BlogCharles Schwab Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Championship gave us a lot of great stories.

For the top-four in the world rankings, their games showed us very little.  Dustin Johnson missed the cut in his second major and Justin Thomas missed the cut at Kiawah.  In the case of Johnson, something is there.  He just isn’t in the right frame of mind, has no reason why if it’s physical, swing problems, or personal problems.  Something is just not right and with the U.S. Open, just three weeks away have to wonder if things will straighten out.

In the case of Justin Thomas, think he isn’t very keen on Kiawah and he just had a bad week.  We will see if he is able to bounce back this week, the course is perfect for him and he did well last year.

As for Jon Rahm, we are realizing he just isn’t a good week in week out all-around player.  One of Rahm’s biggest problems in 2021 is putting, last year he ranked 22nd in strokes gained putting, for 2021 he is 113th.  Rahm is having a tough time making anything over ten feet, he ranks for the year 199th in putting from 10 to 15 feet, he is 134th in putting from 15 to 20 feet, and is 188th in putting over 25 feet.  Rahm also gets upset very easily and he shows his youth in which he has no stomach to work hard on something, he tends to give up too easily.  At the PGA Championship, he was getting testy with the media, telling them that he really didn’t want to be there.  For all of his complaining, he finished T-8th and earned $263,000, a few more dollars than the average media person made last week.  Rahm has become more of a complainer than finding a way of getting it done.  Frankly, he should see what happened this week to Phil Mickelson who worked hard in figuring out how to win again.

Last we have is Bryson DeChambeau the player that has more potential than any player on tour.  As I said in my PGA preview, DeChambeau’s Kryptonite is wind and you could see him struggle with it.  I also question some of his course management but whatever works for him we have to respect.  But we will see DeChambeau struggle anytime he plays in winds.

Now for some good things.

Rickie Fowler finished T-8th and unfortunately if he could have made a 12 footer at the 72nd hole for par things would have been better.  With a T-4th finish, he would have gotten into the 2022 Masters, plus the added points in the World Rankings and FedExCup points.  But the good news, it was his first top-ten in 15 months going back to the 2020 American Express in Palm Springs.  We will all wait for the Memorial which is Rickie’s next start to see if this wasn’t a fluke.

Another person to watch will be Tony Finau, who after a streak of finishing starting at the American Express 4, T-2nd, T-2nd, and 2nd at Genesis.  But when Finau lost that playoff to Max Homa his game went into the dumper.  In a span of his last six events, he missed three cuts when is uncharacteristic for Finau.  He did finish T-10th at the Masters but slipped back by missing the cut at the Wells Fargo.  At Kiawah, he finished T-8th, but he seemed to improve on each round which makes us think that he has recaptured that magic that makes him so good.

Respect your elders

For most PGA Tour players this is a new phrase that they were using about Phil Mickelson.  It was simply an unbelievable week for Phil Mickelson, who most of us had given up and wondered why he wasn’t playing more on the Senior Tour.  Before the PGA Championship, there were only seven winners of 50 on the PGA Tour.  In some circles, you can’t really consider John Barnum, James Barnes, Art Wall Jr., and Sam Snead because their wins came over 50 years ago.  In the modern era of golf, the only players over 50 to win were Craig Stadler, Fred Funk, and Davis Love III.  The fact is simple, once that magical number is reached the odds of you winning are very slim.

Now of course many of us still remember the 2009 British Open when Tom Watson came within a hole of winning at the age of 59.  Watson played great golf but when he hit a wedge on that final hole that took a bad bounce which led to bogey, you could tell that Watson was drain.  It didn’t take four holed to determine a winner, Stewart Cink took an early lead in the four-hole playoff and beat Watson by six shots.

But with Mickelson holding on to win the PGA Championship you have to think that all of the players on tour have a new respect for what Mickelson did.

Now for gambling talk the question I have for you, how many of you cashed the winning ticket of Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship?

Bet not many of you did.

Mickelson’s win was very popular, not since Tiger won the 2019 Masters were we on pins and needles during Mickelson’s back nine on Sunday at Kiawah Island.  To think that Phil became the oldest player to win a major, breaking the 53-year record of Julius Boros winning the 1968 PGA Championship at age 48.  That record seemed so unachievable, like Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak in 1941 or Byron Nelson winning 11 PGA Tour events in a row.  In a way, we knew that someone would turn 50 and win.  In a way winning over 50 is like the record 18 hole score of 63 in the majors.  When Johnny Miller became the first with his 63 in the final round of the 1973 U.S. Open, nobody thought twice about it. The next person to tie the record was Bruce Crampon in the 975 PGA Championship followed by Mark Hayes in the 1977 British Open.  By the time that Nick Price shot the first 63 at the Masters, their were eight of them shot.  Over the years that number wasn’t broken until Branden Grace shot 62 in the third round of the 2017 British Open.  It was a big shock because over the course of the 44 years 63 was shot 31 times by 29 players.  So we thought that mark would never be broken.  The same with this age record, Julius Boros had been the oldest player at 48 to win a major and that record was 53 years old before Phil broke it at Kiawah.

The same with someone over 50 winning a major.  It’s hard to fathom that in 456 majors going back to the 1861 British Open that nobody in their 50s has won at least once.   Sam Snead led a couple of PGA Championships in his 50s going into the final round, but he couldn’t get it done.  Jack Nicklaus, Lee Trevino, Hale Irwin were all great senior players, but they could not win on the PGA Tour over 50.  Greg Norman led the British Open in 2008 at the age of 53 but stumbled in the final round to finish T-8th.

But forget about age, nobody a week ago thought that Phil Mickelson could have won.  We all realized that just two weeks ago Mickelson opened up with a seven-under-par 64 to lead the Wells Fargo.  But it didn’t take long for the pixie dust that Tinkerbell spread on Mickelson to rub off as he shot rounds of 75-76-76 to finish 69th.  For Phil, it seemed the only way he could win again was to play Senior Golf.

Not one “soothsayer” picked Mickelson.  There are hundreds of prognosticators like myself that spew out every stat know to golf on why we should pick a certain player but not one gave any chance of Phil winning  At the beginning of the week odds of Mickelson winning were 300 to one.  In the DraftKings Fantasy Golf Millionaire game, 177,708 plucked down $20.  Out of the 177,798 tickets, only 1.36%, or 2,428 players picked Phil.  Making this number seem even more astonishing, Mickelson was priced at only $6,700 so he was really a longshot according to Draftkings.

Still, we can see why Phil was such a long shot, to think that Phil would do anything other than shooting 75-75 and miss the cut at Kiawah was unfathomable.  But Phil is famous for that old saying,” what will Phil do next,” and he showed us how we should never give up on him.  After the Wells Fargo debacle, Mickelson sent out a tweet that proved to be quite prophetic on what was ahead of him by saying that he had failed many times in life but always learned from failure and would use it to fuel his drive and work harder.  Two weeks later he proved that we never should give up on him and basically anyone can win at any given time.

The one thing that all of us can’t fool is father-time.  But as Jim Nantz told us Sunday when Phil putted out on 18, yes “Phil defeats father-time.”  Be interesting to see if Phil can save up some of that magic to possibly make a run at the major that is left on his resume to win the U.S. Open all I can say is you never will know what Phil will do next.

Now the big question and one that is hard to answer, can Phil do it again?  In a way many wish that Phil could have held off and won next month’s U.S. Open, making him a winner of all the majors.  Gosh to think of that happening would be a great moment.

Still, the question looms, with him playing on his boyhood course Torrey Pines, gosh Hollywood couldn’t write a better script.  For me, I will be rooting hard.  Oh for those that are wondering, Mickelson’s odds two weeks ago when he accepted a USGA exemption into the open at 250 to 1.  Since then the odds have come down to 60 to 1 so to make sure you get the best odds place that bet today.

Things you need to know about the Charles Schwab Challenge and Colonial:

This is the 74th year of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Commonly referred to as the Colonial National, it’s not the oldest event on the PGA Tour in longevity several events have been played longer.  As for the same course, Augusta National, and the Masters can claim to have been played on the same course longer on the PGA Tour, with Colonial being the second longest length of a course for a tournament.  Colonial does have one distinction it’s the only course in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975), and the U.S. Women’s Open (1991).

The tournament got started in 1946 when it was apparent that the USGA wasn’t going to make Colonial an annual stop.  The event was the inspiration of John Marvin Leonard, who operated a store in downtown Fort Worth and wanted to see the best golfers in the world play on his course.  Having Ben Hogan win its first two events, gave the event and the course the recognition that it needed.

Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course got the name “Hogan’s Alley.”  At one time, Hogan practically held every record of the tournament.  In the 21 times Hogan played at Colonial, his highest finish was a T-56th in his last appearance in 1970 at the age of 58.  Over Hogan’s career, he won 54 tournaments, with the last victory coming in the 1959 Colonial.  One of Hogan’s most enduring records at Colonial was the 65 he shot in the 3rd round in 1948.  It took seven years for someone to tie the record when Chandler Harper did it in 1955, and it took 22 years for someone to beat the record when Dale Douglass did it with his 63 in 1970.  Hogan loved Colonial and became a dues-paying member of the club.  So it’s no surprise that the greatest of Ben Hogan’s life and golf career is celebrated in the Hogan Room with an audio-visual presentation of his career and some memories of his career including clubs and replicas of all the trophies and medals.

Now the history of Ben Hogan and Colonial didn’t start with his win in 1946.  It was started in the early 1930s when a young Ben Hogan decided to play on the PGA Tour. He received financial backing from Marvin Leonard, the man who built Colonial.  Hogan wasn’t a big success; many times he was forced to drop off tour and take a job to earn enough money to rejoin the tour.  However, as soon as Hogan began making money on tour he offered to settle his account with Leonard, who told him to forget about the money.  However, in the 1950s Hogan was able to pay back Leonard in an even bigger way.  After Hogan launched the Ben Hogan golf equipment company, he offered Leonard the opportunity to purchase 50 percent of the company.  Leonard seized the opportunity and along with Hogan made a handsome profit when the company was sold to AMF in 1960.

The Colonial Country Club was the vision of Leonard, a native of Fort Worth.  He was considered a “workaholic” in the 1920s when his doctor told him he needed to slow down his pace.  Leonard turned to golf and joined Glen Garden Golf Club and Rivercrest Country Club, the best courses of the time in Fort Worth. As Leonard’s interest in golf grew, he became more interested in all aspects of the course, including the types of grass.  In the south, Bentgrass was thought to be impossible to grow, so all of the courses in Texas were Bermuda, which tended to be bumpy.  Leonard thought it would be a good idea to have bent grass and in trying to get Rivercrest to change the club president got tired of the requests and told him, Marvin, if you’re so sold on bentgrass, why don’t you go build your own golf course and put it on that course?”  So in 1934, Leonard did just that.

He acquired 157 acres in Southwest Fort Worth and hired golf architect John Bredemus to build him a championship course.  On January 29, 1936, the course was opened, and many thought it could be one of the most magnificent courses in the world. In the late 30s, Leonard also felt that Colonial was the best and lobbied the USGA to hold the U.S. Open at Colonial.  Even though the Open was never played in the South, when Leonard offered $25,000 to hold the event at Colonial it was given the 1941 Open.  To make sure that the course withstood the challenge of the best players in the world in 1940 he called in Perry Maxwell to redo holes 3, 4 & 5.

Even with the rain that hampered the Open it was a big success and plans to start a yearly tournament at Colonial were talked about but plans were put on hold because of World War II.  When the war ended, the club decided to hold the Colonial National Invitational and to add some prestige offered a purse of $15,000, the third-largest sum on the PGA Tour.  With a first-place check of $3,000 awaiting the winner, a field of 32 players teed off with Ben Hogan winning.  Since then 74 Colonials have been held with the course pretty much the same as it was in 1941, with some minor revisions that were implemented in 1969 when several holes along the Trinity River were damaged by flooding.

One of the biggest distinctions of the Charles Schwab is the number of great players who have won it.  In the 73 years of this event, 59 different players have won.  Of those 59, 30 have won a major championship and out of all of the winners 16 are in the World Golf Hall of Fame so this event has a great resume of past champions.  Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years has won at Colonial (with the exception of Tiger Woods).  The list includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Roberto De Vicenzo, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Justin Rose, Ben Crenshaw, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson to name a few.

Now, this event almost was lost when tournament host Dean & Deluca begged out of their sponsorship a few years early.  Frankly, when I heard that Dean & Deluca was sponsoring a tournament in Texas, it made no sense.  You see Dean & Deluca is a bunch of high-end stores like Whole Foods or Wegmans, but they are mostly in the New York area.  They were planning on putting one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but when those plans went away, so did Dean & Deluca on the PGA Tour.  As we can see with tournaments like Houston, you could be rolling along in great shape, but then your sponsor decides it’s not worth the $10 million a year investment, that event is in trouble.  The good news, the Colonial found a new sponsor in time for 2018 and with Charles Schwab will continue on the PGA Tour as they have signed on to 2026.

Course information:

• Colonial Country Club
• Fort Worth, Texas
• 7,209 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The Colonial has a 75.1 rating and a slope rating of 138 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees, Fairways, and rough are BermudaGrass while the greens are Bent.
• It was designed and built by John Bredemus, with Perry Maxwell doing some touch-up work, and opened in 1936.  There were some minor revisions in 1969 to some of the holes to prevent flooding from the nearby Trinity River.
• In 2000, the club completed a two-year course renovation, which started in November of 1998 when they installed a new irrigation system.  The primary work was done in rebuilding all 18 greens with new A-4 bentgrass.  They also redesigned and rebuilt all the 84 bunkers, giving them a new definition so that they will be seen from tees and fairways.
• All of the green and bunker work was done three weeks after the 1999 tournament ended with the membership not having the full course reopen until April 1st of 2000. Club has also planted close to a hundred trees that won’t be in play but in years to come will help define the holes.
• We usually don’t talk about technology in golf but when we talk about Colonial one of the reasons for it losing its fear factor is technology.  Colonial is one of golf’s treasured layouts that can’t keep up with technology.  The course sits next to the Trinty River on the north and houses on the East, South, and West of it, so there is no way to add any yardage.  So the course is at the mercy of mother nature, if it gets windy the course will play tough, but if not it’s easy.  We go more into detail on this later.
• This course for years was feared by all the touring pros; if you look at the winning score pre-1996, you saw years in which the winner was 7, 8, 9, and 10 under.  However, starting in 1997 every year but two (8 under in 1999 and 9 under in 2014) saw scores in the double digits for the winners showing how easy the course got.
• One advantage the course has being short, most of the holes at Colonial are doglegs so the driver is taken out of the hands of players which means most of the holes you have to lay up meaning more players hit more fairways.  Many players are balking about playing Colonial, two past champions Steve Stricker and Phil Mickelson have played sparsely in past years because they don’t like the driver taken out of their hands. We have seen bits and pieces of the proud history of this event crumbling.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Colonial.

This is based on the most important stats for Colonial, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Colonial last year was 69.57, making it the 13th hardest course last year. The year before, it played tougher due to more wind and conditions, it was 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year. In 2018 with favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings. In 2017 Colonial was 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on Tour that year as the course played over a shot a round over par. In 2016 Colonial was 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter of a shot over par and almost a half a shot harder than the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015. So why the difference? Rain and wind, in 2015, they had flooding conditions the week before the tournament, and the course was very wet. On top of that, winds averaged between 10-15 mph. In 2016 the course didn’t have as much rain, and winds blew up to 20 mph the first three days and calmed a bit for the final round. But in 2017, winds blew each day at around 20 mph, which made the course play very tough, matter of fact, the hardest it’s played since 2002 when the course played to a 71.21 average and ranked 6th on tour. So as we can see, mother nature and wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.

Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era in which accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking to the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry and runs, put in some wind, and it can play tough. But with no wind, wet conditions, you will see many birdies and eagles, and that’s what has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course. That’s why in past years, you didn’t see long ball hitters like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, Luke List, and J.B. Holmes here. But Bryson DeChambeau showed the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club. With his newfound power, DeChambeau was able to fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs. Over the course of four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 or more yards. At the end of the day, DeChambeau missed a short putt at 17, making bogey, and was a shot back of the Daniel Berger/Collin Morikawa playoff, but what DeChambeau did was lay out the groundwork on an all-out assault of Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly after what happened last year, DaChambeau decided not to play this week.

Every great shotmaker from the last 75 years have won at Colonial (except for Tiger Woods) as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018, which includes Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson to name a few. In looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important stat is Ball Striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2021, the odds are a player in the top-30 of that list
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.158.html
will come out this week. Just look at the list, some of the players at the top that are in the field include Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Matthew NeSmith, Emiliano Grillo, James Hahn, Daniel Berger, and Joaquin Niemann, to name those in the top-ten.

So who will win this week? Tell you this, it will be a guy with a lot of fitness and a sharp iron player. So why is this so important in a time when overpowering courses are the norm? There is no room to add yardage to Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players have to throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. That is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and last year’s winner Daniel Berger won this event.
In looking at our four categories, Fairway Accuracy is crucial, last year, Colonial was the 15th hardest course to get into the fairway, while last year’s winner Daniel Berger was T-17th in fairway hit. Our second stat is greens in regulation, last year, Colonial ranked 24th while Berger rank T-4th in this stat, hitting 56 of 72 greens. Since 2001, five of the winners have led this stat to show the importance of this stat, and in the last four years, Kevin Na and Justin Rose led the stat, 2017 Kevin Kisner was 2nd with Berger T-4th last year.
Our third stat is Par Breakers, last year Colonial ranked 12th overall, while Berger was T-2nd in this stat. Our last stat is Strokes-Gained Putting as Berger was 8th in this stat. As for Colonial, they don’t keep track of that state tournament-wise, but I can tell you this, seven of the last 19 winners have led in total number of strokes, so putting is very important.
Another essential element for this year is the weather, last year, it was good, but for this week, coming up will see temperatures in the 80s with winds under 10 mph each day. There isn’t supposed to be any rain other than Thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. So that will mean very fast, dry conditions, and with some wind, the course will play super-tough
With conditions like this, you won’t have any “non-marquee” type of winner, the man who wins on Sunday will be a player who has won before and many times on the PGA Tour.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in Regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so Par Breakers is the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 114 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link for all 114 players stats

DraftKings tips

Of the 120 in the field, 108 have played at least once at Colonial in the Charles Schwab since 2015.

• Jordan Spieth is 58 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Kevin Na is 37 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Kevin Kisner is 34 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Brian Harman is 32 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Rose is 29 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Rory Sabbatini is 26 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Tony Finau is 25 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Danny Lee is 24 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Patrick Reed is 23 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 19 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Matt Kuchar is 18 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Adam Hadwin is 17 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Chris Kirk is 17 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Corey Conners is 17 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Charley Hoffman is 15 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Collin Morikawa is 15 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Emiliano Grillo is 14 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Joaquin Niemann is 14 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Peter Uihlein is 14 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Gary Woodland is 12 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Joel Dahmen is 12 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Justin Thomas is 11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Russell Knox is 11 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Andrew Putnam is 10 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• J.T. Poston is 10 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Maverick McNealy is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Daniel Berger is 9 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Jordan Spieth is 58 under, playing 6 years (-9.7)
• Justin Rose is 29 under, playing 3 years (-9.7)
• Patrick Reed is 23 under, playing 3 years (-7.7)
• Kevin Na is 37 under, playing 5 years (-7.4)
• Peter Uihlein is 14 under, playing 2 years (-7.0)
• Corey Conners is 17 under, playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Kevin Kisner is 34 under, playing 6 years (-5.7)
• Brian Harman is 32 under, playing 6 years (-5.3)
• Rory Sabbatini is 26 under, playing 5 years (-5.2)
• Maverick McNealy is 10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Tony Finau is 25 under, playing 5 years (-5.0)
• Joaquin Niemann is 14 under, playing 3 years (-4.7)
• Matt Kuchar is 18 under, playing 4 years (-4.5)
• Joel Dahmen is 12 under, playing 3 years (-4.0)
• Danny Lee is 24 under, playing 6 years (-4.0)
• Brandt Snedeker is 19 under, playing 5 years (-3.8)
• Sungjae Im is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Adam Hadwin is 17 under, playing 5 years (-3.4)
• Chris Kirk is 17 under, playing 5 years (-3.4)
• Andrew Putnam is 10 under, playing 3 years (-3.3)
• Daniel Berger is 9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jordan Spieth – $11,200
• Justin Thomas – $11,000
• Collin Morikawa – $10,500
• Patrick Reed – $10,300
• Daniel Berger – $10,000
• Will Zalatoris – $9,900
• Abraham Ancer – $9,700
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,500
• Corey Conners – $9,400
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,300
• Gary Woodland – $9,200
• Sungjae Im – $9,100
• Jason Kokrak – $9,000

Jordan Spieth at $11,200 doesn’t surprise me, he is on most prognosticators list of players to beat this week.  He is playing great golf right now plus he has dominated at Colonial since he finished playing in 2013.  He won it in 2016, was second in 1017 and ’15, and never been higher than 32nd in this event.  In the 32 rounds, he has only been over par four times so you know he will be in contention on Sunday.  Now I can’t say the same with Justin Thomas at $11,000.  He has been Jekyll or Hyde in the way he has played since January and despite winning the Players doesn’t have many great things.  But he played well at Colonial in his rookie debut finishing T-10th, so he should be ok, but at his price, it’s probably best not to use him.  Collin Morikawa at $10,500 also has some question marks on him.  He was 2nd last year, losing a playoff to Daniel Berger.  I worry about his inconsistency but he did finish T-8th at the PGA Championship, the only problem is the high price.  Patrick Reed is also very high at $10,300.  His Colonial record is good, he plays Colonial well and has done well of last, T-8th at the Masters, T-6th at Wells Fargo, and T-17th at the PGA Championship.  It’s your choice.  The defending champion Daniel Berger is $10,000 and frankly, I am not that high on him.  Yes, he was T-3rd at the Bryon Nelson, but I just don’t think the timing is good for him.  Will Zalatoris at $9,900 is another leap of faith because he has never played at Colonial.  But all during the year he has played great week in and week out but still he is too much money for my blood. Abraham Ancer at $9,700 is the same problem but he has a bit more history playing in three previous Schwab Challenges.  His best finish was T-14th last year and he is a lot of money.  But he is on a great run, 5th at Valspar, 2nd at Wells Fargo, and T-8th a the PGA Championship so you have to think about him.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,500 is a big question mark since he played last year and finished T-55th.  The one thing that you have to think about Scheffler is he is 1st on the PGA Tour in total driving, that stat is very important to win at Colonial.  Corey Conners at $9,400 is also a lot of money, but he is worth it.  Has played well at Colonial, was T-8th in 2018.  But he has played good of late, have to think with his T-8th at the Masters and T-4th at Heritage along with his T-17th at the PGA Championship you have to think about him.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,300 has a good record at Colonial, but he just isn’t as good as Conners, Scheffler, or Ancer so I have to say no.  Gary Woodland at $9,200 is someone to think about, he was 9th last year at Colonial and was doing great of late until he finished the PGA Championship with a 77 on Sunday, he is a toss-up for me.  Sungjae Im at $9,100 is another player that did well last year (T-10th) but too many better choices to take him.  The same with Jason Kokrak at $9,000, but he did finish T-3rd last year.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say am very impressed with how Justin Rose’s game is getting better. He is $8,900 this week and you may want to pluck the money down for him, he does play great at colonial.  Rose finished T-8th at the PGA Championship so yes that gets you thinking about him.  Phil Mickelson is $8,500 and many will flock to him because of last week.  I say no to him for this week mostly because he will be tired after the last week.  You don’t win a major at 50 and expect to do well a few days later.  Phil needs to rest.  Kevin Na at $8,400 is someone to think about, has been up and down of late but plays well at Colonial.  Yes, Brian Harman is $8,000 and yes he missed the cut at the PGA Championship.  But that is the only negativity on him he has been very consistent this year.  Brandt Snedeker at $7,900 is a person to look at, in nine starts only has one top-ten and that was T-2nd in 2015.  What I like about him is his last three starts, T-4th at Zurich, T-11th at Valspar, and T-17th at the Byron Nelson.  Last look at Chris Kirk at $7,600.  I like him because he always plays well at Colonial the course sets up perfectly for him.

Any bargains out there?

Looking for those diamonds in the rough?  Not many, one is Kevin Kisner at $7,400.  He has been terrible of late missing his last five cuts but has always been consistent at Colonial.  On the other end of the spectrum, Doc Redman at $7,200 doesn’t have the same record at Colonial as Kisner, but was T-9th at the Byron Nelson.  Harry Higgs at $7,200 is someone to watch, was T-38th in his Colonial debut last year but was T-4th at the PGA.  Rory Sabbatini at $7,100 is a good choice because he makes a lot of cuts and at Colonial should be the same.  The same with Zach Johnson at $6,900 he is solid at Colonial.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Charles Schwab Challenge:

The key stat for the winner:

• Experience at Colonial seems to be an essential part of winning.  Since 1996, 22 players have won at Colonial and have a total of 260 victories, so that means an average of 12.1 wins for each of the champions.  Last year’s winner Daniel Berger and 2019 champion Kevin Na won for the 3rd time and both won again within six months, Berger at the AT&T and Na at the Shriners Hospitals.  2018 winner Justin Rose won two other times after winning the Colonial, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the 8th time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.  In 2012 Zach Johnson won for the 8th time in his career as winners range from Tom Watson with 34 wins and Nick Price with 18 to Sergio Garcia who made Colonial his first PGA Tour win in 2001.  The fact is rookies don’t win at Colonial.  Yes, Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour to win at Colonial but he had won in Europe.  The same with the next first-time winner Ian Baker-Finch in 1989, he had won in Australia.  In looking at the 74-year history of Charles Schwab, only eight first winners have done the deed, which tells us to look for an experienced person to win.

Another key:

• Look at all of the champions; you will see one thing in common, they are accurate drivers of the ball, which historically has been very important in winning at Colonial.  The bottom line is wild drivers don’t win here.  Now, of course, there is always an exception to the rule, in 2016 Jordan Spieth only hit 38 fairways and ranked T-54th.  The previous year Chris Kirk only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-60th while in 2007 Rory Sabbatini only hit 29 fairways and ranked T60th.   However, last year Daniel Berger was T-17th, the same with Kevin Na. In 2018 Justin Rose was 6th in driving accuracy, in 2017 Kevin Kisner hit 40 fairways and ranked 1st getting us back to the era of between 1998 and 2005 when all the winners didn’t rank higher than 9th in fairway accuracy, with seven of them being in the top-five. Driving accuracy is still critical in winning this event.
• An important stat to look at to gauge the champion this week in strokes gained tee-to-green.
• Look at this list of players for 2021 in strokes gained tee-to-green, I feel that one of those in the top-30 of this list will probably be the winner this week.  1st on the list is Collin Morikawa, 3rd on the list is Justin Thomas, 6th on the list is Will Zalatoris, 7th on the list is Tony Finau and 9th on the list is Corey Conners.
• Shot-making is almost a lost art, and if you look at all of the champions in this millennium, all of them were great shotmakers.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.  Now there is another way, if you don’t hit greens, that is scrambling.  Last year Jordan Spieth may not have been among the leaders in greens hit, but he led in scrambling. Look at the chart below of the last ten winners, in looking at the two stats hitting greens or scrambling, and you will see a key for winning.

Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Texas can sometimes be iffy in May. But this week is going to be one of the most consistent weeks, every day will be around 80, very little wind each day but Friday and Saturday could have thunderstorms.