El Camaleon Key Fantasy Stats

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba

November 4th – 7th, 2021

El Camaleon

Playa Del Carmen, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,017

Purse: $7.2 million

with $1,296,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Viktor Hovland

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
This is the 15th year that the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 70.07 average which was a shot under par as it ranked the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour. It played to about the same average last year, but because of calm, windless conditions It played just about a shot tougher in 2019 when it played to a 69.25 average. In 2018 it played to a 70.32 average while in 2016 it was played at 70.02, both years in windy conditions. In looking at the long range forecast, they are expecting perfect weather every day with low winds around 10 mph, so scoring should be easier this year.

So the course did play easier, in driving accuracy it ranked 14th hardest while in 2020. In driving distance it ranked T-6th last year and 5th in 2020 compared to 15th in 2019 and 4th in 2018, meaning that players don’t hit it very long on this course, last year it averaged 284.9, probably due to soft, perfect fairways. Maybe that is the reason that short hitters tend to do very well on this course as Charley Hoffman in 2015 was the only long hitter. Last year Viktor Hovland won and he ranked 53rd in driving average making him along with Hoffman as the longest winners at Maya. In 2020 Brendon Todd won and he was 187th in driving distance meaning he is one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 Matt Kuchar won and he ranked 135th on tour in driving distance. The point is that this event doesn’t see bombers doing well, you need a lot of other things to win, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit seven and a half out of 14 fairways (55.75%), a very low percentage, when you consider that the easiest course the Plantation Course at Kapalua they hit 12 of 15 fairways (79.01%). They also hit lots of greens at El Camaleon, 12 of 18 (66.94% ranked 30th). Of the greens that they missed, they got it up and down just under 6 out of every 10 tries (59.32%) and averaged 28.66 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 3.93 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, El Camaleon is a layup.

In looking at the 28 players that have finished 5th or better in the last five Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 27 players, only seven players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and only four players finished in the top-ten in driving distance. In 2018 only one player in the top-ten finished in the top-ten in fairways hit while in 2019 two finished in the top-ten. Now of those same 28 players, 13 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading that stat. Of the 28 players, 15 of players finished in the top ten in putts per round (last year 2 of the top-five were in the top ten). Also looking at the 28 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 4 under, the par 4s in 6 under, and the par 5s in 8 under. The 28 players average making 23 birdies so you can see it’s very important to play the par 5s well and make lots of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Viktor Hovland, he was 8th in driving distance and T-13th in fairways hit, so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was 1st in greens hit, 17st in scrambling, and T-45th in putts per round. Going a step further, Hovland had one 3-putt and was T-34th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 2 under, T-38th best of the week. On the par 4s he was 9 under which was tied for the best of the week. But on the par 5s, he played them in 9 under, which was T-4th best. Hovland made 22 birdies tying for seventh-most in the field.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to bring a premium on putting and hitting greens. To lead off we will use strokes gained – putting, with the understanding that of the six events played, they have numbers to do this stat. Last year El Camaleon didn’t have that stat but was T-10th in putting average. Our next important stat is greens hit, again that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon, last year on tour it was 30th (remember Hovland led that stat). Our third important stat is par breakers, again making lots of eagles and birdies is important, last year it ranked 32nd best. Last we are going to look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard, on tour El Camaleon ranked T-18th last year.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year and be sure not to forget about Korn Ferry.Com tour players. Remember last week was mostly Korn Ferry players, the field this week is loaded with 20 top-50 in the world rankings.

*Strokes Gained – Putting: A look at who gains the most strokes putting

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

116 of the 128 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.