BlogFortinet Champ. Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

A shame that defending champion Stewart Cink won’t be here to defending his title.  Last year was a great surprise to see Stewart win, but it was nice to see him rolled through the season winning again at the Heritage and playing in the Tour Championship.  A big reason for Cink’s newfound game was having his son Reagan on the bag as his caddy.  What was supposed to be a one-off deal turned into a year-old commitment. He caddied for Dad most of the year.  During that time, he got married and as a Georgia Tech graduate, he was looking forward to a normal job and an everyday life with his wife.  Cink finished the year with Reagan on the bag for what they called the last time at the Tour Championship.  Cink finished T-26th and said he was taking some time off.  First is his other son’s Conner wedding this week (preventing him from defending), and after that, he needs a bit of rest and time to figure out who his next caddie will be.  Despite wanting another life, Reagan may change his mind and work for Dad. Who knows, maybe his other son Conner could caddie.  But as of right now, he is only 18 months away from the Champions Tour, and since his game is excellent, he is healthy, and he still enjoys the rigors of traveling the country, the future looks bright for Cink.  As for betting him in future DraftKings games for the year, he has been a low-cost alternative that makes cuts and earns many DraftKings points.

About the Fortinet Championship:

This event was first called the Fry’s.Com Open and started in Scottsdale, Arizona, in 2007 and after three years at Grayhawk transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to its sponsor’s headquarters in San Jose.  The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home as it’s been a dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems forced the event not to be played on the ultra-private course that very few had ever seen.  So CordeValle was to be a short-term fix and was until the event moved to Napa for 2015.  At the time, Napa was a short-term solution as the Institute Golf Course would get ready to hold the event. Still, after the success at Silverado and Frys dropping sponsorship, the event signed up Safeway as the title sponsor and, for the foreseeable future, will stay at the Silverado Resort, which is very popular with the players.  Last year Safeway gave up its sponsorship and a company called Fortinet took over.  For anyone wondering what “Fortinet” does, they develop and sell cybersecurity solutions based in Sunnyvale, California.  They had revenue of $2.6 billion in 2020, so we can say they are a very successful company and everyone would agree a good change.

Course information:

Many will not remember, but Silverado was a proud site of the PGA Tour between 1968 to 1980 and then held a senior event, the Transamerica, between 1990 and 2002.  So Silverado had a deep relationship with professional golf.  The resort changed direction because it didn’t need to spend the money to host a professional golf event.  Napa Valley has become an excellent destination for couples over 40, between the great weather and the vineyards. Still, the resort lost some of its lusters over the years and needed some sprucing up. One of the areas that have been improved was the golf courses.  There are two of them, the South and the North. A couple of years ago, Johnny Miller put together an investment group that purchased the courses, and Miller reworked the North Course. What Miller did was revamped all of the greens, put in new bunkering, and realigned the fairways, and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome.  Of course, because of the golf marketplace’s downturn, Miller didn’t go crazy by changing a lot of the holes, adding lakes and streams.  Still, Miller is happy at work, and he is hopeful of doing the same to the South Course.

So what will the pros find this week?  The greens are one of the things that Miller points out that makes it a better course.  “These greens are as tough as Augusta at high speeds,” Miller said to Golf.com. “I would probably have five three putts a round.”  The course was also increased from 6,900 to 7,166.  Now on the surface, this may be too short for the best pros in the world.  So I can see both the long-distance players having a field day while the shorter hitters were also enjoying shorter approaches to the greens.  One thing that was brought out in the 13 years it was played in the 70s,  the caliber of champions which included players like Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, and Ben Crenshaw among its winners.

Another critical aspect of the Miller redo, to improve playability and aesthetics, turf renovation, which got rid of Kikuyu grass and returned the course to its original mix of rye and Kentucky bluegrass condition.

The course has become a big hit with the players, sponsors, and fans and provided some great theater.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Silverado.

This is based on the most vital stats from Silverado Resort, North course based on data from last year’s Safeway Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020. Remember this is the first event of the 2021/22 season and there will be a lot of new Korn Ferry grads in the field.
This is the eighth year that the Fortinet Championship is being played at Silverado which has a history of holding PGA Tour events going back to the 60s. So the resort has had a deep relationship with professional golf. A couple of years ago Johnny Miller put together an investment group to buy the Napa resort and its two golf courses which were built in the 1960s. Both courses were designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and were good, but they were never updated with the advent of new equipment. So when Miller came in he wanted to rework the two courses and bring them up to date. He started first on the North Course by revamping all of the greens, put in new bunkering and realigned the fairways, and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome. The most important item in the change was changing the greens by adding some undulation and making them very fast. Miller also added 300 yards so it will play at a par 72 and at 7,166 yards.
Last year the course played to a 70,21 scoring average, three-quarters of a shot under par. It was the 43rd hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2020 Silverado played to a 71.24 scoring average, three-quarters of a shot under par. It was the 19th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Both last year and 2020 played about the same as in 2019 when it was the 23rd hardest course with a 71.10 scoring average. Because of the lack of wind, it played a lot easier than in 2018 when it was 71.76 (23rd hardest) and in 2017 when it was 70.83. For the pros, the hardest aspect of the course is hitting fairways, in 2021 51.64% of the fairways were hit as it was the 6th hardest fairways to hit in 2021. Now in 2020, the field hit 50.03% of the fairways as it was the 2nd hardest fairways to hit in 2020. Only Olympia Fields, the site of the BMW Championship were harder to hit. This is the norm for Silverado in 2019 53.65% of the fairways were hit as it ranked the 4th hardest course to hit in 2019.
Even with the tight fairways, the players hit 71.72% of the greens in 2021 making it the 43rd hardest course to hit in regulation. Now, this was the all-time record for Silverado, in past years it was harder to hit. In 2020 65.73% of the greens were hit making it the 16th hardest course to hit in regulation. Now in 2021 1,891 birdies were made as only two other courses in 2021 saw more birdies made, so hitting fairways and greens do lead to making a lot of birdies. As for the greens, they were the 3rd hardest greens to score on as the players’ made68 feet and 9 inches of putts per round.

So a combination of hitting it far and straight is important and that is why our first category is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In looking at last year’s champion Stewart Cink he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as he was 17th in driving distance and was T-51st in driving accuracy. The previous year, Cameron Champ was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green, as he led in driving distance and was T-21st in driving accuracy. In 2019 Kevin Tway won and he was T-40th in Driving Accuracy and T-14th in driving distance so he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Comparing this with Brendan Steele who won back to back in 2018 and 2017, Steele was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green in 2018 and 11th in 2017 so we can see the importance of this stat.
Our second most important category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. That is because last year the course ranked 43rd in greens hit. Now it was drastically different than in 2020 when the course ranked 16th in greens hit. So for those that missed the green they had to get it up and down to score well. Last year the players got it up and down from off the green 61.99% making it the 36th course in scrambling. The previous year it was 60.89% making it the 28th course in scrambling in 2020. As for bunkering the 18 greens have 36 bunkers around them so many players will have to get up and down from sand, last year the course ranked 35th in Sand Save percentage while in 2020 it ranked 25th. As for the champions, last year Stewart Cink was 8th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he was 2nd in Scrambling and T-68th in Sand Save Percentage. In 2020 the winner Cameron Champ was 19th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he was 1st in scrambling and 11th in Sand Save percentage. In 2019 Kevin Tway was 7th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he also was first in scrambling.
Our third category was Strokes Gained Putting. The greens are a combination of Poa annua and Bent so we all know it takes a special person to be able to putt well on Poa annua greens. Last year Stewart Cink ranked 16th in strokes Gained Putting. In 2020, Cameron Champ ranked 28th in Strokes Gained putting, while 2019 champion Kevin Tway was 18th, 2018 winner Brendan Steele was 29th and in 2017 he was 6th.
Our last category is Par Breakers because to win you have to make a lot of birdies, along with some eagles. Last year Silverado was 43rd in Par Breakers as Stewart Cink was T-6th as he made 23 birdies which he finished T-5th. In 2020 the course played a lot harder as it was 15th in Par Breakers as Cameron Champ was T-4th as he made 21 birdies which also finished T-4th. In 2019 Kevin Tway was T-10th making 19 birdies. Brendan Steele was 5th in Par Breakers in 2018 and T-1st in 2017 when he made 24 birdies.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made to show under par scoring.

Of the 156 players in the field, 99 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all 99 player stats.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $12,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $11,000
• Webb Simpson – $10,800
• Will Zalatoris – $10,500
• Kevin Na – $10,000
• Cameron Tringale – $9,700
• Marc Leishman – $9,500
• Si Woo Kim – $9,300
• Sebastian Munoz – $9,200
• Harold Varner III – $9,100
• Cameron Champ – $9,000

So this is a very strange week since only 9 top-50 ranked players are in the field.  So DraftKings has populated the top with most of the regular guys that we all know.  But this event is about the new blood that has just gotten their PGA Tour cards for 2022. Of the 50 that got their cards, 48 are playing this week.  There was so much room in the field that 14 Korn Ferry Tour players are at Napa this week.  So we have to dig down and find the 48 best players and make them part of our six players.  So I am going to not take many of the top players on the DraftKings list, instead of using a dozen or so of those recent Korn Ferry grads

I do believe that Joh Rahm will win this week, but taking Jon Rahm at $12,100 is a leap of faith.  It’s so much money that it doesn’t leave us much more for other names so I am not taking Rahm.  Yes I know how many top-tens he had in 2021, I would say he is a sure thing for a top-ten this week, but it makes the rest of your picks hard.  As for Hideki Matsuyama at $11,000, that is a sure-fire I will not take him.  The same with Webb Simpson at $10,800, he just hasn’t played great enough to warrant that price, especially when you see that in five Silverado starts he hasn’t broken the top-ten.  Now many will like Will Zalatoris at $10,500, he was last year’s rookie of the year, but there are two things I don’t like about him.  First has never played in this event and he had some back problems after the British Open.  Yes, he is a person to think about, but he hasn’t played in five weeks.  Who knows maybe that will help him, but I am passing on Will.  My first comfortable pick is Kevin Na at $10,000.  He is playing great and has two top-tens at Silverado including a 2nd in 2016 so I think he is the right pick. I will say no to Cameron Tringale at $9,700, he is too much money and in ten starts in this event still doesn’t have a top-ten.  Marc Leishman at $9,500 is an intriguing possibility, yes he didn’t play well at the end of last year.  But he was 3rd at Silverado in 2020, this is also the start of a new year and Leishman always seems to do well in the fall events.  I can’t find any redeeming value with Si Woo Kim at $9,300 other than he was T-2nd at Wyndham.  In three Silverado starts he hasn’t been very impressive so can’t see any reason to spend all that money on him.  Same story on Sebastian Munoz at $9,200, nothing gives me confidence that he will do well.  Harold Varner III at $9,100 is a thought, he finished great in his last two events of 2021, plus he has made five of five cuts at Silverado so maybe he is worth it.  Cameron Champ at $9,000 is also a thought, the last time he played at Silverado he won and his game got better at the end of 2021.  Still I think there are better values in other places.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Emiliano Grillo at $8,900 is a possibility, he won the event in 2016 and has been steady since.  But he didn’t finish strong at the end of the 2021 season so he is a no.  Many will think that Charley Hoffman is a good choice at $8,700 but he has never played well at Silverado.  I do like Maverick McNealy at $8,600, yes he hasn’t been great at Silverado, but I think he is going to have a great year and he can start it off on the right foot.  Now Chez Reavie at $8,500 is a savvy pick, he was T-3rd last year and always makes the cut at Silverado.  Now my first Korn Ferry grad (other than Will Zalatoris) is Stephan Jaeger at $8,200.  His last three starts at the end of the Korn Ferry Tour were T-2nd, T-4th and T-4th so think he is on a roll.  Mito Pereira at $8,000 is worth the price, yes he has never played in this event, but had a great summer so think he is a great pick.  Adam Hadwin at $7,800 is also worth the price, in his last start at Silverado was 2nd in 2020 and he finished ok on the PGA Tour.  Lucas Herbert at $7,700 is also a good pick, yes never played at Silverado but he had a great 2021 on both the European and Korns Ferry Tours.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Fortinet Championship

Yes, lot’s of bargains from the Korn Ferry grads, first up is Taylor Pendrith at $7,400 he was solid all last year on the Korn Ferry Tour.  Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $7,300 is also worth looking at he was T-2nd last week at the BMW PGA Championship in London and finished ok on the Korn Ferry Tour.  Doc Redman at $7,200 is worth it, was T-3rd at Silverado last year.  Another Korn Ferry grad is Adam Svensson at $7,200 I like him for one reason.  He won last month at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship on a course a lot like Silverado.  Greyson Sigg at $7,100 has not played at Silverado but won in Boise last month on a course similar to Silverado.  Chad Ramey at $7,000 is another to think about, he finished strong on the Korn Ferry Tour and should keep it up this week.  Hayden Buckley at $6,800 is another that has never played at Silverado but played great in his last five events on the Korn Ferry Tour including a T-2nd at the Utah Championship.  Also, like Joshua Creel at $6,700 he finished great on the Korn Ferry Tour with a win at the Utah Championship.  The list continues, David Lipsky at $6,800 is another first-timer at Silverado but comes in with a lot of momentum.  One last player is Kurt Kitayama at $6,300, yes he missed the cut last week in London but played great on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Fortinet Open:

The Key stat for the winner:

• In all seven years of being played at Silverado, hitting fairways and putting became the keys to playing well.  Silverado had the 2nd hardest fairways to hit in 2020 so hitting it straight is essential.  Also putting was important, on putting average it ranked T-28th out of 51 courses meaning that lot’s of putts were made.  So look for that trait in a possible winner this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Since the course is still new for a good share of the players, the experience will play a minimal role.  Traditionally tournaments on the PGA Tour that hold events for the first, second and third year, are won by journeymen and players with minimum experience winning.  The last seven winners Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Sangmoon Bae, Emiliano Grillo, and Brendan Steele fit that bill so expect the unexpected for this week.
• Johnny Miller says the greens are perfect and fast, so good putters should have a field day.
• Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at Silverado.  Last year it ranked 36th hardest, so to win you have to get up and down on those greens you miss.
• Lastly, the trend is for a journeyman pro to win, think that will be broken this week as a marquee name wins..
• The weather is going to be picture-perfect but the players are going to hate the winds which will average 15 mph each day with Sunday having the highest.  So look for higher scores.