BlogDubai Desert Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This event has always been one of the richest on the European Tour ever since it was first played in 1989.  Dubai is known for its wealth. Its skyline is something out of a futuristic science fiction movie. You can buy just about anything known to humans, except for alcohol, which is scarce because of religious beliefs.  Over the last 30 years, this event has taken a bite on whatever west coast event is played on the PGA Tour, those that run Dubai would pay top dollar for the best players in the world.  But things have changed in the last seven years, Abu Dhabi and now Saudi Arabia has more money to spend, so it’s doing a better job of getting better fields.  But even next week with the Saudi International, it seems that Dubai isn’t at the same level in paying for star players.  The field this year is probably the best it’s had in a while.   As for American’s in the field, British Open winner Collin Morikawa is the best American player in the field.  Other marquee names in the field are Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garia, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, and last week’s winner Thomas Pieters.

Course Information 

• Played at the Emirates Golf Club
• Dubai, United Arab Emiraates – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,428

Emirates Golf Club hosted the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and held for women the Omega Dubai Moonlight Classic last October, won by Bronte Law.  It was the first all-grass championship golf course in the Middle East when it opened in 1988. The club is part of a 54 hole facility with the Faldo Course and the Creek Course, which held this tournament in 1999 and 2000.

The Emirates course was designed by Florida architect Karl Litten and lies amongst a plethora of sand dunes, on a site donated initially by Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Al Maktoum. The instructions were that the desert flora was maintained in its natural state. Within a year of opening, the newly christened Majlis hosted the inaugural Dubai Desert Classic in February 1989.  The Majlis course’s sprinklers keep the Bermuda grass growing, alongside the indigenous desert flora, giving a dramatic contrast. The lush fairways and large greens provide a formidable golf test, guaranteeing a magnificent finish on the 18th hole, a long dog-leg, which has seen as many inspirational finishes as watery disasters in its 20-year history.  Other course highlights include the par-three 7th and the grueling par four 8th.

There are five lakes dotted around the course, with water coming into play on seven holes.  There are only 41 bunkers on the course but something a bit unique, five greens with no bunkers guarding them.  There isn’t that much rough, but if you hit it off the fairway, you could find yourself in desert scrub, which is sometimes harder to hit out of than rough.  The course is always in great shape and, in a way, follows the same creed as Augusta National in which the staff works hard to maintain this course in a manner that many feel it’s always the best-manicured course on the European Tour.

Just like last week in Abu Dhabi, the key to playing the course is to have windless conditions.  If the Shamal winds hit the area by chance, it makes the course very tough, but this event has never suffered any weather problems.  In looking at the weather forecast, there is only a 4% percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 70s, but each day will be windy, with the weekend seeing winds up to 15 mph.

DraftKings Tips

Looking for some good picks at Abu Dhabi

*Of the 132 in the field, 111 have played at least once at Dubai.

Here are the players that have played in two or more Dubai’s and had the most under par totals since 2010:

• Lee Westwood is 88 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Stephen Gallacher is 87 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Henrik Stenson is 82 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 78 under in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Thorbjorn Olesen is 72 under in 32 rounds playing 9 years
• Bernd Wiesberger is 72 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Sergio Garcia is 71 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is 65 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 59 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Robert Rock is 50 under in 37 rounds playing 12 years
• Andy Sullivan is 45 under in 27 rounds playing 9 years
• Chris Wood is 43 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Paul Casey is 42 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Ian Poulter is 41 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Ross Fisher is 39 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Scott Jamieson is 36 under in 38 rounds playing 10 years
• Alexander Levy is 34 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Maximilian Kieffer is 34 under in 28 rounds playing 9 years
• Danny Willett is 34 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Thomas Pieters is 33 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Thomas Bjorn is 33 under in 28 rounds playing 11 years
• Dean Burmester is 31 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Wu Ashun is 31 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Nicolas Colsaerts is 31 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Alejandro Canizares is 30 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Lucas Herbert is 29 under in 12 rounds playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Paul Casey is 42 under playing 4 years (-10.5)
• Lucas Herbert is 29 under playing 3 years (-9.7)
• Tyrrell Hatton is 65 under playing 7 years (-9.3)
• Sergio Garcia is 71 under playing 8 years (-8.9)
• Adri Arnaus is 25 under playing 3 years (-8.3)
• Ian Poulter is 41 under playing 5 years (-8.2)
• Lee Westwood is 88 under playing 11 years (-8.0)
• Thorbjorn Olesen is 72 under playing 9 years (-8.0)
• Kalle Samooja is 24 under playing 3 years (-8.0)
• Dean Burmester is 31 under playing 4 years (-7.8)
• Stephen Gallacher is 87 under playing 12 years (-7.3)
• Henrik Stenson is 82 under playing 12 years (-6.8)
• Alexander Bjork is 27 under playing 4 years (-6.8)
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 78 under playing 12 years (-6.5)
• Bernd Wiesberger is 72 under playing 11 years (-6.5)
• Wu Ashun is 31 under playing 5 years (-6.2)
• Tommy Fleetwood is 59 under playing 10 years (-5.9)
• Jason Scrivener is 29 under playing 5 years (-5.8)
• Justin Harding is 17 under playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Andy Sullivan is 45 under playing 9 years (-5.0)
• Haotong Li is 24 under playing 5 years (-4.8)
• Thomas Pieters is 33 under playing 7 years (-4.7)
• Thomas Detry is 23 under playing 5 years (-4.6)
• Matt Wallace is 18 under playing 4 years (-4.5)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week looking at those making the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list, our guys, will make lots of points this week.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $10,900
• Collin Morikawa – $10,600
• Viktor Hovland – $10,300
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10.000
• Sergio Garcia – $9,700
• Thomas Pieters – $9,600
• Paul Casey – $9,500
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,400
• Shane Lowry – $9,300
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,100
• Erik Van Rooyen – $9,000

Hard choices to make because most of the top price players are marquee names and cost top dollars, and you have to go through the names to weed out who the top players are.  Last week in Abu Dhabi, Thomas Pieters, Viktor Hovland, and Ian Poulter finished high, but the rest of those over 9,000 points was a bust.  In the second rounds, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa had to struggle just to make the cut.  So marquee names really mean nothing anymore.  Rory McIlroy at $10,900 is a risk, yes he has won twice and has 8 top-tens in 11 starts.  But he hasn’t played in this event since 2018 and you have to worry about his inconsistencies.  We all have this sentimental bit over McIlroy, but the business of picking winners tells us that you can’t count on Rory.  But you will kill yourself if he plays well and wins.  Yes, you might as well toss a coin, heads I take him tails I don’t.  Wish I could tell you if he would contend on Sunday, can’t even do that.  Collin Morikawa at $10,600 is another case of not really knowing what to do.  Yes, he won in Dubai back in November, but that was two months ago on another course.  Morikawa finished T-68th in this event last year and didn’t play well in Abu Dhabi, so it’s best to pass on him too.  Viktor Hovland at $10,300 is another story, he played in this event in 2020 and finished T-23rd, but he is a totally different player today.  Based on how he is playing now, have to say he is a safe bet and will make a lot of birdies and eagles to get you a lot of points.  Tyrrell Hatton at $10.000 is a mixed bag, yes he hasn’t played well in this event in four years, but has the potential to do well, and based on his play of late, have to say he is a good bet.  Sergio Garcia at $9,700 is also a good bet on this course.  He won here in 2017 and has been pretty consistent.  He has played well in the last year so he is a person to think about.  Thomas Pieters at $9,600 is a no for me, he has played in this event seven times and never finished higher than T-23rd.  I know he won last week, but in the history of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai events, we have never seen a player do well back to back.  Paul Casey at $9,500 is a good choice, he has played well in both this event (he is defending champion) and won in Abu Dhabi back in 2007.  He comes from Singapore in which he finished T-16th and hasn’t played bad but not great.  I would say pass on him.  Bernd Wiesberger at $9,400 is a good choice, he was T-6th last year in Dubai and finished T-12th in Abu Dhabi.  Shane Lowry at $9,300 is a big question mark, his best finish in this event was T-11th in 2020. Still worried about his final round blow-up, shooting 77 on Sunday to go from in the running to finishing T-12th.  Adam Scott at $9,200 is not a great buy, he hasn’t played in Dubai since 2002 and did finish T-10th in Abu Dhabi, still, he just hasn’t given the event to say he is ready to win again.  Robert MacIntyre at $9,100 is another story, he was 3rd in Dubai last year and T-8th the year before.  He missed the cut last week in Abu Dhabi when he played in terrible conditions in the second round and shot 80.  Don’t see that happening this week.  Erik Van Rooyen at $9,000 is a no, yes he finished T-12th in Abu Dhabi but just hasn’t given us the confidence to spend this much on him.

The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to 2010 on player performance at the Dubai Classic to see who has made the most cuts.  Of course, these players have a reputation for making many cuts, and some of these players are priced low, which is helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Dubai starts.:

• Nino Bertasio made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Jason Scrivener made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Paul Casey made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Dean Burmester made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Alexander Bjork made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Lucas Herbert made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Kalle Samooja made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Adri Arnaus made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Justin Harding made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Matthias Schwab made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Scott Jamieson made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Sergio Garcia made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Tyrrell Hatton made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,000.
• Thomas Pieters made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Alejandro Canizares made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Lee Westwood made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Chris Wood made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Nicolas Colsaerts made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Ian Poulter made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Thomas Detry made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Mikko Korhonen made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Wu Ashun made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Thorbjorn Olesen made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Henrik Stenson made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Stephen Gallacher made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Alexander Levy made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Matt Wallace made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Shubhankar Sharma made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Joachim B. Hansen made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Kiradech Aphibarnrat made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

So we have to find a couple of good picks in the $7,500 to $8,900 range. 

I like Ian Poulter at $8,800.  He is not the type of player that wins a lot but has a way of getting a lot of top-tens and playing well.  He may have missed the cut at Dubai last year but did finish T-3rd in 2019 and T-6th in 2018.  Also, like that he played well in Abu Dhabi finishing T-6th.  Adri Arnaus at $8,700 is worth thinking about, he was T-9th in Dubai last year and T-3rd the year before.  He was T-20th in Abu Dhabi last week so worth the pick.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $8,400 is also a great pick, he won in Dubai in 2012 and played well last week finishing runner-up in Abu Dhabi.  The same with Shubhankar Sharma at $8,000 like that he was runner-up in Abu Dhabi last week.  Hard to believe that Draftkings has priced Lucas Herbert at $7,800.  He is a past winner in this event and has played well the three times he has played at Emirates.  He has been hit and miss on the PGA Tour in 2022, but he did win in Bermuda.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Victor Dubuisson at $7,400 is a good bet, he finished T-4th last week in Abu Dhabi.  Justin Harding at $7,300 is also worth the money, was T-25th in Abu Dhabi and has been consistent in Dubai, making all three cuts with a best finish of T-7th in 2019.  Jason Scrivener at $7,200 is worth the price, he has made five of five cuts in Dubai including a T-7th in 2019 and a T-6th in 2018.  You also can’t go wrong with taking Nicolas Colsaerts at $6,300, yes he is not going to win or get you a top-ten, but his price is very cheap for a guy that has made 8 cuts in ten starts since 2010.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

What is the key stat that helps players win in Dubai?  It seems that hitting lots of greens is very important.  Of the last 12 winners going back to 2010, all of them were in the top-19 (except for 2018 winner Haotong Li was T-46th).  Last year and in 2020 both Paul Casey and Lucas Herbert ranked T-4th.  In  2019 Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd, hitting 58 of 72, in 2017, Sergio Garcia was first hitting 59. Rafael Cabrera-Bello in 2012 also led that stat hitting 61 the best of anyone.  Stephen Gallacher was 12th in both his wins in 2013 and 2014.  In 2015 Rory McIlroy hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th, so the winner must hit lots of greens.  The following year Danny Willett was the worst of the pack, hitting 56 of 72 greens to rank T-19th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The Dubai Desert Classic has been known as a tournament that produces low scores as the winner has had an average score of 16 under par.  In 2019 Bryson DeChambeau went low at 24 under, in 2018, Haotong Li went low at 23 under. In 2015 Rory McIlroy was 22 under, while in 2016, Danny Willett was 19 under the same score that 2017 champion Sergio Garcia had. But last year, Paul Casey was 17 under par while the year before Lucas Herbert won at 9 under. Again the winds played a factor, and the course was challenging, so anything could happen. Also, watch the winds, that has a lot to do with the scoring.
• You can’t call this course a long hitters paradise.  Yes, Alvaro Quiros won in 2011, averaging the best of those in the field and the same with Rory McIlroy in 2015.  In 2017 Garcia was T-2nd, but the other winners have been in the middle in hitting it long.  Also, hitting fairways is not very important, and only three winners in the last 12 years has been in the top-20 of this stat.  In 2015 Rory hit only 25 fairways and ranked T-65th, while in 2016, champion Danny Willett ranked 10th in driving distance, and he hit 31 fairways, which ranked T-38th.  In 2017 Sergio Garcia had the best driving week of any champion, hitting 39 fairways ranking T-2nd and driving it an average of 305 yards, which ranked 3rd.  In 2019 DeChambeau was T-18th in fairways hit and T-26th in driving distance, while in 2018, Li was T-14th in driving distance and T-43rd in fairways hit.  Last year Paul Casey ranked T-17th in driving accuracy and T-23rd in driving distance.  In 2020 Lucas Herbert was T-30th in driving accuracy, T-17th in driving distance, and T-4th, hitting 48 greens in regulation.
• Mastering the par 5s is the key, last year, Paul Casey played them in 13 under, while in 2020 Lucas Herbert played them in 8 under.  In 2019 DeChambeau played them the best at 14 under, in 2018, Haotong Li played them the best at 13 under.  2015 winner Rory McIlroy may have only been 10 under, while in 2009, McIlory played them in 12 under.  In 2016 Danny Willett was 12 under on the par 5s, while in 2017, Sergio was 9 under.
• The only way that a winner goes over par in any single round is because of the wind.  Henrik Stenson in 2007 shot all four rounds in the 60s, and it wasn’t until Sergio did it in 2017 and in 2018 Haotong Li was in the 60s all four rounds.   Only 3 champions (Alvaro Quiros 73, 1st rd in 2011, Tiger Woods 73, 3rd rd in 2008, and Jose Caceres 73, 4th round in 2000) have had a single round over par, and that was on a day of high winds.  In 2020, Lucas Herbert was very consistent with rounds of 69-71-71-68 to claim victory.  In 2021 Paul Casey was up and down, 67 in the first round, up to 70 in round two, back down to 64 in round three, and 70 in the final round.