BlogAT&T Byron Nelson Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Funny how time and a little work can work wonders.  Just a month ago, Rory McIlroy looked terrible in missing the cut at the Masters.  Nothing about his game was working.  Rory was driving all over the place, missing greens, not able to get up and down, along with missing a lot of putts.  After missing the cut at both the Genesis and Players Championship, nobody could comprehend what was wrong.  After missing the cut at the Players, Rory assessed his game and goals and realized that things weren’t going well.  Ever since the restart of Golf from COVID-19 last June and culminating at the U.S. Open, McIlroy was in awe over all the things Bryson DeChambeau was doing and tried to copy what he was doing.  Like everyone else in the world of Golf, he felt that DeChambeau had a significant advantage, and many like McIlroy thought they needed to emulate Bryson.  For McIlroy, that didn’t work, and he saw his game crumble, so he decided to make some changes to revert to the way Rory McIlroy use to be.

Not only did McIlroy start working with renowned teacher Pete Cowen, but the last couple of months, he had been working with Sports Psychology guru Bob Rotella.  Last week before the Wells Fargo, Rory and Pete worked hard down in Florida, and Rory felt good about his game, maybe not about winning, but felt things were going in the right direction.  For McIlroy, it was the second-longest drought streak of his career.  He hadn’t won since the 2020 WGC HSBC Champions back in October of 2019.  On US soil, his last win was the 2019 Tour Championship, 20 months ago.  The major flaw in Rory’s game was more in his mind than fundamental which made it easy to go back to the Rory McIlroy basics that made him so good.  Since the return from the break last June, McIlroy was playing well but had this one round mental stumbling block.  It was like McIlroy would play great for three days but always had one poor round.  Guess what, those rounds just happened to come over the weekend.  In looking at the Wells Fargo win, McIlroy again had that one poor round, it just seems to happen with a first-round 72 before he bounced back with rounds of 66-68-68.  Now before you rush to the computer to place a large bet on McIlroy at the PGA Championship, he isn’t out of the danger zone quite yet.  We all saw what happened on 18 on Sunday, a pull hooked his drive that just missed the creek that rambles the left side of the fairway.  McIlroy had to take a drop from a poor lie and hit a great shot to make bogey to preserve a one-shot win over Abraham Ancer.  We noticed that McIlroy had changed his philosophy off the tee. For years he was known for hitting a draw with the driver, but at the Wells Fargo, he was hitting a fade.  But the driver didn’t work for him as he hit just 19 fairways, the worst in the field.  As a matter of fact, it was so bad that in checking records going back to 1983, he tied the mark for the fewest fairways hit by a PGA Tour winner.  Tom Sieckmann, who won the 1988 Anheuser Busch Golf Classic, also hit just 19, so both have that dubious record.  Now before I worry everyone from betting on Rory, the win achieved one big-ticket item, confidence.  Despite not being able to keep it on the fairway, McIlroy was 3rd in greens hit and was great with the putter.  Just like Jordan Spieth, it’s not about how well you hit it, but how much confident you are in scoring well, mostly with good work in greens missed and making putts.  In the case of Spieth and McIlroy golf is 90% confidence over 10% perspiration.  At Wells Fargo, McIlroy made 52 out of 52 putts from six feet and under.  When you do things like this, your confidence grows, and when you win, that confidence spreads to other parts of your game, as we have seen with Jordan Speith.

McIlroy wasn’t the only player to get a boost in their confidence going into the PGA Championship.  With Abraham Ancer’s runner-up finish, he now has four seconds with no wins, which makes us put him on the list of favorites at Kiawah.  The same with Viktor Hovland, who got his second straight 3rd place finish in a row, he is hotter than a pistol.  Gary Woodland, who has been bestowed with injuries since winning the U.S. Open in 2019, finished 5th, his best finish since the Zozo Championship back in October of 2019.  Patrick Reed is stalking with his T-6th finish, watch out for him.  But the comeback of the week had to come from Bryson DeChambeau, who, after finishing 2 over early Friday, boarded his private jet to go home to Dallas.  To his amazement, once in Dallas, the cut went to 2 over, which meant another costly trip back to Charlotte, where he shot 68-68 over the weekend to finish T-9th and win some jet money.  For DeChambeau, the next two weeks could be exciting as he will be playing courses tailored to his long-ball style.  Still, DeChambeau has to avoid high numbers, at the Wells Fargo, he had two double bogeys and a triple bogey on Friday.

Nelson event still struggles to get marquee players, now their actions in getting a new course has hurt them:

This is a tournament that had a unique niche on the PGA Tour.  Since 1968 it has been the most financially successful charity event on the PGA Tour, raising $163 million for its charity, the Salesmanship Club.  Between 1983 and 2017, it was played at TPC Las Colinas, a course that many PGA Tour players may not have loved but was an excellent spot for those that attended the tournament.  For the fans, they loved all of the locations they could watch golf in comfort, either under shady trees or in stands around the course.  They also loved the big party pavilion located off the 2nd hole, So for years, the AT&T Byron Nelson was the in-place for fans to watch golf.  The course also had excellent infrastructure with a Four Seasons hotel behind the 18th green and the Las Colinas Sports Club.  These tended to erase the fact that the course wasn’t the gem-like Colonial Golf Club, 40 miles down the road in Ft. Worth and the home to the Charles Schwab Challenge was.

For years between 1990 and 2006, the year Byron Nelson died this event every year always attracted a great field, with a lot of marquee names. That’s because Byron Nelson spent a lot of time not only recruiting players but always being a part of the tournament and sitting behind the 18th green to thank all of the players for coming.  So for players, even though they didn’t like the course they felt that they owed Byron Nelson with their support each year.  Hey, even Tiger Woods showed up year after year.  But in 2007 after Byron Nelson passed away that all changed.  Players started skipping the Nelson and even though the lack of marquee names didn’t affect the bottom line of the tournament, fans still sold the week out the course just became a dirty secret for organizers.

So for years, the Salesmanship Club was always looking for a better facility, and the opportunity came knocking on their door when a new course was built in Dallas, Trinity Forest.  For years they watched the development of this course and finally worked out a deal to move the Byron Nelson to the new home in 2018.  The last year that the Nelson was played at TPC Las Colinas, they raised $6.8 million for charities.  So when they moved, they expected to roll along and not only be loved by those that attended the tournament, but they were hoping that players would love the course and, in future years, gain more marquee names.  But that never happened.  Despite the course being better than TPC Las Colinas, the tournament got a lousy slot in the schedule, and players avoided it.  On top of that, poor weather and the lack of a party atmosphere for those that attended the tournament created lower attendance.  Trinity Forest may have been a good course, but it had very few trees to shade the fans from the 95+ days in the first year.  So this event which was a money tree for its charities struggled, in 2018, it netted $4.8 million and then $3 million in 2019.  So when COVID canceled the Byron Nelson in 2020, tournament officials gave up on Trinity Forest.  They first looked into going back to TPC Las Colinas, but they lost the tournament’s parking.  So they decided on a new course, TPC Craig Ranch, which had held two Korn Ferry Tour events and had some excellent infrastructure along with a lot of shady trees.  Not only did the club, which is very private want to hold the event, but the town of McKinney, Texas has stepped up to help this tournament be a success.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic:

This will be the 67th edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic, which was formerly called the Dallas Open. The TPC at Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas was the primary site of the tournament between 1983 and 2017 when it moved to Trinity Forest Club.

The inaugural Dallas Open in 1944 was won by Byron Nelson by a whopping 12 strokes.  Three annual tournaments were staged with Nelson winning the first, then Snead winning the next followed by Hogan winning in 1946.  After that, the city couldn’t find a sponsor for the tournament, and after a lapse of 10 years, James Ling sponsored the event beginning in 1956.  The tournament has been played every year since then except for 1963 when the PGA Championship was played in Dallas and 1965 when the tournament was switched from September to the spring.  In 1967 the Salesmanship club took over sponsorship and the following year the tournament was renamed after Byron Nelson, who was born just outside of Dallas and had a 630-acre ranch in Roanoke, Texas.  The tournament is the 9th oldest active event on the PGA Tour and along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational is the only event named after former players.

So this is another drastic change for fans of this event, they enjoyed everything about TPC Four Seasons but didn’t like Trinity Forest.  So with the change now to TPC Craig Ranch tournament organizers is making sure that TPC Craig Rance will be even bigger and better for the fans and their charities.

Course information:

• TPC Craig Ranch
• McKinney, Texas
• 7,468 yards     Par 36-36–72
• For the second time in the last four years, the AT&T Byron Nelson has changed to its new course TPC Craig Ranch.  Tom Weiskopf designed the course which opened in 2004.  In the years of planning and constructing it the PGA Tour, gave input on what the course needed to hold a tournament.  Frankly, that is what the original owners wanted, to hold a regular PGA Tour on it.  The property is massive and large enough to handle big crowds.  Each hole is framed with lots of trees down the side of it and despite being under 20 years old, looks very mature. The Rowlett Creek runs through the property, which creates more challenging shots.  The greens are average size at 6,800 feet and are fair with not much undulations.  The greens are bent, which will give players a more appealing feel.  83 bunkers dot the course, and for the players, if the weather is good, they can have their way with this course.  Over the weeks of the growing season a month ago, a hard freeze stopped the rough growth, so with the lack of challenging rough, the course will be more of a layup.  The course will play to a par 72 and at 7,468 will be classified as a “Bombers Delight.”  just by seeing the field makeup, every long ball hitter is playing this week, except for Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson who had to withdraw for a knee injury.
• The one thing that many agree on is that the winner will have to use a lot of imagination to get around the course.  The course is a par 72 and will play at 7,468 and Weiskopf has put a gambling aspect to the design.  All par 5s are accessible in two, giving players a chance for eagles.  Along with the par 5s, there are three par 4s #3, #6 and #14 that could lead to birdies or even eagles.  If the PGA Tour moves up the tee’s on holes 6 & 14, they could be drivable but in the case of the 14th hole with water down the left side, could lead to double bogeys or more.  So you can see why we are calling this a bomber delight, there could be some great excitement with this course.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Bryson DeChambeau – $11,200
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Jordan Spieth – $10,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,300
• Daniel Berger – $10,100
• Brooks Koepka – $9,900
• Will Zalatoris – $9,700
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,500
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Marc Leishman – $9,200
• Ryan Palmer – $9,100
• Sergio Garcia – $9,000

Originally Dustin Johnson was the top guy priced at $11,400, now that distinction goes to Bryson DeChambeau at $11,200.  He is perfect at the top, he has to be the favorite because, with his length and light rough, he has a half a shot a round advantage over the rest of the field.  Yes, I think a lot of folks will be placing their support to DeChambeau this week.  A bit worried over Jon Rahm at $11,000, he is a no for me just because of how bad he looked at Wells Fargo.  He is a streaky player but have to be concerned with him missing the cut.  So it’s best to pass on him and see how he is doing.  Jordan Spieth at $10,700 is worth the risk, despite not playing in over a month since the Masters, don’t think it will be long for him to peel off the rust in his game.  I am glad he took a long time off, I really think he was worn out after playing in nine events in 11 weeks.  Could Spieth do what he did before the Masters, win another Texas event the week before a major?  Yes but I hope he doesn’t, always think it takes way too much energy to win the week before a major.  Daniel Berger at $10,100 is a no, think he isn’t 100% with the rib injury.  Yes his last start was Heritage and he finished T-13th, I am just a bit cautious with him.  The same with Brooks Koepka at $9,900, just think this is an easy week for him to get some reps before the PGA Championship, frankly, we all don’t know what state Koepka’s game is in, but don’t think he is in the position to contend.  Will Zalatoris at $9,700 is not for me, hasn’t played great since his runner-up at the Masters.  Just have to see how this week goes.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,500 is a question mark for this week.  Think he will be one of by PGA Championship picks, but for this week the course may eat him up, he is just too short to really contend so I say no to him.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,400 is a yes, feel he can dominate this course and do very well.  Sam Burns at $9,300 will have a lot of takers, I just am too worried for him after his victory two weeks ago.  Marc Leishman at $9,200 is a maybe, Leishman is not a long hitter but can still score well, but he is at a disadvantage with his length off the tee.  There are so many other better choices than him, but he could get hot and be in contention. Ryan Palmer at $9,100 has shown us very little in 2021 other than his runner-up finish at the Farmers.  He did finish 7th with partner Jon Rahm at Zurich, but his body of work just doesn’t give us enough confidence to pick him this week.  Last we have Sergio Garcia at $9,000.  The course should be set up great for him and I feel he could possibly do what he did at the Players Championship.  It is a gamble, it always is that way with Sergio.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

In looking through the list of players in this price range was very surprised to see Thomas Pieters at $8,600.  Haven’t heard much from him in 2021 and frankly, that’s because we haven’t tried.  Since the U.S. Open in September he has played 8 times and only finished out of the top=25 twice.  He is one of those players that are best to take, think he will help a lot.  Lee Westwood at $8,500 is also not a bad choice, he is now rested after his run in March, and who knows may be ready to make another run at things.  Luke List is $8,400 and surprised us all with his T-6th finish at Wells Fargo.  Other than that his year has been a bust, maybe he will go on a run, have to wait and see.  Aaron Wise at $8,300 is another player to watch.  He is coming out of hibernation and has had some good finishes in the last couple of months.  He was T-9th at Wells Fargo, so it may be worth thinking about him.  The same with Keith Mitchell at $8,000, he has played well of late, was T-3rd at the Wells Fargo so might be worth the low cost.  I have been all over Charl Schwartzel all month and at $8,100 he is still a good choice, was T-14th last week at Wells Fargo.  Another cheap choice is Peter Uihlein at $7,600.  All month I have been talking about him, he has played well in Dallas and this month has had a good run, lots of value with him.

Are there any bargains out there?

Look at Brandt Snedeker at $7,400 because he has been playing great of late including a T-6th at the Valero Texas Open, T-4th at the Zurich Classic partner with Keith Mitchell, and T-11th last week at Wells Fargo.  Another possibility is John Catlin at $7,200, he has finished a good run on the European Tour winning the Austrian Open last month and 5th at the Tenerife Open two weeks ago.  Wyndham Clark at $7,000 is worth a try, Clark is one of the longest hitters on tour and could have a field day with the course this week.

So what will it take to play well at TPC  Craig Ranch?

The ability to hit it long and leave yourself with a wedge into the greens.  Once you get them onto the green, making some putts.  This is a course that will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, look for some really low scoring

Weather, that will be the key.

Look for some good weather this week, the course will be wet due to the rainy and deep freeze that hit the area in the last few week. This year the weather should be great, along with the low wind the first two days.  Things start getting worst over the weekend, Sunday could have some thunderstorms and wins blowing at 13 MPH.