Waialae Key Fantasy Stats

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 13th – 16th, 2022

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, HI

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,044

Purse: $7.5 million

with $1,350,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Kevin Na

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, based on data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and using data from all the players in the field averaging the rank from 2022 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on tour (7th easiest). The important reason for such an easy scoring average was perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the biggest change was part of the course, going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind, and in 2020 they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday, 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. For this year, it’s going to be a different story, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 13 mph each day.

Of course, as we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds, the scores were low. So in looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players, like it was in Kapalua. That brings in a different realm of players, those with explosive offensive will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course but still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than Kapalua, which was wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year the course ranked 19th in driving accuracy as the players hit 57.64 of the fairways. Last year’s winner Kevin Na was not very straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In 2020 things were different as with the lack of rough, the field was more accurately as 65.53% of the fairways were hit, and it ranked 32nd. The previous year with hard, the fairways were hit 56.27% of the time, making it a more demanding course as it ranked 13th. In 2018 and 2017, it ranked 14th, so hitting fairways is essential. 2020 winner Cameron Smith was T-41st in Driving Accuracy, which wasn’t that great. The year before, it was important and one of the keys to why Matt Kuchar won in 2019 as he ranked T-4th in driving accuracy. Kuchar was also great in strokes gained tee-to-green. He was 3rd along with being 7th in strokes gained approach-the-green. Now last year’s winner Na wasn’t that great as he was 44th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 4th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the great weather.
In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something that all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 15 of the 20 were in the top-12 while seven of the 20 were in the top three. Last year Cameron Smith let us down as he ranked T-29th in Greens hit. The same with 2020 winner Cameron Smith who ranked 20th, but the previous year, 2019, Matt Kuchar showed the importance of this stat, hitting 60 of the 72 greens to lead the field and becoming the third winner since 1997 to lead that stat (John Huston in 1998 & Jimmy Walker in 2015). So our second category is Greens in Regulation. Last year the course was the 48th hardest on tour as the field hit 73.21 of the greens (The course was easy to hit as only 3 courses had more greens hit). In contrast, during the 2020 Sony Open, 64.51% of the greens were hit as the course ranked 14th.
Next is Par Breakers since Waialae had the 46th most birdies on the PGA Tour last year with 1,795 and the 44th highest in Eagles with 60. In 2020 with different conditions, only 1,269 birdies were made as the course ranked 23rd and 34 eagles were made, which ranked T-24th.
Last is par 5 scoring average. Typically a course with just two par-5s wouldn’t be on our list, but the two par 5s at Waialae are very easy. Last year the par 5th 9th was the 2nd easiest hole on the PGA Tour in 2021, playing to a 4.171 average. The par 5 18th was the 15th hardest (out of 918) and played to a 4.408 average. The two par 5s accounted for 539 birdies and 32 eagles. Last year in the four rounds, Kevin Smith was 8 under on the par 5s, in 2020, Cameron Smith was 6 under on the par 5, while Matt Kuchar was 8 under in 2019.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who it’s the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 4th easiest in greens hit during 2021.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Par 5 scoring average: Have to go low on the two par 5s at Waialae.

128 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.