BlogWGC-Workday Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So after a short seven-week stay on the West Coast, the tour moves east a week earlier than usual.  Instead of making a trip south of the border to Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship, the tour was forced to move that event to Florida.  Seems that the section of Mexico City where Club de Golf Chapultepec is located would not issue a permit to hold the tournament because of COVID so the Tour had to change the location.  It’s a shame after many players were very apprehensive in holding the event down there starting in 2017, things changed.  They loved the course and the hotel which they stayed in and most of the players had a positive experience there.  So hopefully the hope is to return to Club de Golf Chapultepec next year.

For many they were surprised at the venue they are switching to.  The tour preferred relocating to Florida which could accommodate an event in this COVID era.  They also had to be careful not to go to a course that would interfere with their events in Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville.  They were able to find a very unique Club on the west coast of Florida, The Concession Golf Club.  It’s a privately owned establishment which since its opening in 2006 was hoping to be the venue of a major championship.  The club is about 20 miles northeast of Sarasota and is considered one of the most demanding courses in the United States.  The club got its name from the fact that Tony Jacklin got involved with some people that wanted to build a high-end course.  Jacklin was just getting into course design and talked the developers into hiring Jack Nicklaus to co-design the course with Jacklin.  At the same time, Jacklin wanted to recognize Nicklaus’s sporting gesture from the 1969 Ryder Cup when Nicklaus conceded Jacklin’s final putt which resulted in a tie between the teams and a moral victor for the underdog Europeans.  So that is the premise of “The Concession.”

The course is perfect for a tournament that will bring in every great active player in the game.

So what does the move mean?

The one aspect of the move to Florida is how much it changes the character of golf courses.  Players will go from lots of Poa Annua and plush fairways in the desert to Bermuda greens and robust Rye rough in Florida.  On the whole, the weather has been pretty much been perfect, but now in Florida, they will experience hotter temperatures, humidity, and lots of wins.  Playing courses like Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale, Torrey Pines, Waialae, PGA West, and Riviera will be different compared to The Concession, PGA National, Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, and Innisbrook.  For players like Harris English, Joaquin Nieman, Kevin Na, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Ryan Palmer, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, and Max Homa who have experienced a great couple of months on the west coast there are no guarantees that the good times will continue.  As an example look at Genesis champion Max Homa, who was born, raised, and lives outside of Los Angeles he finished the last two weeks T-7th at Pebble and won Genesis.  But he isn’t what you would call a Florida guy.  In his eight-year PGA Tour career, he has only played in six Florida events missing the cut in four of them and his best finish was a T-20th at the 2019 Honda Classic.  Homa is playing this week since he got into the WGC-Concession due to his Genesis win, but honestly, even with him playing well, I won’t bet on him.  The same with Tony Finau who was runner-up at the Genesis and Farmers along with a 4th at the American Express, he has struggled in Florida.  In 14 starts he only has made five cuts and his only top-20 finish was a 5th at the 2017 Valspar Championship.  The same with Kevin Na who won the Sony Open, since 2016 he has played in 11 Florida events missing five cuts, and his best finish was T-22nd at the 2016 Valspar.  So you can see that these players aren’t looking forward to the move.  In the history of the west coast swing, we have seen our share of players that have done great on the west coast and struggle the rest of the year.  Going from courses in California to courses in Florida is like going from night today, it’s totally different and in the coming weeks, we will see players that have played terribly over the last two months shine, while we will see players that have had a good run all of a sudden starting to struggle.  One example of a player that could shine in the coming weeks is Rickie Fowler. We know he has been in a one-year slump, but in 39 Florida starts he has won twice and finished in the top-ten, ten times.  Watch for players like Marc Leishman, Webb Simpson and Sungjae Im to all of a sudden be on the top of leaderboards.  Even Europeans like Francesco Molinari, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyrrell Hatton seem to shine in Florida and will be on leaderboards in the coming weeks.

Things you need to know about the WCG-Mexico championship

• For those on the PGA Tour, this will be the first World Golf Championship of 2021; the WCG-Workday championship at The Concession will be a 72-hole, stroke-play event with a limited field of 72 players.  It will include the top-50 players in the World Golf Ranking plus the top-30 from the FedEx Cup point list from 2020, the top-10 of the 2020-21 FedEx Cup standings, the top-20 from the final 2020 Race To Dubai, and the top-10 from the 2021 Race to Dubai standings.  Also the top-2 from the 2019 Japan Golf Tour, Australasian Tour, Sunshine Tour, and Asian Tour order of merit not otherwise exempt.
• There will be no cut in the 72-hole event, which has a $10.5 million purse with the winner receiving $1.787 million.
• This event started in 1999 when it was played for two years at Valderamma in Spain.  From there it popped around, first to Mount Juliet in Ireland, then Capital City Club in Georgia before returning to Mount Juliet in 2003.  The next year it moved to Harding Park in San Francisco and then back to Europe and the Grove outside of London.  After that, it settled to Doral, after the course lost the Ford Championship at Doral which was on the PGA Tour between 1962 – 2006.  The tournament had a new home in Mexico with Grup Salinas, a collection of companies based in Mexico City primarily involved in retail, television, telecommunications, and other businesses.  The agreement was for seven years through 2023, and even though it’s played this week at The Concession, the plan is to return back to Mexico next year.

Course information:

• The Concession Golf Club
• Bradenton, Fl.
• 7,564 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course was conceived to be one of the hardest courses in the world, one that could hold either a major championship or either the Ryder Cup or the Presidents Cup.  Nicklaus and Jacklin were given their choice of picking the land the course was on.  The course was the main focus, there are no houses on the course which flow across a variety of landscaping meadows, wetlands, oak hammocks, and pine forests—with spectacular bunkering and exciting green contours.  When the course was finished, it became one of the only golf courses in the US to have the highest possible slope rating from its Championship tees  On its opening in 2006, the Florida State Golf Association, gave The Concession a 155 slope and 77.6 course rating from the back tees, making it very challenging for players.

There is no other course on the PGA Tour like the Concession.  It’s built a lot like the Medalist Golf Club in Hobe Sound, Florida was.  That course was the venue for the Capital One’s The Match back in May.  Both courses tunneled 18 holes through wetlands and cut through forests of tall pines and oaks, not typical of other Floridian courses.  The big difference of the Concession is the greens, which are heavily-contoured greens that are quite severe and marked contrast to any other PGA Tour golf course. Nicklaus had been working on this course at the same time he and Tom Doak were doing Sebonack on Long Island, New York. Jack admitted the small, heavily-contoured greens at The Concession were inspired by those at Sebonack.  It’s been said that of the over 400 golf courses that his company has design, this could have the most severe greens he ever built.  For those on the PGA Tour, they will flashback to a decade ago when the WGC-Dell Match Play was held at Dove Mountain, outside of Tucson, Arizona.  Those greens got a lot of complaints from players, some asking if any elephants had been buried on the greens to create the undulations.  So the greens will present a challenge for players to make sure they correctly place shots to the right quadrant of the greens.  In a way that’s what the players have to address when playing the Masters at Augusta National.  So in a way, players could find themselves with 25-foot putts on the correct side of the hole that are easier to putt over 10-foot putts on the wrong side.  Another thing that will create tough conditions during the whole week is the underground fan system that can pump moisture out of the greens in case of rain.

The course will be played at a par of 72 and just under 7,500 yards.  Water will come into play on ten holes and 71 bunkers are placed around the course.  This isn’t a course that you just rear back and rip it.  Every hole you have to maneuver the drive to the perfect spot to have a good shot at the green.  Holes 5, 10, 13, 15, 16, and 17 players need to be carefully played off the tee as water definitely comes into play on the hole.  There aren’t any “let-up” holes as even the par 5s are demanding.  All of them are reachable in two, but with a lot of gambling.  Two of the four have water hazards that play a key in the ability to make eagles and birdies.  The two that aren’t affected by water, both on the front nine have are loaded with hazards, especially the 7th hole which plays right around 600 yards but in order to get home, the second shot has very little room to maneuver shot to the green.  As for the par 4s, only three will play over 450 yards.  Still, all of them are demanding from off the tee to shots played into the greens.  Now there are two short par 4s, at 8 and 12.  Both are well built and feature nice pitch shots, be interesting to see especially on the 12th hole if the tour moves up the tees and lets the players go for the green. It’s a realistic gamble but worrisome because the middle of the fairway is so heavily bunkered that will make it hard for the players to get home. The par 3s will be challenging as they will be between 177 yards to 234 yards.

As for player reaction, I will say they won’t like the slopes on the greens.  This kind of player reaction was one of the reasons the Match Play event wasn’t a big success at Dove Mountain.  Still, it will create a good challenge for the week and should be entertaining for people to watch on TV.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at The Concession Golf Club:

Because the PGA Tour couldn’t get a permit to play the WGC-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec due to coronavirus, they have had to move the event. It’s a shame, the fact is that after the apprehension of going to Mexico City for a tournament four years ago, players have now gotten used to it and loved the course. Hopefully, the event will return to Mexico next year.

This year, the tour has moved the event to The Concession Golf Club, just outside of Sarasota, Florida. Now the Jack Nicklaus design course isn’t that well known, but insiders say it’s one of the country’s best courses. Since its 2006 inception, it has received numerous awards and accolades, including Golf Digest’s best new private course in America award in 2006 and No. 1 in the Tampa Bay Business Journal’s most challenging courses in the Tampa Bay area every year since 2013. The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, but it did serve as the host venue for the NCAA Division I Men’s and Women’s Golf Championships in 2015, the first year that men and women played on the same course in back-to-back weeks. SMU’s Bryson DeChambeau won the men’s individual title that year while LSU captured the men’s team title over USC.

The little we know about the course is that it presents challenges with undulating, slick greens where correct placement on the green right quadrant will be imperative. It’s similar to what players face at Augusta National for The Masters each year. So everything you remembered about Jack and the way he did greens, throw it away. This is different. So he went more of a strategic green complex. They’re very sophisticated. And when you look, you have to make logic of it like, ‘Why am I supposed to miss that to the left on 18,’ In a press conference two weeks ago, NBC Sports analyst Paul Azinger who lives in the area, was part of the press day and said of Concession, “a golf course that will eat your lunch.”

The course was conceived to be one of the most demanding courses globally, one that could hold either a major championship or either the Ryder Cup or the Presidents Cup. Nicklaus, along with Tony Jacklin, who helped in the building, were given their choice to pick the land to put it on. The course was the main focus, there are no houses on the course, which flows across a variety of landscaping meadows, wetlands, oak hammocks, and pine forests—with spectacular bunkering and humongous green contours. When the course was finished, it became one of the US’s only golf courses to have the highest possible slope rating from its Championship tees. On its opening in 2006, the Florida State Golf Association gave The Concession a 155 slope and 77.6 course rating from the back tees, making it very challenging for players. So we trust that Concession will create a lot of excitement this week.

Since we have very little data to base our conclusions for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed this week at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. Yes, the name has been changed, and it is a handful. But back to the course and the things to watch for. First will be Accuracy off the tee. Remember six months ago when they held an exhibition match with Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady at the Medalist Golf Club? That course was challenging because they tunneled 18 holes through dense forest, and there was no bail-out. You either it is in the fairway or die in the forest of problems off the tee. The same with Concession, there is no bail-out on any hole, so driving accuracy will be necessary. So our first category is Total Driving The course is not only an excellent driving course but demands great shotmaking to the greens as it takes precious iron play. Remember what I said earlier, the course has the same values as Augusta National, in which you have to put the shot on the green but in the right quadrant, so our second category is Greens in Regulation.

Of course, the greens have many undulations and are well guarded, mistakes will be made, and that puts a lot of skills in getting it up and down from just off the greens. So our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens, which have close to 40 of them around them.
Our last category is Strokes Gained Putting. Remember how tough the greens are, I have a feeling that a lot of pros will go crazy with the severe nature of them. So Strokes Gained Putting is an excellent way in determining how a player does overall on the greens, and since putting will be a key to winning at The Concession I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Total Driving: It adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

The 52 of the 72 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021 (lots of non-PGA Tour members with no stats)

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

To link to the stats of all players in the field

DraftKings tips

It’s nice to be at an event with no cut.  This gives you a good chance to have all players give us 72 holes, so remember the golden rule.  Be sure to pick those that will make lots of birdies and eagles, that will help your point total.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,600
• Jon Rahm – $10,100
• Xander Schauffele – $10,800
• Justin Thomas – $10,500
• Rory McIlroy – $10,400
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000 (Withdrew on Wednesday)
• Bryson DeChambeau – $9,900
• Tony Finau- $9,800
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600
• Brooks Koepka – $9,500
• Viktor Hovland – $9,400
• Daniel Berger – $9,300
• Patrick Reed – $9,200
• Webb Simpson – $9,100
• Collin Morikawa – $9,000

If you were thinking geez a small field event with no cut would be a great week to pick players, your dead wrong.  Because of the lack of a cut, Draftkings puts a lot more folks in that over $9,000 category making it almost impossible to use two guys in that $10,000 range.  A couple of other things to think about, the tour goes from the west coast to Florida, which is a drastic move since it takes a different skill set to play on courses in Florida.  Another thing that we all have to think about, 95% of the field has never seen this course and it’s supposed to be very tough. So there is a big learning curve, a bit like going to a major player on a new course.  For those going to the performance chart, it’s meaningless.  Yes, Dustin Johnson has won three times with the last two in Mexico.  The same with Justin Thomas in his four starts in Mexico he was T-6th, 9th, 2nd, and T-5th.  Those mean nothing, again because he is going to a new course.  So in looking at our players we have to look at a few things.  First of all well does a player do on courses in Florida?  How well does a player do on demanding courses that take a lot of shotmaking.  So it may sound weird, despite Max Homa winning last week in L.A. and Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy missing the cut, you would be better served with Thomas and McIlroy who play well in Florida and on tough courses.  So you get what I am saying, good luck.

Of course, Dustin Johnson is the top dog, but at $11,600 that is a boatload of salary used.  But is he worth it, yes and he should play well.  Jon Rahm is $10,100, has been playing ok but not great.  On top of that has very few results in Florida and his play shows that he struggles so I say no to him.  Xander Schauffele at $10,800 and has been playing well.  Yes, it’s a lot of money but I can see taking him, despite his lack of playing a lot in Florida.  I say yes because he did finish T-2nd at the Players in 2018, showing he can handle a tough, Florida course.  Justin Thomas at $10,500 is a hard choice.  Personal problems have hurt him and it’s not like his game is in shambles, he just isn’t thinking right.  The change to Florida courses, which he has done well on helps him so he could be a good choice that not many people will go with.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,000 withdrew on Wednesday.  On the other hand, Bryson DeChambeau at $9,900 is a toss-up, yes he has played well at the Arnold Palmer and he did win the individual title of the NCAA on this course in 2015.  The only reason I won’t take him, his putting hasn’t been sharp, and think that will hurt him.  Many will jump all over Tony Finau at $9,800, thanks to back to back to back runner-up finishes.  To be honest, if Finau was a stock I would probably short him, just don’t think he will be good this week.  The person I like the most in this price range is Tyrrell Hatton at $9,600.  Did win the Palmer last week and has some other good finishes, to be fair he also has struggled at the Players Championship, and on tough courses, he struggles.  He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and Masters so maybe Concession will be too hard for him.  Tough choice, but I’m going to use him.  Brooks Koepka at $9,500 is another tough choice.  Despite being from Florida his results are very mixed, just one top-ten in his last 16 starts.  Still think he will be good, does very well on tough courses, also putting good now.  Viktor Hovland at $9,500 is a pick, not because of his play on Bermuda, but he plays well on tough courses and he is one of the best on tight courses that you have to hit a lot of greens on.  Daniel Berger at $9,300 is a great choice, plays well in Florida and does well on a tough course, the last time he played he won at Pebble.  Patrick Reed at $9,200 is another good choice, he plays great on courses in Florida and we know how good he is on tough courses.  Webb Simpson at $9,100 is also good, plays hard courses well, and the same on Florida courses.  Collin Morikawa at $9,000 is a no, just not playing well now.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I like Sungjae Im at $8,800.  He had a great run through Florida the last two years and despite not playing well that is a west coast thing that should improve this week.  Now as for Max Homa at $8,600, I say no he just isn’t a Florida type of guy.  Matthew Fitzpatrick at $8,500 is a great pick, plays well in Florida and playing well now.  Also like Adam Scott at $8,200, he is good on Florida courses and his game is good for hard courses.  There is always this one guy that seems to come out of nowhere in these types of events.  This week it will be Will Zalatoris at $8,000, who has been playing well since the break-in June.  He has never played a tournament in Florida on the PGA Tour but in June he played twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in St. Augustine and finished T-3rd and T-6th.  I think Will will shine this week.  Another long shot to watch is Justin Rose at $7,700  He seemed to be playing better in his last two starts and I like that he plays well in Florida.  One other person to watch and mainly because he is cheap is Harris English at $7,500.  He won at the Sentry T of C and just thinks he is ok on Floridian courses.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

It’s really important to find two or three good players under $7,400.  My first choice is Robert MacIntyre at $7,240, has never played in Florida but has been steady the last year, had three solid starts on the European Tour desert stretch in January.  Ryan Palmer at $7,200 is a good choice, plays well in Florida, and has two top-four finishes in his last three starts.  Jason Kokrak at $7,100 is a good bet, has been solid this year and plays well in Florida.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $6,600 and worth it, does well on Florida courses and been steady this year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession

Key stat for the winner:

Lots of patients in learning the course also will take a lot of patients in which birdies are rare and pars are great.  This doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour.

In looking at the long-range weather for the week all four days will be perfect, in the low 80s with no rain, very low humidity, and winds of between 10 and 15 mph.