Quail Hollow Key Fantasy Stats

Wells Fargo Championship

May 6th – 9th, 2021

Quail Hollow Club

Charlotte,, NC

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,521

Purse: $8.1 million

with $1,458,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Max Homa

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Quail Hollow has a lot of history in the last 18 years of hosting events in golf and it will continue hosting not only the Wells Fargo but in 2022 the Presidents Cup and the 2025 PGA Championship. One thing, for the PGA Championship the first five holes were altered with par being reduced from 72 to 71 with only a subtraction of 19 yards. For the PGA Championship, there were changes made to the course, first a new type of Ultradwarf Bermudagrass was planted. They also cut down several thousands of trees, so Quail Hollow is a lot sparser than before. They also have come up with four holes that will be totally different as the 1st and 2nd holes are now one long, 540 yard, par 4. The 5th hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4 and a new second hole was built, it’s now a par 3. Also major work was done to the 11th hole. The famous finish wasn’t touched, but the course is now a par 71 compared to it being a par 72. Even with the reduced par, the course only lost 19 yards and played at 7,554 yards.
The big difference when the 2017 PGA Championship was played compared to the Wells Fargo is the dates. The PGA played in August when the course was bone dry and ran fast. In May the course is lusher and not as much role, so it played a lot easier. In 2017 for the PGA Championship the course played to an average of 73.47 and was the hardest course for the year. In 2018 when it took back its May date, the course played to a 72.13 average and was 5th hardest on Tour. In 2019 the course played to a 71.76 average and was the 8th hardest. No matter when it was played the character of the course has not changed between the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, but yes it is harder at a par 71 than before.

So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, based on data from the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.

From year to year Quail Hollow is demanding and tough, you look at the list of winners who are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Lucas Glover. Yes, some weird winners like Max Homa, Derek Ernst, Joey Sindelar, and James Hahn have won They are on the list, but most of the time you’re going to get a quality winner, someone that plays well in major championships and WGC events. So in looking at our four categories, they are all related to ball striking, except for the last category which I think will be very important and that is scrambling.
First is driving accuracy, the field at the 2019 Wells Fargo hit a total of 55.57% of the fairways and was the 8th hardest fairway to hit on the PGA Tour. When the Wells Fargo was played at Quail Hollow in 2018 it was the 6th hardest as only 52.34% of the fairways were hit. During the PGA Championship in 2017 58.59% hit the fairways as it was the 19th hardest course to hit. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2019 he hit 55.63% of the greens and was T-45th..
The course is also long, so players have to hit drivers off the tee and you don’t see many players lay back with a 3 wood or long iron. Our second category is proximity to hole, this is the cousin to greens in regulation which Quail Hollow was the hardest to hit for the PGA Championship in 2017 and was 3rd at 42 feet, 9 inches in Proximity to Hole. For Homa in 2019 he ranked T-17th in Greens in Regulation and 16th in Proximity to hole, as for Thomas at the 2017 PGA Championship, he was T-29th. Our third category is strokes gained tee to green, again this gives an overall look at a player from the tee to the green, in 2019 Homa was 12th while at the 2017 PGA Championship Thomas was 22nd. Our last category is scrambling, in 2019 the course was the 12th hardest on the PGA Tour while Homa was the 2nd best for the week.

So the secret is that this week a ball-striker or a very good putter will rule and take the championship. I go more towards ball striking because in the past that has been more important.

*Driving Accuracy: Important because the fairways are close to U.S. Open length and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, in 2019 Quail Hollow ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 2nd as the players averaged getting it 41 feet, 7 inches.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. In 2019 the course was 43rd in driving distance and 8th in accuracy. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better. Last year Quail Hollow was 12th on the PGA Tour showing how tough it is to scrambling at Quail Hollow.

Here are the 146 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.