Harbour Town Key Fantasy Stats

RBC Heritage

April 15th – 18th, 2021

Harbour Town G.L.

Hilton Head, SC

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,121

Purse: $7.1 million

with $1,278,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Webb Simpson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, based on data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and using data from all the field players with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Harbour Town last year was 69.14, making it the 37th hardest course on Tour. Now it’s the lowest scoring average the course has ever had since records were kept back in 1997. The reason probably is because the tournament was put back in June, conditions were much different. In 2019 the scoring average was 71.17, which ranked the 11th hardest course of the year. It was a half a shot tougher than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. Weather is always a factor, winds off the Atlantic make the course hard like it was in 2019, each day had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday, they had gusts up to 40 mph and Saturday 30 mph. The good news for this week, in looking at the early weather reports, it will be warm and dry and winds each day under 10 mph

Looking through the event’s history every year, the course average has always been over par except for 2018 and 2017. In the last 23 years, the hardest it’s played was in 2005 at a 73.25 average. The easiest was the previous year when it played under 70 for the first time at a 69.14 average.
Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners haven’t been top-notch until Webb Simpson won it last year. In 2019 C.T. Pan won, and since the victory, he has only finished in the top ten twice, a T-3rd at the Charles Schwab, a month after winning at Hilton Head. Pan also finished T-3rd last month at the Honda Classic. In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira won, and he also has struggled in 61 PGA Tour events since he has only had one top-20 finish coming a month after his Heritage win, T-20th at the Charles Schwab. Kodaira comes into this week with no momentum missing the cut in his last five events. The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan, since winning, he has played in 54 events and has only had four top-25 finished, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018, he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January of 2019 had surgery which took a year to get better. Since coming back has played a limited schedule and struggled.

So the fact is winning the RBC Heritage has not been any kind of a launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour. Not only has Pan, Kodaira, or Bryan not return to the winner’s circle, 2015 Jim Furyk has not won on the PGA Tour. One thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions, the course tends to get an inexperienced winner, as we have seen. Another factor we are seeing, since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the schedule has been loaded with significant events week in and week out. Between now and the PGA Championship, there are only two powerhouse events, this and Wells Fargo, in three weeks. So a lot of players will be taking the next few weeks off. The field is suitable for this week but watches for a decrease in the weeks to come.

So what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America, it’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost overpowering. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2020, the course averaged 278.8 yards, meaning it was the 2nd shortest of all the courses on Tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on Tour last year was Club de Golf Chapultepec, 326.4 yards), players not only throttle it down, on many holes, they lay up with three woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy, you have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 33rd (65.98%) in this stat compared to the others on Tour. In looking at past champions, seven of the last 12 were in the top-ten inaccuracy for the week. Last year’s champion Webb Simpson hit 33 of 54 fairways which ranked T-33rd. In 2019 C.T. Pan was terrible in this stat, as he hit just 29 of the 54 fairways and ranked T-59th, the worst of any champion since 1997. The year before, Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.

For our next categories in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens; last year it ranked 17th, in 2019, and in 2018, it ranked 6th on Tour. 2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th, while in 2016 it ranked 2nd on the Tour and it was in the top-6 in five of the last seven years. In the previous 24 years, 12 of the champions ranked in the top ten, with five leading the category, the last being Matt Kuchar in 2014. Last year’s winner, Webb Simpson, ranked T-12th and hit 53 of 72 greens. In 2019, C.T. Pan ranked 37th hitting 42 of 72 greens, while in 2018, Satoshi Kodaira ranked T-7th, so on the whole hitting greens is essential to winning at Harbour Town.

The next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet, they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course ranked 40th last year (67.14, 2nd best on Tour). In 2019 it ranked 42nd (62.99, 8th best on Tour) and 45th in 2018. It was 46th in 2017, 26th in 2016, and 49th best in 2015, which meant that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time, only three courses saw averages higher you have to scramble well to exist. Last year’s winner, Webb Simpson, ranked T-27th while 2019 winner C.T. Pan ranked T-16th. 2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was T-13th mostly because he hit a lot of greens.
Last we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8 footers. Last year in this stat, Simpson ranked 2nd, in 2019 Pan ranked 5th, while in 2018 Kodaira ranked T-13th. So maybe it’s best to pick those putters that make putts in that range.

So as you can see, the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, every one of them is ranked at the bottom of driving distance, and the longest is Davis Love III, who won last in 2003. So think of it, every champion since has not hit it long, something that you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 33rd in this stat, in 2019 it ranked 21st, 24th in 2018, 21st in 2017, 18th in 2016 and was 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town, last year Harbour Town ranked 17th in this stat but was 6th in 2019 and in 2018. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2021 with 128 of the 135 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.