BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s back, after missing last year due to COVID-19, the John Deere Classic returns to the PGA Tour.  The Deere was created by local businessmen in Davenport, Iowa, to have a community sponsor event bring on professional golf.  It started small but gained in stature thanks to the communities that supported it. The towns of Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa, lie on the Iowa side of the Mississippi River, while the city of Moline and Rock Island are on the Illinois side.  Down the road is Silvis, the home of TPC Deere Run, which sits along the Rock River.  Many don’t realize that John Deere has its world headquarters in Moline, Illinois, and has been a sponsor of the tournament since 1999.

Since 2000 TPC Deere Run has been the home of the tournament, and the venue is one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters.  Those that hit it long have no real advantage, a matter of fact, those that hit it long have to throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway.  The course plays at 7,268 yards, but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of roll.  In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards.  On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of the last decade have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, and Michael Kim.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000, where the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of the TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After an opening-round 1-under, Wie found herself in a prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day, 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on Number 15 as she proceeded to pull her drive severely, then from their chip into a bunker and eventually, made double bogey. Wie ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 1997, the event has been the week before the British Open, making it always a struggled to get a good field of players.  In 2008 tournament organizers came up with a plan that helps attract players.  They made a charter flight available in which players would be able to leave the Sunday after play.  It’s a comfortable journey as players enjoy big business class seats with minimal hassle in getting to the British Islands since the plane landed at an airport near the venue of the championship.  The charter has been a big hit and helped the tournament land a lot of marquee names.  This year 15 players will get on this charter (could be 16, the highest rank player not in the British open gets exemption).  So those making the trip are: Byeong Hun An, Daniel Berger, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Zach Johnson, Danny Lee, Keith Mitchell, Sebastian Munoz, Kevin Na, Alex Noren, C.T. Pan, Chez Reavie and Kevin Streelman.

• TPC Deere Run
• Silvis, Ill.
• 7,268 yards     Par 35-36–71
• The course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 from the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.
• Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River, and the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.
• In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over a 100 years
• TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of ancient philosophy and feels to the golf course, which stretches to 7,213 yards, an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 74 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.
• The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised, and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.
• In 2019 the TPC Deere Run was the 35th hardest course (out of 49) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.51 average.
• In 2018 the TPC Deere Run was the 46th hardest course (out of 51) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.38 average.
• In 2017 the TPC Deere Run was the 38th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.75 average.
• In 2016 the TPC Deere Run was the 39th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.90 average.
• In 2015 the TPC Deere Run was the 43rd hardest course (out of 52) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.648 average.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69,397.

So the course is easy, in 2015 1,803 birdies (along with 32 eagles) were made during the week, the 3rd most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour.  Last year 1,885 birdies and 58 eagles were made.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Daniel Berger – $11,100
• Sungjae Im – $10,700
• Brian Harman – $10,400
• Cam Davis – $10,100
• Russell Henley – $9,900
• Kevin Streelman – $9,700
• Kevin Na – $9,500
• Alex Noren – $9,300
• Aaron Wise – $9,200
• Si Woo Kim – $9,100
• Seamus Power – $9,000

Another hard week, these events in which the top players don’t play make havoc on picks.  Yes normally you would take a Daniel Berger this week, but at $11,100 you have to think twice because the value is too high.  Same with Sungjae Im at $10,700 going to pass up on him due to the high cost.  Brian Harman at $10,400 is another that you can’t trust that he would give you a top-five, so passing on him.  Cal Davis is $10,100 mostly because he won last week, but last week was last week and I don’t think Cal Davis will be as good.  Now the first person I like is Russell Henley at $9,900.  He was 2nd at John Deere the last time it was played in 2019 and like that he has played well of late, just been struggling on the back nine on Sundays.  I also like Kevin Streelman at $9,700, he too has played well at Deere Run and been playing well of late.  Kevin Na at $9,500 is a toss-up, he has played well at Deere Run in 2016 he was T-8th. But the next year missed the cut.  Na’s game is ok and he is in the same mode he was in during his other wins.  Na is sneaky good, so his price is right. Alex Noren at $9,300 is worth picking, yes he is playing at Deere for the first time, but he has played well of late including a T-4th last week in Detroit.  Aaron Wise at $9,200 doesn’t do much for me, his record is not the best at the Deere and he has played ok of late including a pair of T-9th finishes at Wells Fargo and Memorial, still, I am taking a pass on him.  The same with Si Woo Kim at $9,100, he hasn’t made a cut at Deere in his two starts and he hasn’t shown us much other than a T-9th at the Memorial.  Last is Seamus Power at $9,000, a bit surprised at his price, his best Deere finishes in three starts is T-16th in 2018.  Draftkings is going off the fact that he has played well the last couple of months with a T-8th at the Rocket Mortgage and T-9th at the Byron Nelson.  It doesn’t matter, I am taking a pass on him.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I have no idea about my fixation on Maverick McNealy and the fact that he has one great start in every 15 starts.  McNealy is $8,800 his week and I am thinking of taking him even though his only Deere stat was a T-44th in 2017.  He was T-21st at Rocket but I think he can be so good that I keep riding his train.  On the other end of the spectrum is Lucas Glover who is $8,600.  He has a record, has won a U.S. Open, and is one of the best tee-to-green guys on tour.  He was T-10th at Deere in 2019 and does make a lot of cuts.  He has had two top-tens in the last three months a 4th at the Valero Texas Open and T-8th at Colonial so I will say yes to him this week, even though he is the worst putter on tour.  I am disappointed that Hank Lebioda is priced at $8,400, I thought he would be around $7,400 and I could sneak him in.  He only has played once at Deere and missed the cut in 2019 but his game has been good the last couple of months including a T-5th at Travelers and T-4th at Rocket Mortgage.  I can’t seem to get on the good side of Doc Redman who is $8,200 this week.  Thought I had a winner in him at Rocket Mortgage and he missed the cut.  Going with him for a second week in a row hoping my luck is a bit better.  Jhonattan Vegas at $8,000 is one of those volcanos that go off when you least expect it, Vegas was T-3rd at the Deere in 2014 and hoping for a repeat performance.  He was T-2nd at the Palmetto Championship and T-57th at the U.S. Open so feel he is a good value.  Same with Pat Perez at $7,700, he isn’t going to have a high finish, but he will make the cut, have a lot of birdies, and get you a lot of value for the price.  The same with Steve Stricker at $7,700.  His game is still strong even though he plays on the Champions Tour and he is deadly on this course.  He won’t make a lot of birdies but will make the cut and do ok for you.

Some of the “bargains” this week at John Deere

Ok, we have to dig out players from this group, first like Keith Mitchell at $7,400.  He has played once at Deere and was T-7th in 2008.  The only thing that scares me, he has missed his last three cuts but he also has a T-3rd at the Wells Fargo and I just think the Deere will suit his game more.  Patrick Rodgers is $7,400 and I like that he was runner-up at the John Deere in 2017.  He was great in the first round of Travelers and I think his game in coming into its own.  Roger Sloan at $6,900 is a good buy, he was T-10th at the Deere last year and T-18th in 2015.  For the year he has played well of late, was T-21st last week at Rocket Mortgage.  Sam Ryder at $6,800 is worth the trouble, he was T-2nd at the Deere in 2018 and T-18th in 2019.  He has struggled with his game of late, but feel the happy surroundings of TPC Deere Run will bring the best out of him.  Andrew Landry at $6,800 is also worth the price, he was 3rd at Deere in 2019 and T-8th in 2016.  He too has struggled with his game but hopes that TPC Deere Run brings the best out of him.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Gossett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair), and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007, and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013, but Brian Harman was T-1st in 2014 with Jordan Spieth finishing T-33rd in 2015.  In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-1st in greens hit with 60 of 72 while Bryson Dechambau was T-11th in greens hit with 57 of 72 in 2018 Michael Kim was 3rd hitting 60 greens and in 2019 Dylan Frittelli was T-10th hitting 56 greens.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• A stat that nobody will believe: You would be hard press to know how many top-20 world rank players have won the last 12 John Deere’s?  It’s 6; the only ones not in the top-20 of the world rankings was Jordan Spieth (120th) in 2013, Brian Harman (115) in 2014, Ryan Moore in 2016 who was 59th the week of the Deere and in 2017 with DeChambeau who was 144th, in 2018 Michael Kim (473) and in 2019 with Dylan Frittelli (133).
• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002), Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in their victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997, they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56 while in 2013 Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  In 2014 Brian Harman was T-8th hitting 45 of 56 fairways, in 2015 Jordan Spieth was 39th of 56 and ranked T-60th. In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-10th hitting 46 of 56 fairways while in 2017 Bryson DeChambeau was T-32nd hitting 42 of 56, in 2018 Michael Kim was T-2nd hitting 46 of 56 and in 2019 Dylan Frittelli was T-7th hitting 44 of 56..
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only ten players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006, Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011, Brian Harman in 2014, Spieth in 2015, Moore in 2016 and Michael Kim in 2018.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third-round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.  In 2017 DeChambeau was T-5th, 4 shots back, Michael Kim was the leader by five in 2018 and Dylan Frittelli was T-5th and two back of the leader.   So don’t count on the third round leader to win.
• The myth of John Deere was to think about an underdog, or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth winning and in 2017 with Bryson DeChambeau.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can change the outlook of a tournament.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first-time winners.  Since 1973, 23 rookie winners including eleven of the last 20 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013, Brian Harman in 2014 and Bryson DeChambeau in 2017.  Michael Kim continued the streak in 2018 as did Dylan Frittelli in 2019.
• One last essential element, the winner this week will be making lots of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14 while in 2015 the course gave up 1,803 birdies.  In 2016 1,747 birdies were made while in 2017 there was 1,805.  In 2018 there were 1,865 and in 2019 1.885 so look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• The weather has been off and on in the last month.  Still, the Silvis area is looking for the same kind of weather that hit the Rocket Mortgage, scattered thunderstorms every day which will make things harder.