Blog4th Rd Sure Bets Farmers

Farmers Insurance Open

January 26th – 29th, 2022

Torrey Pines South Course

San Diego, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,765

Purse: $8.4 million

with $1,512,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Patrick Reed

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:

Farmers “Sure Bets”

3rd round results picks for the final round

Exciting 3rd round, all of the folks like Jon Rahm, who everyone thought would trout through and take a big lead going into the final round. Same with Thomas and even Cameron Tringale. All three stumbled on Friday as Rahm stumbled to a 72, including a double-bogey on the 10th hole Now have to say, in watching today, Rahm played better than the score showed. It seemed that Rahm hit some great putts that didn’t go into the hole, his 72 could have easily been a 68. As for Justin Thomas didn’t hit the ball very well, hitting only 4 of 14 fairways and hitting only 11 of 18 greens. He also struggled on the back nine, a matter of fact, a lot of those in the late groups struggled as it got very cold and windy in the last four and five holes they played.
But the great things about golf, while leaders struggle, are always people that will find a way to do well, and Will Zalatoris, Jason Day, Aaron Rai, and Maverick McNealy played great to take the lead. Zalatoris did great on the front nine, shooting five-under 31. Then he was flawless on the back nine, making birdies at 10 and 14, then held on for dear life to make pars coming in for the low round of the day, a 65. For Zalatoris, playing in his 40th PGA Tour event looks like he may finally get his first PGA Tour win. Before embedding his name on the trophy, there are many talented people around him. First, he is only a shot ahead of Jon Rahm, who we all know won’t roll over and die, he will find a way to rejuvenate himself, and we know he will be in the running on Saturday. Only two shots back are Justin Thomas, Cameron Tringale, and Sungjae Im, any one of them could play well on Saturday. There are three others that we haven’t talked about yet. The first is Aaron Rai, a rookie on the PGA Tour. Rai is 26 years old and has played on the European Tour for five years. Englishman Rai got into golf by accident. Hurting himself with a hockey stick as a toddler, Rai’s mother went out to buy plastic sticks to make things safer. She returned with plastic golf clubs instead, and Rai was hooked. He turned pro in 2012 and, after playing on the EuroPro tour, joined the Challenge Tour full time in 2016. When Rai won the Kenya Open in 2017, it was a memorable victory in more ways than one. Rai’s mother is of Kenyan-Indian descent and had not visited the country in 47 years, so it was a special win for the family. He joined the European Tour in 2017 and won for the first time at the Hong Kong Open in 2019. A year later, Rai defeated Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff to win the Scottish Open, his most significant win to date. A year later, Rai played in four events on the PGA Tour and earned enough non-member FedExCup points to play in the Korn Ferry Tour finals. In his first start at the Albertsons Boise Open, despite making a double bogey on the 72nd hole, he finished one shot back of winner Greyson Sigg. Despite the final hole catastrophe, the good news was that he was able to secure his PGA Tour card for the 2021-22 season with his runner-up finish. He has already played in ten events, and his best finish so far was T-15th at Mayakoba. So going into the final round, we will see what Rai has and if he can play well enough to win. He will be in the final group with Will Zalatoris and Jason Day. We haven’t talked about Day yet, and I am delighted that he has finally gotten his game back, and he seems healthy again. Five years ago, Day was considered one of the best on the PGA Tour, but numerous injuries to his neck and back have sidelined him. This could be the healthiest he has been in seven years when he won the PGA Championship in 2015. His last win came at the Wells Fargo Championship in 2018. Now I am a bit disappointed that Day is in the running. I say that on a greedy point because he would be my super-duper out-of-the-blue pick for Pebble Beach next week after his play in the first and second rounds. Guess the cat is out of the bag on Day.

So I guess it’s down to the hardcore facts that I am stalling, the results of the third-round picks were terrible, I lost all three. The first one, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, shot 72 to get beat by Justin Rose, who shot 69. In our second bet, Joaquin Niemann shot 71 and lost to Billy Horschel, who shot 69. Then in our last bet, Jason Day’s 67 beat Ryan Palmer, who played well but shot 69. So I was swept.

So what picks do I have for the final round?

In hindsight, I was apprehensive about making picks for the third round. As I wrote, it was a struggle to find any “Sure Bets,” and maybe that is an omen that we should have just said there wasn’t any, and let’s talk before the final round. But we did make picks, and they were all losers, maybe there is a lesson there. So let’s see if we can do any better for the final round. Draftkings has given us 12 possible matchups, and again there is not much that is jumping out at us.
The first one I like is the matchup between Scott Scheffler Vs. Hideki Matsuyama. Schauffele is at 7 under par and has been relatively consistent all week. He tees it up on the first tee at 12:50. Meanwhile, Matsuyama struggled to a 73 on Friday in a round of 17 pars and one bogey. Matsuyama is struggling in all parts of his game, but his putting stats are dreadful, and he isn’t hitting the ball very well. He is going off at 1:20 on the 10th tee, and I feel this is an easy one to handicap, Scheffler has the advantage. Schauffele is priced at -115, so in looking for a return of $9.34, he is our first bet.
Second, on our list is the matchup between Scottie Scheffler Vs. Daniel Berger. Now Scheffler is off the first tee at 1:20 while Berger is off at 1:40. Now Berger played superbly on Friday by shooting a bogey-free 68. But frankly, I don’t know how he did it. In watching the early coverage on ESPN Plus on every shot, Berger was wincing in pain, and his back, which has given him problems for years now, was acting up. He hit shots all over, and frankly, I thought he would withdraw, he looked that much in pain. I think he was able to change his swing throughout the round to compensate for the pain, but I have to wonder if he can do it two days in a row. So I am taking Scheffler, priced at -110, so a $5 bet returns $9.54.
Our last bet is between Will Zalatoris and Jason Day. They will play together in the last group at 2:40. Both are playing well, and it should be a good battle. Will seems to be the favorite since he is the most consistent with rounds of 69-68-65. His third-round 65 was an excellent round. But Day shot 65 on the North Course on Thursday, and his 67 on Friday had a birdie-birdie-birdie finish while everyone else was struggling on the final holes in the wind and cold. I like that Day’s priced at +115, so looking for a return of $10.75. So with these three bets, we are looking to make up for the terrible day on Friday.


2nd round results, picks for 3rd round

It was an exciting 2nd round as many marquee names jumped up the leaderboard. One was expected as Jon Rahm shot a 65 on the North Course to tie for the lead at 13 under par with Justin Thomas, who shot 63 on the North Course. They were joined by Adam Schenk, who shot 62. The three will be playing together on Saturday, going off at 2:40.
Cameron Tringale shot 65 on the North Course and at -12 is 5th. One marquee name we haven’t heard much from is Jason Day, who has been hurt for years now. He also shot 65 on the North Course and at 9 under is four back of the leaders. First-round leader Billy Horschel fell back to reality playing the tougher South Course, shooting 73, ten worst than his 63 on the North Course. Horschel is at 8 under, five back of the leaders.
A couple of marquee names won’t be around for the weekend. Many liked that Rickie Fowler shot 66 on Thursday, but the South Course sent him for a loop as he shot 76 and at 2 under missed the cut. Also missing the cut was Bryson DeChameau who shot the same 66-76. Some other surprising players not making the cut is Sam Burns who shot 67-76. Same with last week’s runner-up Tom Hoge who shot 69-74. Another surprise was Tony Finau, who last year was runner-up but this year won’t be around after shooting 67-77. Two other big names not around for the final two rounds is Brooks Koepka, who shot 70-74, and Jordan Spieth who shot 70-78.

In looking at our 2nd round bets we won two and lost one. In our first bet, Joaquin Niemann shot 68 to beat Dustin Johnson by a shot. That was a $12 winner off of our $5 bet.
In the second matchup, Cameron Tringale shot 65 to beat Will Zalatoris by three shots. Of our $5 bet, we won $10.25.
Our third bet, which really disappointed me saw Jordan Spieth shoot 78 and lose to Bryson DeChambeau who shot 72. So the good news is we won $22.25, a profit of $7.25

So let’s make some bets for the third round

Draftkings is giving us nine matchups for Friday’s play and frankly, in looking at them, I don’t see many “Sure Bets.” All of the matchups come from the threesomes as some of our matchups will be playing in the same group. The players I like, the odds make no sense. Example is the 1:00 matchup between Marc Leishman Vs Patrick Reed. Both played great on Thursday on the North Course, Reed shooting 66 and Leishman 67. I kind of like Leishman but he is priced at -135 which is dear, so I am passing on this.
Our first bet is in the 1:20 Matchup between Justin Rose and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. I like how consistent Bezuidenhout has been and even though the price is not that great at +100, will take that at $5 for a $10 return.
Our second bet is in the Billy Horschel Vs. Joaquin Niemann, Now they are not playing together, Horschel goes off at 11:00 while Niemann goes off at 10:40. I don’t like the way Horschel played on Thursday shooting 73 and I feel he will struggle on Friday. On the other hand, Niemann has been more consistent shooting 69-68 so with Joaquin priced at -110 we are placing $5 on him looking for the $9.54 return.
Our third bet is between Jason Day Vs Ryan Palmer who is playing together in the 2:10 matchup. I like Jason Day, but I think that Ryan Palmer has been more consistent and with him priced at -110 a $5 bet could return $9.54

So disappointed that we couldn’t find any better odds but that happens sometimes as we have to be careful in trying to weed the good bets from the bad bets.
What do you folks think are some “Sure Bets” for the third round?
We are looking for great things on Friday, will be back sometime before midnight Tomorrow.


1st round results, picks for 2nd round

Ok, we are off and running. Of our three bets, we won one and lost two. In our first bet, Dustin Johnson had a much better first day than I thought when he shot 68 on the South Course at Torrey Pines. Unfortunately, Johnson beat Joaquin Niemann by a shot as Niemann had a bogey-free round with just three birdies. Frankly, I was worried off the bat because you could see that the threesome of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Dustin were looking for some bragging rights. Rahm shot 66 including an eagle on the 18th hole while Thomas shot 68.
Our second bet was also a loser as Daniel Berger shot 67 to beat Brooks Koepka by three shots. This was a match that I knew early that I was going to lose as Berger made eagle on his first hole and played his front nine in 32 shots, four better than Koepka’s 36.
So it was down to our last matchup and Jon Rahm played like we thought to shoot 66 to beat Thomas by two shots, again thanks to Rahm’s eagle on 18. So we won $8.70 but were a $6.30 loser for the day.

So let’s make some bets for the second round
Have to fire back with three winners. Have been in a 1-2 rot for a bit, time to break out of it. Would really like to take Jon Rahm again against Justin Thomas, but Rahm is priced at -140 so we will pass on that.
But for our first bet, we are revisiting our matchup between Dustin Johnson Vs. Joaquin Niemann. Johnson was supreme on Wednesday, he was great from tee to green, leading the Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green category. He hit 18 greens which are really good for the South Course but then struggled with the putter ranking T-85th in putts per GIR. Niemann held his own, he wasn’t close to Johnson in tee to green, hitting 12 of 18 greens. Niemann did putt a bit better than Johnson and on the North Course, you can make a lot of birdies if you’re putting well. I am betting that Niemann will do that. Like that Niemann is priced at +140 so with a $5 bet looking for a $12 return.
Our second matchup is between Will Zalatoris, who shot 69 on the South Course Vs Cameron Tringale who shot 67 on the South Course. I like the prospect that Tringale going off the first tee on the North Course at 12:40 while Will is off the 10th tee at 1:10. Tringale is priced at +105 so with a $5 bet the return is $10.25.
Our last bet is one that I think will be a great matchup, Jordan Spieth Vs Bryson DeChambeau. They are playing together on the 1st tee on the South Course at 1:40. In the first round, both shot 70 on the easy North Course and were both put on the back burner as their playing partner Rickie Fowler did laps on both of them by shooting a 66. Both Spieth and DeChambeau have not played well in this event, but I feel that Spieth will beat DeChambeau. Also, like that Spieth is priced at +110 so with a $5 bet the return is $10.50.

What do you folks think are some “Sure Bets” for the second-round play.
So we are looking for great things in the second round, will be back sometime before midnight on Thursday.


Welcome to our “Sure Bets” for the Farmers Insurance

So welcome back to the Farmers Insurance edition of “Sure Bets.”

Have to say it will be very nice not to have to work on Sunday, but these early starts are killers on us all. We are so well trained on what to do in preparing for a Thursday start to a tournament, just going a day early is hard. So it’s an adventure for us all so let’s cut straight to our bets for this week.

First of all, we have to choose someone for the week. Of course, would love to take Jon Rahm but the price is too much. We really would like a winner so I have two top-20 picks for this week.
The first one is Francesco Molinari at +330. He played great last week in Palm Springs and played well last year in the Farmers finishing T-10th. So with my $5 bet looking for a $21.50 return. Another player going for the same +330 odds is Brandt Snedeker. His record has been good at Torrey, winning twice and finishing 8 times in the top-ten in 15 starts. So those are my long-range bets.

Have to be very careful in looking for Wednesday matchups. Since they are playing in threesomes, off of two tees and on two different courses, we have to make sure at what time they are teeing off and who may have an advantage. The one bet that catches my eye is the matchup between Dustin Johnson Vs. Joaquin Niemann. Both are off the 1st tee on the South Course with Niemann going off at 12:20 and Johnson going off at 1:40. Going off early has a bit of advantage, a lack of wind later in the round. Both players don’t have great records at Torrey but I like that we can get +130 with Joaquin so with a $5 bet we are looking for a $5 return.
Our second bet is one that really caught my eye. DraftKings Sportsbook has a match-up between Daniel Berger Vs Brooks Koepka. I spotted that because my buddy the Fish tells me he is taking Daniel Berger in our big pick your pro contest and I just can’t figure it out. I know that Berger finished T-7th last summer during the U.S. Open, but in the Farmers he has been dismal, missing three out of four cuts. So when I saw that I can get Koepka at +125 against Berger have to say I like those odds. Now making it even better in looking at our GOLFIQ Stats, Koepka has Berger beaten on all offensive stats like making birdies and par breakers. They are playing together on the North Course at 12:30 so on an easy course I will take Koepka anytime over Berger. So looking for an $11.25 return.
Another match I like is Jordan Spieth VS Bryson DeChambeau, Both are playing the North Course and I was about to go hog wild for Spieth until I realized he struggles at Torrey Pines as much as DeChambeau does. So I am going with the marquee matchup, Jon Rahm VS Justin Thomas. The two of them are playing together along with Dustin Johnson on the South Course on the first tee at 1:40. We all know how good Rahm’s record is at Torrey, while Thomas struggles not only with the course but with the Poa Annua greens.
The price on Rahm is high at -135 but with a $5 bet looking for an $8.70 return in a matchup I say Rahm wins 8 out of 10 times.

What do you folks think are some “Sure Bets” for Wednesday play.
So we are looking for a great start a day early, will be back sometime before midnight on Wednesday.

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