BlogValero Texas Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off.  Despite having a great sponsor, this event hasn’t been a marquee stop on the PGA Tour, and for many, they will continue the tradition this week. It doesn’t matter when it’s played, in September, in April, or the week before the Masters, it’s hard to get marquee players year.  Kind of a shame, the course is good and is an excellent test in getting the ball in the fairway and on the greens, which players will be doing next week at the Masters.  Maybe the problem is something simple like the players don’t like the course, or perhaps the wind, which always seems to be around in this event, is a turn-off for players.  The last thing in the world they want to do is play in wind and screw up their swings before a major.  But of the 144 in the field, only 23 are going on to Augusta National.

Is there any Rhyme or Reason for why a player does poorly one week and then the next week or two weeks later win?

What annoys a person in your one-and-done games when a player you pick misses the cut, and then the next week or week later contends and may even win.  This season has seen a lot of that, starting at the U.S. Open.  It was won by Bryson DeChambeau, who caught us off guard because he played so bad in the FedExCup playoffs and then, out of the blue, won the U.S. Open.  Then at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Sergio Garcia won after missing the cut at Safeway Open and the U.S. Open.  Jason Kokrak won the CJ Cup@Shadow Creek a week after missing the cut at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open.  The same with Brian Gay, he won the Bermuda Championship, and you probably didn’t pick him because, in his previous two starts, he missed the cut in Las Vegas and Safeway Open.  At the Vivint Houston Open, Carlos Ortiz won, but in his last five starts, he missed two cuts, and his best finish was T-35th.  This trend continued when the new year showed up, in January, Patrick Reed won the Farmers a week after missing the cut at the American Express.  Then Brooks Koepka shocked us all at the Phoenix Open when he won despite missing the cut in his three previous events and telling us how desperate he was over his game to the point of breaking two sets of irons because his game was so bad.  Daniel Berger showed up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after missing the cut in Phoenix, and guess what, his game was perfect at Pebble that he won that event by two shots.  We know how Collin Morikawa was not playing well before winning the WGC-Workday Concession, just like Justin Thomas and even Billy Horschel.  Hell, Joel Dahmen was coming off a patch in which he missed the cut in six of his last seven starts, and just like that, he finds his game at Corales Puntacan for the win.  In trying to explain this, Dahmen said he wasn’t playing that bad but found out he had a lie loft issue with some of his irons.  Geez, it just goes to show you that all it takes is one minor tweak.

Still, as we move on to Valero and the Masters next week, what does this tell us?  Those guys like Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, who have struggled the last couple of months, will magically find something this week?  I hate to say it, but that is how life on the PGA Tour evolves.  What got me thinking about all of this was the Match Play last week. I am in a one-and-done game in which 36 of us have ponied a thousand dollars for the season, and we pick a player before the start of the week.  We are only allowed one pick, so many strategies are involved, so I thought that I had a great pick at the Players Championship with Scottie Scheffler, and he missed the cut, then two weeks later, he is in the finals of the Match Play.  Now talking about Scheffler, in group play, he won once and tied two matches but still made it to the finals.  Meanwhile, Lee Westwood wins two matches but in a playoff loses on the first hole when Sergio Garcia makes a hole in one. Please show me the justice in that.

But the fact is this is golf, and for those on the PGA Tour, they have to maneuver through all that.  There is such a fine line between winning and missing the cut, it could be as simple as for Dahmen adjusting the loft on his irons.

One thing to watch going into this week’s Valero Texas Open is first that Jordan Spieth is back and firing on all cylinders.  We also saw Matt Kuchar’s reemergence, who has played terribly for the last year, possibly finding his game again.  We will see, but if he has a good week at the Valero, he will be someone along with Jordan Spieth to watch at the Masters.  Others showing upper mobility have to be Billy Horschel, who finished T-2nd at the WGC-Workday Concession and the Match Play win.  Also, watch Brian Harmann. He was T-3rd at The Players and T-5th at the Match Play. Thanks to these finishes, it gave him enough points to climb into the top-50 of the World Rankings, getting him into the Masters.  He is taking the week off but will be at the Masters.  Also, have to watch Sergio Garcia, who has found his putting, and Victor Perez, the Frenchman living in Dundee, Scotland.  Why would a Frenchman who is now making a ton of money living in Dundee, you ask?  Love, his girlfriend Abigail just completed a five-year dental degree and is about to work on her Masters degree at Oxford.  But Perez is very close to gain special temporary membership to play on the PGA Tour, thinking that Dundee would be in his and Abigail’s rearview mirror.  Two others to watch are Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood.

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is a historic tournament; it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf worldwide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour, and the longest held in the same city. In 2012, the competition celebrated its 90th anniversary. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the event has predominantly been hosted by the Brackenridge Park Golf Course, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, Oak Hills Country Club, and between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera.  Ten years ago they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, which is part of a two-course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low on, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. Al Brosch, in the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open.  But at TPC San Antonio not many records are broken as the course is very tough.

Course information:

• TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course
• San Antonio, Tx.
• 7,494 yards     Par 36-36–72
• AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains, Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens and Bandera in the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay on the path, and it’s members.
• The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour.  It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.
• The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio in 2019 was 71.24, the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2017 the scoring average was 72.85, and it was the 10th hardest course on tour. In 2016 the scoring average was 72.21 and was the 17th hardest course on tour.  In 2015 it was 74.52 and the second hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• In 2014 the TPC San Antonio was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.286 average, playing a shot and a quarter over par.
• In 2013 the TPC San Antonio was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.740 average playing .740 stroke over par.
• There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move is financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which has been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood.  The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,435 yards and a par 72.  It was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted.  The course opened in 2009 and is one of the 10 TPC course that will be used on the PGA Tour this year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in TPC San Antonio.

So the Valero Texas Open is back after not being played last year due to COVID-19 restrictions. This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from the 2019 Valero Texas Open (won by Corey Conners), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio in 2019 was 71.24, the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In the decade, the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. previously, the course had played hard, in the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is because of the winds, the area is notorious for having winds back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and lack of winds. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot a round tougher than in 2019 as it ranked 12th. In 2017 the course played to a 72.85 average, 10th hardest in 2016 the course played to a 72.21 average and was the 17th hardest course. In 2015, with tough conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on tour. So we can see, TPC San Antonio can be a brute between it being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So weather is always important for the week, and looking at the long-range forecast we can see it’s going to be cloudy every day but won’t rain. The first three days it will be around 70 and on Sunday climb up to 77. Now the winds will blow between 12 and 15 MPH, so it will be tough for the players.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the toughest courses the tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important, in 2019, it ranked 36th out of 46 courses in driving distance on all drives (that means players hit it longer, last year driving distance was shorter than 35 of the courses). So with an average driving of 301.1, players will be hitting it hard and not laying up. What is funny in looking at the list of winners they have a lot of short hitters, their last three champions Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. But on the other end of the spectrum, accuracy is important. You can see those results in fairway accuracy, the course was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average, was 19th on tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so it’s crucial to place drives in the fairway. In 2019 the course was 13th in greens in regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high probably because of all the wind. It’s also something that is expected on this course in past the greens have been very tough to hit, in 2017 it was 3rd, in 2016 it was the 15th hardest, in 2015 it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on tour, and the between 2012 and 2019 all the winners were in the top-17 in greens in regulation with last year’s winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat. So our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. In 2019 the course ranked T-7th as winner Corey Conners 2nd. In 2018 the course ranked T-6th in greens hit, with winner Landry ranking 1st while 2017 champion Kevin Chappell ranking 2nd in this stat, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman was 10th in this stat, and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd.

Like we have seen the last couple of weeks on tour if you miss fairways you have to scramble well. In 2019, TPC San Antonio ranked 43rd in scrambling out of 49 courses meaning that players tended to get it up and down more than any other tour events. For winner Conners, he was terrible in this stat, ranking 70th and only getting it up and down 30.77% of the time. In 2018 TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd in scrambling on tour, meaning that the pros could get up and down when missing greens. Last year Andrew Landry was 2nd in scrambling, getting it up and down in 15 of the 19 greens he missed.

Another important item in doing well is putting, In 2019, the course ranked 19th in making putts inside 10 feet with an 87.82 average, while Conners lacked in this stat, ranking T-50th making only 65 of 75 putts. Now in 2018, the course ranked 10th in making putts from ten feet and in with an 86.82 average. Again in looking at our profile of the winner Landry, he ranked T-10th in this stat, making 66 of 72 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie average, and it’s hard to imagine but the players only averaged making 3.68 birdies per round as Corey was first making 29 birdies for the week. In 2018 the course averaged 3.41 birdies per round. That ranked it 12th on tour, while Landry won, making 21 birdies for the week, a 5.25 average.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a great barometer on how players’ games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: The average number of birdies made over the course of a round

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2019 with 130 of the 144 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the stats of all 130 players

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 114 have played at least once at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open since 2010:

• Charley Hoffman is -57 under in 40 rounds, playing 10 years
• Ryan Moore is -35 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Corey Conners is -24 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Jimmy Walker is -23 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Martin Laird is -22 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Matt Kuchar is -22 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
• Brandt Snedeker is -19 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jim Furyk is -18 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Andrew Landry is -17 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Si Woo Kim is -16 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Brendan Steele is -15 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Kevin Chappell is -14 under in 27 rounds, playing 8 years
• Ryan Palmer is -14 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Graeme McDowell is -13 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Chris Kirk is -12 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Zach Johnson is -12 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Kyoung-Hoon Lee is -11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Adam Schenk is -11 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Sung Kang is -11 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jordan Spieth is -11 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Hank Lebioda is -10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Rickie Fowler is -10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Byeong Hun An is -10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Nick Taylor is -10 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Pat Perez is -10 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Scottie Scheffler is -9 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Corey Conners is -24 under, playing 2 years (-12.0)
• Ryan Moore is -35 under, playing 4 years (-8.8)
• Brandt Snedeker is -19 under, playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Charley Hoffman is -57 under, playing 10 years (-5.7)
• Andrew Landry is -17 under, playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Adam Schenk is -11 under, playing 2 years (-5.5)
• Byeong Hun An is -10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Si Woo Kim is -16 under, playing 4 years (-4.0)
• Jim Furyk is -18 under, playing 5 years (-3.6)
• Sam Ryder is -7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Graeme McDowell is -13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Martin Laird is -22 under, playing 7 years (-3.1)
• Matt Kuchar is -22 under, playing 8 years (-2.8)
• Sung Kang is -11 under, playing 4 years (-2.8)
• Nick Taylor is -10 under, playing 4 years (-2.5)
• Denny McCarthy is -5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Jimmy Walker is -23 under, playing 10 years (-2.3)
• Jordan Spieth is -11 under, playing 5 years (-2.2)
• Chris Kirk is -12 under, playing 6 years (-2.0)
• Zach Johnson is -12 under, playing 6 years (-2.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $11,000
• Jordan Spieth – $10,700
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,400
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
• Abraham Ancer- $9,700
• Corey Conners – $9,500
• Ryan Palmer – $9,400
• Cameron Tringale – $9,300
• Charley Hoffman – $9,200
• Brendan Steele – $9,100
• Matt Kuchar – $9,000

With a weak field, that means DraftKings has to take guys that you would possibly be picked due to their marquee value and put them at a high price.  A perfect example is Hideki Matsuyama at $10,100.  Picking Matsuyama at that price is like paying to take a ride on the Titanic, not a great move.  If you can figure this out, then you will have an advantage because you will have a lot of people that go off at a cheap price.  For an example of that, last week’s winner in Dominican Republic Joel Dahmen at $8,200.  Or how about Brandon Hagy who played great at Honda two weeks ago and was runner-up, hard to believe you can get him for just $6,700.  Or even better how about Rafael Campos going off at $7,100 he was T-2nd last week at the Corales Puntacana.

So let’s look at the top of the barrel and the reason you don’t want to take them.

Have to say the top three are right, Tony Finau at $11,000 is a good pick.  Yes expensive and hasn’t played well since the west coast swing, but he’s good from tee-to-green and makes a lot of birdies.  He Was T-3rd at this event in 2017 so yes he is a good pick.  Also, have to say Jordan Spieth at $10,700 is another strong pick, he has played great in the last two months and was 2nd in this event in 2015.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,400 is another good pick, he was T-20th at Valero in 2019 and was runner-up at the Match Play.  As we said before Hideki Matsuyama at $10,100 should be avoided, he has had a rough year with the putter.  Now the course should be good for his game, but he has never played the course so it’s best to pass on him.  Abraham Ancer at $9,700 is too much money for him, yes he is having a deceit year but he has never played well at TPC San Antonio.  Corey Conners at $9,500 is interesting because I don’t like defending champions but after he finished 3rd at the Arnold Palmer and 7th at the Players I thought would change that.  But when he lost all three matches at the Match Play figure it’s best to take a pass on him.  Now Ryan Palmer at $9,400 is worth a look, yes he missed the cut here in 2019 & ’18, but in 2017 was T-6th and in 2016 was T-4th along with a T-6th in 2015 so have to say yes.  He has played well this year, at the Match Play got screwed winning his first two matches and then halving his match with Jon Rahm and then losing a playoff to Rahm.  To make a long story short, he is worth the money.  Cameron Tringale at $9,300 is also in a way good.  He hasn’t played great at TPC San Antonio of late but was T-8th in 2012 and T-5th in 2011 so he can play well on the course.  Has had an ok year, was T-13th in his last start at Honda.  My personal pick is Charley Hoffman at $9,200.  He won this event in 2016 and was 2nd in 2019.  Since missing the cut at Phoenix (think he may have been injured, bad back) but has been solid since was T-7th at Pebble, T-10th at Arnold Palmer, and T-17th at Players.  Also was T-34th at Corales, but shot 77 in the final round.  Still think he will be good.  Brendan Steele at $9,100 is also a past champion in this event in 2011.  I also like the way he is playing, was T-3rd in his last start at Honda after an opening round of 73.  Last is Matt Kuchar at $9,000, he was 3rd at the Match Play and seems to have found his game.  Guess we will know to find out this week and at the Masters, but Kuchar’s game seems perfect for TPC San Antonio even though he has just three top-tens in 15 starts.  Was T-7th in 2019 and T-4th in 2014.  So these players are good for us and will make it harder to find more reasonably priced players

Here is our new feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Valero Texas Open on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Honda Classics starts:

Abraham Ancer made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.

Andrew Putnam made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

Branden Grace made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.

Brandt Snedeker made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

Brice Garnett made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.

Charley Hoffman made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.

Jim Furyk made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.

Matt Kuchar made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.

Ryan Moore made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.

Tony Finau made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,000.

Brendan Steele made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.

Martin Laird made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

Jordan Spieth made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,700.

Pat Perez made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Bo Van Pelt made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

Brian Gay made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.

Graeme McDowell made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.

Harold Varner III made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.

Keegan Bradley made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.

Kevin Chappell made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Nick Taylor made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

Padraig Harrington made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

Si Woo Kim made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.

Sung Kang made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.

J.B. Holmes made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.

John Huh made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.

Cameron Tringale made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.

Jimmy Walker made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

Ryan Palmer made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I like Si Woo Kim at $8,900, he was T-4th in 2019.  Kim did have a tough time at the Match Play but was T-9th at the Players Championship.  Someone to watch is Chris Kirk at $8,600, yes he is expensive but has two T-8th finishes at this event plus he was played solidly this year including that T-2nd at the Sony Open and T-8th at the Arnold Palmer.  Zach Johnson at $8,500 is worth looking at, he won this event twice, but both of them were at LaCantera.  He was T-6th in 2014 and 5th in 2018 plus Johnson was T-8th in his last start at Honda.  As we said before, Joel Dahmen is $8,200 and just won at Corals, he has never played well in three starts so probably best to pass on him.  Then we have the saga of Rickie Fowler at $8,100.  Hard to believe in 2019 in this event he was priced at $11,200 and was the top pick.  He finished T-17th in 2019  I would say no because of all of Rickie’s problems.  Now Charles Howell III is $7,800 and a possibility. He hasn’t played in this event since missing the cut in 2015, but he was 8th back in 2011.  What I like is his game seems to be back together, was T-9th at the Players and T-28th at Corals.  Then you have Erik Van Rooyen at $7,500.  He hasn’t played in this event but look good at the Match Play making it to the round of 16 before losing to Jon Rahm

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Jhonattan Vegas at $7,400 is worth a look.  He hasn’t played great at this event, but was T-18th at Corals and was 2nd at Puerto Rico.  Also at $7,400 is Sam Ryder, he shot a final-round 67 to finish T-2nd at Corales, he’s played twice at TPC San Antonio with the best finish of T-36th in 2018.  Bernd Wiesberger is $7,200 and worth the money, he hasn’t played in this event but is always steady and makes a lot of cuts. Chase Seiffert is $7,100 and playing in this event for the first time.  His last three starts have been strong, he was T-15th at Puerto Rico, T-3rd at Honda, and T-18th at Corales.  Rafael Campos is $6,900 has played once at TPC San Antonio and missed the cut, but he was T-3rd at Puerto Rico and T-2nd at Corales.  We talked earlier about Brandon Hagy at $6,700, he was 2nd at Honda.  Last watch Graeme McDowell at $6,700, he was T-7th in 2019 and found his game last week in Corales, finishing T-4th.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• For the regulars of past Valero Texas Open’s, eleven years ago was the start of the new era here.  For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice, and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has not finished better than T30th in eight tries while Johnson missed the cut in 2010 but did finish T6th in 2014.   In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2019 hitting greens seemed to be the key for many in the top-ten. In 2019 the course was 13th in greens hit while in 2018 it was 9th, in 2017 it was 3rd. In 2015 it had the 2nd hardest greens to hit on tour at 51.73%.  In 2014 it had the hardest greens to hit on the PGA Tour as only 55.24% of them were hit.  That has been the buzz about the course, in its eleven years on the PGA Tour it’s never been above 7th ranked in Greens Hit, until 2016 when it ranked 15th, and that was probably because of the easy weather conditions.
• On the other realm of the spectrum, TPC San Antonio does have the easiest greens on tour to putt. In 2019 it ranked 44th, in 2018 42nd, in 2017 it ranked 44th, in 2016 it ranked 39th in putts per round, in 2015 it ranked 38th out of 51 courses on average putts and putts per round with an average of 28.52.  The course ranked 48th in 2019 in most one-putts of any course on tour with a 44.71 average.
• A combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lots of greens and putt well.  In looking at the nine winners at TPC San Antonio, all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011 ranked T40th in greens hit, in 2017 Kevin Chappell ranked T-36th in putts and in 2019 Corey Conners ranked T-30th in putts).

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it made sense with wins from inexperienced winners like Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch.  But that pace has continued with Corey Conners winning in 2019, Andrew Landry in 2018, Kevin Chappell won in 2017, Charley Hoffman won in 2016 and Jimmy Walker won in 2015, Adam Scott won in 2010 and Ben Curtis in 2012 so the players should know the course by now but look for a non-marquee guy to win.
• Since TPC San Antonio joined the PGA Tour in 2010, it has never been out of the top-20 of toughest courses on tour Until 2019 when it ranked 28th because of the perfect weather and lack of win.
• One trend that is pretty unique at the Texas Open is the fact that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast.  Since 1988 the 3rd round leader has won 22 of the 32 tournaments so if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the championship.  Since moving to TPC San Antonio in 2010 six of the ten winners have led after the third round, In 2019 Corey Conners was 2nd going into the final round and won.  In 2018 Andrew Landry and in 2017 Kevin Chappell both led going into the final round.
• Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough, and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players.  Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio, of those that have finished in the top-3 only nine have been in the top-ten in driving distance.  So this is a course that power won’t dictate a win.
• Fifteen previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs, the last coming in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll.  So there haven’t been any playoffs yet at TPC San Antonio.
• In looking at the long-range weather forecast  It’s expected to be good with just cloudy conditions, but winds will blow between 12 and 16 mph.