is -18 under, playing 5 years (-3.60)
• J.J. Spaun is -9 under, playing 3 years (-3.00)
• Cameron Smith is -15 under, playing 5 years (-3.00)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jon Rahm – $11,300
• Rory McIlroy – $11,000
• Tony Finau – $10,700
• Xander Schauffele – $10,400
• Patrick Reed – $10,100
• Harris English – $9,800
• Sungjae Im – $9,600
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Viktor Hovland – $9,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,200
• Matthew Wolff – $9,100
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,000

The folks at DraftKings has given us a lot of good choices this week.  First, you have Jon Rahm at $11,300.  Now this man owns this course as you can see in four years he has a win, a 2nd a T-5th, and a T-29th as he is 43 under par on this course.  Normally I would say he is a good pick but I have to sit back and watch him this week.  Now he may be the winner in June when the U.S. Open is played but this week I feel he won’t play up to his standards.  Remember this is a guy that hurt himself last week and was unable to play in the American Express (unless he was fibbing which I doubt).  On top of that, he is still playing with new Callaway clubs and balls, a change that has come in the last month so I say take a pass on Rahm. As for Rory McIlroy at $11,000 the course is perfect for Rory, think he can win not only this week but in June.  Yes, he still has that lingering last round problem, it showed up in Abu Dhabi when he shot a final-round 72 but I think it’s only a matter of time before he works that problem out.  Know it’s not just the last week or last month, this has been going on for about a year now, but only a matter of time before Rory really goes crazy and plays well all the time.  So yes he is worth the money this week.  I also think Tony Finau is worth the $10,700  In six starts he has a T-4th and a pair of T-6ths, yes Tony has the same disease as McIlroy in not closing it out in the final round but there has to be a time in which Finau walks into a victory, which will open up the flood gates for him.  So pick him this week.  On the other hand, I say no to Xander Schauffele at $10,400.  I don’t know if it’s because it’s played in his hometown or he just can’t play at Torrey Pines but in five starts he only made one cut, T-25th in 2019.  He just can’t seem to play well on the course and I don’t think that will change this week so pass on him.  On top of that, he has told Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he is still suffering and battling symptoms of COVID-19 that he got in mid-December, which in a way troubles me.  Patrick Reed at $10,100 is a question mark, in five starts his best was last year with a T-6th.  Just don’t think his game is right at the moment, he did miss the cut at the American Express shooting 68-75.  Harris English at $9,800 is worth looking at, he has mixed results at Torrey but was runner-up in 2015.  Still, he has played well including winning at Kapalua a few weeks ago so I say he is good at that price.  Sungjae Im at $9,600 is another good buy.  He hasn’t shown us much in this event, but still, his game is good right now.  Can’t say the same with Brooks Koepka who is $9,400 and has struggled not only on this course but with his game.  We wrote about all of his challenges including breaking with his coach and playing with new clubs this week, take a pass on him.  Viktor Hovland at $9,300 is a question mark on this course, I say he is a toss-up but I won’t take him.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,200 is a question mark, he did finish T-3rd at Torrey in 2019 but has had mixed results.  He has been up and down with the putter in his last two events, I say no on Hideki.  Many like Matthew Wolff at $9,100, he was T-21st last year in his first try and think he can do well at Torrey.  Think he is ok with Poa greens but hasn’t played well in his last three starts including a T-40th last week in the American Express.  Again a toss-up for me, I go on the side that he will be ok.  Last is Scottie Scheffler at $9,000, think he is too much money for a guy that missed the cut at year at Torrey plus missed the cut last week in the American Express.

Here is our new feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Farmers Insurance on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Farmers starts.  One last thing, in all these years, each participant had to play three different golf courses, with four different amateurs, so the task was a lot harder:

• Charles Howell III made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Tony Finau made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,700.
• Kevin Tway made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Beau Hossler made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Jon Rahm made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,300.
• Cameron Davis made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Talor Gooch made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Brandt Snedeker made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Gary Woodland made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• John Huh made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Harris English made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Marc Leishman made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Hunter Mahan made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Martin Laird made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Adam Hadwin made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Bubba Watson made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Patrick Reed made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,100.
• Scott Piercy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Lucas Glover made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Camilo Villegas made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Matt Jones made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Grayson Murray made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• J.J. Spaun made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Ryan Palmer made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Si Woo Kim made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Cameron Tringale made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• J.B. Holmes made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Nick Watney made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• John Senden made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Robert Streb made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Rory Sabbatini made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Billy Horschel made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Pat Perez made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Many will consider Si Woo Kim a good pick at $8,900.  Sorry, I disagree and will not pick him, he will be tired after his win and hasn’t played well at Torrey.  Looking for someone that could be good and surprise many.  Try Bubba Watson at $8,800.  I say he can surprise you, his last three starts were T-4th at Zozo Championship, T-7th at CJ Cup, and 57th at the Masters.  But I like how consistent he has played at Torrey Pines, in nine starts has made eight cuts with four top-tens, including a T-6th last year.  So take him and don’t think he will disappoint you.  I am on the bubble over the defending champion Marc Leishman at $8,700.  His record is ok at Torrey and he was T-4th in his last start at Sony Open.  I like Adam Scott at $8,300, he played it only once in 2019 and was runner-up, think the two courses that suit his game, was T-21st at Sentry and T-41st at Sony Open.  Now you talk about feelings, think that Francesco Molinari at $7,800 could be a great pick.  Yes in four starts missed the cut twice and his best finish was T-14th, but his game seems to be coming around, he was T-8th last week at the American Express and didn’t play well on Sunday.  His price is right and think he is ready to pounce and this could be the week.  Corey Conners at $7,700 is cheap enough and despite only one try at Torrey, a T-29th in 2018 has made his last six cuts so that helps thinking he will make the cut.  Talor Gooch is also a good buy at $7,600, he has made cuts at Torrey and finished T-3rd in 2019.  Also, you have Jordan Spieth at $7,600 I say no just too many things that he needs to do this week and I don’t think he will be around for the weekend.  How can you not take Charles Howell III at $7,500.  The price is low and he has made 17 of 17 cuts that Torrey, plus he has eight top-tens.  Still, he had a remarkable cut streak at the American Express and missed the cut, dare say I don’t think he would do that two weeks in a row, so take him.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Max Homa at $7,400 is good, he was T-9th last year at the Farmers, was the first-round leader last week at the American Express before finishing T-21st.  After that we are scraping the bottom of the barrel, ok Adam Hadwin at $7,200 can make the cut and get you some points.  I say no to anyone thinking of taking Phil Mickelson, even at the price of $7,200 he just has not played well at Torrey since they made the course changes over a decade ago.  Lucas Glover at $7,100 is a good shot at making the cut, in 15 goes at Torrey has stuck around for 72 holes, ten times.  Russell Knox at $7,000 and make the cut and gain you some points.  There is also Brandt Snedeker at $7,000, he has won twice at Torrey and was T-3rd last year.  The reason his price is so low he has missed his last three cuts and we’ve got to wonder if that won’t happen this week considering he has made 12 cuts in 14 starts.  Also, Harry Higgs at $6,900 is worth a try, he finished T-9th last year and plays well on Poa greens, and in his last start was T-32nd at Sony Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open

The key stat for the winner:

• The South course can be stretched to over 7,750 yards but don’t look for that length although some tees will be back.  Driving will play an important role this week, fairways will be wet with very little run.  Look for those that do well in the total driving stat, the one that combines both distance and accuracy.  In the past couple of years, the course has prided itself with heavy U.S. Open rough which makes it tough to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway.  Last year the south course was 4th in rough proximity while in 2014 and ’15 the course was the hardest course on proximity to the hole and in 2016 it was 2nd.  Last year players in the rough averaged getting it 48 feet, 11 inches to the hole.  See the same happening this year, so it’s best to keep it in the fairway.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The course was revamped and toughened 19 years ago plus the renovation since the 2019 event so you know it has a “U.S. Open feel” to it.  In past years this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on as between 1992 and 2008 all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen in 1995.  Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011.  Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012, but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winner’s circle.  In 2015 Jason Day won, but it would be seven months later before he won his first major at the PGA Championship.  In 2019 Rose won and he is a major champion so you have to look at those that have won majors as players with an added edge.
• One record that got broken in 2017 was Jon Rahm winning.  It was Rahm’s first start in the Farmers and he had never won before on the PGA Tour so he killed two birds with one stone, a first time PGA Tour winner and a Farmers rookie winner.  Now Rahm joined two others to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.  The last rookie PGA Tour winner was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake, who in his fifth Farmers start won on the PGA Tour for the first time.  He joined Greg Twiggs who in 1989 playing his second Farmers won his first PGA Tour victory so in the 67 year history of the Farmers there are three first-time PGA Tour winners at the Farmers.  But that leaves one record left to Rahm, kind of.  Rahm is the only player to win the Farmers on his first start, unless you count the fact that Ted Kroll did the same thing in 1952.  The only thing, Kroll was playing in the first Farmers event so in a way you really can’t count that since it was the first one, so Rahm is the holder of one of the most unique records on the PGA Tour.
• Greens that will be classified as “bumpy” and may play a role in determining the champion.  Now people who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen.  Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua has crept back into almost 99% of the greens.  With that, if it tends to get foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy.  Again, patience will be the key here.  There is a reason the greens are the hardest to putt on the PGA Tour and more putts from 3 to 6 feet are missed on it.
• Look at the list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event.  Look for the player who can get it up and down to win.  Last year it may of ranked 4th, in previous years it ranked 5th in 2017 while in 2016 it ranked 2nd in scrambling.  In 2015 it ranked 10th, and in 2014 it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top-ten seven of the last eleven years.
• One round is played on Torrey North, a course that this year will be 507 yards shorter than the South.  In 2016 it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course.  Last year it was two shots easier.  To win, the player needs to play great in his round on the North.  Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North Course, and except for six years, they have shot in the 60s with 21 of the 35 shooting 67 or under.  Last year Marc Leishman shot 68 on the North Course in his first round.  In 2019 Justin Rose shot 63 on the North Course to begin the tournament.  In 2018 Jason Day shot 64 on the North Course while in 2017 Jon Rahm shot 69.  In 2016 Brandt Snedeker shot 70. In 2015 Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven-under on that course and 2 under on the South Course.  So look for the champion to go low on the North Course
• Before Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, and Brandt Snedeker won, this was a great bit of Farmer’s trivia.  Before Crane’s 2009 victory 15 of the previous winners had “California ties”  going a step further, 25 of 63 winners had either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California,  You may wonder why this stat is important?  Poa annua is a grass found mostly in California that gives those that play and know the grass a special advantage, so that’s why it’s important.
• The weather is not going to be a chamber of commerce for San Diego, as it’s going to be cloudy with rain possible on Thursday, rain falling all day on Friday with a sunny Saturday but cloudy Sunday.  Each day will be cold right around 60 degrees each day.  The good news, other than the 14 mph winds on Friday, the other three days will be below 10 mph.