Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We finally ended the majors season kind of the way it started. Last August, when Collin Morikawa won the PGA Championship, he played in the championship for the first time.  He was very impressive, shooting a bogey-free final round 64 to beat Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson by two shots. At the British Open, Morikawa did almost the same thing, a bogey-free 66 for a two-shot victory over Jordan Spieth. Both times he made every putt he saw. Morikawa had four crucial saves for pars in both events, and on both occasions, he didn’t show any signs of being pressured. No matter what stats will come about how great Morikawa is, the only one that will matter the most is that he won two of the four majors in his debut start, a remarkable fact.

For Louis Oosthuizen, who has been in contention for the third straight major, Sunday proved too much for him as he shot 71 to drop into a T-3rd. Jon Rahm popped up the leaderboard on Sunday, shooting a 66 that frankly could have been a 61 or 62 if he made the five putts inside ten feet. In hindsight, Rahm could have the best tee-to-green game right now, but his putting has hurt him a lot. Jordan Spieth also needs a mention. Since February, his game has been very sharp, and he could have easily won at Royal St. George’s if it wasn’t for Morikawa. Spieth’s 267 total would have won any major except for five of them, so he played great, and we will be interesting to see if Jordan won’t win the FedExCup and be even better for 2022. Last, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson played well as Johnson had his best finish since winning the 2020 Masters last November. It will be interesting for both Koepka and Johnson to see if both are a significant force in the FedExCup playoffs and race.

So what is this week really about?

So after the excitement of The British Open, things will get pretty thin this week at the 3M Open.  Last year the 3M Open had all the golf enthusiasm starting up after COVID-19 struck the golf season down for three months.  The 3M was one of the early tournaments when golf resumed and it was a big success, even though no fans were allowed on the course.  Kind of hard for a tournament that prides itself as a community event.

This week, the 3M Open has the dubious task of being wedge in between the British Open and the Olympics, with the FedEx St. Jude invitational the week after that.  So for most of the elite of golf, they will pass on this event, even though it will be a sellout with a lot of folks from Minnesota rooting them on.  Of those who played in the British Open, 28 are making the trip to Minnesota with nobody playing the 3M planning on playing in the Olympics.  The field is pretty good for what it is, as marquee players like Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Stewart Cink, Sergio Garcia, and Bubba Watson are in the field.  But the reality of this week is that it’s all about grabbing as many FedExCup points as possible.  For those outside the top-120 like #120 Rickie Fowler, #122 Gary Woodland, #125 Charles Howell III, Last year’s champion #127 Michael Thompson, #136 Ryan Moore, and #140 Cameron Champ, they need to step up their games if they want to be at Liberty National next month for the first leg of the FedExCup the Barclays.

Course information:

• TPC Twin Cities
• Blaine, Minnesota.
• 7,468 yards     Par 35-36–71

2019 was the first year of the 3M open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and remained successful when switched to the PGA Tour last year. The one thing about the course, it played in 2019 to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below its par. Ranking wise it’s T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier. What happened in the events the first year was a straightforward course that catered to long hitters. But the course was a bit different last year. Rough was up, and the PGA Tour tucked away to pins. So more traditional players that didn’t hit is long did well. The scoring average was up to 69.95, and the rank of the course also went up as the course ranked 23rd hardest.

Last year because of the summertime, the course was dry and fast, that along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year and temperatures in the 90s help make the course easier. Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs meaning players have to be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bombers haven. The greens are a bit small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again look for players to find the greens in regulation and have deceit putts at birdies. Last year, 1,769 birdies were, a lot less than in 2019. 36 eagles were also made, good for a course with only three par 5s.

Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in the playoff the tee), bunkers (14 in total), and rough. Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have their way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players. There is a total of 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 of them guarding the greens.

The big question that needs to be answered will be if the fans come back and are happy to have a PGA Tour event. In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19 and a half under par, and that was in tournaments that were only 54 holes. In 2010 David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 for a 25 under par total. The Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials have made some profound changes in 2018. Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,468 yards, but par has been reduced to 71. Still, for the longest hitters in the world, this won’t present any problems. Another thing that tournament officials are doing, holes 7, 10, and 16 have tees so that the holes could play between 280 and 315 yards, making them drivable, but the holes are well guarded by water so that they won’t be automatic birdie holes. The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so the will not be automatic birdie holes.

Of the players in the field last year, half of them have returned. So that means the other half have never played here and will have to learn some local knowledge, which tends to help those who haven’t won much. I also feel that the winner will be the player you least expected, and that turned out to be so true last year as Matthew Wolff, a player that got in on a sponsor exemption, won the tournament.

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT VITAL STATS THAT ARE IMPORTANT FOR THOSE PLAYING AT TPC TWIN CITIES.

Based on the most vital stats from TPC Twin Cities, based on data from last year’s 3M Open, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021.

Last year was the second year of the 3M Open, and it was a popular venue for a Champions Tour event before making the switch for 2019. The switch proved to be very successful as the community got in the back of the tournament and made it a mainstay for the Minnesota area. Now the heart and soul of the event is the course, TPC Twin Cities. It’s a course most players like because they can produce a low score on it. Last year the scoring average was 69.95, a full shot under par, and it was the 23rd hardest course on tour. Winner Michael Thompson produced a winning score of 19 under par, and he had 22 birdies for the week. The previous year, it played to a 69.45 scoring average, a shot and a half below its par. Ranking wise it’s T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier.

With the course playing that easy, it’s not surprising to see that the course had more birdies made on it (1,976) than any other course in 2019. In 2020 the course had 1,769 birdies, placing it 36th

So the stats make the point that this is a bombers course. The same in 2020 as 1,769 birdies made it the 36th hardest, with only five other courses on the PGA Tour making more birdies. So it’s important to note, making birdies could be one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Twin Cities.

In looking at our four categories, we have picked four that are needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Gree in which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year the average drive was 296.0 yards for all drives and ranked 21st, meaning that only 17 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 24th with 62.81% of the drives in the fairway. Last year’s winner Michael Thompson ranked 46th in driving distance and T-22nd inaccuracy, so he ranked 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. As for 2019 winner Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in Driving Distance and T-31st in Accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course that greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 33rd on tour with 71.62% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Thompson hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-3rd. In 2019, winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-6th. Kevin Streelman hit the most greens, 64 of the 72, but finished T-34th.

Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting which is an essential part of the game. Last year the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.767 as the course ranked 24th. It averaged 29.40 putts per round which ranked it 11th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 28th. Thompson last year took 115 putts which ranked T-21st, and in Strokes Gained Putting was ranked 1st. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked 3rd, making 61 of 64 putts. In 2019 Wolff took 115 putts which ranked T-25th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 39th. In the putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.

The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,769 birdies were made on the course, with only five other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 36 eagles, which ranked T-26th. Last year’s winner Michael Thompson made 22 birdies ranked T-7th and didn’t make an eagle. So Thompson was T-12th in Par Breaker. In 2019 TPC Twin Cities had 52 eagles, which ranked 43rd at it ranked 39th in Par Breakers. Nate Lashley made the most birdies of anyone in the field, 28, so his Par Breakers rank is 1st. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was 1st in Par Breakers.

Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and his eagle on the 72nd hole was why he won the tournament by a shot. Thompson played great and cruised to a two-shot victory.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 125 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2021.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to get all players stats

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Louis Oosthuizen – $10,900
• Tony Finau – $10.900
• Patrick Reed – $10,300
• Sergio Garcia – 9,900
• Matthew Wolff – $9,700
• Cameron Tringale – $9,500
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,300
• Cameron Davis – 9,200
• Bubba Watson – $9,100
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,000

This week will be hard to play Draftkings. It’s always hard in events that don’t have many marquee names because then you have many players priced as middle tier are now the favorites. So don’t take one of the high price players even though the feeling is good about Johnson, Oosthuizen, Finau, Reed, and Garcia. I realize it’s a terrible contradiction in terms in one part, I talk about how I feel that Johnson, Oosthuizen, and Finau are the best players to win, but here in this section, I am saying not to take these players. That’s because of the salary cap, the price is way too high of a gamble. So look at it that way, hey at the end of the day, the winner like last year with Michael Thompson would be someone you never dreamed would win.

So in picking your six players for DraftKings right off the bat we have serious questions on Dustin Johnson at $11,500.  Yes, he played well at the British Open, but still, he is not the Dustin Johnson we are used to.  Fresh in our memories is the fact that he barely avoided shooting a score of 80 last year and withdrew from the tournament.  So it’s a big risk taking him at $11,500 and because of that I am passing on him.  Louis Oosthuizen at $10,900 should do well, but the money is too high.  I also wonder if there will be a whiplash effect on Oosthuizen who was very disappointed with his play on Sunday.  He has been going strong for two months now, could it be over?  Hope not but not picking him because the price is too high.  Same with Tony Finau at $10.900.  He has been in a terrible slump the last three months and just because he finished T-15th at the British Open doesn’t mean he is a world-beater again.  Patrick Reed at $10,300 is also too high, he missed the cut at the British and hasn’t played well since finishing 5th at the Memorial.  So it’s a no for Reed, also a big no on Sergio Garcia at 9,900.  Since finishing T-5th at the Match Play in March, Garcia has played in eight events, making just four cuts with a best finish of T-19th at the U.S. and British Open.  So it’s a big no for me with Sergio.  Have to also take a pass on the defending champion Matthew Wolff at $9,700.  He is just getting back and hasn’t proved that he is ready to return to the stage of being a winner again.  Now after a big no for six players, Cameron Tringale at $9,500 is a big yes.  He was T-3rd last year and has since been ok.  He was T-14th at the Rocket Mortgage and T-26th at the British despite shooting 71-71 over the weekend at Royal St. George’s.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,300 is a yes, he was T-3rd last year and has been steady on the PGA Tour, he finished T-12th at the British Open.  Cameron Davis at 9,200 is a yes, he was T-12th last year at the 3M and won just two weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage.  At the John Deere, he was T-55th and took last week off.  Bubba Watson at $9,100 is a big no, hasn’t shown us much this year, and is not worth the price.  Last is Robert MacIntyre at $9,000, despite not playing in this event, he has had a good season including a T-8th last week at Royal St. George’s.  He is odds on to be the next European player to win his tour card by winning a PGA Tour event.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I really like Rickie Fowler at $8,900 even though he has never played in this event.  Think his game is getting stronger every day and I think he will contend this week, maybe even win.  Keegan Bradley at $8,800 is a good pick, but his only 3M start was a T-46th in 2019.  Stewart Cink at $8,700 also finished T-46th in his only 3M start last year.  He has had a great season and this is a course he can score on.  Maverick McNealy at $8,400 is a rookie to the 3M but one I think will do well this week.  Dylan Frittelli at $8,300 is also a player to watch, he was T-46th in this event in 2019 and T-18th last year.  Last week in the British Open he was T-5th so playing well.  Charl Schwartzel at $8,200 is worth the price, he was T-3rd last year at 3M and has been steady all year long.  Luke List at $8,100 has been playing well and despite not play great at 3M (cut in 2019, T-32nd in 2020) was T-4th at the John Deere and T-5th at the Barbasol.  Also like Hank Lebioda at $7,900, his play was not impressive at 3M (T-34th in 2019, T-26th in 2020) but in his last four events was T-5th at Travelers, T-4th at the Rocket Mortgage, and T-8th at John Deere.  Have to say that not many folks will pick him this week.  Also don’t think J.T. Poston at $7,700 will get many smiling faces but he was runner-up at Barbasol.  Last in this category have to like Steve Stricker at $7,500, he is good in events like this.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the 3M

Slim pickings, basically we are looking at someone that can make the cut.  One person that fits the bill is defending champion Michael Thompson at $7,400, he should make the cut this week.  Have to think that Chez Reavie at $7,400, Matt Kuchar at $7,300 should make the cut.  The same with Beau Hossler who is $7,300, Kyle Stanley at $7,300 and James Hahn at $7,100.  One last person to slip onto this list is Sam Ryder at $7,000.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE SECRETS OF WHAT IT TAKES TO PLAY WELL AT THE 3M OPEN:

The key stat for the winner:

• In 2020 we told you that looking at the seniors that played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those that won and finished in the top-five were high up in hitting greens. Last year not only did winner Matthew Woof hit it long, but he hit 60 of the 72 greens, which ranked T-6th. In looking at those in the top-ten in Greens in Regulation for 2020, Aaron Wise (4th), Emiliano Grillo (5th), Russell Henley (7th), Will Gordon (8th), and Kyle Stanley (10th) are in the field. For last year Micheal Thompson and company did it with precision firing at the pin and putting.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With the greens not having many undulations, good putters will do very well. In 2019 runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the least of anyone in the field. Look for those at the top of the Strokes Gained Putting to play well. Here are those in the top ten of that list playing this week: Denny McCarthy (1st) and Andrew Putnam (3rd).
• Another essential item that we saw in 2020 and with the seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles. Look for those players that week in and week out make a lot of birdies and eagles. In looking at the top-ten from the Par Breakers stat, we have Seam Power (7th).
• As we have stressed, this event won’t see many marquee names on top of the leaderboard. For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff did last year and Michael Thompson did in 2020
• This week’s weather should be good, with temperatures going into the mid-90s with just a little bit of humidity. Possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon, Other than that, it’s a good week on tap.