Colonial Key Fantasy Stats

Charles Schwab Challenge

May 27th – 30th, 2021

Colonial C.C.

Fort Worth, TX

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,209

Purse: $7.5 million

with $1,350,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Daniel Berger

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Colonial, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Colonial last year was 69.57, making it the 13th hardest course last year. The year before, it played tougher due to more wind and conditions, it was 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year. In 2018 with favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings. In 2017 Colonial was 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on Tour that year as the course played over a shot a round over par. In 2016 Colonial was 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter of a shot over par and almost a half a shot harder than the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015. So why the difference? Rain and wind, in 2015, they had flooding conditions the week before the tournament, and the course was very wet. On top of that, winds averaged between 10-15 mph. In 2016 the course didn’t have as much rain, and winds blew up to 20 mph the first three days and calmed a bit for the final round. But in 2017, winds blew each day at around 20 mph, which made the course play very tough, matter of fact, the hardest it’s played since 2002 when the course played to a 71.21 average and ranked 6th on tour. So as we can see, mother nature and wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.

Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era in which accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking to the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry and runs, put in some wind, and it can play tough. But with no wind, wet conditions, you will see many birdies and eagles, and that’s what has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course. That’s why in past years, you didn’t see long ball hitters like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, Luke List, and J.B. Holmes here. But Bryson DeChambeau showed the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club. With his newfound power, DeChambeau was able to fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs. Over the course of four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 or more yards. At the end of the day, DeChambeau missed a short putt at 17, making bogey, and was a shot back of the Daniel Berger/Collin Morikawa playoff, but what DeChambeau did was lay out the groundwork on an all-out assault of Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly after what happened last year, DaChambeau decided not to play this week.

Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years have won at Colonial (except for Tiger Woods) as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018, which includes Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson to name a few. In looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important stat is Ball Striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2021, the odds are a player in the top-30 of that list
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.158.html
will come out this week. Just look at the list, some of the players at the top that are in the field include Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Matthew NeSmith, Emiliano Grillo, James Hahn, Daniel Berger, and Joaquin Niemann, to name those in the top-ten.

So who will win this week? Tell you this, it will be a guy with a lot of fitness and a sharp iron player. So why is this so important in a time when overpowering courses are the norm? There is no room to add yardage to Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players have to throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. That is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and last year’s winner Daniel Berger won this event.
In looking at our four categories, Fairway Accuracy is crucial, last year, Colonial was the 15th hardest course to get into the fairway, while last year’s winner Daniel Berger was T-17th in fairway hit. Our second stat is greens in regulation, last year, Colonial ranked 24th while Berger rank T-4th in this stat, hitting 56 of 72 greens. Since 2001, five of the winners have led this stat to show the importance of this stat, and in the last four years, Kevin Na and Justin Rose led the stat, 2017 Kevin Kisner was 2nd with Berger T-4th last year.
Our third stat is Par Breakers, last year Colonial ranked 12th overall, while Berger was T-2nd in this stat. Our last stat is Strokes-Gained Putting as Berger was 8th in this stat. As for Colonial, they don’t keep track of that state tournament-wise, but I can tell you this, seven of the last 19 winners have led in total number of strokes, so putting is very important.
Another essential element for this year is the weather, last year, it was good, but for this week, coming up will see temperatures in the 80s with winds under 10 mph each day. There isn’t supposed to be any rain other than Thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. So that will mean very fast, dry conditions, and with some wind, the course will play super-tough
With conditions like this, you won’t have any “non-marquee” type of winner, the man who wins on Sunday will be a player who has won before and many times on the PGA Tour.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in Regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so Par Breakers is the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 114 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.