Copperhead Key Fantasy Stats

Valspar Championship

April 29th – May 2nd, 2021

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Palm Harbor, FL

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,340

Purse: $6.9 million

with $1,242,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Paul Casey

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, based on data from the 2019 Valspar Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Cooperhead in 2019 was 71.98, so with par being 71, that means the average score was just a shade under one shot per round, making Cooperhead the 6th hardest course to score on in 2019. In 2018 the scoring average was 71.97, and again it was the 6th hardest course to score on in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph making the course really hard. In the wind the course is a bear, just look in 2015 when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest), in 2014 the average was 72.59 (10th hardest), and in 2013 it played at 71.91 making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind and it’s a brute. But when you have four days of calm conditions, the course can get easier as in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds the course played to a 71.51 scoring average making it the 17th hardest course. The last time the course played under par was in 2012 when it played at 70.73. Now in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March which is the windiest time for that area. With the change in the calendar to the end of April, the six weeks will make the course play a bit easier. This week winds will be under 10 mph each day with temperatures right around 80 each day so look for scoring to be easier this year.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead for 2019, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet were important. So our first stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because of the fact that in 2019 the course ranked 11th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens hit. Not only is Paul Casey the defending champion, he also won the Valspar in 2018 so he has held on to the title for three years now. In 2019 Casey was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and in 2018 he was 6th. In 2019 Casey was 9th in driving accuracy (was T-68th in 2018) and was T-5th in Greens hit (was T-30th in 2019). Showing how important greens hit is, of the players who finished in the top-five in 2019, 3 of them were in the top-eight in greens hit. In 2018, of the top-4 in position, 3 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit with 4th place finisher Sergio Garcia finishing 2nd in greens hit.
So it’s important to get it close to the hole from the fairway. Last year the Cooperhead course was 15th in Proximity to the hole while Casey was 65th in our second stat.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because of the importance of putting well at Innisbrook. The greens are average size and don’t have many undulations, so players can do well on the greens. Last year the field finished 42nd in overall putting average meaning that only 7 courses on the PGA Tour had better putting numbers than the Cooperhead course. Last year’s winner Casey was T-32ndin overall putting average but in Strokes Gained Putting he was 43rd (we always knew that Paul Casey putting is not the strong suit of his game).
Last we have Par Breakers as the course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour to get birdies and eagles. This is one of the reasons the scoring average is high, players just can’t make a lot of birdies or eagles. In looking at the comparison,it had a 16.04 average in Par Breakers at Innisbrook, but the most productive course in 2019 in Par Breakers was La Quinta C.C. that average is 27.88 But Par Breakers wasn’t a problem for Casey as he ranked T-1st in 2019 and T-5th in Par Breakers in 2018.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication on players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to the Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you have to make these putts in order to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 6th in this stat on tour in 2015.

144 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

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