BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week is the end of the 2021 European Tour season.  Now, this tour is in flex right now.  For over 20 years, its primary source of revenue is when the Ryder Cup is played on a European venue.  In principle, this happens every four years, but it has stretched out another year with the pandemic.  For the last few years, money has been tight, so much that they now have signed an alliance with the PGA Tour to get help from the America Tour.  We saw the fruit of that agreement with the co-sanctioning of three events over the summer.  The first is the European Tour Scottish Open. The other two are the PGA Tour Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship.  Now the big battle ahead for both tours is this new startup league called the World Golf Tour, run by Greg Norman.  They are proposing to field ten new full-field Asian Tour events played in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.  These events would have a $200 million commitment. The money comes from Saudi Arabia, which has deep pockets and is willing to spend $500 million on it.  They are trying to lure PGA and European Tour pros, and to do that, they would pay appearance fees in the neighborhood of $30 million if a top-notch pro agrees to play in all then events.  This model has been brought up every now and then, the first time this happened was in 1994 when Greg Norman attempted to launch the World Golf Tour.  Then PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem dozed the flames by saying that anyone that joined that tour would be banned for life from the PGA Tour.  A few years later, Finchem introduced the World Golf Championship series, a series of high-end events played around the world and a part of all the tours.  This concept proved successful, but after a few years, the series was played mainly in America and lost some of its World appeal.

Last year there were rumblings that a group was asking players if they were interested in the Premier Golf League, which would have ten events played around the world, with events being played in different formats to make things more interesting.  But both the PGA and European Tour put that flame out, saying that players again would be banned for life.

The difference of this new tour run by Norman was wise to make its roots on the Asian Tour, which drastically has needed an influx of money.  The difference of this concept was that players would be in an Asian Tour event, something recognized by all the tours and an event that would get World Ranking points.  They are planning to play the first one in Saudi Arabia in February.  That was an event on the European Tour for the last couple of years, it was dropped by the European Tour and picked up as part of the Asian Tour.  With that being just a single event, they could offer top appearance fees, and players could get a waiver from the PGA or European Tour to play in it. Right now, both tours are allowing that to happen.

For now, it’s a one-time event and will be played with marquee players being signed up now.  But if it becomes a ten-series tour, both the PGA and European Tour will have to ban players.

Now last week, Golfweek ran a story that the PGA Tour is planning a series of lucrative international events, between four and six that will begin in 2023 and be a series that guarantees money to the world’s best players.  The thinking is the European Tour would probably be involved with this and give both tours an incentive for players not to play in the Greg Norman Series.

On top of that, the European Tour announced last week a new partnership with DP World to sponsor a season, and it would go into effect for the 2022 European season.  It would mean the European Tour rebranding itself into the DP World Tour and seeing total prize money in 2022 of at least $200 million.  It would also mean a new minimum prize fund of $2 million for all events on tour.  So this would help give events more of a chance to attract marquee players.

Nobody knows what will happen.  I would not bet against the PGA Tour, they will find some way to protect not only their tour but the European Tour, and we can now see some of the actions both tours are putting into effect.  It will be interesting to see what happens with this Saudi International event played between February 3 to 6.  Some of the players who have committed to play in it include defending champion Dustin Johnson along with Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau, and Viktor Hovland to name some of them.  Also, the event is signed up for worldwide viewership, including Golf Channel in the United States and Sky Sports in England.  Both of these networks are the primary source of golf coverage.

This week

Have to say that this week’s field for the DP World, Dubai is one of the best fields they have ever gotten.  Unfortunately, one player they couldn’t get was U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm. Still, just about every marquee name on the European Tour is in the field, along with Top stars of the PGA Tour, Colin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer, Bill Horschel, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, and Will Zalatoris.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by five different players, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson.  All of them except Stenson are in the field.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Two essential elements come across in the previous 12 winners.  First is driving distance, eight of the 12 winners were in the top ten while three (Jon Rahm 2017, Rory McIlroy 2015, and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year winners Matt Fitzpatrick was T-6th, 2019 champion Jon Rahm was 1st, 2018 Danny Willett was T-3rd, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  Last year Matt Fitzpatrick was T-6th in Greens hit, 1st in fairways hit, and T-8th in putting.  In 2019 Jon Rahm was T-7th in fairways hit, 1st in greens hit, and T-11th in putting.
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick was 8 under, 2019 winner Jon Rahm was 13 under, best of anyone along in tournament history. 2018 winner Danny Willett was 12 under, in 2017 Rahm was 8 under while Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them in 2016,  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them, and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also, at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011, while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all the winners have played the par 4s well; last year Fitzpatrick played them in 7 under, Rahm in 2019 was 4 under,  Willett in 2018 was 4 under, in 2017, Rahm was 12 under, while in 2016 Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under, while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009, while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• There is zero chance of rain in the next week, and the wind will be moderate between 11 and 14 mph each day.  Again look for low scores as temperature with be in the high 80s each day.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,700
• Collin Morikawa – $11,500
• Abraham Ancer – $10,800
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,600
• Sergio Garcia – $10,300
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,000
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,600
• Paul Casey – $9,400
• Billy Horschel – $9,200
• Shane Lowry – $9,000

I will put more resources into this event than the RSM.  Think that I have a better chance because have a better understanding of European Tour players and the outcome always seems to have a better result with marquee names doing ok.  The only problem, the games aren’t that big with big prizes and games worth playing, oh well.  The first choice by DraftKings is Rory McIlroy at $11,700 and there is a great reason for that.  In his last start, he won the C.J. Cup in Las Vegas and he has played well in this event with two wins and eight top-ten finishes, including a 4th the last time he played here in 20119. So yes even at the price you have to pick him but beware you won’t be able to take any other high price talent.  Now I don’t think he will tank, but if he doesn’t finish in the top ten it will be a blow.  But as you can see by my Draftkings picks I have McIlroy.  Next is Collin Morikawa at $11,500 and how much I would love to take both McIlroy and Morikawa.  It put a serious kink in my picks for McIlroy as I had to average $7,600 in my remaining five players.  If you take both McIlroy and Morikawa, you have an average of just $6,700 a player for your next four picks and I just can’t do it.  So you have a choice, either Morikawa who was T-10th in his sole Dubai start and being the British Open champ, or McIlroy.  Again Morikawa is not a bad choice, just like McIlroy more.  Next is Abraham Ancer – $10,800 I feel his is very over priced since he has never played in this event and yes was T-7th at Mayakoba but has just played steady and nothing spectacular since his Memphis win in August. Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,600.  He has a lot of upsides because he has won on this course twice, last year and in 2016 so you can’t go wrong with him.  The same with Sergio Garcia at $10,300, he too is playing well and has five top-tens in nine Dubai starts, the best being T-4th in 2017 and T-6th in 2019.  My first real no is Tyrrell Hatton at $10,000.   Yes, his record at Dubai is ok, in seven starts has four top-tens, the best being a 2nd in 2016, was T-8th last year.  But Hatton has struggled since missing the cut at the U.S. Open.  He missed the cut at the British Open and in his ten starts since the U.S. Open only has one top-15 finish, runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill.  In his last two starts, he missed the cut in Houston and was T-40th at Mayakoba so that is why he is a no.  As for Tommy Fleetwood at $9,800 he was 2nd in Dubai in 2019 and T-10th last year.  In his last start, he had a T-13th last week in AVIV Dubai and T-7th at the Zozo Championship in Japan so for many they will pick him, I think there are better choices so I say no.   Bernd Wiesberger at $9,600 is always a tough sell no matter what his price is and his record in this event isn’t good, just one top-ten in eight starts, so he is a no.  Now Paul Casey at $9,400 is a strange case because DraftKings shows him as a withdrawal.  But the European Tour shows him playing, this happened last week as the DraftKings showed that he withdrew but he finished T-31st at the AVIV Dubai.  As for this week, he hasn’t played great in this Dubai event and his year has been slow no top-20s in his last six starts going back to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in August.  At first, I was very interested in Billy Horschel at $9,200, but in heavy study, I no longer am interested in him.  He has not played in Dubai and other than a win at the BMW PGA Championship he has struggled since winning the Match Play in March.  Shane Lowry at $9,000 is a possibility, he was T-2nd in this event back in 2017 and was T-12th in 2019.  He comes into this week missing the cut in Houston and Mayakoba so you can’t really pick him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First up is Patrick Reed at $8,900, at Dubai, he was T-3rd last year, T-28th in 2019, and runner-up in 2018 also with two top-ten finishes.  He has been consistent and did finish T-2nd in Bermuda so it’s best to keep an open mind on picking him.  Thomas Pieters at $8,600 is ok to pick him, was T-6th at Dubai in 2019, T-36th in 2020.  Like that his last start was a win at the Portugal Masters so he is a person to watch.  Also, like Antoine Rozner at $8,400, he was T-36th last year in his only Dubai start but was T-4th last week in the AVIV Dubai Championship.  Also, like Laurie Canter at $8,300. He was T-5th at Dubai last year plus he was T-5th at Mallorca, T-4th at Andalucia Masters, and T-2nd at BMW PGA Championship.  Now the person I like the most in this price range is Dean Burmester at $8,000.  In his three Dubai starts was T-14th last year, T-4th in 2018 and 2017.  But the reason for taking him just two weeks ago he won the South African PGA Championship.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the DP World

In looking at some bargains, one has to be Sean Crocker at $7,300.  He was T-14th last year at Dubai plus he was T-8th last week at the AVIV Dubai Championship.  Masahiro Kawamura is $7,00 and in his first Dubai, last year was T-14th.  Also, like Garrick Higgo who in his Dubai debut last year was T-14th.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $6,800 is worth it, he has been solid in Dubai with a T-9th in 2014.  He won last month in the Spanish Open.  Last is Jason Scrivener at $6,100, I liked him for finishing T-10th in his only Dubai start in 2019, he has been consistent of late and did finish 2nd in the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in January.

*So who are my six DraftKings picks for this week?

• Rory McIlroy $11,700
• Antoine Rozner – $8,400
• Laurie Canter – $8,300
• Dean Burmester – $8,000
• Sean Crocker – $7,300
• Jason Scrivener – $6,100