Bay Hill Key Fantasy Stats

Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 4th – 7th, 2021

Bay Hill Club

Orlando, FL

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,454

Purse: $9.3 million

with $1,674,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tyrrell Hatton

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, based on data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Bay Hill last year was 74.11 and was the hardest course on the PGA Tour. The year before it was the 9th hardest with a 72.38 average. The course is very tough with 103 bunkers and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes. With the rough and hard greens it comes down to the elements and with wind, it makes the course a true brute. For this year it will be very nice Thursday, Friday and Sunday but Saturday has a 75% chance of rain. The wind is only at 10 mph on Thursday and Friday, but over the weekend it increases to 15 mph on Saturday and 16 mph on Sunday, so look for an interesting weekend

In looking at the stats for Bay Hill last year Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Proximity to Hole, and Rough Proximity are important. First, is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, last year Bay Hill ranked 10th hardest in fairways hit, but 1st in greens hit for a T-3rd place ranking in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Last year’s winner Tyrrell Hatton was T-33rd in fairways hit and T-9th in greens hit and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2019 Francesco Molinari was T-3rd in fairways hit and T-6th in greens hit and was 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-te-Green. 2018 winner Rory McIlroy was T-48th in fairways hit and T-45th in greens hit for an overall 7th ranking in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In Proximity to hole in which Bay Hill was 2nd last year, 3rd in 2019, and 13th in 2018, Hatton was 10th last year, Molinari was 18th in 2019 and McIlroy was 1st in 2018. Now in Rough Proximity which Bay Hill ranked 1st last year, 2nd in 2019, and 3rd in 2018, Hatton was 12th last year, Molinari was 15th in 2019, and McIlroy was 32nd in 2018. In our last critical category Putting inside Ten Feet, Bay Hill ranked 16th last year, 32nd in 2019, and 25th in 2018. Hatton was 15th last year in Strokes Gained Putting, as he was 21st in Putting inside 10 feet making 63 of 70 putts. Molinari was 4th in 2019 as he was 16th in Putting inside 10 feet making 60 of 65 putts. As for McIlory, he made his biggest gains in 2018 on the greens, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting as he was 2nd in Putting inside ten feet making 59 of 61 putts.

In looking at the stats for all the winners the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. Just look at this chart of all the winners from 1997 and you can see they either putt lights out and hit the ball subpar, or they hit the ball great and don’t do as well on the greens:

One thing about the greens, they are some of the best on the PGA Tour and with little undulations, lots of putts are made.
Last year Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-34th in total putting. In 2019, Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in total Putting. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches, and in the 56 putts, he had of seven feet or under he only missed one. In 2018 McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the true key for him winning. The same with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the true key for him winning. The same thing with the 2016 champion Jason Day. He was 6th in Strokes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one so you can see that you can not hit the ball that great but win, but it’s easier if you can hit the ball great.

But again, the weather is always the barometer for good play at Bay Hill

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years Bay Hill is always in the top-15, last year it ranked T-3rd.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin with shots from the fairway, last year it was 2nd with each shot ending up 44 feet, 1 inch from the hole.

*Rough Proximity: Average length that a player hits to the pin from out of the rough. Showing how hard the rough is at Bay Hill it was the hardest course to get close to the hole from the rough in 2016, players were only able to average 51 feet, 2 inches on each shot from the rough. Last year it also ranked 1st with the average ball ending up 54 feet, 4 inches from the hole so it’s important to drive it well and keep it out of the rough.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you have to make these putts in order to win. In 2016 Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses ranked, while last year ranked 15th (14th hardest) out of 29 courses so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

114 of the 123 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.