BlogThe CJ Cup Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For the second year in a row, the PGA Tour is sticking around Las Vegas for the C.J. Cup.  When this event was conceived in 2018, it was a vehicle to get the top players in golf to play in Korea for a lot of money.  After three successful years playing the Club at Nine Bridges, the pandemic made it impossible to play again in Korea.  So for one year, the event was moved to Las Vegas and played at the Shadow Creek Golf Course last year.  Unfortunately, problems with COVID-19 made it impossible to play it in Korea this year, so the PGA Tour found another great course in Las Vegas, The Summit Club, which would be another placeholder with the event returning to South Korea next year.

Over the course of the last year, the PGA Tour has been able to make a tough decision very profitable for them.  For the last 20 years, a couple dozen very exclusive clubs have been built with championship courses and the developers want a way to showcase them.  Most of these courses are linked to high-level real estate ventures, so the PGA Tour has found that they can take tournaments that need a temporary home and match them with a great course for a sizable site fee.  So in the last year, we have seen courses like Shadow Creek hold the C.J. Cup, Sherwood C.C. outside of Los Angeles hold the Zozo Championship.  In February, it was determined that Mexico couldn’t host the WGC-Mexico Championship, so the event was moved to The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Florida, a Jack Nicklaus course that had gotten a lot of attention since it first opened.  When Canada couldn’t host the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA Tour found another niche club in South Carolina that wanted to show off their championship course, thus we had the one-year Palmetto Championship at Congaree.  During the FedExCup playoffs, the BMW Championship was played at Caves Valley, another high-end course selling real estate outside of Baltimore that was looking for some exposure.  In the case of all five events, it was a win-win for both the courses that got national recognition, while the PGA Tour was able to get a healthy site fee from the course.

When the PGA Tour concluded over the summer that it wouldn’t bring back the C.J. Cup to Korea due to COVID, they found another very high-end course in Las Vegas to hold the event, the Summit Club.  Now next week for the Zozo Championship they will be able to return and play the event in Japan.  Be interested to see how many top players make the trek for a week to Japan.

The Summit Club

Last year the CJ Cup was played at Shadow Creek, which allows the public to pay a big fee (between $600 and $750).  This year the event is moving to a very private course, The Summit Club.  It’s the latest luxury residential community that built a brilliant course.  Located about 18 miles west of the Las Vegas Strip at the base of the Red Rocks Mountain, they hired Tom Fazio, who had built both Shadow Creek and Wynn Golf Club, which got a lot of recognition. To help add value to homes, Fazio utilized the earthmoving so that the holes play in a valley, thus the home pods look down on the golf holes along with great views of the Stripe and Mountains.  Each lot demands a minimum of $3.5 million, with some lot’s going for between $10 and 12 million.  Some of the homes are selling for $20 million as the development has become very successful.  Along with the high price of the property, joining Summit is not cheap, $200,000 to get in with annual dues at $39,000.  There are about 100 members so the course gets very little play.

Fazio built a course with vast fairways, which give players many different options into the treacherous greens.  At 6,580 square feet, the greens are guarded by 26 of the courses 62 bunkers.  Even though the course was built in the desert, it doesn’t feel like a desert course.  The course is beautiful as the holes that run east have dramatic views of Las Vegas and the skyline of the Vegas Strip.  In the other direction, holes that run west have phenomenal views of the towering Red Rock Mountain and the desert countryside.  Just like Shadow Creek, which held the C.J. Cup last year, The Summit reeks of money.  A perfect example is the first thing that you will be asked on getting to the course is what brand of balls you play.  The reason for that question, when you get to the practice faculties, your brand of balls is what you will hit on the range.

The course will play to a par of 72 at 7,431 yards.  It has a course rating of 75.7 and a slope of 143, but they will find the course very hospitable for the best on the PGA Tour.  The course has four water hazards that come into play on 7 holes.  The 62 sand traps will have a distinct look to them, they look the same as the bunkers at Augusta National. That is because they use the same sand as is found at Augusta National.  The greens are bent while the fairways are Bermuda.  To get the course looking great for this week the course was overseeded five weeks ago with new ryegrass, so it’s been challenging getting the course in shape for the PGA Tour this week.

Keys to winning at The Summit:

For the average player, Summit is a dominant course. But for the PGA Tour, if there is a lack of wind (suppose to be 9 mph Thursday and Friday, 5 mph over the weekend), you will see a lot of low scores.  Since the fairways are generous, look for this course to play a lot like Kapalua in which long hitters do very well on.  After the drives, hitting greens and putting is essential, but the aesthetics of the course will look very challenging on T.V., but won’t create many problems for the players this week.  But the most important aspect will be off the tee, bombers will fall in love with this course.  One thing that shocks me is that Bryson DeChambeau, who would dominate this course, is not playing.  Also not playing is Jon Rahm, who was in Spain for the Spanish Open last week.  Two players who didn’t qualify and unfortunately won’t be playing are Will Zalatoris and Matthew Wolff.  Another factor that will be important, just like last year when Jason Kokrak was the surprising victor, look for someone like that, a person you least expect to win.  The field is 78, with 45 players in the Shriners Children’s Open are staying in Las Vegas for another week.  Now, of the 78 players in the field, 60 have won on the PGA Tour.  Eight of the 18 that never won are from the Korean Tour and have very little chance of winning.  But of the 78 in the field, watch Marc Leishman, who was T-3rd at the Shriners, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, and Talor Gooch, who finished T-11th at the Shriners, or Sam Burns and Louis Oosthuizen, who finished T-14th last week.  Also, don’t think that a player who missed the cut at the Shriners has no chance.  Last year Jason Kokrak missed the cut at the Shriners but won the following week at Shadow Creek.  Of course, most of the favorites will come from the marquee names, but one of the facts of life when a course is first played on it, the least liking person will win.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,300
• Justin Thomas – $11,300
• Collin Morikawa – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,600
• Jordan Spieth – $10,300
• Rory McIlroy – $10,100
• Viktor Hovland – $9,900
• Sam Burns – $9,800
• Brooks Koepka – $9,700
• Tony Finau – $9,600
• Sungjae Im – $9,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,400
• Louis Oosthuizen – $9,300
• Cameron Smith – $9,200
• Abraham Ancer – $9,100
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,000

This is a 72 hole event with just 78 players. The good news is there is no cut to miss, the bad news is there are more players over the $9,000 mark and it will be hard finding players under that figure.  No surprise seeing Dustin Johnson at $11,300 after his brilliant Ryder Cup.  For most of the 2021 season Johnson played indifferently, but we saw him getting better over the summer and during the FedEx Cup playoffs.  I hate picking a favorite like Johnson, the price is very high but in the case of him this week, he is worth the money because we think he will finish in the Top-three.  The same with Justin Thomas at $11,300, his game has gotten more consistent and now that he has “Bones” on the bag this week, it’s going to help him play well.  As for Collin Morikawa at $10,800 I say we take a pass on him, other than the Olympics he hasn’t played well since his British Open victory.  Xander Schauffele at $10,600 is a toss-up, he did win the Olympics and finished 3rd at the Tour Championship, but since the U.S. Open, there are no top-nine finishes.  Feel the same about Jordan Spieth at $10,300, other than his runner-up at the British Open his summer was a mess, but still, he can produce a lot of birdies, but the price is too dear.  Rory McIlroy at $10,100 is a no for me, think he is good for 54 of the 72 holes.  But for at least one round a tournament he has struggled, think that will continue this week.  Viktor Hovland at $9,900 is a hard choice, he won the BMW International in Germany last June and was T-4th at the Tour Championship but hasn’t played that great and wasn’t very good at the Ryder Cup so I say no on him.  Sam Burns at $9,800 is a yes, he has played great since the spring including wins at the Valspar and Sanderson Farms.  Brooks Koepka at $9,700 is a no, too volatile right now.  The same with Tony Finau at $9,600, we just don’t know which Tony Finau will play this week.  Sungjae Im at $9,500 is a toss-up, he played great last week and will probably play great this week, but worried that he may get fatigued that could produce a poor round.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,400 I find has very little upside, he just hasn’t played very well.  Louis Oosthuizen at $9,300 is a yes because he has been very consistent the whole year and is able to gain a lot of points.  Check out our Edge feature on DraftKings you can see that Oosthuizen is very high up in average DraftKings points with 68.79.  Even better is Cameron Smith at $9,200, for the last 12 months Smith has averaged making 73.88 points per event.  Abraham Ancer at $9,100 is a good bet, even though he missed the cut at the Shriners.  Last but not least is Scottie Scheffler at $9,000.  My initial reaction to him is very negative, but trust me when I say he is the type of person that has a great shot at winning this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I really don’t like Harris English, Tommy Fleetwood, and Webb Simpson, but feel that Marc Leishman at $8,600 is a great pick.  He was T-3rd last week at the Shriners and T-4th at Fortinet, think he will do great this week.  Jason Kokrak at $8,500 is a person to watch, just like last year he missed the cut at the Shriners.  Good that mean good things for him this week?  Shane Lowry at $8,300 is a good pick due to him playing well, but he struggles to make a lot of DraftKing points so he is a toss-up.  Max Homa at $7,700 is also a person to think about, he won his last start at Fortinet.  Now the best pick and greatest bargain is Sergio Garcia at $7,500, he is playing well now and does earn a lot of DraftKings points

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the CJ Cup

Can’t go wrong with Joaquin Niemann at $7,400, going back to our DraftKings section Niamey earns 7.09 points per event so he is a real bargain.  I also like Maverick McNealy at $7,300 and Talor Gooch at $7,200.  Looking for some really good deals, you can’t get better than Brian Harman at $6,600.  He averages 68,75 Draftkings points per event and will earn you a lot of points.  One last person to pick from is Jhonattan Vegas at $6,300.  He hits it very long and plays well in the desert

*So who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Dustin Johnson – $11,300
• Louis Oosthuizen – $9,300
• Marc Leishman – $8,600
• Sergio Garcia – $7,500
• Brian Harman – $6,600
• Jhonattan Vegas – $6,300

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the CJ Cup:

The key stat for the winner:

• Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  So for each player, it will be a new adventure learning the course.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The course will be in perfect condition, and the greens will be some of the finest they play.  With all of the undulation on them, I think an excellent putter will do well.
• In 2018 we saw the epic playoff between two bombers, Justin Thomas and Marc Leishman.  In 2019 we saw a great performance of ball striking and putting as Brooks Koepka lapped the field.  In 2020 we saw Justin Thomas win again and he played great and last year Jason Kokrak got his first PGA Tour win at Shadow Creek and we realized he was a great choice because he had played the course many times as an MGM ambassador.  I like a person that makes a lot of birdies, this is the trend on those playing a new course.  Remember this, no matter what people say about a course, the advantage is always on the top players in the world, they play a different game than all of us and shouldn’t have problems scoring on this course.
• One last thing, look for players that have done well of late.