BlogBermuda Champ. Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Hard to believe that the fall portion of the PGA Tour is halfway finished, and already a big trend is happening.  For the second year in a row, the first five winners have won before on the PGA Tour, showing us that more players see the importance of playing in the fall.  This week is the Bermuda Champions. This event was supposed to be a second-tier event opposite the WGC-HSBC Champions for the second year in a row, but due to COVID, the China event was canceled. So the Bermuda Championship is upgraded to full event status.

The field for this week’s event is not very rich as the marquee names are Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, and Graeme McDowell.  Of the 127 players in the field, 50 have won on the PGA Tour, and 4 of them (Graeme McDowell, Danny Willett, Jason Dufner, and Patrick Reed have won a major).  So the chances are good that we will have a rookie winner this week.

Talking about last week, I made my six DraftKings picks and it’s time to see how I did.

The six players I picked were mixed by the good news is I won.  In the $300K flop shot, I was one of 23,529 entries my guys ranked 3,446.  The game cost $10 and I won $25 so a profit of $15.

The winner scored 539 points while his six guys earned 429.  The winner not only had the champion Matsuyama, but he also had Brendon Steele who finished T-2nd, Matt Wallace who finished T-4th and Tommy Fleetwood and Brandon Grace who finished T-7th.  His worst pick Tom Hoge finished T-17th.

On my picks it helped a lot that I picked the winner Matsuyama and Matt Wallace finished T-4th.  After that was disappointing as Xander Schauffele finished T-28th and Ryan Palmer finished T-44th.  One of my Japanese picks Jinichiro Kozuma finished T-35th and Ryosuke Kinoshita was a disappointing T-66th

So here are the results of my six guys:

• Xander Schauffele – $11,000 who finished T-28th with 60.5 points
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,300 who won with 124 points
• Ryan Palmer – $8,300 who finished T-44th with 48.5 points
• Matt Wallace – $8,000 who finished T-4th with 86.5 points
• Ryosuke Kinoshita – $6,200 who finished T-66th with 50.5 points
• Jinichiro Kozuma – $6,100 who finished T-35th with 59 points

Things you need to know about the Port Royal GC

Located on the island of Bermuda, which is in the Atlantic Ocean 650 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The course is on the southwest part of the island with most of the holes with views of the Atlantic.  It was originally supposed to be built in 1965 and they had some problems with one farmer who changed his mind about selling the property.  In 1967 all the land was bought and Robert Trent Jones did the routing and the course opened in 1970.

Course information:

• Port Royal GC
• Southampton, Bermuda
• 6,828 yards     Par 36-35–72

The course is government-run and one of the most popular public courses in the world and it was the host of the Bermuda Open.  The course got a $16 million renovation in 2009 so that it could host the PGA Grand Slam of Golf.  With the support of the Bermuda Government, Port Royal is now one of the world’s premier public golf courses boasting TifEagle greens, a state-of-the-art irrigation system, and sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole.

Jones built the course to utilize the ocean views along with the par 3 16th hole that dangles over the Atlantic Ocean.  At 6,828 yards, it’s the shortest course on the PGA Tour for 2022 (The Travelers TPC River Highlands at 6,841 is 13 yards longer), but one that won’t appeal to long hitters.  The reason, most of the holes have sharp doglegs, which require finesse off the tee.  The course only has three holes that don’t dogleg, so most players have to throttle back off the tee.  So off the bat, those that are short off the tee have an advantage.  In looking at the previous champions, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd are the shortest players on the PGA Tour.  The most significant protection Port Royal has is mother nature.  Sitting on a bluff over the Atlantic, it has severe wind coming off of the ocean.  On a perfect day, winds will be around 10 mph.  But on average, expect average winds between 17 and 20 mph, which gusts up to 30 miles per hour.  Unfortunately, the weather for this week will not be good. Thursday and Friday will be mostly cloudy, with winds between 15 and 25 mph.  Over the weekend, thunderstorms are expected with winds in the 20 mph territory, so in looking for who will do well, it’s a player that does well in windy conditions.  This is one of the reasons you don’t see more marquee names; most players tend to avoid courses with a history of high winds.  Many a player have found themselves all messed up after playing a few rounds in the wind.  So look for those who excel in windy conditions, players that grew up in windy places like Texas, Florida, Australia, or Great Britain and Ireland. Those players who fit the bill are Patrick Reed, Danny Willett, Scott Stallings, Brian Gay, Ryan Armour, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Matt Fitzpatrick, Graeme McDowell, and Nick Taylor.  I also have to look at players with a lot of experience, this is not a course that will allow a young player to win, so I see the champion who has won before.  Most importantly, look for those that have played a lot in windy conditions.  Lastly, you want a player who can play well on par 4s, past winners Brendon Todd was 12 under on the par 4s, last year’s winner Brian Gay was 15 under.

Still, the course will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, so those that have offense will do good.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Matt Fitzpatrick – $11,000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $10,700
• Mito Pereira – $10,500
• Patrick Reed – $10,400
• Seamus Power – $10,200
• Hayden Buckley – $9,900
• Matthias Schwab – $9,700
• Chad Ramey – $9,500
• Adam Hadwin – $9,400
• Danny Willett – $9,300
• Taylor Pendrith – $9,100
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,000

This is another really hard event to peg.  Lot’s of players at the top that you don’t want to pay over $9,000 for.  Making it harder there is a 36 hole cut so we have to try and pick-six that will be around all four days.  I really feel that is the most important thing, is to make sure all you players stick around for the weekend.  Lot’s of former Korn Ferry Tour players in the field, it’s time to pick those that will do well.

Hard to believe that DraftKings picked Matt Fitzpatrick at $11,000 as the top player.  The reason for that, he won in Spain two weeks ago, but he has struggled on tour.  Now the good news, he can play in wind but I still am not paying $11 grand for him.  The same thing with Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $10,700, I feel that Christiaan is the favorite for this week despite never playing in this event.  But with his experience of playing well in the wind, I am going to advise you all to just shut your eyes and pick him.  He hasn’t played since finishing 5th at the BMW PGA Championship so he will be well-rested.  I have the same problem with Mito Pereira at $10,500, he is just too much for a guy that has never played in this event and has very little experience of playing in the wind.  Now Patrick Reed at $10,400 is who I would have pegged to be the top money.  Reed has never played in this event, but is a great wind player.  But I worry that his last good finish was a 5th at the Memorial and in the ten events since his best finish was T-17th.  Still, he should be good this week.  Seamus Power at $10,200 is a head-scratcher.  He has played in Bermuda twice, best finish T-31st.  He also has played well, winning the Barbasol in July and having four top-tens on the PGA Tour in 2021.  He was born and raised in Waterford, Ireland which has a lot of wind so he is someone to think about.  Hayden Buckley is very high at $9,900 and goes at this price because he was T-4th at Sanderson and T-8th at the Shriner.  He has never played in Bermuda, his wind experience is limited but he won a Korn Ferry event last year in Florida.  Matthias Schwab at $9,700 is very high for a player who never has played in this event.  His game has been good of late finishing T-4th at Boise Open, T-7th at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and T-15th two weeks ago at Valderrama.  Another puzzling player is Chad Ramey at $9,500, he has never played in this event and had some good weeks since the summer.  He won the Maine Open and was T-4th at the Pinnacle Bank Championship.  For me, I can’t recommend him.  Adam Hadwin at $9,400 is a very savvy pick.  He is playing this event for the first time but is well versed in playing under windy conditions and has played well of late, including a T-6th at the Shriners Children’s.  Danny Willett at $9,300 is a good pick, he won last month at St. Andrews and was T-21st  at the Shriners.  I like the fact that he was won three times in the last four years and think that his first go-around Port Royal will be a good experience.  I honestly have no idea how Draftkings valued Taylor Pendrith at $9,100.  He has never played in his event and he has played just ok making the cut in his first three starts.  Yes, he may have had a decent Korn Ferry season, but in my mind doesn’t transfer to this week.  Patrick Rodgers at $9,000 is a question mark, just because he has played twice in this event missing the cut and finishing T-59th.  He began the year T-6th at the Fortinet but missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money and will make the cut?:

Thomas Detry at $8,900 is either going to miss the cut or finish in the top-five.  In his last 12 starts on the European Tour, he has made just five cuts but they were a pair of runner-ups at the Porsche European Open and Scottish Open.  He is T-4th at the Dutch Open, so the big question is he worth the gamble when the odds are in favor of him not making the cut.  Scott Stallings at $8,600 is a good choice just because he has played well in this event, finishing T-18th in 2020 and T-26th last year.  On tour, he was T-6th at the Fortinet but missed the cut at the Sanderson and Shriners.  Still think he will make the cut and do well.  The same with Denny McCarthy at $8,500, he has played well in Bermuda finishing T-15th in 2020 and T-4th last year. For 2022 has struggled making just one cut, T-17th at Sanderson.  Joseph Bramlett at $8,200 is one to think of, he has played twice in Bermuda, T-31st in 2020, and T-45th last year he finished strong on the Korn Ferry with a win and I think he will make the cut. Ryan Armour at $8,100 is a good buy, he was T-8th in Bermuda in both 2020 and last year.  Nick Watney at $7,800 is worth a look, he has made seven cuts in his last 8 starts including a runner-up at Sanderson Farms.  He played once in Bermuda and missed the cut last year.  Lucas Herbert at $7,700 is a player who has missed his first two cuts as a PGA Tour member, but he won in the wind at the Irish Open and T-4th in a winding Scottish Open.  The same with Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $7,500 who is a Korn Ferry graduate, yes he missed both his cuts in 2022 events, but was T-2nd at the BMW PGA Championship and was T-11th in Bermuda last year.  Hank Lebioda at $7,500 could and I say could because he was T-3rd in Bermuda in 2020 and T-16th last year.  But be aware that he has not made it to the weekend in his last five starts, but before that was T-8th at the John Deere, T-4th at the Rocket Mortgage, and T-5th at the Travelers.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

Lot’s of players that you have to go through very carefully to find a combination of making lots of cuts and potential for doing well this week in very windy conditions.  I see Graeme McDowell at $7,200 as a choice, he hasn’t played in Bermuda but won the Corales on a windy course plus a win at the Saudi International.  He seems to do really well on courses with windy conditions.  Anirban Lahiri at $7,100 is worth the gamble, he was T-11th last year in Bermuda.  Also, it’s worth a gamble on Brian Gay at $7,100.  He won in Bermuda last year, was T-3rd in 2020.  Think he is in his element in Bermuda because his play on the PGA Tour has been terrible since the win not playing on the weekend in three of his last 20 starts.  Beau Hossler at $7,000 is also a good blend of playing well in Bermuda, T-24th in 2020, and T-26th last year.  On the PGA Tour was T-16th at the Fortinet, his last start.  Cameron Percy at $6,900 is also a good mixture of finishing T-48th in Bermuda in 2020, was T-26th last year plus making the cut in his last eight starts.

*So who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $10,700
• Adam Hadwin – $9,400
• Ryan Armour – $8,100
• Lucas Herbert – $7,700
• Brian Gay – $7,100
• Cameron Percy – $6,900

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Bermuda Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what vital stats is essential at Port Royal GC?  This is the shortest course on the PGA Tour and short hitters that keep it safe off the tee seem to do better than bombers  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top-stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes, the field does have four major champions playing (Graeme McDowell, Danny Willett, Jason Dufner, and Patrick Reed) but after that is your Matt Fitzpatrick and Adam Hadwin as your key guys  But none of them will win because the winner has been the person you least expect.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.