Masters Key Fantasy Stats

Masters

April 8th – 11th, 2021

Augusta National G.C.

Augusta, GA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,475

Purse: $11.5 million (From last Novembers event)

with $2,070,000 (Last Nov.) to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tiger Woods

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last November’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The Masters seem fresh in our minds with Dustin Johnson winning. That was because it was a short time, only five months since the Masters was last played in November. Yes, it was unconventional but couldn’t be helped as COVID-19 made it impossible to hold the Masters last April. We saw that a November Masters just isn’t the same as played in April. The grass in November was different, the course wasn’t as firm and fast. The weather wasn’t the same as they didn’t have much wind in November. The scoring average of the November Masters was 71.75 which makes it the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season, so far 30 courses have been played). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. When played in 2019 it was the first time that Augusta played under par for a year since 1992. The reason for it playing so low, not only wet conditions but the final round was moved up almost four hours to avoid really bad weather. At the same time officials set up the course easier, just in case the weather came in which it didn’t, so that was the reason for it being easy. Have to say we won’t see that happening this year, of course, the weather could be favorable, but I doubt that the course will ever play that easy as it has the last two times it has been played. In 2018 the scoring average was 72.93, just about a shot over its 72 par. It was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The reason for it playing almost a full shot harder in 2017 was because of the weather, lack of wind, and manageable rain on Saturday that soften the course up and made it play easier. In 2017 the scoring average was 73.89 making it the 2nd hardest course to score on that year. It’s also important to see why the weather played a factor in 2017, The weather was near perfect but the winds did blow the first two days between 20 to 25 mph, then decreased to 4 to 8 mph for the weekend. The year before 2016 the scoring average was 74.42 again because winds were between 10 and 15 mph each of the four days. Now the year before that in 2015 with good weather but very little wind the course played a lot easier to a scoring average of 72.54 and it ranked the 14th hardest course that year. In looking at the weather for Augusta I can see another round of weather playing a part in the championship. Thursday will be ok, but they are calling for scattered Thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, with showers in the morning on Friday, so maybe the course will play easier. Also, each day will see winds below 10 mph, which is what brings out the teeth in Augusta the wind and without, along with soft conditions and soft greens will allow players to make more birdies.

Now one thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long hitters. That is in part true, hitting it long does have its advantage especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this November when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in regulation, the best in the field. Now showing players that aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and in 2017 both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short. A perfect example was in 2019 Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also in 2016 and in 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance while in 2015 Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top-ten for the week, in November of 2020 five in the top ten were in the top-ten in driving distance, in 2019 only 3, while in 2018 only 4, while in 2017 only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015 only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think.

One thing in looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t utilize stroke gain stats which we have been using more of so we have to go back to the old fashion stats. So in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So these are the four stats we pick for this week’s key course stats.

In looking at Augusta National in 2019 (sorry no stats for November), the course ranked 19th in greens in regulation (61.45). This has been a very consistent number for the last decade. As for importance, winner Tiger Woods ranked 1st, one of 8 players to lead that category while winning the Masters. But the previous year it was totally different as Patrick Reed ranked 21st which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank of the last 23 Masters champions going back to 1997. If you look at those winners, 16 of the 23 are in the top-five like 2017 champion Sergia Garcia who ranked T-2nd. So if only 6 of the 23 are outside the top ten, you have to say that hitting greens is very important in winning the Masters. Last November Dustin Johnson did lead in greens in regulation hitting 60 of the 72, again showing that if you hit a lot of greens you will do well.

Our next category is scrambling and in 2019 the course ranked 11th while Tiger Woods was T-50th (because he hit so many greens). We do know that in November Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling. In 2018 Augusta was 5th on tour while Reed was T-16th. In three-putt avoidance Augusta, the course was 6th hardest on tour while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts). In November Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week). In 2018 it played 5th hardest on Tour while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and ranked T-13th. Our last category is par 5, now for the average field, the Par 5 average in 2019 was 4.58 and was T-33rd on tour. For the week, Tiger was 8 under for the week which ranked T-27th. In 2018, Augusta was 4.70 and it was T-17th on tour. Reed was 13 under for the week which is the key to how he won. You look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by four different players and there were only five different players at 14 under so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone, so playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory. Since 1997 every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 22 years, they average 9 under so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So let’s take a more careful look at how the last five champions became victorious. In November Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong, it was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it being played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course didn’t have the same bite it normally has. In November 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72 hole score, Dustin Johnson became the first player in Masters history to break the 270 marks as he shot 20 under, 268. Of course, records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is for the first time in Masters history someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even tougher to swallow is that the record wasn’t accomplished by the winner, runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. In total, the Master’s statistician was busy as 40 Masters’ records were broken and 14 were tied. So we can see that hopefully, the move back to April will slow this down considerably. Now back to our roll call of recent winnings, 2019 Tiger did it with his ironwork, he hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies which were 2nd best.
Now in 2018, Reed did it with his putter, he not only had the least amount of putts but also was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
In 2017 Sergio Garcia won it with his ball-striking, he was 2nd in fairways hit and T-2nd in greens hit. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
In 2016 Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation, he was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth. He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other important item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind, making lots of birdies, in 2015 Spieth led that stat making 28 birdies for the week while Willett was T-16th making just 13 for the week.

Again if a person can hit a lot of greens and scramble well on the ones he misses and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10 foot range he is a can’t miss to not only contend, but possibly winning.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Three putt avoidance: Augusta has the toughest greens in the world to putt on. They only average 6,486 square feet so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy and you can be faced with a lot of ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away it’s really hard to get up and down in two putts and is important.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters due have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But to win it’s important to do well on the Par 5s.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2021 with 76 of the 88 players having stats. One other thing, the Masters is not part of the PGA Tours shotlink program so you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.