BlogWells Fargo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say that Sam Burns’s win at the Valspar Championship was very popular and an expected victory.  Burns is three months shy of his 25th birthday and has been a fixture on the PGA Tour for the last four years.  It wasn’t until the start of this year he has shown his true potential and gotten the attention of betters.   In his first start of the 2021 season at the Safeway Open, he started with rounds of 64-65 to lead after the second round.  He fell back over the weekend to finish T-7th, but it would be the start of something.  Burns also lead after the 2nd and third rounds of the Vivint Houston Open, again falling back on the final round to finish T-7th.  At the Genesis Invitational, he led after the first, second, and third rounds and, despite playing well in his final round 69, was beaten by a stroke when Max Homa shot 66.  Despite not winning, he seemed to get better with the final round pressure and showed that he was ready to win as he entered the final round at the Valspar tied for the lead.  Burns held together perfectly in the final round to shot 68 and win by three shots over Keegan Bradley.  He joined Jason Kokrak, Carlos Ortiz, and Joel Dahmen as a first-time winner this season with the win.  But more importantly, he joins Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland as winners under the age of 25 in 2021.  Burns also becomes the fifth player at the Valspar (in its 20-year history) to claim his first victory at the Valspar.  We only mention this because, in the 17-year history of the Wells Fargo Championship, it too has seen five players claim their first PGA Tour victory, some of them including Rory McIlroy in 2010, Rickie Fowler in 2012, and Max Homa in 2019.  If you wanted to carry it out a bit further, Justin Thomas won his first major in 2017 at Quail Hollow, the Wells Fargo home.  So in a way, we shouldn’t be surprised if Abraham Aner, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Wallace, or Will Zalatoris all non-winners and in the field find their way to the top.

So how is the field for this week?

Have to say that for a tournament that is two weeks away from the PGA Championship, the folks at the Wells Fargo got a great field.  Not only did they get 44 of the top-100, they got 21 of the top-50 and six players out of the top-ten.  Yes, it’s disappointing that Dustin Johnson, Colin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, and Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, but they still did well.  Have a funny feeling that many that are in the field won’t be in Dallas next week as the AT&T Byron Nelson transitions to yet another golf course.  It will be interesting to see what happens to this event after this year.  With the Presidents Cup being played at Quail Hollow next year and the PGA Championship returning in 2025, we may be seeing the last of Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship.  The tournament knows that they can go to another course and be ok, when they went to Eagle Point in 2017 it was a big success in a very strong market of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Another thing to watch, next month the PGA Tour is going to Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina for a replacement tournament of the Canadian Open, the Palmetto Championship.  That course is really great and will be a place players love.  If that is a success and they can get folks to the event, who knows if Wells Fargo would put Congaree on their rota.  So anything can happen in the future.

Things you need to know about Wells Fargo:

This is the 18th year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which has been played every year at the  Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina except for 2017. Eagle Point was a big success, but Quail Hollow is the course of record for Wells Fargo.

Course information:

• Quail Hollow Golf Club
• Charlotte, N.C.
• 7,600 yards     Par 35-36–71
• Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 bermudaGrass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last year’s event and are Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass.
• One of the big secrets to Quail Hollow is that the players love the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America, and the players’ eyes one of the best challenges. For years it was considered a “U.S. Open-type” venue and the PGA of America was smart enough to hold its major on it.
• Quail Hollow Club is located in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a private member club, founded by James J. Harris on April 13, 1959. The club hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979, the PaineWebber World Seniors Invitational from 1983 through 1989, and has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship since it debuted in 2003.
• The property was initially a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course, and it opened in June 1961. To attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much; he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.
• Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a significant renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.
• But at the end of 2016, a lot of things were done to the course in first getting it ready for the 2017 PGA Championship and now for the Wells Fargo and any other events that will be played on the course in the future.  Along with all of the greens being redone, thousands of trees were removed, a bit like what Oakmont Country Club did.  This reshaped the way the course plays and made the elements of wind come into effect more.
• They also made significant changes in four holes.  The first and second holes were condensed into a single hole, a 540-yard par 4. The fifth hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4. A new second hole was built, a par 3. The 11th was given extra bunkering.  The average green size is 6,500, which is about average and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers.  Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17, and 18).  Along with the changing of the greens course architect Tom Fazio made some changes four years ago to the 8th hole making it play straight and now is potentially a driveable par 4.  He also made a significant change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake more into play, making it a lot tougher.  He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole.  The changes were well received, even the change from a par 72 to 71.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Quail Hollow.

Quail Hollow has a lot of history in the last 18 years of hosting events in golf and it will continue hosting not only the Wells Fargo but in 2022 the Presidents Cup and the 2025 PGA Championship. One thing, for the PGA Championship the first five holes were altered with par being reduced from 72 to 71 with only a subtraction of 19 yards. For the PGA Championship, there were changes made to the course, first a new type of Ultradwarf Bermudagrass was planted. They also cut down several thousands of trees, so Quail Hollow is a lot sparser than before. They also have come up with four holes that will be totally different as the 1st and 2nd holes are now one long, 540 yard, par 4. The 5th hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4 and a new second hole was built, it’s now a par 3. Also major work was done to the 11th hole. The famous finish wasn’t touched, but the course is now a par 71 compared to it being a par 72. Even with the reduced par, the course only lost 19 yards and played at 7,554 yards.
The big difference when the 2017 PGA Championship was played compared to the Wells Fargo is the dates. The PGA played in August when the course was bone dry and ran fast. In May the course is lusher and not as much role, so it played a lot easier. In 2017 for the PGA Championship the course played to an average of 73.47 and was the hardest course for the year. In 2018 when it took back its May date, the course played to a 72.13 average and was 5th hardest on Tour. In 2019 the course played to a 71.76 average and was the 8th hardest. No matter when it was played the character of the course has not changed between the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, but yes it is harder at a par 71 than before.

So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, based on data from the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.

From year to year Quail Hollow is demanding and tough, you look at the list of winners who are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Lucas Glover. Yes, some weird winners like Max Homa, Derek Ernst, Joey Sindelar, and James Hahn have won They are on the list, but most of the time you’re going to get a quality winner, someone that plays well in major championships and WGC events. So in looking at our four categories, they are all related to ball striking, except for the last category which I think will be very important and that is scrambling.
First is driving accuracy, the field at the 2019 Wells Fargo hit a total of 55.57% of the fairways and was the 8th hardest fairway to hit on the PGA Tour. When the Wells Fargo was played at Quail Hollow in 2018 it was the 6th hardest as only 52.34% of the fairways were hit. During the PGA Championship in 2017 58.59% hit the fairways as it was the 19th hardest course to hit. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2019 he hit 55.63% of the greens and was T-45th..
The course is also long, so players have to hit drivers off the tee and you don’t see many players lay back with a 3 wood or long iron. Our second category is proximity to hole, this is the cousin to greens in regulation which Quail Hollow was the hardest to hit for the PGA Championship in 2017 and was 3rd at 42 feet, 9 inches in Proximity to Hole. For Homa in 2019 he ranked T-17th in Greens in Regulation and 16th in Proximity to hole, as for Thomas at the 2017 PGA Championship, he was T-29th. Our third category is strokes gained tee to green, again this gives an overall look at a player from the tee to the green, in 2019 Homa was 12th while at the 2017 PGA Championship Thomas was 22nd. Our last category is scrambling, in 2019 the course was the 12th hardest on the PGA Tour while Homa was the 2nd best for the week.

So the secret is that this week a ball-striker or a very good putter will rule and take the championship. I go more towards ball striking because in the past that has been more important.

*Driving Accuracy: Important because the fairways are close to U.S. Open length and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, in 2019 Quail Hollow ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 2nd as the players averaged getting it 41 feet, 7 inches.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. In 2019 the course was 43rd in driving distance and 8th in accuracy. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better. Last year Quail Hollow was 12th on the PGA Tour showing how tough it is to scrambling at Quail Hollow.

Here are the 146 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link for all the stats of the 146 players

DraftKings tips

Of the 156 in the field, 130 have played at least once at Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo since 2010:

• Rory McIlroy is 76 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Phil Mickelson is 66 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Rickie Fowler is 45 under in 31 rounds, playing 8 years
• Webb Simpson is 32 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Pat Perez is 31 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jason Day is 27 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Patrick Reed is 20 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Ryan Moore is 20 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years
• Stewart Cink is 16 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Aaron Wise is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Lucas Glover is 14 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Brendan Steele is 13 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Kyle Stanley is 13 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Bo Van Pelt is 12 under in 19 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Thomas is 9 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Robert Streb is 9 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Francesco Molinari is 8 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• J.B. Holmes is 8 under in 29 rounds, playing 9 years
• Jon Rahm is 8 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Seung-Yul Noh is 8 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Zach Johnson is 8 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Keith Mitchell is 7 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Tony Finau is 7 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Hunter Mahan is 6 under in 31 rounds, playing 8 years
• Max Homa is 6 under in 9 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Rory McIlroy is 76 under, playing 9 years (-8.4)
• Aaron Wise is 15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Jason Day is 27 under, playing 4 years (-6.8)
• Phil Mickelson is 66 under, playing 10 years (-6.6)
• Rickie Fowler is 45 under, playing 8 years (-5.6)
• Pat Perez is 31 under, playing 8 years (-3.9)
• Keith Mitchell is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Webb Simpson is 32 under, playing 10 years (-3.2)
• Justin Thomas is 9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)
• Patrick Reed is 20 under, playing 7 years (-2.9)
• Francesco Molinari is 8 under, playing 3 years (-2.7)
• Ryan Moore is 20 under, playing 8 years (-2.5)
• Stewart Cink is 16 under, playing 7 years (-2.3)
• Bo Van Pelt is 12 under, playing 6 years (-2.0)
• Seung-Yul Noh is 8 under, playing 4 years (-2.0)
• Max Homa is 6 under, playing 3 years (-2.0)
• Seamus Power is 6 under, playing 3 years (-2.0)
• Brendan Steele is 13 under, playing 7 years (-1.9)
• Kyle Stanley is 13 under, playing 7 years (-1.9)
• Tony Finau is 7 under, playing 4 years (-1.8)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,300
• Bryson DeChambeau – $11,000
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,500
• Webb Simpson – $10,200
• Rory McIlroy – $10,000
• Viktor Hovland – $9,800
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,600
• Tony Finau – $9,500
• Will Zalatoris – $9,400
• Patrick Reed – $9,300
• Corey Conners – $9,200
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,100
• Max Homa – $9,000

The pricing of this event is far, yes Justin Thomas is the best player in the field, but at the cost of $11,300 it’s going to be hard to pick him.  Thomas did win the Players but has been very inconsistent since the Sentry Tournament of Champions.  Since then he has only had one top-ten, at the Players.  He did play well last week at the Valspar finishing T-13th, but I think he isn’t ready to win, yet.  What I really wonder about Thomas, he did win the PGA Championship in 2017.  But in three Wells Fargo, his best finish Was T-7th in 2015.  He didn’t play in the 2019 affair due to injury, but what worries me is not that he could get a top-ten, just don’t think he will win or get you a top-five.  The same with Bryson DeChambeau at $11,000, he is priced too high.  Could Bryson win this week, yes.  Think his chances of winning is better than Justin Thomas.  DeChambeau did finishing 4th in 2018 but didn’t play in 2019 and in his previous two starts missed the cut.  We never know which Bryson DeChambeau will show up but I think it’s best to save the money for other players.  Jon Rahm at $10,800 is worth the money, now in his only Wells Fargo start he finished 4th in 2017, but that was on another course.  He did play in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017 and was T-58th.  But let’s be realistic, Rahm has been the most consistent player on tour right now.  Going back to the Masters that was played in November, he has played in ten events and been out of the top-ten just twice, so you always get value with Rahm and feel he will play well.  Xander Schauffele at $10,500 is also a question mark  His record at Quail Hollow is not great, missing the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship and T-72nd in 2018.  But he played well at the Masters and is well-rested so he could make a run, but I’m not taking him.  Webb Simpson at $10,200 is another question mark for me.  His record isn’t great at Quails Hollow other than his runner-up finish in 2015 and 4th in 2013.  But we have to look at his record of late, he was T-12th at the Masters and T-9th at the Heritage.  Since he lives close to Quail Hollow has to say he is probably a person to consider.  The same with Rory McIlroy at $10,000.  The money is terribly high for what he has done the last couple of months, but we haven’t seen him since missing the cut at the Masters and when he left he had a game plan on what needed to get fixed.  So after a month, we will see which direction his game will take over the summer.  Viktor Hovland at $9,800 is high for a guy that has never played at Quail Hollow.  But he looked great last week at the Valspar, he also looked like he is close in his game and he could peak this week, so yes he is worth the cost.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,600 is a question mark.  He missed the cut at the Masters and Heritage, yes he was T-11th at Zurich with partner Xander Schauffele, but I worry about him playing this course for the first time so I am saying no to him.  Tony Finau at $9,500 is also a no for me, but we have to think he is close to breaking out of his mini-slump.  I make no decision because he has played at Quail Hollow five times and his best finish was T-16th in 2015.  Will Zalatoris at $9,400 has never played at Quail Hollow but it doesn’t matter, his game has been great and with a two-week breather think he will be roaring to getting back and contenting.  Patrick Reed at $9,300 is a hard choice, his game hasn’t been great since he won in San Diego in January.  But the course is perfect for him, many don’t realize it but Reed was T-2nd at the 2017 PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow.  So he is a big yes for me.  Same with Corey Conners at $9,200, he is the hottest player in golf right now.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,100 is also a year, he is playing great.  The same with defending champion Max Homa at $9,000, his game really heated up at Valspar.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Wells Fargo on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Wells Fargo starts:

Phil Mickelson made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6900.

Rickie Fowler made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7800.

Hunter Mahan made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6000.

Patrick Reed made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9300.

Jason Day made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8600.

Tony Finau made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9500.

Emiliano Grillo made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8100.

Francesco Molinari made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.

Seamus Power made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.

Rory McIlroy made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 10000.

Brian Harman made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 8700.

Brendan Steele made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7700.

Zach Johnson made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7100.

Luke List made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6800.

Matt Jones made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7400.

Pat Perez made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7000.

Adam Hadwin made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7200.

Harris English made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8000.

Gary Woodland made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.

Kyle Stanley made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7100.

Robert Streb made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6300.

Stewart Cink made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7900.

Lucas Glover made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7800.

Webb Simpson made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Abraham Ancer at $8,900 is a very good choice and someone you should think of.  He has been knocking on the door for a victory, and this could be the perfect place for that to happen.  Sungjae Im at $8,800 is another good choice, yes his game hasn’t been as good as in 2020 but he has shown signs of doing well, think he will have a good week in Charlotte.  Tommy Fleetwood at $8,000 is a great price, yes he hasn’t played great this year but you have to think it could get better.  We now see Stewart Cink at $7,900 and are a bit surprised.  After winning at the Heritage you would have thought his value would go up but it hasn’t gone up a lot.  Now Cink’s record at Quail Hollow isn’t as impressive as his record at Harbour Town was, but Cink has played well at Quail Hollow so we have to give him some respect that he will have a good week.  Do we even mention the name Rickie Fowler?  He has really gone into the dumper and he tees it up in an event he has done well in.  But is Rickie Fowler worth the $7,800?  Could he make the cut and surprise us over the weekend, possibly.  Now a person to watch is Brendan Steele who is just $7,700.  Think he will have a good week and give you lots of points.  Joel Dahmen at $7,600 is also worth looking at.  Was 2nd at the Wells Fargo in 2019 and despite some bad golf in 2021 did win at Corales Puntacan so anything can happen.  The last player to look at is Matt Wallace at $7,500.  He is playing for the first time at Quail Hollow and what I like is his consistent run the last six weeks.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Matt Jones at $7,400 he has made six cuts in his last eight starts at the Wells Fargo.  Also, like Charl Schwartzel at $7,200, he has played well the last few weeks and he was T-9th at Quail Hollow in 2018.  Zach Johnson at $7,100 is worth it due to his good play of the last few weeks, also like that Johnson has held his own at Quail Hollow.  Keith Mitchell at $7,000 is a great choice for someone who should make the cut and do well. In 2019 he was T-8th at Wells Fargo.  Pat Perez at $7,000 is also a good choice, he was T-8th in 2019 and T-2nd in 2017.  Normally we wouldn’t bother with Phil Mickelson, but $6,900 on this course is worth your while.  Yes, he missed his only cut in 16 years last year, but he has played so well at Quail Hollow has to take the gamble that he will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hit it long and straight, avoid the 130 of bunkers and putt well making all your putts inside of ten feet.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Since the course will play at more than 7,521 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. But as you will see length is not the only strength you need to play well at Quail Hollow. Four of the 15 Wells Fargo winners (James Hahn, Jim Furyk, David Toms and Joey Sindelar) do not have the reputation as long hitters even though the 2005 winner Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Rory McIlroy, Derek Ernst, J.B. Holmes and Max Homa do hit it long.  So it’s a 50/50 proposition on if longer hitters have an advantage.  Remember this, if players that hit it long like Dustin Johnson, Cameron Champ, Matthew Wolf, and Brooks Koepka thought they had a chance of playing well they would be in the event this week and they aren’t.
• Quail Hollow joins Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Bethpage that have held a major championship and PGA Tour events.  The course will play a bit easier than it did for the PGA Championship, mostly because of weather conditions and course setup.  Still the fairways will be tight with three-inch plus rough and fast undulating greens.  The course always ranks as one of the toughest courses the pros play year in and year out.
• Since the greens have some roll in them, it will also be tough to not only hit the green but get it close. Sharp iron play will also help along with the imagination when you do get in trouble. But as we have seen in the history of Quail Hollow, the winners are diverse as Jason Day in 2018, Justin Thomas winning the PGA Championship, along with Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods.  One thing that is interesting of the 15 different winners at Quail Hollow (including Justin Thomas at PGA), eight of them (Day in 2018, Thomas 2017, McIlroy 2015 & ’10, Glover 2011, Woods 2007, Furyk 2006, Singh 2005 and Toms in 2003) have won a major championship.
• Scrambling will be at a premium, look for good chippers like Phil Mickelson or a Rory McIlroy to have a great advantage here. On this year’s scrambling list, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Ian Poulter, Scott Stallings, Russell Henley and Harris English are in the top-ten for 2021 so these are folks to watch this week.
• Putting is always a key to winning, but this year good putters should have a field day this week. Green speeds were lowered in 2008, and Anthony Kim was 2nd in total putts.  But it popped up in 2009 as Sean O’Hair was T47th, the worst of any champion.  In 2010 McIlroy was T38th in this category while in 2011 Glover was 3rd.  In 2012 Fowler was T40th while in 2013 Derek Ernst was T34th. J.B. Holmes was T4th in total putts in 2014 while in 2015 Rory McIlroy was T-13th in putts and James Hahn in 2016 was T-14th.  In 2017 Justin Thomas was 6th in total putting, 4th in Strokes gained-putting and 2nd in putting average at the PGA Championship.  In 2018 Jason Day was first in total putting and 2019 champion Max Homa was 2nd.
• One of the keys to mastering Quail Hollow is playing well on the final four holes. Showing the difficulty of this stretch dubbed the “The Green Mile,” holes 16, 17, and 18 have been in the top-70 of the PGA Tour’s hardest holes.  Throw in the par 5, 15th it’s a challenging stretch in which the last five champions have excelled on.  How good, in 2019 Max Homa was 1 under, in 2018 Jason Day was 3 under on the mile and 5 under on the last 4 holes.  At the PGA Championship in 2017 Justin Thomas was 1 under on the last four holes.  In 2016 James Hahn played the stretch in 1 over, the same total as Rory McIlroy played it in 2015.  J.B. Holmes played the stretch in 3 under, in 2013 Derek Ernst was four under, in 2012 Rickie Fowler was 3 under, in 2011 Lucas Glover was 1 under, and in 2010 Rory McIlroy was 3 under.
• Need for patients.  This is one of those courses that par is your friend, so don’t look for low scoring.
• Last but not least we have to look at the weather this week.  Look for great weather the whole week with no storms. The good news, temperatures will be mild around the mid-70s each day, going up to 82 on Sunday with low humidity and winds will be below 12 mph each day.