BlogAmerican Express Preview and Picks

The Buzz

For years the event was one of the top events and never had to worry about sponsorship as Chrysler was a part of the event since its early years.  But when Chrysler dropped sponsorship in 2008, it left the tournament very venerable.  It no longer had Bob Hope’s influence, who grew too old to participate in the 90s, and when he died in 2003, the event was in chaos.  With Hope, the event had a firm footing as players loved to be a part of the event, and they got the best of stars playing with the players.  But just after Hope died, the stars didn’t show up, and players found participating in a five-day, 90 hole event too much.  This event’s difference was that it was played in five days on four different courses, and the pro was paired with four amateurs.  The AT&T Pebble Beach was over four days over three courses, but it paired the golfer with a celebrity for the 3 days in which each pairing was two professionals with two amateurs.  So this was more of a team event between the player and amateur.  But the Hope had a professional with four different amateurs over four days, players hated this more and more.

This went on for three years after Chrysler left, and after the 2011 event, many thought the tournament was finished. That wasn’t the case, Tim Finchem and the Tour worked an arrangement with Bill Clinton to get his foundation involved and then got Humana to take over sponsorship.  The format changed from a 90 hole tournament to 72 holes, which help coax more players to attend.  Humana stuck around for four years before leaving as the sponsor, but the tour got CareerBuilders to step in and take over through 2021, so it was thought that the event was on a substantial foundation.  But CareerBuilder’s stepped away after 2018, and things got foggy again.  The event went on in 2019 without a sponsor, while another was found, which just happened to be American Express.

One reason why a sponsor was easier to find was what the tournament did after the 2014 event was played.  The most popular home venue for the tournament was the Palmer Course, which was the home course for 14 of the 17 years between 1999 and 2015.  But after 2015, the Palmer private, along with Nicklaus private, didn’t want to be a part of the tournament. It was a terrible deal for tournament officials because they realized the importance of the Palmer course after a disastrous change in 2006 when the event was played at the Classic Club for three years.  Along with the PGA Tour, Tournament officials made what could have been a very controversial decision to bring the Stadium Course out of retirement, the Pete Dye design course, which held the event in 1987 to a lot of complaints.

Back then, the course was stunning on television, but the players hated it.  In the age of persimmon drivers and balata balls, the players thought the Dye track was too hard and “gimmicky”  with its island green, 20-foot-deep bunkers, a green surrounded by a nine-foot moat style bunker.  Hitting drives was demanding because if the fairways were missed, the ball’s chances are in a bush or behind a tree.  The course was the most penal course in the Palm Springs area and the country.  On top of that, the players hated how long it took to play.  Playing with amateurs, it took over six hours to get around.

The players demonized the course as being too hard, and it was.  Over the course of 25 years, all the courses that held the Desert Classic ranked very easily and were known as places to make lots of eagles and birdies.  But that wasn’t the case with PGA West in 1987. The field played two rounds on the course in 1987, and they didn’t like it at all.  For the week, it played to a 74.157 average,  two shots over par for the field.  It ranked as the 7th hardest course that year, with the players loudly voicing their displeasure in the days after Corey Pavin won.  When the Tour dropped the TPC Stadium Course a few weeks later, it made many players very happy and it was thought that it would never have another PGA Tour event.

In 1987 of the 18 holes played at PGA West, 16 of them played over par.  The only ones under were the par 5, 8th, and the par 4, 12th. Hard to believe that three of the four par 5s were over par, and the 11th hole played to a 5.308 average.  In the 35 years since, only ten par 5s played harder, with the 14th at Pebble Beach playing the hardest.

So the question in 2016 was if players thought that PGA West, which was impossible 29 years previous, would play differently?  Over the three decades, the course was softened.  Bushes and small trees that use to line the fairways had been removed, making the fairways more generous.  The moat bunker at 12 is gone, and with golf equipment better and the course gaining only 190 yards, it still looked speculator on TV but didn’t kill the pros. When the course returned in 2016, it played to an average of 70.818, making it the 41st hardest of 50 courses.  In 1987, 16 of the 18 holes played over par.  In 2016 only seven played over par.  More importantly, the players loved playing the course, and many thought it was one of the best courses of the year.  So going into the 2017 event, the course was again the star.  Things didn’t change that year as the course played to an average of 71.588 and was the 30th hardest course of the year (mostly because of the wet weather all four days).  Despite it being harder, there was nothing but praise as players loved the Stadium Course.  In 2018 things were more of the same, it played to a 71.18 average and was the 36th hardest course for the year.  In 2019 the course played to a 70.84 scoring average and was the 40th hardest course for 2019.  Last year it played to a 70.81 average and was the 36th hardest (out of 51 courses).  So the course went from one of the difficult courses in golf to one that was very manageable.  More importantly, players have loved the course, so it’s now become a fixture for this event.

Major changes for 2021

With the solid footings of American Express, the event looked like it would have a bright and fun future for many more years.  But with the Pandemic out of hand in California, significant changes were made.  The most brutal change for the tournament was the pro-am portion was dropped, so no amateur partners.  With the amateurs being dropped, that meant that 624 players wouldn’t be playing, so the sponsors illuminated one course, and it will was played on just two courses.  Because the Nicklaus course shares the same clubhouse with the Stadium course, they had to drop LaQuinta, which has been a regular course since it joined the rota in 1963.  In the 58 years since it’s only missed nine events in 1980, 1987, 1989, 1990,1993, 1996,1999, 2002, and 2009.

But the big deal was that players got to play the Stadium Course for three of the four days and television, which means getting more marquee players on TV.

Reverting back for 2022.

So things are back to normal, the amateurs are back and La Quinta Country Club is back in the rota, holding one of the four rounds.  This will be a special year for La Quinta as it will be the 50th time the American Express is being played on it.  It’s funny when La Quinta debuted in 1964 it was considered a very difficult course with its tight fairways and small greens.  Funny how things have evolved as in the 58 years since it’s gone from one of the toughest courses on tor to one of the easiest today.

Some other things that are back are fans and along with the fans, they will enjoy some of the post-round concerts.  This year Maroon 5 with Adam Levine will be playing on Friday while Brad Paisley will be playing on Saturday.  So the American Express will be back to normal

So how many of you know who Bob Hope is???

For many, you ask them who Bob Hope was unfortunately, many don’t realize how important he was in the entertainment world.  He was probably the most significant comedian between the 1930s and 90s and hosted this event between 1965 and his death in 2003 at age 100. Hope’s name was the fixture until it was dropped in 2012.

Yes, Bob Hope would be proud that the event is still popular today.  Of course, this event has competition as it’s played the same week as the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour.  Abu Dhabi has an excellent field of marquee players like Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Adam Scott, and Tommy Fleetwood. But the Desert Classic has a solid base of good players, as this year Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, and Phil Mickelson are in the field.

So will the low scoring continue at The American Express?

Scoring has always been low in this event.  Since it went from 90 holes to 72 in 2012 the range of scores has been from 20 under par (in 2017) to as low as 28 under by Patrick Reed in 2014.  59 has been shot twice in this event, first by David Duval in the final round at the Palmer Course in 1999.  In 2017 Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta.  As for the Stadium course, Patrick Cantlay shot 61 in the final round last year.  Showing how you have to shoot low, of the 11 players that finished in the top-ten in last year’s American Express, only two rounds saw a score over par for any round. Of the 44 rounds played by those 11 players, 36 rounds were in the 60s so we can see that scoring will be low.

In the two weeks of play in Hawaii, Cameron Smith was 34 under at Kapalua while Hideki Matsuyama was 23 under in the Sony Open.

So let’s play a little Monday quarterbacking and pick who will go low this week.  One thing, Smith and Matsuyama aren’t playing and of the previous nine fall events, Sungjae Im (won Shriners Children’s with a 24 under total) and Talor Gooch (won RSM Classic with a 22 under total) are the only winners of 2022 in the field at the American Express.

Im could be a very good pick, in three visits to the American Express he is 48 under, he finished T-12th in 2018, T-10th in 2020, and T-12th last year.

Gooch is also a good pick, in four visits to the American Express he is 58 under par finishing T-67th in 2018, 4th in 2019, T-17th in 2020, and T-21st in 2021.

Who else should we be looking at?  First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.  

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

A couple of people off the top, of course, Jon Rahm who won this event in 2018.  Also one of my favorites, Adam Hadwin who was T-6th in 2016, 2nd in 2017, T-3rd in 2018, and T-2nd in 2019.  Hadwin didn’t play in 2020 because his wife was having the couple’s first child, but when he got back last year he had a disappointing T-32nd finish.  We also have to mention that Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler are playing.  For Cantlay he was T-9th in 2019 and 2nd last year so he will create a lot of interest.  The same with Scheffler who was 3rd in 2020 and missed the cut last year.  Another player not to forget is Abraham Ancer who was 2nd in 2020 and T-5th last year.  We also can’t forget about Tony Finau who was T-14th in 2020 and T-4th last year.

Off the wall players?

Many will not think of Michael Thompson, who was T-9th in 2019, who missed the cut in 2020 and T-5th last year.  I mention Thompson because he shot a final round 63 at the Sony Open to finish T-5th.  Another player to watch is Seamus Power who last played in the American Express in 2019 and missed the cut.  But the previous year was T-11th and was T-21st in 2017.  I like Power because he has been lights out in 2022.  In his last three starts was T-4th at the RSM Classic, T-15th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and shot 65-65 over the weekend to finish T-3rd at the Sony.

One last player to think about is Rickie Fowler.  Yes, he has not played well the last two years but can see signs that he possibly is breaking out of his slump.  He was T-3rd at the CJ Cup in October, just think he is ready to play well again.

Course information:

A unique event that will return to three courses this year with PGA West Stadium hosting two of the four rounds.

7,113 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 76.1 rating and slope rating of 150 from the championship tees, making it one of the country’s hardest.

The course was designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1986.  Dye was hired by the Landmark developing company, which was big in the 80s with over a dozen courses worldwide.  Landmark owners Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser gave Dye the task to build them the most challenging course in the World.

Along with the 1987 Desert Classic, the Skins Game was held on the course between 1986 and 1991.  PGA Tour qualifying school was held six times, the last being 2008, but the hint that the course was becoming more playable was when the Champions Tour had the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on it in 1995 and ’96.  The seniors took a liking to the course, which was softened for that event.

The average green size is 6,500 square feet, and the course has close to a hundred bunkers around it.  Water comes into play on nine of the holes, and the Desert Classic course record is 61 by Patrick Cantlay in the final round in 2021.

Last year the course played to a 70.381 average and was the 36th hardest course on tour (out of 51 courses).

Now the course may be one of the most intimidating courses on the PGA Tour, but thanks to some work is very manageable.  In 2021, 447 rounds were played on it, with 103 rounds in the 70s, 179 under par rounds, 38 rounds at even par, and only 81 rounds over par.

Other course used in the Rota:

• La Quinta C.C.
• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 74.2 rating and slope rating of 136 from the championship tees

The course is private and not open to the public and returns to the rota after not being played in 2021.

La Quinta was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in, rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course and made them all come into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. It was given to La Quinta Country Club by the Novotny family in memory of Frank Capra.

The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards as eight holes are affected.  La Quinta was first used as a tournament course in 1964 and after this year will be a part of 50 of the 63 Desert Classic and historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977, 1980, and 1983.

Here is the scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2021 – No event due to COVID-19
• 2020 – 69.176 average, easiest of the 41 courses used for the year
• 2019 – 68.718 average, easiest of the 49 courses used for the year
• 2018 – 68.831 average, easiest of the 51 courses used for the year
• 2017 – 69.635 average, 2nd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2016 – 69.148 average, 3rd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2015 – 70.083 average, 6th easiest of 52 courses used for the year
• 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for the year
• 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for the year
• 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for the year
• 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for the year
• 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for the year

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,159 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 143 from the championship tees.

The course is open to the public.

The course is a tamer version of its neighbor, the Stadium course.  Look for lots of birdies to be made as the fairways are generous, and the greens should be easy to hit.  The Nicklaus course held the final PGA Tour qualifying tournament on the course in 1988, ’90. ’93, 2000, ’02, ’04, ’06, ’08, ’12, and ’13, so many of the players in the field will have played it.

Last year the course was used for the fifth straight year and had blended very well into the tournament.  The course had a 70.95 average making it the 34th hardest of 51 courses used on the PGA Tour in 2021.

COURSE KEYS

We won’t have course keys since the event was played on three different courses in previous years.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,300
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,900
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,600
• Tony Finau – $10,200
• Sungjae Im – $9,900
• Talor Gooch- $9.700
• Seamus Power – $9,500
• Corey Conners – $9,400
• Matthew Wolff – $9,300
• Abraham Ancer – $9,200
• Will Zalatoris – $9,100
• Russell Henley – $9.000

Have to say in looking at the prices, it’s going to be a hard time picking.  The top players have good records at the Amex plus they are playing well, so they are not risky propositions.  A perfect example is Jon Rahm at $11,300, he almost won his last start at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and has played great in this event, winning it in 2018.  The reason for him not playing the last couple of years just didn’t fit into his schedule, but he has added it this year and we know he will contend.  Same with Patrick Cantlay, at $10,900.  Yes, I like Cantlay, who was runner-up in this event last year and played well finishing 4th at Kapalua, so we have to think he is going to contend this week.  Unfortunately, there is probably no way of taking both Rahm and Cantlay without seriously affecting the rest of your picks and leaving you with very little latitude.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,600 is also a good choice, yes he missed the cut last year but feel that was a fluke, he was 3rd in 2020.  This will be Scheffler’s first start since finishing 2nd at the Hero World, he also was T-2nd at Houston and 4th at Mayakoba, so Scheffler is a great start, yes expensive but worth the money.  Tony Finau at $10,200 is our first question mark, yes he was 4th last year and T-14th in 2020.  But he has been very inconsistent of late, was T-19th at Kapalua, and really struggled in the fall, so take a pass on Finau.  Sungjae Im at $9,900 is also a toss-up, he was T-12th last year and in 2019, T-10th in 2020.  But missed the cut last week in the Sony and was T-8th at Kapalua.  Talor Gooch at $9.700 is also a toss-up, he has played ok at the Amex, was 4th in 2019.  He has also played ok in the Hawaii swing, nothing special but still was 32 under par and produced eight rounds of 70 or under.  So he could be ready to bust out this week.  Seamus Power at $9,500 is a yes for me, he has played three times at the Amex with mixed results, T-21st in 2017, T-11th in 2018, and missed the cut in 2019.  But like his players of last, was T-4th at RSM, T-15th at Kapalua, and T-3rd at the Sony Open.  In these three events shot in the 60s in 11 of 12 rounds and was 54 under in those 12 rounds.  Corey Conners at $9,400 is still a question mark for me.  Yes has played consistently since finishing T-15th at the British Open and was 11th last week at the Sony.  But in two starts at the Amex has struggled to a T-50th finish in 2018 and missed the cut in 2019.  Best to take a pass on him with so many other great choices around him.  Same with the rest of the picks in this category, have to look them over carefully.  An example of that is Matthew Wolff at $9,300, has finished T-61st in 2020 and T-40th last year.  Played well in the fall as he was in the top-17 in all four starts including a runner-up in the desert in Las Vegas.  Makes you wonder if he can finish runner-up in the desert of Las Vegas maybe he can play well this week.  Abraham Ancer at $9,200 is also worth looking at, was T-5th last year at the Amex and 2nd in 2020.  But he is a no for me, missed the cut at the Sony, was T-35th at the Sentry, and T-14th at the Hero, sorry that gives me zero confidence in his play right now.  The same with Will Zalatoris at $9,100.  He has never played in the Amex but what worries me is his lack of play.  He was forced to withdraw at the British Open and after finishing T-8th at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude has not had a top-ten.  he missed the cut at the Mayakoba and was T-37th at the DP World Championship, Dubai so it’s probably best to watch him in the early stages of the west coast swing and pass on him this week.  Many will think Russell Henley is a good pick at $9.000, but I have to feel he is disappointed in losing a five-shot lead to Hideki Matsuyama at the Sony, but the real reason to pass on Henley, he has missed the cut in his last four Amex starts.

I like this feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 American Express on who has made the most cuts at the Amex.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three American Express starts.

• Adam Hadwin made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Sam Ryder made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Talor Gooch made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Jon Rahm made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,300.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Trey Mullinax made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• James Hahn made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• John Huh made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Kevin Chappell made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Charles Howell III made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Brendan Steele made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Cameron Tringale made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Abraham Ancer made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Andrew Landry made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Andrew Putnam made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Bronson Burgoon made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Francesco Molinari made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Brian Harman made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Adam Schenk made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Gary Woodland made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Rickie Fowler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Si Woo Kim made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Tony Finau made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.
• Tyler Duncan made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Rory Sabbatini made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Russell Knox made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Jason Dufner made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $8,900 that are worth the price:

Many will take Cameron Tringale at $8,900 based mostly on his good play over the fall and many think he will be the next non-winner to finally win.  I wouldn’t pick him this week, his record is dismal at the Amex, in 11 starts his best finish was T-14th.  Best to wait a bit on Tringale.  Now for us looking for an off-the-wall pick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout may be a good pick at $8,700.  Has never played at the American Express, but has some good finishes playing in the desert of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.  He was T-17th at the Sony Open with four rounds in the 60s.  Rickie Fowler at $8,500 is a person to consider.  He was T-21st at the Amex last year and T-10th in 2020, just feel he has put a lot of time and effort into his game and we will see.  Have to say this, he still has a free ride on the PGA Tour but if he has another terrible year in 2022, that will affect his playing status for 2023.  Brian Harman at $7,900 is worth the look at, he was T-8th last year at the Amex and T-3rd in 2017.  In his play in 2022, he hasn’t been bad but hasn’t been great, feel it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out.  Same with Adam Hadwin at $7,900.  He owned this event since it moved to the stadium course finishing T-6th in 2016, 2nd in 2017, T-3rd in 2018, and T-2nd in 2019.  Wasn’t able to play in 2020 due to the birth of his first child and on returning in 2021 was disappointed to finish T-32nd.  In 2022 he has been ok, did finish T-6th in the desert at the Shriners kind of giving us a hint that his future is in the desert.  Now of all the folks to think about, how about Michael Thompson at $7,500.  He was T-5th last year at the Amex, was T-9th in 2019 and last week finished T-5th at the Sony with scores of 63-67-69-63.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Many will think that Phil Mickelson at $7,400 is a good bet.  Yes, he has won twice and was T-2nd in 2019, but missed the cut in 2020 and ’21, I just think he is at risk of missing the cut so I won’t take him.  Now I was totally stunned to see Jason Day at $7,300 and never play in the American Express.  His price is cheap and I just have to think he will make the cut so he is a good “bargain.”  Andrew Landry at $7,200 is worth the gamble, on top of winning in 2020 he was 2nd in 2018 and has played well in 2022.  Andrew Putnam at $7,100 should be considered, he has been consistent at the Amex including a T-10th in 2020 and T-21st last year.  If you are looking for a really cheap pick that will make the cut, try Sam Ryder at $6,400.  He has made the cut four out of four times at the Amex and could provide you a player to get a lot of points that are cheap.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Desert Classic

The key stat for the winner:

• The addition of PGA West TPC Stadium Course now gives the tournament a bit more of a challenge.  You won’t find any 59s shot on this course, in its first year 2016, 65 was the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2017 Dominic Bozzelli shot 64 in the first round, making it the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course, which was one of the 50 rounds shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2018 Kevin Chappell shot 64 in the second round, and Sam Saunders shot 64 in the final round, the low at the Stadium Course.  In 2019 several 64s were shot at PGA West, but still, the possibility of someone shooting 63 or lower is small.  In 2020 we saw a new course record as Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer both shot 63. Now Patrick Cantlay broke all of the records last year when he shot 61 in the final round.  Still, the key here is that low scores aren’t shot on this course like the others.
• The most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  Last year because of COVID the rules were changed and only two courses were used.  But this year there will be three courses used and we go back to 2020 when two of the four rounds played PGA West Stadium Course produced 22 eagles and 980 birdies.  Remember that this course had each player go around twice on the course, while the other two courses held one round for each player.  La Quinta had 20 eagles and 763 birdies while Nicklaus Tournament had 15 eagles and 762 birdies. So a key stat, to look at for this week, is Par Breakers on tour.  Of the top-15 on that list playing this week is Jon Rahm, Matthew Wolff, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, and Russell Henley so they could also be good picks.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• This week the pros will play over three courses in four days, quite a learning scale with very little time to prepare and learn two new courses.  Making it even harder for those coming from Hawaii unless they took red-eyes on Sunday Night or missed the cut; they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still, it’s better than the days when this event was played over five days.
• Another problem for the pros, the first three days, they play with two amateurs.  So patience is needed to tolerate those five-plus-hour rounds.  Look for experienced players to do well, those with a long track record at the Desert Classic should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 6th start.  But things have changed over the years, last year Si Woo Kim played in his fourth Amex.  In 2019 Adam Long was playing in his first American Express, in 2018, Jon Rahm won on his second try in the event.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford won on his fourth start, while in 2016, Jason Dufner won on his 7th try.  In 2015 Bill Haas won on his 11th try, while the year before Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th American Express start, while 2012 winner Mark Wilson made his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes, Adam Long won last year, Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011, and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Long, Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.
• As we said before, the winner will have to make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004 while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008 along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010, and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013. In 2014, Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies, along with two eagles, while in 2015, Bill Haas made one eagle and 22 birdies.  In 2016 on new courses, Jason Dufner went low and had 30 birdies.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford had 26 birdies.  In 2018 Jon Rahm had an eagle and 26 birdies, while in 2019, Adam Long made 3 eagles and 24 birdies.  In 2020 Andrew Landry made 31 birdies and not eagles, which helps make the point that to win, they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every ten holes played.  Last year was a bit different since the Stadium Course was played three times, winner Si Woo Kim only made on eagle and 23 birdies.
• Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 23 winners have averaged a bit under 14 under on them, with Phil Mickelson playing them in 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003, and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.    Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005; Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006, Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007, while D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them, with Pat Perez setting the record for playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010, while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under, while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  In 2015 Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.  Jason Dufner went low in 2016, playing the par 5s in 12 under.  In 2017 Hudson Swafford broke tradition as he played the par 5s in 8 under, the first time since 1997 that someone was in single figures on the par 5s.  In 2018 Jon Rahm played the par 5s in 13 under par, while in 2019, Adam Long played them in 11 under par.  2020 winner Andrew Landry also played the par 5s in 11 under.  Even though Si Woo Kim had to play the Stadium Course three times, he did great on the par 5s, playing them in 13 under.
• The weather will be picture perfect this year with each day being in the high 70s with very little wind.  Now over the last month, the La Quinta weather has been very wet with a lot of rain, so the courses could be softer than past years.