BlogSanderson Farms Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Another Tour event that doesn’t have many marquee names, but it’s a great chance to again see the talent of those that recently got their PGA Tour card.  Of those 50 that earned Tour Cards last month, 45 of the 50 are playing this week and of the top-100 of the Korn Ferry points list, 50 are in the field.  So the chances are one in three that a Korn Ferry graduate will win this week.  Five Mississippians are in the field, including 2021 Korn Ferry Tour graduates Davis Riley, Hayden Buckley, and Chad Ramey

Sergio Garcia is the lone Ryder Cup participant that is playing in Mississippi. His win last year at the Country Club of Jackson was his first PGA Tour win since the 2017 Masters,  Also Zach Johnson, who was vice-captain on Steve Stricker’s squad, will play this week.

Look for a possible marquee winner?  You have five major winners in the field, Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley, Jimmy Walker, Gary Woodland, and Lucas Glover.  You also have two past FedExCup winners Brandt Snedeker and Bill Haas in the field.

2022 Schedule news

With the NFL adding a week to their season, that meant that the PGA Tour had to fix their schedule to make sure to help their TV partners not run up against football.  Over the last couple of years, the American Express which is on Golf Channel was up against the NFL championship games on Sunday.  The change meant that the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego would be up against those games.  But the PGA Tour and the folks that run the Farmers are now starting the event on Wednesday with a Saturday finish.  To help ease the cost CBS will air the Friday and Saturday shows with an 8 pm finish, thus able to add more to the cost of ads since it will dip into prime-time.

Here are some tournament and course information:

This event has been played in Mississippi since 1968.  In the beginning, it was an unofficial event and became an official event on the PGA Tour in 1986.  In its first year and until 1993, it played opposite to the Masters.  It was called the Deposit Guaranty and was played at Hattiesburg C.C. in Hattiesburg, Miss.  Not only did the date change to July and opposite the British Open, in 1994 the event moved to Madison, Miss, and the Annandale Country Club.  It again was moved in the schedule in 1999 when it was opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup, and the Presidents Cup.  In 2011 it switched back to July and the same week as the British Open with Sanderson Farms taking over in 2013.  Not only did the date change but the course was different for the first time in 20 years as it moved to The Country Club of Jackson.

The course wasn’t the whole reason for the change, Unlike Annandale, the country club offers more than 120,000 square feet of roofed infrastructure for hospitality which means more money will be donated to charity.  The course is also terrific and has gone through a lot of changes.  The biggest change is the fairways have been narrowed and a second cut added with the rough being allowed to grow in.

The course is a John Fought design that features “Golden Age” architectural features with pushed-up greens and closely mown run-off areas. If the course stays dry, the greens will be treacherous and could make things interesting.

The site had an interesting history because it was better to know in Mississippi, not for golf but was in 1966 it was the site of a famous raid that caused liquor to be legalization in the state.  So the Country Club of Jackson will this week be remembered as the site that changed the last dry state in the United States instead of for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sanderson Farms Championship:

This event is always up for grabs, not many players have any history at Country Club of Jackson so it’s always hard to pick this event.  But we learned a lot the last seven years it’s been played there, first that hitting greens is important. C.C. of Jackson ranked 32nd hardest last year in hitting greens while it was the 31st hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 71.09 scoring average.  In 2020 it was the 31st hardest in greens hit while it was T-25th in scoring average with a 70.90 average.

Of the 34 that finished in the top ten the last three years at Country Club of Jackson, 11 of them were in the top ten in greens hit with last year’s winner Sergio Garcia finishing T-1st. In 2020 the winner Sebastian Munoz was T-9th in greens hit while in 2019 Cameron Champ finished T-9th.  So the point is, you have to hit lots of greens.

On the face of it, we’re looking at a pretty long golf course, with the par-five fifth hole able to stretch to 612 yards before the difficult-looking sixth at close to 500 (482). Holes 14 and 15 would look to offer up birdie opportunities before a tough closing stretch, which the finishing hole is a 505 yard, par 4.  Oh, for the record there is no let-up on the par-4s, only one the 16th is under 400 yards so maybe a power hitter is a player to look for.  The par 5s played tough last year as they were the 12th hardest par 5s on the PGA Tour with a 4.74 scoring average.

This is also one of those courses that you have to hit it long and straight.  Last year it ranked 17th in driving distance but in 2016 it was 1st and in 2015 it was 10th.  But in looking at our seven winners at C.C. of Jackson the first four champions were mostly short hitters, but the last three winners hit it long so the course has changed to a bombers course.  Look for long hitters to do very well this week.

The average winning score from the last seven years has been a notch below 19 under. So going low will be a premium in Mississippi.

The weather is going to be mixed for the players as Thursday, Friday and Saturday are going to be great but Sunday is supposed to be rainy.  Temperatures will be in the low 70s so the ball won’t fly and could play harder. Winds will be tolerable not getting over 8 mph.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Sam Burns – $11,000
• Will Zalatoris – $10,800
• Sergio Garcia – $10,500
• Sungjae Im – $10,300
• Corey Conners – $10,100
• Mito Pereira – $9,900
• Keegan Bradley – $9,700
• Si Woo Kim – $9,500
• Cameron Tringale – $9,400
• Sebastian Munoz – $9,300
• Harold Varner III – $9,200
• Cameron Davis – $9,100
• Charley Hoffman – $9,000

So like in Napa two weeks ago, the person you least expect to win will be the winner. So we have to find the next Max Homa.  Could Sam Burns at $11,000 be the guy?  Maybe, he has played well at C.C.of Jackson, finishing T-3rd in 2019.  He is playing for the first time since the FedExCup and did great the last part of the season, including a runner-up finish at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  We also like Will Zalatoris at $10,800.  For those looking to see how a player does in Draftkings, check out our GOLFstats Edge DraftKings page for this week

You can see Sam Burns earns 64.18 points per event while Zalatoris averages 81.20.  These are the kind of points needed from your picks. Sergio Garcia at $10,500 had a great Ryder Cup and has been good over the last year.  It all started last week in winning the Sanderson Farms, but despite his good play, I wouldn’t expect much out of him this week.  Sungjae Im at $10,300 is worth thinking about, he was 2nd in 2020.  Corey Conners at $10,100 is another good pick, he was 2nd at the Sanderson Farms in 2019 and has played well in the last six months of the season.  Mito Pereira at $9,900 is a rookie in this event, yes he is playing well but still, it’s best to take a pass on him this week.  Keegan Bradley at $9,700 played at the Sanderson last year and was T-4th, so he is someone that could do well.  Si Woo Kim at $9,500 is a not, just hasn’t played well in this event and other than his runner-up finish at the Wyndham, struggled so take a pass on him.  Cameron Tringale at $9,400 is a person to think about, yes his play at the Sanderson isn’t great, but it isn’t bad.  He had a number of good events over the summer and was T-22nd at the Fortinet.  Kind of saying to us that he is a guy you least expect to do well.  Sebastian Munoz at $9,300 is a person to think about since he won in 2020, I say no just not playing well enough.  Harold Varner III at $9,200, Cameron Davis at $9,100, and Charley Hoffman at $9,000 are a no for me.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Seamus Power at $8,800 is a person to think about, he played great over the summer.  Carlos Ortiz at $8,600 os worth a look, he was T-4th at the Sanderson in 2020.  Matthew Wolff at $8,500 is worth a look, yes he has never played in this event, but his length could be an advantage for this week.  Scott Stallings at $7,700 is worth a look, he was T-6th last year at the Sanderson.  Patrick Rodgers at $7,600 is worth a look, he played well all summer.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Southern Farms

Look for those Korn Ferry Tour guys that played well at the end of the year, there are a lot of them in this price range.  David Lipsky at $7,200 is one to watch.  Same with Stephan Jaeger at $7,100 he played great at the end of the 2021 season and also like Chad Ramey at $7,000.  Rory Sabbatini at $6,900 is also a great pick and could surprise us as he did in the Olympics.