BlogMayakoba Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The tour moves from Bermuda to Cancun, Mexico.  Both places have one thing in common: both play by the ocean and wind, making it hard.  We saw what wind could do in Bermuda. Thursday was brutal, especially in the morning with gusts up to 35 mph.  Things got better before Sunday when again the conditions made for a tough day. Still, it was a week of players doing well that we hadn’t heard of. One of those players was Lucas Herbert.  He won, those that follow the PGA Tour don’t know much about him. But in Europe, he won in Dubai last year and just a couple of months ago in Ireland.  Others that finished in the top ten that we haven’t heard much of was Taylor Pendrith,  the third-round leader but he shot 76 in the final round to drop down to T-5th.  We have to keep tabs on other players in the future: Patrick Rodgers, Davis Riley, Curtis Thompson, and Vincent Whaley, who all finished in the top ten.  We knew there would be a lot of unknown players that would play well, and they did. That is what you get in lower-tier events like Bermuda Championship.

For you to keep up with the players better check out our new GOLFstats Edge player guide on the home page, you will find a lot of information on all the players in the field.

For some this week will be very important

After this week there are just two fall events, Houston and RSM Classic.  For a dozen in this week’s field, their goal is to finish up the year in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings.  For those it’s a ticket to unlimited golf, you get to play in not only the best events on the PGA Tour but also get invites to play in the majors. This is a perk worth more for the sanity of knowing where to play, but also the golden ticket to play in the majors.

Here is a list of those that are on the bubble:

• #46 Justin Rose – Playing in Mayakoba
• #47 SiWoo Kim – not in the field this week
• #48 Stewart Cink – not in the field this week
• #49 Mackenzie Hughes – Not in the field this week
• #50 Brian Harman – Playing in Mayakoba
• #51 Ian Poulter – Playing in Mayakoba
• #52 Garrick Higgo – Playing in Mayakoba
• #53 Cameron Tringale – Playing in Mayakoba
• #54 Talor Gooch – Playing in Mayakoba
• #55 Erik Van Rooyen – Not in the field this week
• #56 Russell Henley – Playing in Mayakoba
• #57 Branden Grace – Not in the field this week
• #58 Min Woo Lee – Playing in Portugal
• #59 K.H. Lee – Not in the field this week
• #60 Kevin Streelman – Playing in Mayakoba

Talking about last week, I made my six DraftKings picks and it’s time to see how I did.

In the $100K flop shot, I was one of 21,8239 entries my guys ranked 5,374.  The game cost $15 and I was out of the money, my 414.5 points earned was 5.5 points away from being in the money.

The six players I picked were mixed, the good news for the second week in a row I picked a winning player in Lucas Herbert who earned 118 points.  Now Herbert was the high point winner, Danny Lee had 124 points and Patrick Reed tied Herbert with 118 points.

The winner scored 596.5 points while my six guys earned 414.5.  The winner not only had the winner Herbert, but he also had Patrick Reed who finished T-2nd, Davis Riley, and Vincent Whaley who finished T-7th.  His worst pick Seamus Power and Alex Smalley finished T-12th, so he did a great job in winning

On my picks, it helped a lot that I picked the winner Herbert and Brian Gay who finished T-12th but won 95.5 points.  After that it was a disappointment, my top guy who I thought would contend Christiaan Bezuidenhout was T-57th and only won 55 points.  I was also disappointed with Adam Hadwin, who opened with a 74 and closed with a 73, and finished T-46th winning 60 points.  Ryan Armour, who I was looking to make the cut did finish T-67th and contributed 56 points to the cause.  The big disappointment was Cameron Percy.  He had an early first-round tee time and had to play when the wind was at its peak, he did shoot 68 but it wasn’t good enough he missed the cut by two shots and that cost me from winning some money

So here are the results of my six guys from last week:

Lucas Herbert – $7,700 he won with 118 points

Brian Gay – $7,100 who finished T-12th with 96.5 points

Adam Hadwin – $9,400 who finished T-46th with 60 points

Christiaan Bezuidenhout – $10,700 who finished T-57th with 55 points

Ryan Armour – $8,100 who finished T-67th with 56 points

Cameron Percy – $6,900 who missed the cut and only earned 30 points

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course meanders through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves, and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever-changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  So what will the field be challenged by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards come into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees, and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

The course is located in an area that gets lots of wind, but the difference between El Camaleon and Port Royal, the course that held the Bermuda Championship is protection from the elements.  Port Royal has no protection from trees or even buildings.  The course slopes back from the ocean so just about every hole you get the full force of the wind. So at Port Royal, every hole is vulnerable to winds. At El Camaleon only eight or nine holes have that problem.  That is because the course ventures into the Jungle and has a lot of big mangroves which block the wind.

In looking at long-range forecasts the weather is supposed to be ok with partly cloudy skies every day and winds coming out of the east at 8 to 12 mph.  Temperatures will be good averaging around 85 each day.  There is a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms on all four days, other than that it should be ok.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at El Camaleon:

This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
This is the 15th year that the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 70.07 average which was a shot under par as it ranked the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour. It played to about the same average last year, but because of calm, windless conditions. It played just about a shot tougher in 2019 when it played to a 69.25 average. In 2018 it played to a 70.32 average while in 2016 it was played at 70.02, both years in windy conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast, they are expecting perfect weather every day with low winds around 10 mph, so scoring should be easier this year.

So the course did play easier, in driving accuracy it ranked 14th hardest while in 2020. In driving distance it ranked T-6th last year and 5th in 2020 compared to 15th in 2019 and 4th in 2018, meaning that players don’t hit it very long on this course, last year it averaged 284.9, probably due to soft, perfect fairways. Maybe that is the reason that short hitters tend to do very well on this course as Charley Hoffman in 2015 was the only long hitter. Last year Viktor Hovland won and he ranked 53rd in driving average making him along with Hoffman as the longest winners at Maya. In 2020 Brendon Todd won and he was 187th in driving distance meaning he is one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 Matt Kuchar won and he ranked 135th on tour in driving distance. The point is that this event doesn’t see bombers doing well, you need a lot of other things to win, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit seven and a half out of 14 fairways (55.75%), a very low percentage, when you consider that the easiest course the Plantation Course at Kapalua they hit 12 of 15 fairways (79.01%). They also hit lots of greens at El Camaleon, 12 of 18 (66.94% ranked 30th). Of the greens that they missed, they got it up and down just under 6 out of every 10 tries (59.32%) and averaged 28.66 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 3.93 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, El Camaleon is a layup.

In looking at the 28 players that have finished 5th or better in the last five Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 27 players, only seven players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and only four players finished in the top-ten in driving distance. In 2018 only one player in the top-ten finished in the top-ten in fairways hit while in 2019 two finished in the top-ten. Now of those same 28 players, 13 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading that stat. Of the 28 players, 15 of players finished in the top ten in putts per round (last year 2 of the top-five were in the top ten). Also looking at the 28 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 4 under, the par 4s in 6 under, and the par 5s in 8 under. The 28 players average making 23 birdies so you can see it’s very important to play the par 5s well and make lots of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Viktor Hovland, he was 8th in driving distance and T-13th in fairways hit, so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was 1st in greens hit, 17st in scrambling, and T-45th in putts per round. Going a step further, Hovland had one 3-putt and was T-34th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 2 under, T-38th best of the week. On the par 4s he was 9 under which was tied for the best of the week. But on the par 5s, he played them in 9 under, which was T-4th best. Hovland made 22 birdies tying for seventh-most in the field.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to bring a premium on putting and hitting greens. To lead off we will use strokes gained – putting, with the understanding that of the six events played, they have numbers to do this stat. Last year El Camaleon didn’t have that stat but was T-10th in putting average. Our next important stat is greens hit, again that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon, last year on tour it was 30th (remember Hovland led that stat). Our third important stat is par breakers, again making lots of eagles and birdies is important, last year it ranked 32nd best. Last we are going to look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard, on tour El Camaleon ranked T-18th last year.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year and be sure not to forget about Korn Ferry.Com tour players. Remember last week was mostly Korn Ferry players, the field this week is loaded with 20 top-50 in the world rankings.

*Strokes Gained – Putting: A look at who gains the most strokes putting

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

116 of the 128 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to see all 116 players stats

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,200
• Viktor Hovland – $10,900
• Abraham Ancer – $10,700
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,300
• Billy Horschel – $10,100
• Brooks Koepka – $10,000
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,900
• Aaron Wise – $9,600
• Patrick Reed – $9,500
• Shane Lowry – $9,300
• Matthew Wolff – $9,200
• Will Zalatoris- $9,100
• Talor Gooch – $9,000

Just remember in picking that marquee name, or in this game players with high price tags that don’t seem to win.  So fantasy golf wisdom states you don’t take any of the top players.  Frankly have to say that Justin Thomas at $11,200 is a high price for what he has done lately which is not much.  Still, we have to respect that his game is ok and that he likes the course  He did finish T-12th last year, still his cost is a bit high for my blood.  Same with Viktor Hovland – $10,900 and Abraham Ancer at $10,700.  Both are great players, Hovland is the defending champion and Ancer won a World Golf Championship back in August.  But it’s three months removed from Ancer’s win and a year since Hovland won.  Think both will finish in the top-20, but it will cost you a bit to see what they will do. Can say one thing, this is not the event that I can base a decision from three months ago or a year ago.  I have the same feelings for Tony Finau at $10,600.  He did finish T-8th last year and T-7th in 2015 so yes Finau could create some problems for the field.  Tyrrell Hatton at $10,300 is also way too inconsistent for me and I will not even think of him.  But one of the guys that I like is Billy Horschel at $10,100.  Horschel has played well, winning the BMW PGA Championship just a few weeks ago.  He has not only been consistent most of the summer and fall, but his record at Mayakoba is also very good, T-5th last year and T-8th in 2020.  The next choice is Brooks Koepka at $10,000, sorry we don’t know if he is healthy plus he has missed the cut twice so he is trying to prove those wrong.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,900 is really high and has played well.  Is he a good pick? He does everything right and has come close to winning several times.  DraftKings wise he averages making 65 points per game, which is ok but for a guy with this high of a price tag it’s not  I am shocked that Aaron Wise is $9,600.  Yes, he was runner-up last year at Mayakoba and was T-8th at Shriners and T-5th at CJ Cup.  But DraftKings wise he averages 60 points per event which is ok, but not at the price they are asking.  Patrick Reed is $9,500, mostly because he was runner-up last week in Bermuda.  But he missed the cut in his only Mayakoba start in 2018 and again worried that he is too high.  Shane Lowry is also high at $9,300 and he hasn’t shown us that he can produce, but he is I think close to putting it together and this could be a good course for him (has never played it).  I like Matthew Wolff at $9,200, he too has not played in this event but I think his game is good for El Camaleon so he is a yes.  Will Zalatoris at $9,100 is hard to gauge.  He was very hot for close to a year now, but lately he has struggled, including missing the cut at the Shriners.  Same with Talor Gooch at $9,000, yes he was T-4th at Fortinet, T-11th at Shriners, and T-5th  at CJ Cup.  Just don’t think he has the game for Mayakoba.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Cameron Tringale at $8,900 is worth a look, yes I know he was T-2nd in Japan two weeks ago, but he hasn’t played well in six tries at Mayakoba and just don’t think this is the week for him.  The same with Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,800.  He has never played in this event and of late hasn’t played that great to give him a shot.  Now Sergio Garcia at $8,700 is worth a try.  He has never played at Mayakoba but I think the course will be good for him and he has played ok the last few months.  Rickie Fowler at $8,600 is also a big question mark.  He did finish 2nd in this event in 2018, but he missed the cut last year.  Think his game has improved, he just needs to work on his confidence.  Also feel that Maverick McNealy at $8,500 is worth the price, he was T-12th in this event last year and his game has been ok of late.  Know that I sound like a broken record on Mito Pereira, this week he is $8,100 and I think worth the money.  Only a short time before he contends.  Another Irishman that I like is Seamus Power who is $7,700.  Now he hasn’t played well at Mayakoba, but his game has come around since he won the Barbasol in July.  He played good last week in Bermuda finishing T-12th.  Emiliano Grillo at $7,500 is a very good pick, in 5 Mayakoba starts has been in the top-14 four times, his worst finish was t-41st. So he could break out this week.  Also hard to believe that last week’s winner Lucas Herbert is $7,500 I don’t think he will win but could get you a lot of points.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Mayakoba Golf Classic

Patrick Rodgers at $7,400 is well worth the cost, has played at Mayakoba seven times with one top-ten.  He was 4th last week in Bermuda and T-6th at Fortinet, he is a great buy.  Also, like Jhonattan Vegas at $7,400.  He will make the cut and get you a lot of points.  Another guy that will make the cut and get you points is C.T. Pan at $7,300.  Like his consistency at Mayakoba and has been solid in 2022.  Another guy that has been very consistent at Mayakoba is Pat Perez who you can get for $7,200.  You want a guy that plays well at Mayakoba and is dirt cheap.  How about Adam Long who is just $7,000.  Long has two starts at Mayakoba and finished T-3rd last year and T-2nd in 2020.  One other great buy is Danny Lee at $6,900.  He has played seven times at Mayakoba and was 2nd in 2019 and T-3rd in 2015.  Last week he was T-2nd at Bermuda.  Last we give you Brice Garnett who is $6,500.  He has been great at Mayakoba, in seven starts he has three top-tens including a 5th in 2019.  Yes he has struggled in three starts in 2020 but we have to forget about that, he is coming to a place that has great vibes.

*So who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Billy Horschel – $10,100
• Matthew Wolff – $9,200
• Sergio Garca – $8,700
• Emiliano Grillo – $7,500
• Patrick Rodgers – $7,400
• Adam Long – $8,000

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Mayakoba Golf Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

• This event has been played since 2007, and even though it gets a lot of younger players participating, older, more experienced players have done well.  One historical oddity is that eleven of the 14 past winners were over 30, with all the winners averaging just a notch below 35.  Last year 23-year-old Viktor Hovland won, only the third player in his 20s to win this championship, and despite his age,  This event tends to older players. Four of the 14 champions are older than 40 years.  Age also means experience, and despite Hovland’s young age, he has a lot of experience. This was his second PGA Tour victory (won 2020 Puerto Rico). So old may be something to look for this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The tournament has had limited stats, still, we can see that if you hit it straight, can deal with the wind, hit a lot lots of greens and putt reasonably well you can win here.  Again long hitters will spend a lot of time at the beach instead of being in contention.  Also in looking at the past winners of this event, done of them were favorites so look for the player you least expect to win.