BlogWyndham Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For some, the Wyndham could be the last rodeo that it wasn’t last year.

Yes, it’s come to this, the Wyndham Championship is the last regular event before the FedExCup Playoffs which start next week.  In past years it spelled due or die, if you weren’t in the top-125 after this week you would be banished to the Korn Ferry Finals to play for your PGA Tour life for the following year.  For those that left the Wyndham outside the top-175, you were out of luck, not a chance of redemption other than waiting for December and trying to earn a spot on the Korn Ferry Tour in their qualifying tournament.

Last year this week wasn’t the last of the year.  Because of COVID-19, the PGA Tour decided to extend all memberships for another year, so for those that didn’t get into the top-125 they didn’t get to play in the playoffs but still kept their PGA Tour card.  For players like Jhonattan Vegas, who finished 139th in the FedEx Cup points list, he was granted membership for 2021 and is today 51st on the points list and has not only secured his PGA Tour card for 2022 but can go deep into the playoffs.  An even bigger case was Stewart Cink.  Last year he was 144th on the point list and would have had to go to the Korn Ferry Finals, but he was able to save his tour card and look what happened.  He hired his son to caddy for him and his game came alive, he won twice in 2021 and is 19th on the points list, and has a great shot to make it to East Lake.  Seamus Power was 151st on the points list last year, he is 73rd this year.  Branden Grace was 165th last year on the points list, this year he is 56th.  Hudson Swafford was 167th last year, came out early, and won the Corales Puntacan Resort Championship, and is 55th.  One person that was very happy with the reprieve was Chris Kirk.  He was 194th on the FedEx points list, he would have had no option of playing on the PGA Tour, he would have had to go to Korn Ferry Q-School and try to get on the Korn Ferry Tour.  Instead, he came out in 2021 and finished in the top-ten four times including a runner-up at the Sony Open, and now he is 50th on the FedEx Cup playoff list and life is great for him, courtesy of COVID-19 altering the rules.

The most important thing…

… to do is maintain your PGA Tour card, either winning events or being in the top-125 of the FedEx Cup points list.  If you fall out of the top-125, you’re in danger of not playing in 2022.

Showing the importance of that, of the 156 in the field so far, all 30 players between 120 and 150 on the FedEx point list are playing at the Wyndham.  The man on the bubble in the 125th spot is Bo Hoag.  These are the people that this week is about, guys like Matt Kuchar, who is 124th and looking to get into the playoffs, something he has done every year since the playoffs were first started in 2007.  Kuchar’s future is not in danger. He will play on the PGA Tour next year no matter what happens. Still, it’s a prideful achievement to say you have played in all 15 FedEx Cup playoffs.

For years the numbers that could claim that have shrunk.  Kuchar is one of nine players that has participated in every Fed Ex playoffs.  Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Brandt Snedeker, and Charley Hoffman have qualified for this year.  But for Kuchar and four others, they are all in danger.  For one player, their streak will die this week.  Charles Howell III is 137th.  He decided not to play this week and will not get into the top-125 and get to the playoffs.  He will still play next year on tour, but his season is over. For Adam Scott, who is 121st on the point list, Matt Kuchar, along with #137 rank Justin Rose and #142 rank Ryan Moore, these four will try to maintain their streaks and play next week at the Northern Trust.

For them, it’s about pride, but for others, this week is a lot more serious.  For those on the bubble, this week is about what happens to them next year, they are playing for their existence.  If they don’t happen to make it into the top-125, they will find themselves without a PGA Tour card and being force into a three-week living hell at the Korn Ferry Finals starting next week.  The Korn Ferry Finals is the modern equivalent to the old PGA Tour qualifying tournament.  Players who finish 126-200 on the PGA Tour’s FedExCup points list after the Wyndham will have to play in three Korn Ferry finals and contend for 25 spots to regain their PGA Tour cards for 2022.  Making it even harder, there will be about 75 players off the Korn Ferry Tour, looking to earn one of those 25 spots onto the PGA Tour for 2022.

Here is a look at some of those on the bubble, with their current rankings. #119 Brice Garnett, #120 C.T. Pan, #122 Ryan Armour #123 Patrick Rodgers, #125 Bo Hoag, #128 Scott Piercy, #129 Camilo Villegas, #131 Roger Sloan, #132 Chesson Hadley, #133 Cameron Percy, #134 Austin Cook, and #135 Chase Seiffert.

For those that don’t make it into the top-125, there is one safety net they have to maintain, being 126 to 150 on the FedEx Point list.  They will keep limited playing privileges for 2022, and just in case they don’t make the Korn Ferry finals top-25, they aren’t out of luck like those that finish below 151.

In gambling terms, this brings in a different variable.  In figuring the correct equation, you have to consider the nerves of some of the players and what this week means for a player, and the pressure it places on them.  Some examples of this, last year Jim Herman came to the Wyndham 192nd on the points list.  He was going to maintain his PGA Tour card in 2021 due to his win at the Barbasol Championship.  He wanted to play in the FedEx Cup playoffs because for each, there is bonus money for those in the top-120.  Those in last place earn $101,000, which is a nice bonus.  So Herman was a great pick despite being 192nd on the money list because playing the Wyndham was about money, not his future.  Herman won the Wyndham, climbed up to 54, and played in the first two playoff events, finishing 64th and earning a $150,000 bonus. So could lightning strike twice?   You never know Herman comes into this week 171st in the point standings, so he has to win to make it back to the playoffs.  A couple of others to watch, Sean O’Hara is 167th on the list, and after his T-9th finish at the Barracuda, could be primed to win this week.  Same with Vincent Whaley, who was also T-9th at the Barracuda and is 139th on the FedEx Cup list. One other to watch this week is Bo Van Pelt, he finished T-11th at Barracuda and is 146th in the FedEx Cup.

Tournament information:

Created in 1938, the 2021 edition of the Wyndham Championship will be the 83rd tournament. Initially known as the Greater Greensboro Open, the tournament has blossomed from its small roots. The event was the vision of the Greensboro Jaycee’s Chapter, which was but a year old when the idea was conceived. Many were in favor of the creation of a golf tournament; however, no one took steps to create an event until, at a meeting in the summer of 1937, Joseph Bryan put up capital to back the event. The PGA Tour placed the tournament on the 1938 schedule.

If Joseph Bryan is credited with being the backer, then Sam Snead is the owner of the event. His eight victories at Greensboro, including the inaugural event, were a record for most wins by a player at one tournament until Tiger tied him in several events. The Greensboro-based tournament had been played every year except for 1943 and 1944 when the event paused because of World War II.

The tournament name held until 1988 when Kmart became the title sponsor, and the event became known as the Kmart Greater Greensboro Open.  After an eight-year run, Chrysler took over in 1996, and in 2003 the Greater was dropped in favor of Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. That name held until 2006 when Daimler Chrysler pulled out as title sponsor, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over. Starting with the 2014 Wyndham Championship, it became the last event before the playoffs, so it has ramifications for the FedEx Cup Championship. The Wyndham Championship is the last event in which golfers, vying for position in the playoff system, can earn points.

For 31 years between 1977 and 2007, Forest Oaks Country Club hosted the event, but it wasn’t considered “fan-friendly,” and the course wasn’t very memorable.  One of the reasons that Forest Oaks got the event in 1977 from Sedgefield was because the course was too short and didn’t have the room and parking to handle big crowds.  It was a big disappointment for the members when they lost the event, and many had been lobbying to get it back.  With Wyndham taking over the sponsorship and having its offices nearby, and the membership invested $3 million in renovating the course and opened the doors for the return.  When the course was reopened in 2007 to rave reviews, it was decided to change venues for 2008 and has held the event ever since.

Course information:

• Sedgefield Country Club
• Greensboro, N.C.
• 7,127 yards     Par 35-35–70

Between 1938 and 1976 Sedgefield held the Wyndham Championship 26 times and was considered a tremendous old Donald Ross course.  Unfortunately, the course was short and small for galleries, so the event moved on.  Still, the course was considered a gem, and for years membership tried to lure it back.

Sedgefield founded in 1925, is located in the rolling hills of Greensboro’s Sedgefield neighborhood. The club has hosted many amateur golf tournaments as well as 32 years of the Wyndham Championship. In addition to its Donald Ross-designed golf course, Sedgefield is perhaps best known for its signature clubhouse, a Tudor-style building housed in the framework of the original Sedgefield Inn built in 1925, the Atlantic Coast Conference was founded in this building in 1953.

A couple of years ago the club entrusted North Carolina course architect Kris Spence with the job of restoring the course back to its original Donald Ross design while making adjustments to bring the course in line with the modern game.  Spence’s renovation added another 400 yards to Sedgefield, bringing its length to 7,130 yards. Par was 70 as the 18th hole was converted into a par 4.

Emphasis must be put on ball placement in the fairway to get the appropriate angle to the green. The greens at Sedgefield are very undulating and slope from back to front, with many falling off the edges into collection areas.  In 2013 Sedgefield played to a 69.383 scoring average, more than a shot under par for the field.  It ranked as the 23rd hardest of 43 courses for 2013.  In 2016 it played to a scoring average of 69.209 and ranked 38th out of the 48 courses for the year.  In 2017 the course played very easy to a 68.18 average and ranked 41st hardest course. In 2018 it played to a 68.69 average and ranked 40th.  In 2019 it played to an average of 68.18 and was 41st.  Last year it played to a 68.78 average and was 29th hardest.

So the course is challenging, but scores will be low.

It will be an exciting scenario for the players that a Donald Ross course will be used to get players ready for next month’s Tour Championship that will be played on another Ross course at Eastlake, outside of Atlanta.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Sedgefield:

This is based on the most vital stats from Sedgefield C.C., based on data from last year’s Wyndham Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2021.
For the second week in a row, the tour plays a course that driving it straight matters a lot, the key to playing well at Sedgefield is to hit it straight and position your drives for the shot into the green. Just like last week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, hitting fairways and greens is important A look at the list of champions at the Wyndham since the event went back to Sedgefield in 2008 shows that the list of winners are guys that either hit is short and straight or in the case of hitting it long players like Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim, and 2017 winner Henrik Stenson. Last year’s winner Jim Herman doesn’t hit it that far, plus he has a reputation of only playing well once or twice a year, and in most cases, he seems to win. Last year Herman was the biggest longshot winner of 2020, strolling into Sedgefield 192nd on the FedExCup point list. In his previous 18 starts, he only made seven cuts and his best finish was T-27th in the winners-only Sentry Tournament of Champions. He hadn’t played in the Wyndham since 2015 but strolled in like he owned the joint. He not only led the field in greens hit with 63, but he was also straight off the tee finishing 4th in driving accuracy. So of course there is no rhyme or reason for how this happened. Just like the clock striking midnight and turning the Princess into a pumpkin, the same happened to Herman as he missed the cut at his next stop at the Northern Trust and this year has only made 11 of 21 cuts. Another incredible story was 2019 winner J.T. Poston. He is a very short hitter, coming into the week T-165th in driving distance. But when he is playing well he hits it straight.
Another important aspect of driving for the long hitters, the holes that dogleg needs players to lay it up to avoid going through the fairway and it’s always best to be in the fairways. The course is tree line and that is more of a hazard than the rough which is not as penal as it could be. This year it has been pretty dry Since mid-July it has only rain three times, on July 19th when 2 inches of rain fell, August 1st with a quarter of an inch, and August 9th when three-quarters of an inch fell. So the rough won’t be as high as last year and the course will be dry and fast with the ball running down the fairways.
Like any other great Donald Ross course the greens are tough, first in hitting them, but if you miss them it’s a hard up and down. The greens are also pretty flat and lots of putts are made, by good and bad putters. So it’s a course that favors short hitters, those that do scramble well, and average putters. Last week was a perfect example, winner Abraham Ancer was able to hit 51 of 72 greens which rank T-5th, and scramble well getting it up and down 18 of the 21 greens he missed to rank 1st and putt well ranking 10th in Strokes Gained Putting. All of this added up to Ancer making 20 birdies, six best for the week. The same will have to happen this week for someone to win. One thing about Sedgefield, it’s a fun course to play and yes it’s challenging. It’s not going to be taxing like TPC Southwind was last week when it played to a scoring average of 69.05, a shot under par. Last year Sedgefield played to a 68.78 average, a shot below par as it was the 29th (out of 41) hardest course on the PGA Tour (which meant that 12 courses played easier on). The bad news for players, this week it’s back to hot, humid conditions with temperatures in the low-90s and a 24% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday going up to 45% over the weekend.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because at Sedgefield putting the ball in play off the tee is very important, probably one of the most important items on this Donald Ross course. Last year’s winner Jim Herman was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, as he was 4th in Driving Accuracy and T-1st in Greens in Regulation. Then getting the ball on the greens is important and we all know how hard it is to hit a Donald Ross green. That is why next up is scrambling, because the greens are hard to hit, when you miss the green you have to get it up and down to win. Last year Sedgefield ranked 16th in Scrambling and our winner Herman proved to have his only real problem as he was 4 of 9 for the week ranked 71st in scrambling. Our next stat is Strokes Gained Putting which is important, last year Sedgefield was T-10th in putting average while Herman was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, so to play well it’s important to putt well on this course. Last we have birdies, last year 1,850 birdies were made, only three other courses on the PGA Tour last year saw more birdies made. So we are using the Birdie average for our final category.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Look who picks up the most strokes on the greens.

*Birdie average: Players who average the most birdies made per round.

Here are the 141 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to show all 141 player stats

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Sedgefield

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Hideki Matsuyama – $11,000
• Louis Oosthuizen – $10,7000
• Webb Simpson – $10,600
• Will Zalatoris – $10,300
• Patrick Reed – $10,200
• Jason Kokrak – $10,000
• Brian Harman – $9,900
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,700
• Sungjae Im – $9,600
• Russell Henley – $9,400
• Matthew Wolff – $9,300
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Si Woo Kim – $9,100
• Bubba Watson – $9,000

Very interesting pick, of course, if you can find a way of parlaying Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson you are OK, but that is very tough.  Yes in a way I like Hideki Matsuyama at $11,000, over the last two weeks he has come within a putt of winning a bronze medal and last week win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.  Now Matsuyama has mixed results at the Wyndham, he was T-3rd in 2016 and T-11th in 2018, but on the other hand missed the cut in 2019, ’15, and ’14. Still, Hideki is playing great and this course is perfect for him so I like his chances of winning.  I don’t have the same feeling for Louis Oosthuizen at $10,7000.  Why he is playing this week is a bit of a mystery, he played last week and you know he will play in all three playoff events so why not take this week off?  Doesn’t matter, Oosthuizen has never played in the Wyndham, and the course should be good for him.  But what bugs me was Oosthuizen in the final round of the WGC-FedEx.  After months of great play all of a sudden, he shot a 74 in the final round.  Just have to wonder if maybe we have seen the end of his three-month streak in which he was runner-up four times.  So it’s best to pass on him.  As for Webb Simpson at $10,600 it’s a solid buy.  Simpson loves this course, he won in 2011 and since then in nine starts has not been out of the top-11 twice.  Last year he was T-3rd, in 2019 he was T-2nd.  In 2018 he was T-2nd and in 2017 he was 3rd so you have to think he will give you a top-five, look for many people betting on him. Lots of money will also be bet on Will Zalatoris at $10,300.  I first was worried about him, his back has been a problem since the British Open, but Zalatoris played four solid rounds at the WGC-FedEx finishing T-8th.  Have to bring this up because it shows how rules sometimes are dumb.  This will be his last start on the PGA Tour in 2021. Despite earnings of just short of $3.5 million and earning 1,270 points which would place him in the 25th spot.  But Zalatoris is still considered a Korn Ferry player, he could tee it up in the Korn Ferry finals the next three weeks, but can’t play in the FedEx playoffs, oh well. Patrick Reed is $10,200 withdrew on Tuesday.  Jason Kokrak at $10,000 could be a good pick, after years of playing terribly at Sedgefield, he was T-6th in 2019 and T-15th last year.  I won’t take him because his cost is too high.  The same with Brian Harman at $9,900, he has a T-3rd in 2013 and a T-6th in 2019.  But he also missed the cut four times in his last seven starts, plus the money is too much.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,700 is a big no for me, his season has been a bust and the only reason he is playing this week is because he is 136th in the FedEx race and needs a good finish this week to get into the top-125.

Sungjae Im at $9,600 is worth the price, in his two Wyndham starts he was T-9th last year and T-6th the previous year.  Russell Henley at $9,400 is an interesting pick, he was T-9th last year and has been consistent all year.  He is well-rested, playing his last event at the British Open where he missed the cut.  Matthew Wolff at $9,300 is not a good pick, yes he could make a lot of birdies, but he can also miss the cut, there is no guarantee for him this week.  Adam Scott at $9,200 is an interesting story, he is playing at the Wyndham for the first time since 2015, the only reason he is playing this week is to make the playoffs, currently, he is 121st in the rankings and could fall out if he misses the cut.  A good buy is Si Woo Kim at $9,100.  He was T-3rd last year, 5th in 2019, and won in 2016 so that kind of tells you he can play well in this event.  Last we have Bubba Watson at $9,000, why he is playing this week is weird, he hasn’t played here since 2009 when he missed the cut in both 2008 and ’09, so take a pass on him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Want a couple of sleeper bets?  Have a couple for you, first is Robert Macintyre at $8,900.  This Scottish player could be a star in the future and he is just getting started.  This will be his first start, but he has quietly had a great year.  He finished T-8th at the British Open, did miss the cut at 3M Open but was T-15th at last week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  Another sleeper pick is Kevin Na at $8,800. He hasn’t played at Wyndham since he finished T-4th in 2017, but he was also T-10th in 2016 and T-18th in 2010.  His game is perfect for this course, he won at Waialae earlier this year and was T-2nd at the John Deere, courses that are a lot like Sedgefield.  Na was T-23rd last week in Memphis so I like him a lot.  A lot is riding for Rickie Fowler who is $8,600.  What more can I say, his poor play is just about two years old and in the last couple of months has shown some sides of breaking out of the slump.  He really needs a good finish to get him into the Playoffs, which he has been to every year going back to 2010.  He has played just once at the Wyndham and he was T-22nd in 2016.  We thought that maybe he was breaking out of the slump with his T-8th at the PGA Championship and then T-11th at the Memorial.  But since then hasn’t cracked the top-25 in four starts, best finish was T-32nd at the Rocket Mortgage.  Kevin Kisner is at $8,400, he was T-3rd last year, T-42nd in 2017, and T-10th in 2016.  I know that Sedgefield may not be the type of course that Sebastian Munoz will play on, but at $8,200 the price is right and he was T-4th at the Olympics and T-4th at the British Open.  Mito Pereira is worth the $7,900, he was T-39th at the Barracuda, but before that was T-4th at the Olympics, T-6th at the 3M open, and T-5th at the Barbasol.  Past champions J.T. Poston at $7,800 could be a good play for this week, we know he can play well at Sedgefield, but of late has been good, T-28th at the 3M Open and 2nd at the Barbasol. One last player in this category is Harold Varner III at $7,500.  He has had a couple of good finishes at the Wyndham including a T-7th in 2021.  He has done ok this year, was T-2nd at RBC Heritage, Harbour Town, a course4 that is a lot like Sedgefield.  He was T-15th last week at the Barracuda.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Wyndham

C.T. Pan at $7,400 is a player of interest, he was T-2nd in the 2018 Wyndham, and on tour this year how can we forget him winning the seven-man playoff at the Olympics to finish 3rd and earn a bronze medal.  Doc Redman at $7,000 was T-3rd last year at Sedgefield and of late his game has had mixed reactions including a T-2nd at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree.  Defending champion Jim Herman has not been shown love by Draftkings as Herman is $6,900.  Now taking him is a bold move because he has missed ten of 21 cuts this year, but since he won the Wyndham in a similar fashion, he can do it today.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wyndham Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Sedgefield is a very versatile course. Length is not critical because the course plays at about 7,127 yards, just a notch below average for a PGA Tour event. With length not being a factor, players are afforded the opportunity to use either driver or long iron off the tee. The most critical thing for the field is to manage the slope of the course. To do that, ball control and accuracy are essential.
• Now this tournament was made famous by Sam Snead, who won it eight times, the PGA Tour record for the most victories by a player in a single event. Snead captured the inaugural event in 1938, and when he won it for the eighth time in 1965, he became the oldest winner in PGA Tour history at 52 years, 10 months and eight days.
• Between 1949 and 1965 Snead was never higher than 8th and won $37,827 or about the same amount that the player in 28th place will win this week.  For the record, if Snead would have played all 17 events at the present purse of $6.4 million his Greensboro earnings would have been around $8 million.  Oh, Snead is the only winner in Greensboro history to defend his championship but Jim Herman could join Snead as back-to-back Wyndham winners but I wouldn’t put much money on this happening.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Length is not an issue so that open’s things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver, and settles for using a long iron for control. Past winners of the event are some of the best iron players on tour. The likes of Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Mark O’Meara, Davis Love III, and Steve Elkington have hoisted the trophy. Look for the winner to be able to manage the surroundings, as the undulations are the most challenging part of the golf course. There is a reason that 2015 winner Davis Love III won at age 51 and that is experience.  The past winners from Sedgefield except for 2019 winner J.T. Poston and Arjun Atwal in 2010 are all experience players so look for someone like that to win.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium at this Donald Ross gem, just like it was last week at TPC Southwind.   Hitting lots of greens goes a long way at the Wyndham Championship.  Look for the winner to hit greens in bunches.
• North Carolina and the Greensboro area in the summertime is rife with heat and humidity, primarily since it was hot last week. This will be important because the bermudagrass greens will bake making the undulated greens even more challenging.
• Talking about the weather, this could be a problem for this week.  It will be hot and humid all week at Greensboro, but the major problem is thunderstorms which will be a threat each day.