BlogPuerto Rico Open Preview and Picks

Things you need to know about the Puerto Rico Open

This will be the 12th Puerto Rico tournament got started in 2008.  This has always been a tournament about second-tier players, giving opportunities to those that didn’t qualify for the WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession.  This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player to get himself full status with a win.  Unfortunately, the winner gets just about every Adelaide that is given to a regular winner except for one important invite, to the Masters.  Augusta won’t extend an invite to the winner in Puerto Rico this week.  Another snub, the new Ryder Cup list won’t include money earned this year.

Course information:

• Grand Reserve Country Club
• Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
• 7,506 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Don’t let the name fool you, Six years ago, this course was named Trump International.  But that was in name only, Trump just managed things, and when the property went into bankruptcy, so did the Trump name.  The course has a 77.7 rating and slope rating of 135 from the championship tees. The course is public and also sells local memberships.
• Last year Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 70.64 and was the 31st hardest course on tour. In 2015 this course was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 72.570 average (high average due to high winds all four days).
• The course is part of a 36 hole complex that was built in 2004 by Tom Kite.  The championship course, which is the lakes and ocean nines, is used for the championship. The 18 hole is flat, with 13 of the 18 holes having water in play for the professionals.  There are 62 bunkers, and the greens are 6,000 square feet, which is average size.  The course has a special grass on it, SeaDwarf Paspalum, which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low qualify of water to survive.  The course is very tough for the average player, while it’s very manageable for the pros that will play it this week.  Since the course has opened, it’s gotten the reputation as the best course in Puerto Rico.  What makes this course play tough is the weather.  If it’s windy, then the course will play tough.  This year weather will play a factor this week, it will be warm with temperatures in the low 80s, with no rain.  But the winds will kick up as each day will see an average of 18 mph wind.

DraftKings tips

It’s back to a regular tournament, and I will say this.  With the field the way it is, the course playing tough, one of the biggest items you should think about is picking six guys that will make the cut.  This will be the hardest event in 2020 to pick players who will participate in four rounds.  So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Florida, and players that have done poorly out west may all of a sudden find their game on Bermuda greens heat, humidity, and wind.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Thomas Pieters – $11,400
• Matt Wallace – $10,800
• Emiliano Grillo – $10,600
• Ian Poulter – $10,400
• Branden Grace – $10,100
• Andrew Putnam – $9,900
• Byeong Hun An – $9,700
• Tom Lewis – $9,500
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,400
• Jhonattan Vegas – $9,300
• Brandon Wu – $9,200
• Greyson Sigg – $9,100
• Justin Suh – $9,000

What makes this event so tough is that a good amount of the players in the field, the average betters, have never bet on them.  We also had to be careful, a Thomas Pieters or a Matt Wallace or Emiliano Grillo could struggle on the PGA or European Tour, but this week can shine.  So the key is to find guys that aren’t playing bad, they just can’t keep up on the PGA Tour, players that do well on a course with lots of wind.

Right off the bat, have to decide on Thomas Pieters who is top dog at $11,400.  The first problem, he has never played in this event and has no history.  The good news, Pieters has been very consistent on the European Tour.  I know he was big on quarantining during the pandemic in Belgium, which set him back.  Now he has been very consistent, he has only missed two cuts in his last 23 starts.  But this isn’t about making cuts, if we pick Pieters, to need a top-five.  His last win was the Czech Masters in 2019, and in his last start was T-10th at the Saudi International.  So I think we have to pass on Pieters.  Next up, Matt Wallace at $10,800 has the same problem, no history in this event.  Just like Pieters, Wallace makes a lot of cuts, 17 in his last 19 starts.  But his last start was a cut at the Saudi International.  He has shown signs of glory in the last nine months, he was T-7th at Abu Dhabi, 2nd at the Scottish Championship, and T-4th at the Memorial.  So the question, is he worth the gamble?  I can go either way on him, but the bottom line the $10,800 can be spent wiser.  One wise move is to take Emiliano Grillo at $10,600.  He was T-3rd in this event in 2020 and runner-up in 2015.  Yes, he has been inconsistent on the PGA Tour, he missed the cut at the Genesis but was T-22nd in Phoenix.  His best finish in 2021 is a T-8th at Mayakoba, which has many of the same characteristics as Grand Reserve, so our first choice is Grillo.  Ian Poulter at $10,400 is also a possibility, in two starts was T-3rd and missed the cut.  He has been very inconsistent in 2021 but was T-12th at the CJ Cup and T-18th at the Saudi International.  He also knows how to win, so he is a yes.  Branden Grace, at $10,100 has no record at Grand Reserve and been inconsistent since the Pandemic has made just ten cuts in 21 starts, best finish was T-8th at the DP World Championship, Dubai.  He also played at the Genesis in the wind and finished T-20th, so he is a toss-up.  Andrew Putnam at $9,900 is another guy with no history in this event, and even worst, has missed the cut in seven of his last eight cuts, so run for the hills on him.  Byeong Hun An at $9,700 has never played in this event, boy is this getting old. The good news is that he has made his last three cuts, was T-8th at the American Express, and he could give you a top-ten, but he is an expensive person for maybe getting a top-ten, so I say no to him.  Tom Lewis at $9,500 has played once in Puerto Rico and missed the cut.  He has been inconsistent in 2021, missing five cuts in eight starts but had a T-14th in his last start at Pebble.  Still, his price is too high to take a gamble on him.  Patrick Rodgers, at $9,400 has played twice and finsihing in the top-35.  He too has struggled in 2021, missing six of his last eight cuts, but he was T-17th at Mayakoba and T-12th at Genesis, so the question is he too high a price?  I say he is worth the gamble.  Jhonattan Vegas at $9,300 is the first Puerto Rico “regular,” playing this event five times, making four cuts and his best finish was T-9th in 2020.  Brandon Wu is $9,200 and I question how he is so high since he never has played in Puerto Rico and is now on the Korn Ferry Tour.  Yes, he was T-2nd at the Orange County Championship and last week was T-14th at the Lecom Suncoast.  Draftkings is pricing him on finishing T-2nd at the Albertsons Boise Open and winning the Korn Ferry Championship.  But both of those events were in August, he is a no for me.  Greyson Sigg at $9,100 is maybe, he has never played in Puerto Rico, but on the Korn Ferry has finished in the top-15 in seven of ten starts.  He was T-7th at the Lecom last week, so we have to pick him based on the fact that he has gotten better in the last few months.  We have Justin Suh at $9,000 who is also a no because they are giving him the high value because he finished T-14th at Corales Puntacan and T-8th at the Shriners.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Honestly, I think the winner will come out of this batch of players.  In looking last year’s winner Viktor Hovland had a salary of $11,400, but runner-up Jose Teater was $7,000.  Hey, Kyle Stanley who was T-3rd was $7,600, and Sam Ryder was $7,800, so this just goes to show, these are the folks you seriously have to look at.  Ollie Schniederjans at $8,900 is someone to think of, he played in 2019 and was T-49th.  But what I like about Schniederjans is that he was 3rd in the Bermuda Championship and was close to the lead last week at the Lecom Suncoast, shot 74, and finished T-14th.  Sam Ryder is $8,500, he was T-3rd last year and yes, has struggled this year, missing eight cuts in 12 starts.  But he did finish T-10th at Farmers, so maybe coming back this week to Puerto Rico will bring on some good play.  Tosh Teater is $8,000 and was 2nd last year.  Despite some up and downs since, he has made his last three cuts, so maybe that is a good sign.  Josh Bramlett is $7,900 and he was a player who had some hot prospects once he got his PGA Tour card.  He was T-9th last year in Puerto Rico and made his last two cuts, someone to think of.  The same with Cameron Percy at $7,600.  He has played in Puerto Rico seven times with a best finish of T-14th.  Like that he has made the cut a lot in this event, but he has been ok in 2021, was T-8th at Corales Puntacan and T-21st at Pebble, I think he should be one of your best picks.  Then we have to great $7,500 picks, Xinjun Zhang and Aaron Baddeley.  Zhang was T-14th last year but has struggled in 2021.  Baddeley has also suffered in 2021 but in Puerto Rico was T-6th in 2016 and T-2nd in 2019.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat, I like Scott Brown at $7,300.  Yes, in 2021, he has missed the cut in seven of eleven starts.  But what you are taking in Brown is his great play in Puerto Rico.  In eight starts, he has made eight cuts and has a win in 2013, a T-5th in 2012 and 2016, and T-10th finishes in 2015 and ’19.  Even last year, he made the cut, and despite finishing T-67th you have to think he has this course wired.  Roberto Castro at $7,000 is a great choice, He hasn’t played much in 2021, but his record in Puerto Rico is a five for five in making cuts with a T-14th last year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what key stats is important at Grand Reserve?  Players that hit it long tend to do better, but the course is a bomber’s paradise.  Because of the high winds that hit the course, hitting greens is tough, last year it was the 26th hardest in greens hit, in 2019, it was 18th, in 2017, it was 49th, in 2016, it was 26th, in 2015, it was the 20th hardest while in 2014 it was the 38th hardest.  In looking at all the stats other than driving distance, nothing else stands out.
• There is no rhyme or reason to winning this event.  Since it’s a second-tier event, it’s a combination of a PGA Tour and a Korn Ferry Tour.  So there are no real favorites because there are no true marquee players that you know of.  One thing of the past winners, done of them achieved great success on the PGA Tour, so this is for many just a stepping stone to get full-time access to the PGA Tour.  Yes, Tony Finau was the winner in 2016 but hasn’t won since, and last year Viktor Hovland broke the mold by winning in Puerto Rico and winning again on the PGA Tour at Mayakoba.
• Since 2013, they collected stats, hard to find what type of player wins.  So the key is to look at two things, first past results on this course and how they are playing going into the event.  One thing about the winners is that they hit many greens, and five of the last seven were in the top-ten in Greens in Regulation.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.