Riviera Key Fantasy Stats

Genesis Open

February 18th – 21st, 2021

Riviera C.C.

Pacific Palisades, CA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,322

Purse: $9.3 million

with $1,674,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Adam Scott

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on Riviera’s most important stats, based on data from last year’s Genesis Open, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021.
The scoring average of Riviera’s field last year was 71.26, it ranked the 10th hardest on Tour. Now, what controls this is the weather. Of course, when one thinks of a tournament being played in Los Angeles, they think of great weather and nothing but sunshine. Many people believe that all the pros play in sunglasses to protect their eyes from the sun’s glare, but that’s not the case. Riviera is located in Pacific Palisades, which is just outside of Los Angeles, and the course is on top of a hill about a mile from the Pacific Ocean. So during the day, it could be 85 degrees 15 miles away in Downtown Los Angeles and 65 at Riviera. Despite what you may think of Los Angeles in mid-February, the weather can be venerable, last year, the weather couldn’t be better. But in 2019, when the scoring average was 71.20 (ranked 10th), it was rainy the first two days as all for days it never got warmer than 62, and over the weekend, the winds blew between 10 and 25 mph. Same with 2018, when the scoring average was 71.76, and the course ranked 9th hardest. Now it doesn’t have to rain to make it play tough. In 2015 the course played hard, the average was 72.59 (ranked 5th hardest course for the year) as the course was dry and fast with high winds during the tournament playing havoc for the players.
The good news is that for this year, just like at Pebble Beach, the weather at Riviera is going to be perfect a bit cold with temperatures in the high 60s and winds in the ten mph range, but sunny skies all four days and no chance of rain. The one thing that this doesn’t help is short hitters as the ball won’t fly as long.

In looking at Riviera’s stats, last year, Greens hit and driving accuracy are critical and a key to playing the course well. The course ranked 2nd in greens hit, which is about the norm for any year of perfect weather. Last year it ranked 10th in 2018, it was first, while in 2017, it was 5th hardest on Tour. In driving accuracy, the course was the 4th last year, while in 2019, it was the 12th hardest, which was the highest since 2011 when it ranked 11th. In 2018 it was the 5th hardest, and in 2017 the 10th hardest on Tour. One thing that is important for Riviera is getting the ball close from the fairway; Riviera was 4th in Proximity to Hole, the same rank for the last three years. It ranked T-6th in 2017 and 5th in both 2016 and 2015. So we see that players that are good from tee to green have a distinctive advantage.

Putting also showed that you have to putt well. The reason for this, Riviera has probably the most problematic greens for players to putt on. With Poa Annua and close to the ocean, the greens along with Pebble Beach last week are probably some of the bumpiest on Tour. That is why last year, the course ranked 3rd on the PGA Tour in putting inside ten feet. In 2019 it ranked 2nd, while in 2018, it ranked 4th in putting, while in 2017, it was 7th, it was 2nd in 2016, and 3rd in 2015. Last year it ranked 2nd in putting from 4 to 8 feet on the PGA Tour while 3rd in 2019, 6th in 2018, 4th in 2017, 2nd in 2016 and 2014 while it was 1st in 2015. So it makes sense that putting is probably the 2nd most crucial stat for the players. Just look at the last nine winners, not the best of putters but players that are great from tee-to-green.

So how did the winner Adam Scott do last year? He was two shots better than Matt Kuchar, Scott Brown, and Sung Kang and three shots better than Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Joel Dahmen, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau. So how did Scott win? He wasn’t as good as others have been off the tee as he hit only 23 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-63rd, but he hit 52 of 72 greens, which ranked 1st. In Proximity to the hole, he was T-18th and was T-33rd rough Proximity. This is the big reason why Scott won, it wasn’t due to putting. In Strokes Gained Putting, he ranked 27th at Riviera. In putts from 4 to 8 feet, he ranked T-40th and was 51st in putts inside 10 feet. Scott was good in birdies making 21, to lead that stat, and it translated to 2nd in Par Breakers.

So let’s see how 2019 champion J.B. Holmes won. He floundered off the tee hitting 29 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-59th. But like Scott, he was good at hitting 52 greens to rank T-2nd. But the key for Holmes winning was his putter. He dispelled his reputation of not being a great putter when Holmes was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting for the week. In putting from 4 to 8 feet, he was 3rd, and in the inside 10 feet range was 10th making 61 of 68 putts in that range. So let’s see how Bubba Watson won the Genesis in 2018. He was two shots better than Kevin Na and Tony Finau. So how did Watson win? He was good from off the fairway, Watson was T-7th, hitting 46 of 72 greens and was 9th in Proximity to hole. He ranked T-27th in fairways hit. In Par Breakers, he was 1st making an eagle and 20 birdies. Talking about birdies on the three par 5s, he played them in 8 under par, since 1997 only five champions played the par 5s better.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Riviera:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: A way to gauge how players save shots from tee to green. Important because Riviera is a “shot-makers” course, and those that are good from tee to green tend to do well at Riviera. Now the rough isn’t harsh at Riviera, but hitting the 5,000 square foot greens is tough.

*Proximity to hole: Important to see who gets the ball close from off the fairway. In a way, this is even more important than greens hit because the greens at Riviera are big enough that hitting them doesn’t make as much sense as getting the ball close.

*Putting inside 10 feet: In 2012 & ’15, Riviera had the most challenging greens to putt on for the year. In 2013, ’14, ’16, and ’19, they were the 2nd hardest on Tour. Last year it ranked 3rd. Players are sometimes puzzled by the greens, which get bumpy and very hard to read in the afternoon. So making those putts are crucial in winning.

*Par 5 scoring average: Two of Riviera’s three par 5s are easy to get home in two and score well on. The longest of them is 17th, and most of the time is played downwind, thus making that hole a birdie hole. The winner will do good on the par 5s.

117 of the 121 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.