Waste Management Phoenix Open
February 4th – 7th, 2021
TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ
Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,261
Purse: $7.5 million
with $1,350,000 to the winner
Defending Champion:
Webb Simpson

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Scottsdale, based on data from last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from 2021.
The scoring average of the field on TPC Scottsdale last year was 70.32, so with par being 71, that means the average score was a bit more than a quarter of a stroke under par, making TPC Scottsdale the 18th hardest course to score on in 2020.
In looking at the stats for TPC Scottsdale from last year, driving and greens hit are essential. With fast fairways, the course ranked 34th in driving distance (out of 38 courses, so that means that four courses saw drives further) and 17th in driving accuracy. Going a step further of the eight TPC courses used on the PGA Tour in 2020, the only TPC course harder to get into the fairway was TPC Harding Park. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens our most important stat, last year, the course ranked 19th in greens in regulation. Still, over the course of the previous 12 years, all of the winners have been in the top-13 in greens hit, taking it a step further of those same champions nine of them finished in the top-four, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner Webb Simpson hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T-6th. Now the previous year, 2019, Rickie Fowler won the event hitting 52 greens and ranked T-13th. We can give Fowler a pass when you consider the poor weather in the final round with heavy rain during most of his round, which drove the final-round scoring average to 71.58 and led Fowler to shot 74, the highest final round by a winner on the PGA Tour since Steven Bowditch’s 74 in winning the 2014 Valero Texas Open. In Phoenix’s final round, Fowler hit 11 greens, which was the reason for his high ranking. Fowler ranked 19th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green with the bad weather and all the highest of the last couple of winners. Going back a year to Gary Woodland in 2018, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2017 winner Hideki was 18th in driving distance, T-6th in driving accuracy, and T-2nd in greens in regulation, finishing 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The year before 2016, Matsuyama also won and was 35th in driving distance, T-44th in driving accuracy, and 1st in greens hit. This added up to 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so you can see the importance in this stat since the last three of the four winners have been either 1st or 2nd. Last year Webb Simpson was 44th in driving distance, T-3rd in driving accuracy, and T-6th in greens in regulation, finish 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
So our first category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which is crucial for not only keeping the ball in the fairways but hitting greens and getting it close to the hole. Again the stats for most of the last 12 players make this stat work, except for 2019 when Fowler struggled in poor weather.
Our second category is proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year’s winner Webb Simpson was T-9th in this category, hitting it 35 feet, 1 inch away. Again forget the fact that Rickie Fowler in 2019 won and was 46th in this stat. In 2018 the champion Gary Woodland was 13th. In 2017 the winner Matsuyama was 2nd, his average shot finishing 31 feet, 1 inch away. When he won in 2016, he was 8th, his average shot finishing 35 feet, 10 inches away. For TPC Scottsdale, it ranked 5th in proximity to hole.
After that, our third important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies are important. Last year Webb Simpson was 2nd best in the field, making 21. TPC Scottsdale had 1,473 birdies and was T-17th in birdie average. In 2019 Rickie Fowler was the best in the field, making an eagle and 23 birdies, in 2018, Gary Woodland was the best in the field as he made one eagle, and his 26 birdies were the best of the week. The previous year Matsuyama was 12th in this stat as he had 19 birdies and an eagle.
Our last category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-makers delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 17th out of 34 courses, while Webb Simpson ranked 14th. In 2019 winner Rickie Fowler was T-8th, 2018 winner Gary Woodland was 25th. The previous year Matsuyama was 17th in scrambling.
So you can see that this isn’t a bomber’s course since accuracy is such a key. Another important thing is that the weather is good, and the only problems stem from freezing mornings in which frost creates delays. This year things will be different, the forecast is as close to perfect as you can get. Temperatures in the mid to low 70s with minimal winds each day will create excellent scoring for the week.
So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at TPC Scottsdale:
*Strokes gained tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how TPC Scottsdale ranked T-12tht in this stat, meaning that a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens hit is important
*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 19th, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, TPC Scottsdale ranked 5th as the players averaged getting it 39 feet and 10 inches.
*Par Breakers: Desert courses always seem to give up a lot of birdies and eagles, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 19th in that stat. Making birdies and eagles at TPC Scottsdale is hard.
*Scrambling: Of the 41 courses on tour in 2020, TPC Scottsdale got it up and down 57.11 of the time, meaning that it ranked 17th. So it’s important for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.
125 of the 132 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year and last:
Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.
# | Name | *Strokes gained tee-to-Greens | *Proximity to hole | *Par Breakers | *Scrambling | Total Rank All Categories |
DraftKings Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Russell Henley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 9 | 19 | 64 | 4 | 96 | 8200 |
2 | Justin Thomas (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 6 | 71 | 1 | 69 | 147 | 10800 |
3 | Webb Simpson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 43 | 79 | 20 | 5 | 147 | 10100 |
4 | Ryan Palmer (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 34 | 62 | 2 | 51 | 149 | 9200 |
5 | Chris Kirk (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 31 | 40 | 51 | 61 | 183 | 7500 |
6 | Emiliano Grillo (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 48 | 7 | 78 | 52 | 185 | 7300 |
7 | John Huh (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 27 | 54 | 63 | 50 | 194 | 7200 |
8 | Austin Cook (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 69 | 25 | 94 | 18 | 206 | 6500 |
9 | Harris English (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 53 | 150 | 8 | 8 | 219 | 9300 |
10 | Russell Knox (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 38 | 21 | 142 | 21 | 222 | 7200 |
11 | Si Woo Kim (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 25 | 129 | 69 | 9 | 232 | 8100 |
12 | Carlos Ortiz (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 75 | 65 | 34 | 59 | 233 | 7800 |
13 | Charley Hoffman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 50 | 36 | 64 | 84 | 234 | 7000 |
14 | Jon Rahm (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 5 | 130 | 17 | 99 | 251 | 11200 |
15 | Xander Schauffele (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 8 | 193 | 5 | 46 | 252 | 11000 |
16 | Sepp Straka (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 55 | 104 | 30 | 63 | 252 | 7100 |
17 | James Hahn (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 86 | 54 | 47 | 75 | 262 | 6800 |
18 | Daniel Berger (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 68 | 115 | 10 | 72 | 265 | 9600 |
19 | Corey Conners (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 28 | 34 | 28 | 176 | 266 | 7900 |
20 | Brian Stuard (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 66 | 19 | 82 | 99 | 266 | 6400 |
21 | Joel Dahmen (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 86 | 36 | 46 | 98 | 266 | 6800 |
22 | Tom Hoge (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 103 | 53 | 35 | 79 | 270 | 6500 |
23 | Sam Burns (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 15 | 35 | 25 | 200 | 275 | 7700 |
24 | Will Zalatoris (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 4 | 168 | 84 | 34 | 290 | 9000 |
25 | Stewart Cink (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 102 | 91 | 15 | 85 | 293 | 6800 |
26 | Talor Gooch (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 72 | 146 | 66 | 10 | 294 | 7600 |
27 | C.T. Pan (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 101 | 47 | 129 | 20 | 297 | 6500 |
28 | Brian Harman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 81 | 71 | 80 | 67 | 299 | 8000 |
29 | Kyle Stanley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 56 | 11 | 136 | 99 | 302 | 6700 |
30 | Brooks Koepka (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 58 | 49 | 75 | 123 | 305 | 8800 |
31 | Brendan Steele (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 65 | 25 | 74 | 141 | 305 | 7400 |
32 | Martin Laird (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 76 | 82 | 70 | 87 | 315 | 7000 |
33 | Harry Higgs (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 96 | 29 | 16 | 177 | 318 | 6700 |
34 | Sungjae Im (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 46 | 146 | 31 | 96 | 319 | 9400 |
35 | Byeong Hun An (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 26 | 62 | 160 | 76 | 324 | 7300 |
36 | Rory McIlroy (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 19 | 200 | 12 | 104 | 335 | 10600 |
37 | Xinjun Zhang (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 94 | 84 | 133 | 32 | 343 | 6300 |
38 | Harold Varner III (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 23 | 115 | 120 | 86 | 344 | 6700 |
39 | Doc Redman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 91 | 33 | 167 | 53 | 344 | 6600 |
40 | Luke List (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 24 | 120 | 53 | 154 | 351 | 7200 |
41 | Camilo Villegas (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 44 | 62 | 111 | 134 | 351 | 6100 |
42 | Hideki Matsuyama (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 21 | 181 | 77 | 78 | 357 | 9800 |
43 | Scott Stallings (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 74 | 71 | 213 | 2 | 360 | 6500 |
44 | Patton Kizzire (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 104 | 111 | 26 | 120 | 361 | 7000 |
45 | Vaughn Taylor (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 120 | 6 | 193 | 47 | 366 | 6300 |
46 | Keegan Bradley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 11 | 49 | 133 | 174 | 367 | 6900 |
47 | Chez Reavie (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 42 | 8 | 178 | 140 | 368 | 7000 |
48 | Pat Perez (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 150 | 80 | 97 | 41 | 368 | 6600 |
49 | Kevin Streelman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 79 | 49 | 66 | 178 | 372 | 6800 |
50 | Charl Schwartzel (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 84 | 150 | 59 | 81 | 374 | 6800 |
51 | Bo Hoag (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 113 | 134 | 108 | 23 | 378 | 6700 |
52 | Wyndham Clark (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 78 | 207 | 43 | 56 | 384 | 7100 |
53 | Matt Jones (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 143 | 130 | 98 | 16 | 387 | 6900 |
54 | Cameron Tringale (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 80 | 123 | 47 | 138 | 388 | 6900 |
55 | Adam Schenk (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 105 | 126 | 107 | 55 | 393 | 6400 |
56 | Henrik Norlander (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 32 | 84 | 133 | 152 | 401 | 7500 |
57 | Ryan Armour (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 166 | 18 | 85 | 135 | 404 | 6400 |
58 | Jamie Lovemark (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 161 | 54 | 129 | 65 | 409 | 6200 |
59 | Sebastian Munoz (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 62 | 159 | 36 | 154 | 411 | 7100 |
60 | Zach Johnson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 92 | 47 | 114 | 162 | 415 | 7400 |
61 | Matthew NeSmith (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 39 | 111 | 85 | 187 | 422 | 6500 |
62 | Robby Shelton (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 71 | 144 | 125 | 82 | 422 | 6300 |
63 | Erik van Rooyen (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 73 | 84 | 99 | 173 | 429 | 7000 |
64 | Scottie Scheffler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 88 | 187 | 32 | 122 | 429 | 9100 |
65 | Bubba Watson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 3 | 162 | 113 | 158 | 436 | 8500 |
66 | Satoshi Kodaira (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 170 | 71 | 139 | 58 | 438 | 6000 |
67 | Aaron Wise (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 33 | 211 | 76 | 127 | 447 | 7100 |
68 | Rickie Fowler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 67 | 94 | 81 | 209 | 451 | 8600 |
69 | Adam Long (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 161 | 84 | 119 | 94 | 458 | 7100 |
70 | Brian Gay (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 212 | 84 | 49 | 120 | 465 | 6100 |
71 | William McGirt (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 142 | 14 | 99 | 211 | 466 | 6000 |
72 | Ted Potter, Jr. (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 127 | 23 | 151 | 169 | 470 | 6200 |
73 | Denny McCarthy (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 124 | 141 | 170 | 39 | 474 | 6600 |
74 | Dylan Frittelli (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 106 | 171 | 153 | 48 | 478 | 6900 |
75 | Nick Taylor (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 202 | 162 | 88 | 26 | 478 | 6800 |
76 | Jason Dufner (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 152 | 27 | 210 | 90 | 479 | 6200 |
77 | Sam Ryder (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 140 | 17 | 167 | 156 | 480 | 6500 |
78 | Mark Hubbard (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 155 | 60 | 149 | 119 | 483 | 6600 |
79 | Brice Garnett (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 200 | 104 | 136 | 43 | 483 | 6100 |
80 | Cameron Champ (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 47 | 200 | 37 | 201 | 485 | 7600 |
81 | Louis Oosthuizen (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 82 | 200 | 161 | 44 | 487 | 8900 |
82 | Matthew Wolff (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 110 | 123 | 51 | 207 | 491 | 8700 |
83 | Padraig Harrington (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 14 | 204 | 180 | 99 | 497 | 6200 |
84 | Andrew Putnam (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 157 | 134 | 184 | 34 | 509 | 6300 |
85 | Scott Brown (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 177 | 71 | 192 | 80 | 520 | 6100 |
86 | Michael Thompson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 168 | 150 | 58 | 145 | 521 | 7200 |
87 | Troy Merritt (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 146 | 111 | 211 | 57 | 525 | 6200 |
88 | Billy Horschel (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 145 | 228 | 115 | 40 | 528 | 8400 |
89 | Brendon Todd (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 187 | 187 | 53 | 116 | 543 | 7400 |
90 | Hudson Swafford (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 210 | 98 | 99 | 146 | 553 | 6200 |
91 | Rory Sabbatini (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 111 | 211 | 40 | 203 | 565 | 7300 |
92 | Nate Lashley (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 181 | 94 | 197 | 93 | 565 | 6300 |
93 | Adam Hadwin (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 137 | 176 | 146 | 111 | 570 | 7300 |
94 | Max Homa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 139 | 207 | 68 | 168 | 582 | 7900 |
95 | Jason Day (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 89 | 193 | 171 | 133 | 586 | 7800 |
96 | J.B. Holmes (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 178 | 104 | 70 | 238 | 590 | 6400 |
97 | Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 154 | 167 | 142 | 128 | 591 | 6100 |
98 | Robert Streb (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 213 | 176 | 91 | 112 | 592 | 6200 |
99 | Matt Kuchar (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 140 | 181 | 131 | 150 | 602 | 7700 |
100 | Will Gordon (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 180 | 154 | 45 | 226 | 605 | 6300 |
101 | Tyler Duncan (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 109 | 198 | 190 | 116 | 613 | 6400 |
102 | Lucas Glover (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 51 | 179 | 198 | 192 | 620 | 6700 |
103 | Patrick Rodgers (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 117 | 197 | 125 | 186 | 625 | 6600 |
104 | Keith Mitchell (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 159 | 137 | 178 | 151 | 625 | 6400 |
105 | Richy Werenski (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 190 | 186 | 149 | 107 | 632 | 6600 |
106 | Danny Lee (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 122 | 120 | 177 | 217 | 636 | 6400 |
107 | Jordan Spieth (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 176 | 223 | 60 | 184 | 643 | 7500 |
108 | Beau Hossler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 206 | 223 | 95 | 126 | 650 | 6300 |
109 | Gary Woodland (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 203 | 130 | 99 | 220 | 652 | 8300 |
110 | J.T. Poston (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 165 | 207 | 109 | 183 | 664 | 6900 |
111 | Sean O’Hair (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 188 | 141 | 206 | 135 | 670 | 6000 |
112 | Grayson Murray (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 184 | 60 | 191 | 240 | 675 | 6100 |
113 | John Augenstein (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 85 | 162 | 230 | 214 | 691 | 6200 |
114 | Scott Harrington (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 179 | 219 | 139 | 172 | 709 | 6100 |
115 | Bo Van Pelt (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 228 | 58 | 207 | 224 | 717 | 6000 |
116 | Michael Kim (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 201 | 159 | 205 | 159 | 724 | 6000 |
117 | Luke Donald (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 204 | 70 | 227 | 225 | 726 | 6100 |
118 | Kevin Tway (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 171 | 168 | 198 | 194 | 731 | 6000 |
119 | Steve Stricker (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 218 | 216 | 117 | 197 | 748 | 6300 |
120 | Hunter Mahan (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 241 | 174 | 188 | 195 | 798 | 6000 |
121 | Kevin Stadler (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 229 | 140 | 240 | 208 | 817 | 6000 |
122 | Tom Lewis (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 189 | 232 | 220 | 179 | 820 | 6500 |
123 | Martin Trainer (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 236 | 236 | 203 | 198 | 873 | 6000 |
124 | Jimmy Walker (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 231 | 230 | 218 | 215 | 894 | 6100 |
125 | Sung Kang (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD) | 230 | 226 | 204 | 235 | 895 | 6200 |
Sal – do you ever go back and do a postmortem on how the recommendations panned out?
Raz,
Picking golf tournaments is a flawed act. A lot of people do it, but very few if any get it right. When we started GolfStats we designed it so instead of people having to look at flawed picks, they would have the tools to make their own decision. My picks are nothing more than window dressing for the tools that you should use to make your picks. So that is the reason we don’t do an autopsy of my picks because that’s not what the preview is about.