TPC San Antonio Key Fantasy Stats

Valero Texas Open

April 1st – 4th, 2021

TPC San Antonio (ATT Canyons)

San Antonio, TX

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,494

Purse: $7.7 million

with $1,386,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Corey Conners

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

So the Valero Texas Open is back after not being played last year due to COVID-19 restrictions. This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from the 2019 Valero Texas Open (won by Corey Conners), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio in 2019 was 71.24, the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In the decade, the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. previously, the course had played hard, in the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is because of the winds, the area is notorious for having winds back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and lack of winds. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot a round tougher than in 2019 as it ranked 12th. In 2017 the course played to a 72.85 average, 10th hardest in 2016 the course played to a 72.21 average and was the 17th hardest course. In 2015, with tough conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on tour. So we can see, TPC San Antonio can be a brute between it being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So weather is always important for the week, and looking at the long-range forecast we can see it’s going to be cloudy every day but won’t rain. The first three days it will be around 70 and on Sunday climb up to 77. Now the winds will blow between 12 and 15 MPH, so it will be tough for the players.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the toughest courses the tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important, in 2019, it ranked 36th out of 46 courses in driving distance on all drives (that means players hit it longer, last year driving distance was shorter than 35 of the courses). So with an average driving of 301.1, players will be hitting it hard and not laying up. What is funny in looking at the list of winners they have a lot of short hitters, their last three champions Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. But on the other end of the spectrum, accuracy is important. You can see those results in fairway accuracy, the course was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average, was 19th on tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so it’s crucial to place drives in the fairway. In 2019 the course was 13th in greens in regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high probably because of all the wind. It’s also something that is expected on this course in past the greens have been very tough to hit, in 2017 it was 3rd, in 2016 it was the 15th hardest, in 2015 it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on tour, and the between 2012 and 2019 all the winners were in the top-17 in greens in regulation with last year’s winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat. So our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. In 2019 the course ranked T-7th as winner Corey Conners 2nd. In 2018 the course ranked T-6th in greens hit, with winner Landry ranking 1st while 2017 champion Kevin Chappell ranking 2nd in this stat, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman was 10th in this stat, and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd.

Like we have seen the last couple of weeks on tour, if you miss fairways you have to scramble well. In 2019, TPC San Antonio ranked 43rd in scrambling out of 49 courses meaning that players tended to get it up and down more than any other tour events. For winner Conners, he was terrible in this stat, ranking 70th and only getting it up and down 30.77% of the time. In 2018 TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd in scrambling on tour, meaning that the pros could get up and down when missing greens. Last year Andrew Landry was 2nd in scrambling, getting it up and down in 15 of the 19 greens he missed.

Another important item in doing well is putting, In 2019, the course ranked 19th in making putts inside 10 feet with an 87.82 average, while Conners lacked in this stat, ranking T-50th making only 65 of 75 putts. Now in 2018, the course ranked 10th in making putts from ten feet and in with an 86.82 average. Again in looking at our profile of the winner Landry, he ranked T-10th in this stat, making 66 of 72 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie average, and it’s hard to imagine but the players only averaged making 3.68 birdies per round as Corey was first making 29 birdies for the week. In 2018 the course averaged 3.41 birdies per round. That ranked it 12th on tour, while Landry won, making 21 birdies for the week, a 5.25 average.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a great barometer on how players’ games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: The average number of birdies made over the course of a round

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2019 with 130 of the 144 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.