BlogCorales Preview and Picks

The Buzz

This event was played just six months ago, rescheduled from its original date.  When it was played the week after the U.S. Open, it was supposed to be opposite the Ryder Cup.  But that didn’t happen, leaving this event the only event for the week, making it memorable, and giving players the opportunity to get a Masters invite since it was given full-point allocation.  With that winner Hudson Swafford got a Masters invite, but as in Cinderella, midnight has struck, and the girl has reverted to a pumpkin.  The same for the Corales Punta Cana Resort Championship, it’s now opposite the World Golf Championship and doesn’t get the same perks as last September’s event.  Still, the winner will get enough FedEx points to get him deep into the playoffs, and he will receive an invite to Maui for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

On paper, this is a serious event because the second tier of PGA Tour players is on their own, able to make a splash in an event with very few marquee names.  The event is held on the Dominican Republic island, and it’s a place that people go to relax, get lots of sun, go to the beach, and play a little golf.  The course is on the ocean and gets a lot of wind, which makes it challenging.  In looking at the forecast for the week, it will be 84 each day with the wind of 15 to 20 mph coming off the ocean to bring on challenges.

One top of PGA Tour players, those inside the top-10 of the Korn Ferry Points list at the end of 2020, got a spot into this event.  So a lot of players who are looking to be future stars are in this event.  One of them is Puerto Rican Rafa Campos, who made a splash last month by finishing T-3rd in the Puerto Rico Open.  Also in the field is college stars Andy Ogletree and Justin Suh, who are starting their professional careers.

Things you need to know about the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

The Corales Puntacana Championship started as a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2016 and ’17.  In 2018 it changed to a PGA Tour event that would be played in March opposite of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Championship.  This will be the fourth year as a PGA Tour event.

The course is at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic in the town of Punta Cana.  The resort has 45 holes, 27 holes built by P.B. Dye, and 18 designed by Tom Fazio.  The tournament is held at the Tom Fazio, Corales Golf Club.  The course is wide open off the tee, but the green complexes are tricky, and the wind is unpredictable. The final three-hole stretch, ‘The Devil’s Elbow,’ has a dramatic forced carry of the Bay of Corales on 18 and is one of the most idyllic runs of golf on the PGA Tour.

This event gives second-tier players who didn’t qualify for the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship opportunities for playing a tournament this week and gain FedEx Cup points.    Unfortunately, the winner gets just about every award given to a regular winner except one crucial invite to the Masters.  Augusta won’t extend an invite to the winner in the Dominican Republic this week.

Course information:

• Corales Golf Club
• Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
• 7,670 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course is at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic in the town of Punta Cana.  The resort has 45 holes, 27 holes built by P.B. Dye, and 18 designed by Tom Fazio.  The tournament is held on the Tom Fazio designed the course, which opened in 2010.

The course plays along the cliffs, bays, and coves of the Caribbean Sea, with six oceanside holes and the inland holes dotted with lakes and quarries. The course features ever-changing elevations, strategic bunkering, and large, elevated greens.

On the front nine, water comes into play on just the 390-yard, 3rd hole.  The nine also has plenty of other hazards in the form of enormous waste bunkers.  The nine ends with a 175-yard par-three, in which the green sits in a rather exposed position atop of a rocky headland.

The back nine has a dramatic finish.  The last three holes play toward or along the Bay of Corales and are called the Devil’s Elbow. The 501-yard 18th wraps around the water, enticing players to bite off as much of a carry as they dare on the tee shot, but it was the 214-yard par-3 17th that catches players’ attention. It plays along the coast to a narrow green guarded by bunkers on both sides.

The course has a unique grass on it, Paspalum supreme, which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low quality of water to survive.  The course is very tough for the average player, while it’s very manageable for the pros that will play it this week.  Since the course has opened, it’s gotten the reputation as one of the best courses in the Caribbean.

The course is very private, some of its founding members are Mikhail Baryshnikov, Julio Iglesias, and President Bill Clinton.

The course played to a 71.12 average when it was played six months ago and is the 16th hardest course in the 2021 schedule.  The last time it was played in 2019, it had a 71.07 scoring average and was the 34th hardest course.  What makes the course unique is that nine of the 18 holes play over par.  The last three holes all play over par, at the par 4 16th hole played to a 4.081 average.  The par 3 17th played to a 3.129 average, and the par 4 18th played to a 3.975 average.  In past years, the full array of Shotlink stats has not been done, so in looking to find what to look for, we have to look at regular stats.  The one stat that jumps out is driving accuracy, last September, it was the 16th hardest fairways to hit, while in 2019, it was the 44th hardest of 49 courses, so that means that players don’t have to worry about hitting it long and going into rough.  So this will be a bombers course.

Last September, the course ranked the 18th hardest on tour in Greens in Regulation, while in 2019, the course ranked 23rd, so hitting greens is not very difficult.  Around the green sand is a problem as there are close to 50 bunkers around the greens.  Now the course is a resort course, but it’s still a tough test for the players.

In the previous three years it’s been played, the winning score has been the same 18 under total, so we have a benchmark to point to for this year.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Thomas Pieters- $11,100
• Thomas Detry – $10,800
• Emiliano Grillo – $10,500
• Charley Hoffman – $10,200
• Charles Howell III – $10,000
• Jhonattan Vegas – $9,800
• Danny Willett – $9,600
• Nate Lashley – $9,500
• Brandon Wu – $9,400
• Tom Lewis – $9,300
• Brandon Hagy – $9,200
• Lee Hodges – $9,100
• Sam Ryder – $9,000

Thomas Pieters is a regular on the European Tour and at $11,100 is worth the money.  In his first five starts of the year, he has been made the cut and is getting better by each week.  At the Saudi International, he was T-10th, at the Puerto Rico Open was T-15th and at the Qatar Masters was 13th.  So he is a good choice.  Same with Thomas Detry at $10,800, he was T-9th at both the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters.  Of the top-two, I am picking Pieters as being the best, he hasn’t played in this event, while Detry has played at Corales twice, finishing T-33rd both times.  Emiliano Grillo at $10,500 is too high; he just isn’t going to get you the points needed to justify the pick.  Since the start of January, Grillo has made five of eight cuts, and his best finish was T-11th at Puerto Rico.  Charley Hoffman at $10,200 has the same problem, the cost is too high for what you can get.  He has made the cut in his last four starts, best finish was T-7th at Pebble and T-10th at Arnold Palmer.  He played this event in September and was T-14th.  Charles Howell III is at $10,000 and had the worst start of his career.  Still, when it was least expected, he had his first top-ten in eight months with a T-9th at the Players, still Howell missed the cut in September, so best to pass on him.  As for Jhonattan Vegas at $9,800 and worth the price, he was 2nd in Puerto Rico last month.  Playing at Corales, Vegas missed the cut in September and was T-26th in 2019. Danny Willett at $9,600 is a no because his price is too high.  He has never played at Corales and has made the cut lately in events, but his best finish in 2021 is T-16th at Abu Dhabi.  Nate Lashley, at $9,500, has a question mark on him, he isn’t worth the price, but he finished T-5th at Pebble, which makes you wonder, especially when he finished T-4th in September.  But the reason you want to take him, in 2017, he won at Corales when this was a Korn Ferry event.  Brandon Wu at $9,400 is a no because his price is too high.  Same with Tom Lewis at $9,300.  Now you have to consider Brandon Hagy at $9,200, he was runner-up last week at Honda.  But be careful, an great finish the week before doesn’t make him a star, especially when you see how much he has struggled this year and missed the cut at Corales in September.  Now Lee Hodges at $9,100 is worth looking at since he has finished in the top-15 in Korn Ferry and PGA Tour stops over the last month, I still think the price is too high for him.  As for Sam Ryder, at $9,000, I say yes, thanks to his T-8th last week at the Honda.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Luke List at $8,900 could be on many people’s list, he was T-8th at Corales last September but hasn’t played well since.  I like Justin Suh at $8,700, he was T-14th at Corales in September and has done well in LOCALiQ Series Championship of late.  Now a sneaky pick would be Stephan Jaeger at $8,200, his record at Corales is not great, T-26th in 2019 and T-54th in 2018, but like that, he was 4th last week at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open and was T-2nd at Orange County National last October.  He also had a win on the Korn Ferry in July.  Taylor Pendrith at $8,100, is worth it, was great on the Korn Ferry in July and August.  Brice Garnett is worth the $8,000, he won this event in 2018 and was T-5th last month in Puerto Rico.  Chase Seiffert at $8,000 is worth exploring, he was T-3rd at Honda last week and T-15th at Puerto Rico, his problem is consistency.  He was T-41st in September in his only Corales start.  Tyler McCumber at $7,900 is worth the price, he was 2nd at Corales in September and had his moments on the PGA Tour of late.  Greyson Sigg at $7,800 is also one to think of, he has never played at Corales, and despite missing the cut in Louisiana last week and at Puerto Rico, he was playing ok before that.  Peter Uihlein at $7,800 is also on my list since he was 2nd at Louisiana last week.  Last in this category is Fabrizio Zanotti, at $7,500.  I have been very consistent in Europe, was T-14th at the Qatar Masters and T-7th at Abu Dubai.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

Defending champion Hudson Swafford is only $7,200, but he has missed his last five cuts and hasn’t played well since winning Corales in September.  Still, the friendly confines of Corales could help.  Kelly Kraft at $7,100 is the same story he was T-14th in September, T-5th in 2019,, and 3rd in 2018.  The only problem has missed the cut in ten of 15 events since finishing 2nd in the 2019 Barbasol.  Have to also wonder if the good vibes of Corales when he won in 2019 are worth it for Graeme McDowell, who is only $7,100 but is not playing well.  The same is true with Xinjun Zhang at $7,000, T-11th at Corales last September, and T-5th in 2018 but has struggled on the PGA Tour, missing ten of his last 14 cuts.  Last is Rafael Campos at $6,700, he has missed the cut all three times at Corrals but was T-3rd at Puerto Rico and T-7th at the Lecom Suncoast.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what vital stats is essential at Corales Golf Club?  Players that hit it long will do better; the course is a bomber’s paradise.  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason to winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top-stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes, the field does have two major champions playing (Danny Willett, Retief Goosen, and Graeme McDowell), but after that is your Mackenzie Hughes, Charles Howell III, and Pat Perez as your key guys.  But none of them will win because you do need the firepower to overpower the course.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.