Torrey Pines Key Fantasy Stats

U.S. Open

June 17th – 20th, 2021

Torrey Pines South Course

La Jolla, CA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,652

Purse: $12.5 million

with $2,250,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Bryson DeChambeau

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last January’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from the 2021 Farmers Insurance played last January.
When Torrey Pines was played in January the South course played to a 73.34 average, the 3rd hardest course of the year. Looking back at the 2008 U.S. Open played at Torrey Pines, remember that the course played to a par 71 with the sixth hole reduced to a par 4, the course played to an average of 74.71 the third-highest average on tour.
Now the course for this year’s U.S. Open may be the same, but the characteristics will be changed drastically. First is the par, it will be a par 71 this week with the sixth hole playing as a par 4. Another item will be the rough, it’s not only super high but will be brutal to hit out of. Last year at Winged Foot the winner Bryson Drachmae only hit 3 of 56 fairways. Despite the rough being high at Winged Foot, in practice rounds, DeChambeau realized that the rough wasn’t that rough for his powerful swing and would be able to get the ball out of the rough, especially if he was close to the green. So Bryson took out his driver and bombed away not worrying about the repercussions if he missed the fairway. While everyone in the field was having a tough time and went out of their way to hit as many fairways as possible, Bryson and runner-up Matthew Wolff swung away for the fences and even if they missed the fairways, had short irons left to the greens. Wolff hit only 19 of the 56 fairways while Bryson hit 23 of the fairways. Even Xander Schauffele, another long hitter hit only 17 fairways and still finished 5th. So despite seeming happy when they handed DeChambeau the trophy for winning, the USGA realized that the importance of the rough is not the length that it is, but its density. In the weeks after the Open, the USGA remembered not only that when they were setting up Torrey Pines for the U.S. Open, but they also remembered something that happened in 2008.
When the U.S. Open was played at Torrey in 2008, the USGA wasn’t able to take advantage of a hidden secret that the course has Kikuyu grass. That grass is a weed from South Africa and it’s a really hard weed that superintendents try to avoid. The reason the grass was made to protect the grass from horses in polo matches. You find it mostly in Southern California and with lots of sunshine and heat, the weed strives. The grass is mostly a summer grass for Torrey Pines and that is why the pros never see it. We all know about the grass during the Genesis Invitational played at Riviera because that course prides itself over Kikuyu grass. But little is said on Torrey Pines since the grass is dormant in January. Back to 2008 the USGA knew about Kikuyu and wanted its tough texture in the rough. Just before the 2008 Farmers, the course was overseeded with ryegrass. For the tournament the grass was high and they kept the rough high in the months leading to the U.S. Open. Unfortunately by keeping the rough high the Kikuyu which was below the rye never got the sunlight to grow in the spring and by the time the U.S. Open came around the Kikuyu was not there. Didn’t matter, even without the grass the Open played tough as the winning score was just 1 under par.
So for this year’s U.S. Open, the USGA wanted to make sure that the Kikuyu was there. After the Farmers, the course shaved the rough way down and reduced the way they overseeded the course with ryegrass. So the Kikuyu has taken hold and the rough is much higher than in 2008 along with its density. So as many that have played Torrey in the last week realize, the Kikuyu won’t be overpowered by the strongest players, thus if you hit it into the rough you will pay a cost, even if you’re between 100 and 150 yards from the green.
So depending on the weather and wind, we should see a very penal U.S. Open, and the odds are great that the winning score will be over par, kind of the way the USGA likes it.

So here are the four categories of importance for someone to win the U.S. Open this week. In January we know the rough was high in the Farmers and the course played hard. So our first stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. That is important because to play well this week it’s determined that if you hit it into the rough, it spells a bogey. From over a 100 yards out, getting it onto the green is important. Also, the course is being played at 7,652 which is long. So not only does a player have to hit it long they have to hit it straight. In January Torrey Pines South ranked 21st in driving distance, meaning the ball didn’t get much roll. And it was 6th in Driving accuracy as only 52.64% of the fairways were hit. The course was 12th in greens in regulation so again hitting greens is important. Taking all of these stats into one is the reason we pick as our first category Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
Our second choice is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green which is a combination of hitting the green from the fairway and round. In looking at Torrey Pines from January the course was 12th in Proximity to hole and 7th in Rough Proximity. This is important because we want to see players hitting the green from not only the fairway but the rough. This is probably a misnomer rough proximity because the rough for this week’s U.S. Open will be more severe than it was in January.
Our third choice is Strokes Gained Putting which tells us how many strokes a player gains with the putter. For last January all the putting stats were at the top showing how hard the greens are to make putts.
Last is scrambling which in January ranked 4th. In winning any U.S. Open the importance of getting up and down when a green is missed is so important.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you have to hit the driver off of most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This gauges how many putts a player gains on the greens. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: This stat shows who gets it up and down the best, an important stat since greens will be missed.

93 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.