BlogFarmers Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The most important item of the week:

BE AWARE due to not wanting to play on Sunday and be up against the NFL, this year’s Farmers will start on WEDNESDAY and end on Saturday.  So all bets have to be made a day early.

Hudson Swafford and Tom Hoge – The poster children for why fantasy golf is so hard:

So how many of you had Hudson Swafford winning the American Express and Tom Hoge coming in 2nd?  As for Swafford, it was his third PGA Tour win, his first came in this event in 2017.  But in between that Swafford struggled to finish 156 in the FedEx standings in 2018, 162 in 2019, and 167 in 2020.  He enjoyed his best season to date in 2021 when he won the September playing of Corales Puntacana, six months later in the March playing of Corales Puntacana Swafford finished T-6th and he was T-2nd at the Paletto Championship.  Still, he had his share of struggling, in between his win and finishing T-2nd at Palmetto in 19 events he only made six cuts.  Still, with that, he finished 36th on the FedExCup rankings, so the thought was that maybe he turned the corner and become a regular earner on the PGA Tour.  That never seemed to happen as he missed his first two cuts in 2022 at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms.  Going into the Amex his best finish was T-32nd and he was 123 in the FedExCup rankings.

After starting with a 70, Swafford reeled off rounds of 65-66-64 to win.  Still, we could easily say that he was a past winner of this event and maybe that was a sign, but that isn’t the case.  As Swafford said afterward a combination of loving the courses of the American Express has a lot to do with him playing well.  Kind of strange when you consider in 8 previous starts other than the win in ’17 his best finish was T-25th.  But the bigger key is in the grass.  All three Amex courses are played in Bermuda, the grass he learned to play golf.  Now you can see Swafford’s record on grasses if you look at his record on our GolfIQ page, go to the Player Guide, and chose Swafford at this link

Scroll down to Career Performance per grass type and you can see his best play is on Bermuda and Paspalum (another strain of Bermuda) grasses.  Yes look closely, his three wins are on Bermuda/Paspalum and of his 13 top-ten, 10 of them have come on Bermuda/Paspalum.  Would this help you pick Swafford?  Probably not, but I knew it and had Swafford as part of my long list of favorites.

As for Tom Hoge, he has been a member of the PGA Tour since 2015.  Hoge has seen a lot of action playing in 201 events but still hasn’t won on Tour. His closest brush with victory came in the 2018 Sony Open when he went to the 70th hole with a one-shot lead. With no wind, the last three holes at Waialae are easy, and the chances are better of making birdies, not bogeys. After a perfect drive at 16, Hoge had just 156 yards left to the green and hit a terrible 9-iron left into a greenside bunker. After that, things went terribly wrong as he barely got his third shot out of the bunker, and after a poor chip shot 11 feet past the hole, he missed that putt and made double bogey. Hoge couldn’t make a birdie on 17 and 18 and missed getting into a playoff by a shot. After that, Hoge finished 2nd at the 2020 Greenbrier, but he was six shots back of the winner Joaquin Niemann. Last year at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, Hoge shot a final round 69 to finish three back of winner Viktor Hovland who shot 65.

The point on Hoge is this is what makes fantasy golf so tough, each week seems to be a new Tom Hoge.

So is there any rhyme or reason between the fall portion of the PGA Tour and the rest of the year?  The advent of the wrap-around schedule started in the fall of 2013 when seven events were played in the 2014 season.  As you can see in this chart below, doing well in the fall didn’t carry over to the rest of the year, until recently.

2013-14 season

Jimmy Walker led the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 7th in final 2013-14 FedEx Cup standings

Harris English was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 32nd in final 2013-14 FedEx Cup standings

2014-15 season

Robert Streb led the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 18th in final 2014-15 FedEx Cup standings

Sangmoon Bae was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 26th in final 2014-15 FedEx Cup standings

2015-16 season

Kevin Kisner led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 23rd in final 2015-16 FedEx Cup standings

Russell Knox was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 10th in final 2015-16 FedEx Cup standings

2016-17 season

Hideki Matsuyama led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 8th in final 2016-17 FedEx Cup standings

Justin Thomas was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Won the final 2016-17 FedEx Cup standings

2017-18 season

Patton Kizzire led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 30th in final 2017-18 FedEx Cup standings

Pat Perez was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 39th in 2017-18 FedEx Cup standings

2018-19 season

Charles Howell III led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 28th in final 2018-19 FedEx Cup standings

Xander Schauffele was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 125th in 2018-19 FedEx Cup standings

2019-20 season

Brendon Todd led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 20th in final 2019-20 FedEx Cup standings

Sebastian Munoz was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – Finished 8th in 2019-20 FedEx Cup standings

2020-21 season

Dustin Johnson led the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 8th in final 2020-21 FedEx Cup standings

Bryson DeChambeau was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the Mayakoba – Finished 7th in 2020-21 FedEx Cup standings

2021-22 season

Talor Gooch led the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – He is 2nd in the rankings after the American Express

Sam Burns was 2nd in the FedExCup rankings after the RSM Classic – He is 4th in the rankings after the American Express

What’s up with Dustin Johnson?

The last we saw of Johnson was after shooting 67-67 on the weekend at the CJ Cup to finish T-45th.  2021 wasn’t that great for Johnson, sure he is credited with winning the Masters that was played in November of 2020, but historically this will be the 2020 Masters, not a part of the 2020-21 season.  After winning the Masters, Johnson won the Saudi International in January and was T-8th at the Genesis Invitational, but after that wasn’t in the running down the stretch until the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in which he finished T-10th with a final round 70.  Johnson missed the cut in the April Masters and the PGA Championship.  In looking at his stats for 2021 he showed a drop in off-the-tee, Approach the Green, and Tee-to-Green.  He was T-79th in Greens in Regulation, a drop after finishing 40th in 2020.  He did show a slight improvement in putting stats and we just have to wonder what the deal was?  He wasn’t hurt and he seemed healthy in each of his starts.  So what was the deal?  Could age be a factor?  At 37 you would think he is in his prime, gosh Phil Mickelson didn’t win his first major until he was 33 and won five more after that.  Johnson lives a dream life, he can do whatever he wants.  If he and his fiance Paulina Gretzky want to go skiing, they can order the jet and fly off with close friends to Aspen, as they did for Christmas.  The point is, Johnson can do whatever he wants and go wherever he wants to go.  So could there be a lack of interest in playing golf?  That is a fair question when you consider that he has been a full-time member of the PGA Tour since 2008.  Under PGA Tour guidelines, Johnson is credited with a win every year between 2008 and 2021.  Maybe after all these years of playing golf, he is tired and isn’t working as hard on his game.  In a way, I doubt that Johnson always seems motivated, and just like Tiger gives 110% every time he tees it up.  So we get Johnson this week and we will see how things are going, will 2022 be a great season?  Will it be tolerable for him, which means he wins at least once?  Or will he struggle with the game?  I feel it will be someplace between great and tolerable.  Just like anything else, Johnson has to get on a roll and if that happens he could be hard to beat.  Still, as each year goes by, father time does make it harder to play at the level that Johnson has played in his career.  Guess we just have to wait and see what happens.

So who are the players we are watching for this week?

The list is easy, of course at the top of the list is Jon Rahm.  He has done great at Torrey Pines, the location has a lot of great memories for him.  He remembers the first time he came to Torrey, his girlfriend at the time Kelley drove him as he tried to qualify to play at Torrey in 2016.  Kelley knew nothing about golf and was Jon’s caddy, they missed out by a shot and drove back to Arizona after that.  The following year Rahm not only got into the tournament but won it.  A year after that Rahm proposed to Kelley and the couple loves to come back to the Del Mar area just to hang out.  So it was only fitting that Rahm would win his first major last year at Torrey Pines.  So of course the whole golfing world will be watching Jon this week.

Another person that will be a favorite this week is Xander Schauffele.  He grew up and went to school a few miles from Torrey and has played the course a lot.  He was always thought to be a favorite, but between 2016 and 2020 he missed the cut four out of the five years and was T-25th in 2019.  So many just thought that maybe this wasn’t a course for him.  Last year Schauffele dismissed the thought he couldn’t play well at Torrey by telling the story of how for some odd reason he was always sick with the flu or something during Farmers Insurance week.  Last year Xander did everything he could not to get sick before the Farmers and sure enough, when he played four rounds with him feeling good, it was no surprise he was T-2nd.  The same six months later when the U.S. Open was held at Torrey he finished T-7th and was in the running til the final holes.  Feel that Schauffele has what it takes to win.

Same with Tony Finau, who was runner-up last year and in seven starts has four finishes of sixth or better.

Brandt Snedeker has had a lot of success at Torrey Pines, winning in 2021 and 2016.  After finishing T-9th in 2017 he has been up and down, in 2020 was a good year as he finished T-3rd.  Snedeker’s game looks ready to peak as he was T-36th at Sony and T-14th last week in the Amex.

Defending champion Patrick Reed is always a good choice.  On top of his win, he was T-6th in 2020 and T-13th in 2019 so can’t count him out.

Justin Rose has been trying to fight his way back onto golf and he comes to Torrey on a bit of a hot streak finishing T-33rd at the American Express, T-9th at the Hero, and T-12th at the RSM.  Rose won at Torrey in 2019 and could easily do well.

Also, watch Francesco Molinari, he was T-6th at the American Express and Torrey is perfect for his game which has had some moments at Torrey including last year when he finished T-10th.

A couple of longshots that you should watch, how about Jason Day?  He has suffered numerous injury problems and is in this field for this week.  He won at Torrey in 2018, has five top-tens, and looks like a good underdog.

Also like Marc Leishman, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, and Ryan Palmer have some real longshots.  Also can’t forget Hideki Matsuyama and Talor Gooch two of the best in the young 2021/22 season.

Two players I don’t like, one is Justin Thomas who sees lost mentally and Bryson DeChambeau who has really been on a low for over four months now.

Who else should we be looking at?

 First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Course information:

• Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California
• South Course (Home Course) – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,765
• North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,258

Last year the South course was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.34 average.  The North Course was the 44th hardest course, playing to an average of 70.13.

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957.  In the 80s, both courses were revamped with all new greens with the work done by the city.

The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957, with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra, and a local pro, Don Gillett, the first to play it.  Five months later, the North Course opened.  Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.

The two courses were Leo Calland’s brainchild, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course.  When he got permission, Bell came in and covered over the blacktop and could use the excess concrete to roll fairways on a flat site.  The lure of both courses after they opened was the views of the ocean on every hole.  Both courses sit atop of bluffs overlooking the Pacific. These views were seen a couple of years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of their matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead, and Doug Sanders.

A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home.  Since the tournament was first played in 1952, it never really found a home.  It was played on several different courses, but in 1968 it would embark on a significant change.  It decided to copy several west coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams, who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show.  They also needed financial support and asked for the city to use Torrey Pines free of charge.  It was a match made in heaven.  The course proved very popular not only with the pros but the TV audience that watched it.

Since then, Torrey Pines has been the home of the tournament, although every year, rumblings were heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.

After the 2001 Buick, the South course went through an extensive revamping process.  With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones, adding a lot of length to the course.  With the changes, the course could stretch to 7,700 yards, although the PGA Tour played it below that figure.  Though Jones didn’t change the course’s routing, he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes, moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes.  With all the changes, it brought some bite back to a course which 50 years ago was considered very difficult by the touring professionals.  Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years, and the winning score in 2002 of 275 was along with two other years the highest winning score in 20 years.  The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media, and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines, and that was such a big success that in 2021 the USGA would return the Open to Torrey.

To get ready for the 2021 U.S. Open, course architect Rees Jones returned after the 2019 event to get the course prepared by making numerous subtle changes.  $14 million was spent to renovate and strengthen the course by installing a new irrigation system.  They also resed every tee, redid every bunker, and redid the areas around all 18 greens without doing anything to the greens. The most striking alterations come on the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make it harder to drive in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.  So the changes will add more of a premium on accurate driving, but another thing the changes did was add another 67 yards to the course, making it play to 7,765, which is not only the longest course on tour but the first course to venture over the 7,700-yard mark.  As one pro Beau Hossler said to Tod Leonard of the San Diego Tribune:

“They’re kind of seemingly taking away the easy holes and turning them into moderate holes.  So, basically, there are no easy holes out here when you play it all the way back.”  So it will be interesting to see how much harder the course will play, of course, if the weather is perfect like predicted, scores will be low, and we may never know until either next year’s Farmers or when the U.S. Open is played on the course.

The North Course was redone in 2016 and proved to be about a shot and a half easier than the South.  Still, in many people’s minds, the North is more scenic and more fun to play..

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the South Course at Torrey Pines:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from 2022.
The event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one round data from the North Course.
The scoring average of the Torrey South Course field in 2021 was 73.34, and it was the 4th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the scoring average was 72.53, and it was the 7th hardest course on tour. In 2019 was 71.73, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. That is the first time that the South Course played under par since 2001 when it played to an average of 71.82. Days after that event, bulldozers came in, and the course was completely renovated for the 2008 U.S. Open by Rees Jones. So why did the course play so easily in 2019? The weather couldn’t be better, warm all four days with wind under 10 mph each day. With that, Justin Rose shot 21 under par, the lowest winning score since Tiger Woods shot 22 under in 1999. Of course, the wind is always a factor, in 2018, with low temperatures the first three days and winds gusting up to 25 mph, the scoring average was 72.81, the 8th hardest course for the year. In 2017 it was windy each day, and the average was 72.77, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016 when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. That year, they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, which is why the change happened. 72.947 has been the South Course average since 2016, but the overall tournament average has been 72.187. That’s because one round is played on the North Course, which has been a layup in past years, but the course had some changes done to it. Last year the North Course played to a 70.13 average, making it the 44th hardest course on tour. In 2020 the North Course played to a 70.57 average, while in 2019, it played to a 69.84 average, which was down because of the excellent weather conditions. Yes, the course was changed in 2016, which has made it a shot tougher, but the course has historically been about two shots easier.
Our course key is based on the South Course, which underwent another renovation before the 2020 event to prepare for the 2021 U.S. Open. There have been numerous subtle changes on the South Course, but the most striking alterations were made to the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make it harder to drive in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.
Still, with the course lying on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, mother nature always plays its part with possible fog this time of year, rain, and wind. For this year, temperatures will be mild in the high-60s each day, with no rain or fog, and winds will blow each day at around 8 mph, very gentle.

In looking at the stats for Torrey South last year, driving is essential. Last year it ranked 25th on the PGA Tour in driving distance but 7th in driving accuracy. This stat has always been important, it also ranked 1st in 2019 and ’18, and since 2014 it hasn’t ranked over 9th inaccuracy. So do you have to drive it straight to play well on the South Course? Not really, in looking at all the champions of the Farmers going back to 1997, only four were in the top ten in driving accuracy. Phil Mickelson was T-7th in 2000, Ben Crane was T-8th in 2010, Justin Rose was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Reed was T-9th in 2021. But in looking at the driving distance, it’s a different story. Of the 23 winners since 1999, 13 of them were in the top-11 as last year’s winner Patrick Reed was T-52nd, but 2019 winner Justin Rose was 11th and 2018 winner Jason Day was 2nd. So driving is essential, the combination of hitting it far and straight.
Another vital stat is proximity to the hole, both for those that hit the fairway. Last year the field hit an average of 37 feet, 11 inches to the hole, making it the 20th hardest on tour. As for rough proximity, the course was 8th hardest last year, with the field hitting it an average of 48′ 8 inches. So with hitting into the fairway and hitting it far, our second important stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. Last year’s winner Patrick Reed was 39th while 2020 winner Marc Leishman was 5th, the same as 2019 winner Justin Rose. But the difference, Leishman was T-14th in greens hit while Rose was 2nd.
Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. In 2020 and ’21 it ranked 2nd hardest as it’s always in the top ten. As a matter of fact, the greens were the hardest to putt in 2017 and 2016. Several factors have made Torrey Pines the most challenging greens to make putts inside 10 feet over the years. The main reason this stat is so extreme is that the greens are Poa Annua, and since it’s close to the ocean, the greens are hard to judge and tend to get bumpy, especially late in the afternoon. Last year Reed was 7th, making 47 of 52 attempts inside ten feet. The year before, Leishman was 28th making 44 of 51 attempts inside ten feet. In 2019, Justin Rose was T-39th in that stat, completing 46 of 53 putts. But in 2018, Jason Day shined in this stat, ranking 1st in the field making 49 of 51 tries for the week.
Our last category is scrambling manly because of its history, in which lots of greens are missed, and Torrey is adamant about getting it up and down. Last year it ranked 5th hardest, and in 2020 it was the 4th hardest. But in previous years, it was the 15th hardest in 2019, in 2018 it was 19th, but in 2017 it was the 5th hardest, the year before it was 2nd and over the previous six years, the course had been in the top-ten in this stat every year. As for winner Patrick Reed, he was 6th in this stat on the 28 greens he missed he got up and down 20 times.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you have to hit the driver off of most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat before 2018 it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top-ten on tour between 2011 and 2017. But in 2018 it ranked 19th, in 2019 it was 15th, in 2020 it was 4th while in 2021 it ranked 5th hardest on tour.

144 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to see all of the players with stats at the Farmers.

Of the 156 in the field, 145 have played at least once in the Farmers.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the Farmers since 2010:

• Brandt Snedeker is 77 under in 46 rounds playing 12 years
• Marc Leishman is 71 under in 44 rounds playing 12 years
• Jon Rahm is 51 under in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Justin Rose is 51 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Tony Finau is 47 under in 28 rounds playing 7 years
• Jason Day is 47 under in 32 rounds playing 10 years
• Keegan Bradley is 44 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Ryan Palmer is 35 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Patrick Reed is 33 under in 23 rounds playing 6 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 32 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Bill Haas is 31 under in 42 rounds playing 11 years
• Gary Woodland is 28 under in 41 rounds playing 11 years
• Phil Mickelson is 26 under in 34 rounds playing 11 years
• Jhonattan Vegas is 23 under in 36 rounds playing 11 years
• Rickie Fowler is 23 under in 38 rounds playing 12 years
• Jonas Blixt is 20 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Talor Gooch is 19 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Pat Perez is 18 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Scott Stallings is 18 under in 30 rounds playing 10 years
• Jimmy Walker is 17 under in 38 rounds playing 12 years
• Luke List is 17 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• Nick Watney is 16 under in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Dustin Johnson is 15 under in 22 rounds playing 7 years
• C.T. Pan is 12 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Alex Noren is 12 under in 10 rounds playing 3 years
• John Huh is 12 under in 37 rounds playing 10 years
• Rory Sabbatini is 11 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Sungjae Im is 11 under in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Sam Burns is 11 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Jon Rahm is 51 under playing 5 years (-10.20)
• Ryan Palmer is 35 under playing 5 years (-7.00)
• Tony Finau is 47 under playing 7 years (-6.71)
• Brandt Snedeker is 77 under playing 12 years (-6.42)
• Marc Leishman is 71 under playing 12 years (-5.92)
• Justin Rose is 51 under playing 9 years (-5.67)
• Patrick Reed is 33 under playing 6 years (-5.50)
• Talor Gooch is 19 under playing 4 years (-4.75)
• Jason Day is 47 under playing 10 years (-4.70)
• Keegan Bradley is 44 under playing 10 years (-4.40)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 32 under playing 8 years (-4.00)
• Alex Noren is 12 under playing 3 years (-4.00)
• Will Zalatoris is 8 under playing 2 years (-4.00)
• Sungjae Im is 11 under playing 3 years (-3.67)
• Doug Ghim is 10 under playing 3 years (-3.33)
• Lanto Griffin is 10 under playing 3 years (-3.33)
• C.T. Pan is 12 under playing 4 years (-3.00)
• Harry Higgs is 6 under playing 2 years (-3.00)
• Bill Haas is 31 under playing 11 years (-2.82)
• Sam Burns is 11 under playing 4 years (-2.75)
• Joseph Bramlett is 8 under playing 3 years (-2.67)
• Gary Woodland is 28 under playing 11 years (-2.55)
• Jonas Blixt is 20 under playing 8 years (-2.50)
• Justin Thomas is 5 under playing 2 years (-2.50)
• Matthew NeSmith is 5 under playing 2 years (-2.50)
• Luke List is 17 under playing 7 years (-2.43)
• Phil Mickelson is 26 under playing 11 years (-2.36)
• Dustin Johnson is 15 under playing 7 years (-2.14)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Justin Thomas – $10,900
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,600
• Dustin Johnson – $10,300
• Xander Schauffele – $10,100
• Daniel Berger – $10,000
• Bryson DeChambeau – $9,900
• Sam Burns – $9,700
• Brooks Koepka – $9,600
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,500
• Jordan Spieth – $9,400
• Sungjae Im – $9,300
• Will Zalatoris – $9,200
• Tony Finau – $9,100
• Marc Leishman – $9,000

The folks at DraftKings have given us a lot of good choices this week.  First, you have Jon Rahm at $11,300.  Now this man owns this course, with his U.S. Open victory and his play at the Farmers. As you can see in five years he has a win, a 2nd a T-5th, a T-7th, and a T-29th as he is 51 under par for this event. So yes he is a God on this course.  Justin Thomas at $10,900 is a hard sell for me.  Yes playing ok based off his T-5th at Kapalua.  In this event, he hasn’t played much which makes me think that if a player hasn’t played in this event located in San Diego, California since 2015 doesn’t like the course.  Last year at the U.S. Open he finished T-19th so not very high on Thomas this year.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,600 is a mixed bag.  He finished T-3rd at the Farmers in 2019 and that is surprisingly his only top-ten.  He was T-26th at the U.S. Open, still, I probably won’t be picking him on my Draftkings card this week, but feel he can win.  Dustin Johnson at $10,300 is the same story, he doesn’t play regularly in this event and in nine starts only has one top-ten, a T-3rd back in 2011.  He also finished T-19th at the U.S. Open makes me think that the course really doesn’t suit his game so better back off on him.  Xander Schauffele at $10,100 is the same story, not much good play on this course, but as we explain a lot of the times that he played in the event, he was sick with the flu.  So yes Schauffele is a good pick for this week.  Daniel Berger at $10,000 is a big fat no for me.  Hard to think what Draftkings was thinking in drawing up his odds but in four Farmers starts he has missed three cuts.  Yes I know he was T-7th at the U.S. Open and was T-5th at Kapalua, still don’t like him for this week.  Bryson DeChambeau at $9,900 is also a very big no,  in two Farmers starts have missed the cut.  At the U.S. Open when he left the 10th green looked like a winner but played his next 8 holes in 8 over par and finished T-26th shooting 77.  His attitude has been downright terrible so we know he will struggle this week also.  Sam Burns at $9,700 is too much money for his play at Torrey, despite playing well in 2022.  His best finish at Torrey was T-18th last year, played in the last group with Patrick Reed but looked like a deer caught in headlights shooting 75 in the final round.  In the U.S. Open missed the cut last year.  Brooks Koepka – $9,600 is another of those problem children in picking him.  Despite not playing well in the Farmers, he was T-4th during the U.S. Open.  The problem with Koepka, don’t think he likes Poa Annua greens, I remember him missing a lot of putts at the U.S. Open.  Still, Koepka is talented enough to win on this course, just don’t think it’s going to happen or that he will play any good.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,500 is another hard player to pick, his record is not very good at Torrey with two missed cuts but he was T-7th at the U.S. Open.  One thing that is swaying me is what he did last week at the American Express.  He finished eagle, par, birdie, and with his 21-foot putt at the 18th hole at the Stadium Course, he made the cut on the number and had a great final round.  So maybe he is a guy to consider.  Jordan Spieth at $9,400 is a no, he struggles on this course and never has been in the top ten.  Sungjae Im at $9,300 is also a no, in three Farmers’ starts his best was T-32nd last year.  Will Zalatoris at $9,200 is a yes, he was T-7th last year and played well at the Amex last week.  Tony Finau at $9,100 has shown he can play well on this course and could win on it.  In his last five Farmers, starts were in the top-six four times including a T-2nd last year.  Despite his inconsistent play over the last six months, I can see him do well this week.  The same with Marc Leishman at $9,000, he has his moments to shine and that can happen this week.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Farmers Insurance on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Farmers’ starts.  One last thing, in all these years, each participant had to play three different golf courses, with four different amateurs, so the task was a lot harder:

• Jon Rahm made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,200.
• Tony Finau made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
• Talor Gooch made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.
• Jason Dufner made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Brandt Snedeker made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Bill Haas made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Gary Woodland made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• John Huh made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Marc Leishman made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Patrick Reed made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Kevin Tway made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Adam Hadwin made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Keegan Bradley made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Ryan Palmer made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Scott Piercy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Matt Jones made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Jonas Blixt made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• C.T. Pan made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Rory Sabbatini made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Sam Burns made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Trey Mullinax made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Cameron Tringale made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Nick Taylor made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Pat Perez made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Martin Laird made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Luke List made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Talor Gooch at $8,900 is worth the money even though he missed the cut at the American Express.  He was T-3rd in the Farmers in 2019 and feels he could go low this week.  Can’t forget Patrick Reed at $8,700, his record in his last three starts is very good and shows that he can play well on the course.  Watch Max Homa at $8,400, the price is right for a player that is coming into his own.  Feel he can win at Torrey, was T-18th last year but T-9th in 2020.  Ryan Palmer at $8,100 is a great choice in this format since he has played well the last four years at Torrey including a T-2nd in 2021 and ’18.  At worst he will make the cut and earn you some points.  Justin Rose at $7,900 is a mixed bag.  He won at Torrey in 2019 but missed the cut the next year.  He has played well enough of late to say the money is low for a player like Rose.  Have to watch Lanto Griffin at $7,700.  He was T-3rd last week in the Amex and at the Farmers was T-7th last year, missed the cut in 2020 and T-12th in 2018.  Luke List at $7,600 is a good low-cost player that has a lot of power and zap but was T-10th last year at the Farmers.  Also has played steady the last couple of months.  Got to watch and pick Francesco Molinari at $7,600.  He has worked hard on his game and comes to a course he can do some damage on.  Was T-13th at the U.S. Open last June plus he was T-10th at the Farmers in 2020.  Can’t go wrong in picking him.  Then we have Jason Day at $7,500.  We know about his problems with injuries, but he seemed healthy last week at the Amex.  Like his track record at Torrey Pines, won in 2018 and was in the top-ten five times.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Have to say the pickings are slim in the bargain bag.  The really good one is Brandt Snedeker at $7,400.  He has a very good record at the Farmers including 8 top-tens in 15 starts.  He has only missed two cuts in 15 starts so you will get a nice return from him.  Mito Pereira at $7,400 is playing for the first time at the Farmers, like how consistent he has been in 2022.  Sam Ryder at $6,400 can get you some points, plus he can make cuts which save you the problem of finding a reliable player at a good price.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open:

The key stat for the winner:

The South course can be stretched to over 7,750 yards but don’t look for that length although some tees will be back.  Driving will play an important role this week, fairways will be wet with very little run.  Look for those that do well in the total driving stat, the one that combines both distance and accuracy.  In the past couple of years, the course has prided itself with heavy U.S. Open rough which makes it tough to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway.  Last year the south course was 8th in rough proximity while in 2014 and ’15 the course was the hardest course on proximity to the hole and in 2016 it was 2nd.  Last year players in the rough averaged getting it 48 feet, 8 inches to the hole.  See the same happening this year, so it’s best to keep it in the fairway.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The course was revamped and toughened 20 years ago plus the renovation since the 2019 event so you know it has a “U.S. Open feel” to it.  In past years this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on as between 1992 and 2008 all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen in 1995.  Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011.  Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012, but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winner’s circle.  In 2015 Jason Day won, but it would be seven months later before he won his first major at the PGA Championship.  In 2019 Rose won and he is a major champion so you have to look at those that have won majors as players with an added edge.
• One record that got broken in 2017 was Jon Rahm winning.  It was Rahm’s first start in the Farmers and he had never won before on the PGA Tour so he killed two birds with one stone, a first-time PGA Tour winner and a Farmers rookie winner.  Now Rahm joined two others to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.  The last rookie PGA Tour winner was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake, who in his fifth Farmers start won on the PGA Tour for the first time.  He joined Greg Twiggs who in 1989 playing his second Farmers won his first PGA Tour victory so in the 67-year history of the Farmers there are three first-time PGA Tour winners at the Farmers.  But that leaves one record left to Rahm, kind of.  Rahm is the only player to win the Farmers on his first start unless you count the fact that Ted Kroll did the same thing in 1952.  The only thing, Kroll was playing in the first Farmers event so in a way you really can’t count that since it was the first one, so Rahm is the holder of one of the most unique records on the PGA Tour.
• Greens that will be classified as “bumpy” may play a role in determining the champion.  Now people who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen.  Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua has crept back into almost 99% of the greens.  With that, if it tends to get foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy.  Again, patience will be the key here.  There is a reason the greens are the hardest to putt on the PGA Tour and more putts from 3 to 6 feet are missed on it.
• Look at the list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event.  Look for the player who can get it up and down to win.  Last year it may of ranked 5th, in previous years it ranked 5th in 2017 while in 2016 it ranked 2nd in scrambling.  In 2015 it ranked 10th, and in 2014 it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top-ten eight of the last twelve years.
• One round is played on Torrey North, a course that this year will be 507 yards shorter than the South.  In 2016 it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course.  Last year it was two shots easier.  To win, the player needs to play great in his round on the North.  Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North Course, and except for six years, they have shot in the 60s with 22 of the 36 shooting 67 or under.  Last year Patrick Reed started his week by shooting 64 on the North Course.  In 2020 Marc Leishman shot 68 on the North Course in his first round.  In 2019 Justin Rose shot 63 on the North Course to begin the tournament.  In 2018 Jason Day shot 64 on the North Course while in 2017 Jon Rahm shot 69.  In 2016 Brandt Snedeker shot 70. In 2015 Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven-under on that course and 2 under on the South Course.  So look for the champion to go low on the North Course
• Before Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, and Brandt Snedeker won, this was a great bit of Farmer’s trivia.  Before Crane’s 2009 victory 15 of the previous winners had “California ties”  going a step further, 25 of 63 winners had either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California,  You may wonder why this stat is important?  Poa annua is a grass found mostly in California that gives those that play and know the grass a special advantage, so that’s why it’s important.
• The weather going to be chamber of commerce for San Diego, as it’s going to be ok must of the time with temperatures in the high 60s and just a bit of fresh air in winds that will be around 8 mph each day.