BlogPebble Beach Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Tour season is just over a third of the way over, 13 events played, 34 left to play, we are seeing a different list of winners. First, there are only 3 first-time winners (Lucas Herbert, Talor Gooch, and Luke List), one multiple winner (Hideki Matsuyama), and seven of the 13 winners are in the top-25 of the World Rankings. All of this shows how good the fields are on the PGA Tour, that just about anyone who tees it up can win, and that players are in flex at all times.

Another thing that we are seeing that despite the middle east getting some marquee players, a lot more marquee players are teeing it up on the West Coast. An example of this is the last two weeks, the fields of the American Express and the Farmers were better than Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Now, this week Saudi International will dominate play. They could get 20 of the top-50 ranked players and three players from the top ten. Still, the AT&T has done well in getting ten of the top-50 in the world rankings. The good reason is that many players avoid playing at the AT&T. They don’t like having to play on three different courses or playing with amateurs, and sometimes the weather isn’t the best. It’s also too bad that the Saudi International could attract past AT&T winners Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson. In the case of Mickelson, he has only missed one AT&T In the last 25 years, 2015. The same with Dustin Johnson, who had played in 13 straight AT&T’s since he joined the PGA Tour in 2008, he didn’t play last year (because of the poor weather) and now is missing it for the second straight year

What we learned from last week:

That it took Luke List 206 PGA Tour starts before he won. Making this list even more critical, List was a top amateur player, and when he turned pro in 2007, many thought he would have a slew of wins. But with a total of 135 Korn Ferry starts, and if you add PGA Tour starts, that’s 341 events with just one PGA Tour win and two Korn Ferry victories.

We also learned that it would not take Will Zalatoris long to win on the PGA Tour. Even though Zalatoris had a PGA Tour card for 2022, he wasn’t an “official” member and could not play in the FedExCup playoffs. Still, Zalatoris was very productive. In 25 starts, he made 21 cuts and was in the top-ten eight times. Zalatoris had four realistic shots at winning. His best finish was 2nd at the Masters. Zalatoris hurt his back at the British Open, and we started wondering about him as he didn’t play well in the fall. But after taking two months off, he returned to the American Express and finished T-6th. So he had a perfect shot at winning the Farmers, but his Achilles heel has always been his putter, and that showed at Torrey Pines. Out of 79 players, Zalatoris was 64th in Strokes Gained Putting, only made 176 feet of putts which ranked 69th, and were T-53rd inputting inside ten feet, completing 51 of 60 putts. In his year stats, the same is true, he ranks 141st in Strokes Gained Putting and 110th inputting inside ten feet. So the reality for Will to win it’s going to be on courses that poor putters tend to thrive on. Also, look for Will to play well on courses that demand precision shotmaking and shots to the green. So look for Zalatoris to win on courses like TPC Southwind (site of first FedExCup playoff), Riviera (Genesis), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Colonial (Charles Schwab), and Innsbrook (Valspar). The big question for bettors, how will Zalatoris play this week? Despite all three courses being great shotmaker courses, I don’t think this week sets up very well for him. Sure he is in this good groove, but the greens are tough to put and may give him problems. Unfortunately, Will tested positive for COVID-19, so he had to withdraw from the AT&T. What that does for his schedule, and future events will have to be watched. I still like him at the Genesis in three weeks.

Another thing that Farmers showed us was that maybe both Jason Day and Justin Rose are back. For Rose, his poor play has been a combination of injury, getting older, and frankly not working as hard as he used to. I always thought he was an underachiever, only winning one major at the U.S. Open in 2013. Still to this day think his game is perfect, and even at age 41 can win at Augusta. Rose has been playing well of late, gosh his T-6th at the Framers last week could have been better, a foot or two on his second shot at 18 could have been in the playoff. It’s surprising to see Rose playing this week at Pebble, it’s only his third start at the AT&T, he was T-6th in 2016. Can he win this week? Yes. His game seems to be solid, he was 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 28th in Strokes Gained Putting. So anything can happen this week with him, I think he is suitable for another top ten.

Now Jason Day is maybe the big story of 2022. He wasn’t a player to take for the last four to five years. He had a host of persistent injuries, mostly with his back, but every time he played, you had to think that he was just a swing away from disaster. Two years ago, things looked so bad many thought he would need surgery. I used to shake my head when writers asked if anything could be done with his back, and he answered back, “rest.” So I am still surprised on his latest “comeback,” but it’s been a year in the making. Through lots of consultation with doctors and swing coach Chris Como, they have come up with some swing changes that match his body movement, which takes away any stress to the back and neck. He has been working for over a year on the changes, he has changed from a sling draw into a fade and is much smoother through the shot. Unfortunately, in the stretch in the final round, Day got caught up with the fear of the new swing and missing shots left. That is the reason for the fat tee shot on 16 and driveway right on 17th, both leading to bogeys. He brought out the new swing at the American Express and finished T-49th and sees a lot of positive items. If there is ever a week for him to peak, it’s this week. He has been in the top-seven eight times in 12 starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach, including top-sevens in his last five starts. To think that with all of his problems and a different swing, he finished T-5th in 2017, T-2nd in 2018, T-4th in 2019, 4th in 2020, and T-7th last year. Yes, there is no other event in golf that Jason has played so well. Hard to believe he has won 12 times on the PGA Tour without a win at Pebble, yes I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins this week.

Who else should we be looking at?

First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.  

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

One other player to watch has to be Patrick Cantlay, he was T-3rd last year and T-11th in 2020.  He has been great at Sentry and American Express and could have won but didn’t.

One player to short this week is Jordan Spieth.  I know how good his record at Pebble has been including a win in 2017 and T-3rd last year, but in his four starts in 2022 his game has been sloppy at best.  He looked terrible in his second round at Torrey, shooting a 78 and looked terribly lost.  Let’s see how he does this week before we place any money on him.

Nice to see the pro-am, fans, and three courses back

Last year was dismal, with no fans, no Bill Murray and the rest of the amateurs, and no Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula.  Last year it seemed like a regular golf tournament that nobody cared about.  This year will be different with people watching and cheering and amateurs like Bill Murray, Huey Lewis, Andy Garcia and for the first time Buffalo Quarterback Josh Allen is in the field.

How about the weather for the week?

For years the weather for the AT&T has had its share of terrible conditions.  in 2020 it was one of those perfect years of sunshine and temperatures in the mid-60s.  Last year saw mostly cloudy skies with rain on Saturday and windy conditions every day, it never got above 60.

This year is going to be spectacular, temperatures in the mid-60s, sunny skies all four days, and very light wind, the highest will be Saturday at 8 mph.  These will be the type of conditions that make us all jealous because of the scenery around Pebble and the Del Monte Forest is breathtaking, I dread watching it because I wish I was there, oh well.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

This and the American Express are the only events played on three different courses. Each player and team will play one round at Pebble Beach (which is the host course), Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula C.C. After Saturday the cut is made, and the final round is played at Pebble Beach.  The AT&T is two tournaments in one.  The field is paired with an amateur partner and played the first three rounds together.  After 54 holes a cut is made, approximately 25 low teams of the best amateurs/pros will make it to the final day at Pebble Beach.

This is the last of the big-time pro-celebrity events on the PGA Tour.  The American Express, which was the Bob Hope used to have a good field of celebrities, but now the only one left in this event.  The good news is that crowd favorite Bill Murray is in the field this year.  Other celebrities joining him Dodger great Mookie Betts, Don Cheadle, Michael Pena, Chris O’Donnell, Darius Rucker, and Steve Young.

For some, the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am is the greatest.  Played at one of the most speculator places in all the world, on three of the most celebrated courses in the world.  On top of that, the Monterey area offers a lot to do with great places to go like the Monterey aquarium, some great restaurants, and bars plus you can’t beat a walk around the village of Carmel after the tournament is over.

For others, playing with amateurs in foursomes with rounds sometimes going six hours, this isn’t their cup of tea.  Still, it’s a staple on the PGA Tour.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,972 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 74.4 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees Pebble Beach Golf Links is a resort and open to the public.
• Last year Pebble played to a 71.197 scoring average as conditions were good with not much wind.  It was the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  Now in 2021 Pebble played to a 72.52 scoring average and it was the 8th hardest course on tour.  The reason for it playing so hard was the high winds that were around all four days.
• The course was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919,  Revised in 1928 by Henry Chandler Egan.  Between then and 1997 there were few minor changes done to the course.  But in 1998 the biggest change happened when the par-three 5th hole was rebuilt.  The redesign was done by Jack Nicklaus, and the hole was relocated about 100 yards away, along with a 50-foot cliff over the Pacific.  At the cost of $3 million, the new hole could be one of the most expensive holes that hold a PGA Tour event.  It’s funny to compare the cost.  $3 million for one hole in 1999, the total cost to build the course in 1919 and that included the money spent on at the time was the first automatic sprinkling system in golf was a mere $66,000.
• The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.
• Despite the official name, the course is not a real links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline, and it’s these holes that distinguish Pebble Beach.
• The land was owned by Samuel Morse who was the nephew of the inventor of the telegraph and Morse code.  Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Peninsula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront for $1.3 million in 1915.  Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties company and had a vision of a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay.  Instead of selling the oceanfront property for homesites, Morse built his golf course.  One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville who won the California Amateur Championship, and although Neville had never produced a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design.  Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him on the project and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
• In 1918 the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition, the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision.  Neville and Grant softened it up, and in 1919 it was again open for play.
• Over the course of the next ten years, the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928 H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter, and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur.  Since then the course has remained the same, except for the redesign of the fifth hole, which is undoubtedly an endorsement of the sound design of Neville and Grant.
• Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay.  They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th.  The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf.  It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards.
• Pebble Beach has held many tournaments the U.S. Open (1972, ’82, ’92, 2000, 2010, and in 2019), the PGA Championship (1977),  five U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018), the 1989 Nabisco Championship and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am which at one time was the Bing Crosby.
• The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet that making the greens the smallest that are used on the PGA Tour.  The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.
• In prepping Pebble for the 2019 U.S. Open in 2015 the 17th green was modified and rebuilt, over the summer in 2016 the 14th green went through a severe change.  The green doesn’t have the drastic elevation change in the front, back right.  The bunker is still deep and tough, making the green a bit flatter and having more pin places.  In 2017 the 13th hole saw the green rebuilt to create a hole location on the right side of the green and a bunker was put into the left of the green.

Other courses used in the rota:

• Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 7,041 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 148 from the championship tees.  The course resorts and is open to the public.
• Last year Spyglass played to a 72.788 average and was the 11th hardest course on tour.
• The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966.  The course was built thanks to Samuel Morse who had initially thought of creating it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach.  The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club, but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill.  That was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson who got his inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.
• Spyglass is a mix of several different courses.  The first five holes go down through dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific.  The next couple of holes playback into the pines, still offering ocean views.  The last nine you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away, the holes play through Monterey pines.  Spyglass is a different course than Pebble.  While the greens at Pebble are small, those at Spyglass are large and undulating.  Weather is a big part of Pebble, while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass that is just a couple miles away could be calm.  When Spyglass first opened up it annually would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy and would be among the hardest courses on Tour.  It’s still one of the toughest courses on tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.
• The big advantage of playing Spyglass Hill is after the first six holes, the last 12 holes are protected from the wind which helps on windy days.
• Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,958 yards     Par 34-37–71
• The course has a 73.3 rating and slope rating of 133 from the championship tees.  The course is private.
• In 2021 because of COVID-19 the course wasn’t used.
• In 2014 the Shore Course was the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.252 average.  But in 2015, again in perfect weather, the course played to a 68.936 scoring average as only two other courses in 2015 played easier.  In 2016 the course got tough again and played to a 70.699 average making it the 25th toughest on tour.  In 2017 the par 71 course had a 71.26 average earning it the 19th hardest course on tour.  In 2018 the course had a 70.058 average and was the 38th hardest course on the PGA Tour. in 2019 the Shore Course played to a 70.65 average and was the 22nd hardest course on tour, in 2020 it played to a 69.69 average and was the 30th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• Monterey Peninsula Country Club was founded on January 19, 1925. Samuel Finley Brown Morse, president and general manager of the Del Monte Properties Company.  The club has two clubs; the Dunes Course was originally designed by Charles B. MacDonald and Seth Raynor in 1925. The Dunes Course was redesigned and rebuilt in 1998 by Rees Jones and was the site of the Bing Crosby Pro-am for 18 consecutive years beginning in 1947, and then shifted to the Shore Course in 1965 and 1966. In 1967, the tournament was moved to Spyglass Hill Golf Course. The Crosby later returned to MPCC in 1977.
• The Shore Course, site of this year’s AT&T was initially designed by Robert Baldock and Jack Neville. Construction began in 1960, and the course was opened for play in 1961. Reconstruction of the Shore Course started in February 2003, and the new course was opened in June 2004. Golf course architect Mike Strantz created a links-type golf course on the Club’s ocean-side property. For the AT&T, the course will play at par 71 and 6,958.
• Two things will come into play this week at the Shore course; one is how it won’t be protected from the elements of wind off the ocean.  The course it replaced, Poppy Hills was very well protected with big pines, but that won’t be the case here, so if you get unlucky and are paired on this course on a poor day, it could put you out of the tournament.  The second tough element will be the greens, they average 7,000, and Mike Strantz made them tough, and it will take much local knowledge to be able to read them.  Most of the pros in the field are making sure to play the Shore Course, and they all are saying the same thing; the greens will be tough this week.

DraftKings items

Of the 156 in the field, 123 have played at least once in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the AT&T since 2010:

• Jason Day is 106 under in 39 rounds playing 10 years
• Jordan Spieth is 93 under in 36 rounds playing 9 years
• Kevin Streelman is 84 under in 43 rounds playing 11 years
• Jimmy Walker is 64 under in 43 rounds playing 12 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 58 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Matt Jones is 56 under in 46 rounds playing 12 years
• Brian Gay is 44 under in 38 rounds playing 10 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 42 under in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Nick Taylor is 41 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Aaron Baddeley is 40 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Vaughn Taylor is 40 under in 39 rounds playing 11 years
• Chez Reavie is 39 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Nick Watney is 36 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Pat Perez is 34 under in 45 rounds playing 12 years
• Russell Knox is 34 under in 29 rounds playing 8 years
• Chris Kirk is 33 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Sean O’Hair is 32 under in 41 rounds playing 12 years
• Jonas Blixt is 30 under in 22 rounds playing 6 years
• Scott Stallings is 30 under in 25 rounds playing 7 years
• Maverick McNealy is 26 under in 11 rounds playing 3 years
• Cameron Tringale is 21 under in 37 rounds playing 10 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Jason Day is 106 under playing 10 years (-10.6)
• Jordan Spieth is 93 under playing 9 years (-10.3)
• Maverick McNealy is 26 under playing 3 years (-8.7)
• Patrick Cantlay is 42 under playing 5 years (-8.4)
• Justin Rose is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Matthew NeSmith is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Kevin Streelman is 84 under playing 11 years (-7.6)
• Brandon Harkins is 15 under playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Trey Mullinax is 18 under playing 3 years (-6.0)
• Nick Taylor is 41 under playing 7 years (-5.9)
• Jimmy Walker is 64 under playing 12 years (-5.3)
• Brandt Snedeker is 58 under playing 11 years (-5.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Patrick Cantlay – $11,200
• Daniel Berger – $10,500  Withdrew
• Jordan Spieth – $10,300
• Jason Day – $9,900
• Maverick McNealy – $9,800
• Justin Rose – $9,600
• Cameron Tringale – $9,500
• Seamus Power – $9,400
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,200
• Kevin Streelman – $9,100
• Kevin Kisner – $9,000

Have to say that this week will be very difficult to maneuver. Last week was a breeze, most of the players at the top were well worth the value that DraftKings gave them and the big problem was who to take at the top.  This week it’s the complete opposite, of those at the top of our list I can see a problem with most of these players.  At the top is Patrick Cantlay at $11,200, the good news pretty sure he will make the cut but his price is still higher than I want to pay.  Yes I know in his last two starts was 9th at the Amex and 4th at the Sentry TofC, plus he was T-3rd at Pebble last year.  Yes, he is the highest rank player in the field, but the cost is still high.  So he is a toss-up for me.  Daniel Berger at $10,500 is someone that many will pick.  He is the defending champion, was T-5th at Pebble in 2020, and T-10th in 2015.  On top of that Berger is hitting 81% of his fairways this year.  In the last month, he has finished T-7th at the Hero, T-5th at the Sentry TofC, and T-20th last week at the Farmers.  So with all of this, the answer should be a big yes but I am saying you don’t want to touch him.  In watching the ESPN coverage last week they showed a lot of Berger and for most of the tournament, he looked in terrible pain.  The announcers were shocked at how much pain he seemed with his back, but he still scored and played well.  So for me, this is someone you want no part of, but boy how can a guy play with terrible back pain, not withdraw and then play the following week?  It’s a big question for me but I am not touching Berger this week. Late Wednesday Berger withdrew.  Next up is Jordan Spieth at $10,300, again he should be a big fat yes based on how well he has played at Pebble.  He won the event in 2017, was T-3rd last week, and T-9th in 2020.  But I am a big no on Spieth, he looked terrible last week at the Farmers missing the cut.  I realize that Spieth never does well at Torrey, but he looked terrible at the Sentry TofC and Hero World so it’s best to watch him and see if he can regain some of the form he had in 2021.  As much of a mystery, it is for me saying no to Berger and Spieth, everyone will think I am crazy in backing Jason Day at $9,900.  We know he hasn’t won in four years and has been bestowed with back and neck problems for the last four years.  But this week is different, Day is playing well takes to a new swing which puts less strain on the back.  He has seemed to improve between his T-49th at the Amex and T-3rd last week at Torrey.  But the big reason you take Day this week is his record at the AT&T, it’s the best of anyone in the field.  Yes, he hasn’t won but was T-7th last year, 4th in 2020, T-4th in 2019, T-2nd in 2018, and T-5th in 2017.  Going back to 2013 in nine starts he has been out of the top-11 just once in 2014.  So yes he is the man to pick this week.  I also like Maverick McNealy at $9,800, he grew up on the 15th green/16th fairway at Pebble so he has played the course a lot in his life.  His record at Pebble shows why he can win, he was T-5th in 2020 and 2nd last year.  Making it even better he has played well this year, only problem one round would screw him up.  Think that he will be found and possibly get his first win this year.  Another good choice is Justin Rose at $9,600.  He has played well at Pebble and his game has come around, we saw his T-6th finish at Farmers last week.  Cameron Tringale at $9,500 and Seamus Power at $9,400 are good picks, despite Power never playing great in this event he has played well.  Tringale was T-7th last year and he also has shown some good signs.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,200 is a no, just not shown us he can play well enough.  Kevin Streelman at $9,100 is a maybe, he hasn’t played great this year but you never know based on his record at Pebble which has been good, was 13th last year, 2nd in 2020, T-7th in 2019, and 6th in 2018.  He is the type of player you have to watch.  Kevin Kisner at $9,000 is someone to watch, in 8 starts at Pebble he was T-10th in 2017 but his other starts were not that great.  But he was T-3rd at the Sony and T-8th at the Sentry TofC so that makes you wonder if his game is doing well this year.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 AT&T Pebble Beach on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Pebble Beach starts.  One last thing, in all these years, each participant had to play three different golf courses, with four different amateurs, so the task was a lot harder:

• Jason Day made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Jordan Spieth made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 10,300.
• Patrick Cantlay made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 11,200.
• Joel Dahmen made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Bronson Burgoon made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Trey Mullinax made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Kevin Streelman made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%. His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
• Brian Gay made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Matt Jones made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Sean O’Hair made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Seung-Yul Noh made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Pat Perez made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Lucas Glover made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Joseph Bramlett made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Brian Harman made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Aaron Baddeley made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Alex Cejka made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Scott Piercy made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Nick Taylor made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Cameron Tringale made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,500.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lanto Griffin at $8,800 is a player to think about.  He was T-9th the last time he played in the AT&T back in 2020, he was T-3rd at the Amex and at the Farmers finished T-30th but shot 65 in the final round.  We keep on talking about Mito Pereira who this week is $8,300, he has played ok on tour in 2022 and probably playing the best of the rookies this year.  After that, it gets really hard to find players.  Matt Jones at $8,000 and Michael Thompson at $7,900 have had top-tens at Pebble and been ok in 2022, but they aren’t guys I am rushing out to pick.  Aaron Rai is $7,900 and played well last week, but he has no record at Pebble.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

So who are our bargains for the week?  I will say this, there aren’t that many which means you better be careful in spending for the star players.  Also, it’s best to find someone that is cheap and excels at Pebble.  Someone like Joel Dahmen is $7,500 and made 4 of 4 cuts at Pebble.  Brian Gay is $6,400 and made 9 of 10 cuts at Pebble.  Sean O’Hair is $6,300 and made 10 of his last 12 starts.  Also, watch Pat Perez at $7,300, he almost won this event in 2002 (was 2nd) and again in 2015 (T-4th), he was T-6th last week at the Farmers.  Matthew NeSmith is $7,300 and has been ok in 2022, nothing spectacular but was T-16th at Pebble in 2021 and T-11th last year.  Charl Schwartzel at $7,100 finished T-5th in 2020 and how can we forget about Brandt Snedeker at $7,400 has won twice at Pebble, but be warned he has missed his last three cuts at Pebble and didn’t play that great missing the cut last week at the Farmers.  The point is, anything can and will happen this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

The key stat for the winner:

The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some special problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners.  Another problem is the luck of the draw; someone could be playing at Spyglass that is tree-lined on the last 12 holes and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some players encounter at Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula which are tree-less and could get clobbered by the wind.  For some that play in the late afternoon, the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict.  So it takes a particular breed of player to endure this.

The good news is the weather is supposed to be good, still if your on the ocean holes at Pebble you will still feel the winds and on the shore course of Monterey Peninsula, the winds always blow in off the ocean.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Except for Brett Ogle in 1993, Dustin Johnson in 2009, and Nick Taylor in 2020, those that have won at Pebble were veteran players.  The point here is don’t look for any inexperienced players winning here, in its history going back to 1950 only one pro has won on his first visit to Pebble, and that was Ogle.  In 2019 48-year-old Phil Mickelson won for the fifth time.  But on the other end of the spectrum Daniel Berger won last year at the age of 27, the previous year Nick Taylor won for the first time at 31 and has been around since 2008.  This is the type of player that will win this week.
• Now, this doesn’t rule out the fact that a rookie or a person with minimal experience could win. Look at D.A. Points in 2011; he missed three out of four cuts before winning.  Some could call this a flunk; I feel that having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him and without Murray, Points probably would have never won.  In 2016 Vaughn Taylor saved his career with a victory which did surprise many.  In 2018 Ted Potter, Jr. won in his ninth start.  It wasn’t that great of a year, he missed the cut in five events and his best finish was T-13th before winning at Pebble.
• Also look at Dustin Johnson, in 2009 Johnson was a surprise winner because he won due to the weather reducing the event to 54 holes, it’s always easy to win a tournament that you lead after 54 holes.
• The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 none of the first-round leaders went on to win.  But, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005 that 8 of the last 16 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011 were in the lead after the first day.  In 2015 Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round.  In 2016 it was back to normal as Taylor was way back after the first and second rounds and six back of the 54 hole leader, But in 2017 Jordan Spieth had the lead after every round, the first player to have the outright lead after every round since Mickelson did it in 2015.  In 2020 Nick Taylor shot a first-round 63 to take the lead and never looked back leading after every round.  Last year Daniel Berger opened with a 67 and was T-11th before he went crazy shooting 66-72-65 to win.
• One streak that is on the line and looking to stay intact is that in the previous 62 years of the American Express, nobody has ever won both the AT&T and the American Express in the same year.  Hudson Swafford isn’t playing so it is now 0 for 63 years.
• Putting is always a key at the AT&T especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon.  Those that can deal with it will be ahead of the game mentally.
• Look for someone that either hits lots of greens or putts very well to win.  He also has to play very well over the weekend which seems to be the key to the rest of the winners.  Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Because of that and the greens at Pebble don’t have many undulations, putting becomes vital in winning.  In making putts between 4 and 8 feet it has ranked one of the hardest courses on tour 6 of the last 13 years, Last year it ranked 1st while in 2020 it ranked 3rd. It was 1st in 2019, 10th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, and 3rd in 2016.  In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 1st last year and in 2019, 6th in 2018, 4th in both 2017 and in 2016, 15th in 2015, but first in 2014.   In putts outside of 25 feet it was 38th last year, T-20th 2020 and in 2019, 36th in 2018,  31st in 2017, and 9th in 2016.
• Lastly and very important, To win you have to make sure that you play well at Spyglass Hill.  In a way, that is the hardest of the courses, and a good round there gives you a big advantage.  A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson, he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering its scoring record and could build upon that great round.
• Now Spyglass is not the only secret, but also playing well on Monterey Peninsula is essential.  All three of these courses usually play to a total field average of par, since 2005 Spyglass has been over par 12 of the last 17 years, last year Spyglass played to a 72.788 average.
• What we did in the chart below was take the field average for that course and subtracted the winner’s score to figure out how many shots are picked up on the field and come up with a total shot gained on the field for these two rounds.  The findings are remarkable across the board for the 17 winners.