BlogWM Phoenix Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Back to Phoenix

The “Greatest Show on Grass” is back at TPC Scottsdale with a shorter name — it’s officially now the WM Phoenix Open — and a return of the enormous crowds. A year ago, due to COVID-19 restrictions, only a limited number of fans, 5,000 a day were granted admission. This year, it’s full speed ahead, and sponsors are looking for big days returning, with about 200,000 fans attending on Friday and Saturday.

Sunday will be the Super Bowl, with the big game being played in Los Angeles. But they still will pack them in to watch golf. In 2018, the last time the event released attendance figures, 719,179 went through the turnstiles setting the record for the biggest attendance in the tournament history. All told, four attendance records were broken in 2018 — the weekly attendance mark, plus record crowds on Wednesday (84,034), Friday (191,400), and Saturday (216,818). Unfortunately, poor weather created poor numbers, and the Phoenix Thunderbirds, the organization that runs the tournament, decided not to report the number of people attending, but we know this, it’s a boatload. Each year things get bigger and bigger, they have expanded several popular spots with new bleachers added behind the 10th green, and on the hospitality side, the 17 and 18th holes have close to 50 new suites. So there are a lot of ways to pack in even more people.

It’s reputation as the biggest party of the year for the PGA Tour. It seems that they just pack it in, either finding their way to the big pavilion, which has become the mainstay of this event, or go to the 16th hole, golf’s version of the Roman Coliseum. The 16th hole could be the wackiest place on the PGA Tour. A combination of genuine golf fans wanting to see some great golf and many others that wear out their arms hoisting their favorite adult beverage. The hole is surrounded by bleachers and hospitality tents, giving it that gladiator feel to it.

Is this the week for Jon Rahm?

We asked this same question two weeks ago at the Farmers, Rahm went into last week with three great finishes, and the thought was he would play well in the 2022 Farmers. After shooting 666-65 to lead going into the weekend, he stumbled into shooting 72-71 to finish T-3rd.  Rahm finds himself in the same position, coming into the week he was T-13th last year, T-9th in 2020, T-10th in 2019, T-11th in 2018, T-16th in 2017, and T-5th in 2015. So we can say his record isn’t as good as Torrey Pines, but we have to say he will be a player to watch. While many like Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele are returning from the middle east, Rahm is fresh, taking last week off, so he should be ready to go.

As for Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland

Both are coming off starts in the middle east and could have a touch of jet lag this week. Schauffele has been very successful in Phoenix, finishing T-2nd last year, T-16th in 2020, T-10th in 2019, and T-17th in 2018. He played in the Saudi International and shot a final round 72 to finish T-18th, nine back of winner Harold Varner III. Now for those wondering about Varner, he also is playing in Phoenix but has had limited success in his six starts his best starts in Phoenix are T-10th in 2019 and T-13th last year.

Another favorite has to be Viktor Hovland. He only has played once in Phoenix and missed the cut in 2020. I wouldn’t be concerned with that because he has won at Mayakoba, Hero World Challenge, and Dubai Desert Class in his last five starts. Adding to that list, he was T-4th at Abu Dhabi, so I have to think, along with Rahm, he will also be a favorite. Now he has taken a week off between his middle east trip, so Jet-lag shouldn’t be a problem.

Jordan Spieth

Boy, I look like a total fool when I stick a player on my don’t pick list, and he finishes 2nd. Spieth did that last week at Pebble Beach. Have to say his play was very dodgy at Torrey Pines the week before, and it starts before that. But we didn’t realize that Wednesday night of the Farmers, Spieth checked himself into Scripps Memorial and was told he had clostridioides difficile, which is a bacterium that causes an infection of the large intestine. He decided to play and shot 70-78 to miss the cut despite that. By the start of the AT&T, the stomach issue was just about gone. Still, he was getting his bearings opening up with 68 at Monterey Peninsula and then 70 at Spyglass Hill. But his game came together on Saturday, and he finished with 63-69 to finish two shots back of winner Tom Hoge. As for Spieth, he will also be a player to think of, he was T-4th last year in Phoenix and a T-9th in 2017, and T-7th in 2015.

Who else is hot coming into Phoenix?

We talked about Rahm, Hovland, and Spieth. We also can’t forget Tom Hoge, who won on the PGA Tour at Pebble for the first time. The 32-year-old turned pro in 2011 and became a PGA Tour regular in 2015. Since then has played in 203 PGA Tour events before getting his first win. Still, we have seen his finishing T-4th at the RSM Classic and again at the American Express finishing 2nd. So we have known his potential for a few months and have to say not surprised he did so well.

Another player to watch his week is Seamus Power. He has to be a bit disappointed after shooting 64 at Spyglass Hill and then 64 at Pebble and having the 36 hole lead. With the prospect of playing at the easier of the three courses at Monterey Peninsula, he had to be thinking of having an insurmountable lead going into the final round. A 74 brought him back to the pack, and a 72 on Sunday dropped him into a T-9th. Still, Power is playing well, he has been in the top-15 in his last five starts. He comes to a course that he missed the cut on in his only start in 2019, but I think he is a totally different player. If he could get one more top-five, it would guarantee him a trip to the Masters. Right now he is 46th in the World Rankings, but he has to maintain the top-50 until after the match play, so an excellent finish would seal the deal.

Now we can’t forget about Patrick Cantlay. He is playing for the first time at Phoenix. He comes into the week with a very consistent record. Since the FedExCup playoffs, he won two of the three, so he hasn’t been worst than 11th. Last month, he was 4th at Kapalua, 9th at the Amex, and T-4th at Pebble, so yes, he will be a person to watch.

Who else should we be looking at? 

First, it’s good to see what some of the top bookmakers think, first is oddschecker.com from England.

Next is a list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas

Sub-60 watch

Even though to the average player that knows the TPC Scottsdale is a tight layout, for those on the PGA Tour with great weather and no wind, the course could be nothing but a birdie and eagle feast. With great weather predicted for all four days and hardly a breath of wind, the chances are high that a 59 or even a 58 can be shot. For 72 holes, the PGA Tour low has come close to being broken, with Mark Calcavecchia shooting 256 in 2001 and Phil Mickelson shooting the same in 2013. In both cases, Calcavecchia and Mickelson shot 60 (There has been four 60s shot), with Mickelson coming the nearest as a birdie putt lipped out for 59 on his final hole. So I will say this, don’t be surprised to see the sub-60 barrier broken again, a matter of fact, I can think of about a dozen other courses during the year in which this will pop up. In a way, people love to see it happen, but if it becomes the norm, the PGA Tour may have to do something or ask the courses to do something to prevent this from being more the norm. Last year saw some folks coming close to the mark, Jordan Spieth had a 61 in the 3rd round, they also had four 63s shot during the week. So could a 59 be shot? Anything is possible.

WM Phoenix Open history: 

It began in 1932 as the Arizona Open and has been played at the TPC of Scottsdale, since 1987.  After the first two years, the event took the name, Phoenix Open in 1935. The only older tournaments on the PGA Tour are; the British Open (1860), U.S. Open (1895), Western Open (1899), Canadian Open (1904), PGA Championship (1916), Texas Open (1922), and the Nissan Open (1926).

Due to a lack of local support, the tournament was discontinued after 1935. The competition was revived thanks to the energy and vision of one man, Bob Goldwater, Sr. who was an avid golfer.  So in 1939, Goldwater’s new fledgling golf tournament was the official rebirth of the Phoenix Open. Goldwater was left with most of the work, he printed the tickets, sold sponsorships, and obtained the use of Phoenix Country Club. He even invited a few of his friends to tee it up at the tournament. Those friends just happened to be Bing Crosby, Bob Hope, and a golfer by the name of Ben Hogan. “I loved those early years,” said Goldwater. “I look back on those days with a sense of pride mixed with wonderment.” And, yes, after a few more persuasive talks and the success of the 1939 Phoenix Open, The Thunderbirds came around and lent their full support. During that 1939 tournament, a 27-year-old up-and-comer named Byron Nelson won the $700 first prize. Hogan finished second, 12 strokes back, and collected $450. Since then, The Thunderbirds had been a part of the event every year except 1943, when wartime travel restrictions forced a one-year hiatus. The list of professional golfers who have won in Phoenix reads like the golf Hall of Fame: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Miller Barber, Johnny Miller, Ben Crenshaw, and more recently Lee Janzen, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Tom Lehman, Mark Calcavecchia and Kenny Perry just to name a few. Over the tournament’s 81 year history, the Open has been known by many names, including the Western Open, the Arizona Open, the Ben Hogan Invitational, the Phoenix Open, the FBR Open, and now the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The tournament has been played at Phoenix Country Club, Arizona Country Club and the TPC Scottsdale, which has been the home course of the competition since 1987.  2018 will mark the 32nd consecutive year the tournament has been played at the Stadium Course at the TPC Scottsdale, and it has had a renovation to spruce it up and make it more challenging for the players. Thanks to the most fan-friendly tournament venue on Tour, it attracts the largest galleries of any golf tournament in the world. In fact, compared to the days when the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club, and the top attendance mark was 186,000 (1986), the event has grown by leaps and bounds. At the 2008 FBR Open, a PGA Tour record 538,356 fans attended the tournament, including 170,802 during Saturday’s third round alone. 2008′s Saturday attendance used to be a single-day PGA Tour record until 2013 when 179,022 fans came out for the third round. The 2016 event set a new attendance record when 618,365 fans came out. But in 2018 719,179 went through the turnstiles setting the record for the biggest attendance in the tournament history.  All told four attendance records were broken in 2018 — the weekly attendance mark, plus record crowds on Wednesday (84,034), Friday (191,400) and Saturday (216,818).  In 2019 poor weather made it impossible for these records to be broken and the Thunderbirds decided to stop reporting attendance figures, at least for 2019 and we know that no attendance records were not broken in 2021.

Course information:

• Played at TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Az.
• Par:  71 / Yardage: 7,261

In 2021, the course was the 42nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.45 average.

The TPC of Scottsdale was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, with Howard Twitty and Jim Colbert serving as player consultants.  The course opened in 1986 and had some exciting features like desert between the holes and fairways with many plants from the surrounding area. The layout also features mounding for spectators. The course can comfortably accommodate over 100,000 spectators, in 2018, 216,818 showed up for Saturday’s third round.  The average green size is 6,770 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. The course has 72 bunkers and six water hazards.

Surrounded by spectacular mountain views, the course was designed specifically to host the Phoenix Open, and the aforementioned mounding promises an excellent look to all of the 500,000+ in the galleries. Hole No. 16 will always be remembered as the site of Tiger Woods’ hole-in-one in 1998. Hole No. 17 will be recognized for the first and only hole in one on a par four during a PGA Tour event, which was recorded by Andrew Magee in 2001.

Major renovations were done before the 2016 event with four greens completely rebuilt while the other 14 resurfaced and reshaped.  45 yards was added, but three holes will play slightly shorter.  Every bunker was redone, in most cases bringing them more into play.  Also, 250 trees were added, so the combination of trees and bunkers coming into play off the tee will make the course slightly tighter.  Despite the change, average scores may be a bit higher but look for the winning score, which has averaged 17 under par for the last 20 years to stay the same.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the TPC Scottdale:

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Scottsdale, based on data from last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, and using data from all the field players for stats from 2022.

The field’s scoring average on TPC Scottsdale last year was 69.45, so with par being 71, that means the average score was a shot and a half under par, making TPC Scottsdale the 42nd (out of 51) hardest course to score on in 2021. Because of the perfect conditions, it was the first time that 70 was broken since 2013 when the scoring average was 68.95.

In looking at the stats for TPC Scottsdale from last year, driving and greens hit are essential. With fast fairways, the course ranked 44th in driving distance with an average drive of 306.5 yards (out of 51 courses, so that means that seven courses saw drives further) and T-22nd in driving accuracy. Going a step further from the nine TPC courses used on the PGA Tour in 2021, the only TPC course harder to get into the fairway was TPC San Antonio. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens our most important stat. Last year, the course ranked 44th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 13 years, all of the winners have been in the top-13 in greens hit, taking it a step further of those same champions ten of them finished in the top-four, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner Brooks Koepka hit 62 of the 72 greens and ranked 1st. The year before, Webb Simpson hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T-6th. In 2019, Rickie Fowler won the event hitting 52 greens and ranked T-13th. We can give Fowler a pass when you consider the poor weather in the final round with heavy rain during most of his round, which drove the final-round scoring average to 71.58 and led Fowler to shoot 74, the highest final round by a winner on the PGA Tour since Steven Bowditch’s 74 in winning the 2014 Valero Texas Open. In Phoenix’s final round, Fowler hit 11 greens, which was the reason for his high ranking. Fowler ranked 19th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green with the lousy weather and the highest of the last few winners. Going back a year to Gary Woodland in 2018, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2017 winner Hideki was 18th in driving distance, T-6th in driving accuracy, and T-2nd in greens in regulation, finishing 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Before 2016, Matsuyama also won and was 35th in driving distance, T-44th in driving accuracy, and 1st in greens hit. This added up to 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so you can see the importance in this stat since the last four of the five winners have been either 1st or 2nd. Last year Brooks Koepka was 6th in driving distance, T-27th in driving accuracy, and T-1st in greens in regulation, totally up to finishing 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The year before, Webb Simpson was 44th in driving distance, T-3rd in driving accuracy, and T-6th in greens in regulation, finish 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
So our first category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which is crucial for not only keeping the ball in the fairways but hitting greens and getting it close to the hole. Again the stats for most of the last 13 winners make this stat work, except for 2019 when Fowler struggled in poor weather.
Our second category is proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year’s winner, Brooks Koepka was T-6th in this stat, hitting it 33 feet, 2 includes from the hole. In 2020 Webb Simpson was T-9th in this category, hitting it 35 feet, 1 inch away. Again, forget that Rickie Fowler in 2019 won and was 46th in this stat. In 2018 the champion Gary Woodland was 13th. In 2017 the winner Matsuyama was 2nd, his average shot finishing 31 feet, 1 inch away. When Matsuyama won in 2016, he was 8th, his average shot finishing 35 feet, 10 inches away. For TPC Scottsdale in 2021, the course ranked 16th in proximity to hole.
After that, our third important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies are significant. Last year Brooks Koepka was T-5th in the field, making 22 birdies (he also had two eagles) ranking T-5th. TPC Scottsdale had 1,569 birdies and was 36th in birdie average. In 2021, Webb Simpson was 2nd best in the field, making 21. In 2019 Rickie Fowler was the best in the field, making an eagle and 23 birdies, in 2018, Gary Woodland was the best in the field as he made one eagle, and his 26 birdies were the best of the week. Matsuyama was 12th in this stat as he had 19 birdies and an eagle the previous year.
Our last category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-makers delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 24th out of 51 courses, while Brooks Koepka ranked T-50th before Webb Simpson ranked 14th. In 2019 winner Rickie Fowler was T-8th, 2018 winner Gary Woodland was 25th. The previous year Matsuyama was 17th in scrambling.
So you can see that this isn’t a bomber’s course since accuracy is such a key. Another important thing is that the weather is good, and the only problems stem from freezing mornings in which frost creates delays. This year is going to be a repeat of last year, the forecast is as close to perfect as you can get. Temperatures around 80 each day with minimal winds each day will create excellent scoring for the week.

One last thing to think about, other than Koepka, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson, the last ten winners aren’t what you call great putters, so I can see an average to below-average putter winning this event

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at TPC Scottsdale:

*Strokes gained tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how TPC Scottsdale ranked T-12tht in this stat, meaning that a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens hit is important

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, but proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, TPC Scottsdale ranked 18th last year and 5th in 2021 as the players averaged getting it 37 feet and 8 inches.

*Par Breakers: Desert courses always seem to give up a lot of birdies and eagles, last year TPC Scottsdale ranked 36th last year and 19th the previous in that stat. Making birdies and eagles at TPC Scottsdale could be a chore on some holes.

*Scrambling: Of the 51 courses on tour in 2021, TPC Scottsdale got it up and down 58.91% of the time, as it ranked 24th. So it’s important for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.

125 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats for WM Phoenix Open

DraftKings Tips

Look at some vital stats from the WM Phoenix Open

Of the 132 in the field, 113 have played at least once in the W.M. Phoenix Open.  Here are the players with the most under par totals in Phoenix since 2010:

• Bubba Watson is 121 under in 46 rounds playing 12 years
• Rickie Fowler is 104 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Brendan Steele is 92 under in 40 rounds playing 11 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 88 under in 29 rounds playing 8 years
• Gary Woodland is 73 under in 38 rounds playing 11 years
• Matt Kuchar is 73 under in 32 rounds playing 8 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 69 under in 38 rounds playing 10 years
• Martin Laird is 69 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Jon Rahm is 68 under in 24 rounds playing 6 years
• Billy Horschel is 60 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Justin Thomas is 58 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• Scott Piercy is 58 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Harris English is 54 under in 34 rounds playing 10 years
• James Hahn is 51 under in 32 rounds playing 9 years
• Zach Johnson is 51 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Nick Watney is 50 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Xander Schauffele is 49 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Charles Howell III is 47 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Keegan Bradley is 47 under in 36 rounds playing 10 years
• Daniel Berger is 46 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• William McGirt is 45 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Ryan Moore is 43 under in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Brooks Koepka is 42 under in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Pat Perez is 42 under in 25 rounds playing 9 years
• Charley Hoffman is 40 under in 42 rounds playing 12 years
• Jordan Spieth is 39 under in 16 rounds playing 5 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Louis Oosthuizen is 30 under playing 2 years (-15.0)
• Branden Grace is 26 under playing 2 years (-13.0)
• Nate Lashley is 26 under playing 2 years (-13.0)
• Xander Schauffele is 49 under playing 4 years (-12.3)
• Jon Rahm is 68 under playing 6 years (-11.3)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 88 under playing 8 years (-11.0)
• Brooks Koepka is 42 under playing 4 years (-10.5)
• Bubba Watson is 121 under playing 12 years (-10.1)
• J.T. Poston is 28 under playing 3 years (-9.3)
• Max Homa is 28 under playing 3 years (-9.3)
• Matt Kuchar is 73 under playing 8 years (-9.1)
• Rickie Fowler is 104 under playing 12 years (-8.7)
• Corey Conners is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
• Brendan Steele is 92 under playing 11 years (-8.4)
• Justin Thomas is 58 under playing 7 years (-8.3)
• K.H. Lee is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Scottie Scheffler is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Jordan Spieth is 39 under playing 5 years (-7.8)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Jon Rahm – $11,600
• Justin Thomas – $11,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,400
• Viktor Hovland – $10,400
• Jordan Spieth – $9,900
• Xander Schauffele – $9,700
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Daniel Berger – $9,200
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,100
• Bubba Watson – $9,000

Have to say it’s not the best field that they have had but there are a lot of great players in the field.  Jon Rahm leads off as the top price player at $11,600, in six starts worst finish was T-16th, has three top-ten with his best coming in 2015, T-5th.  Was T-13th last year.  Should do well but yes his price is high, but he was T-3rd at Farmers, T-14th at Amex, and 2nd at Sentry TofC.  Justin Thomas is next at $11,000, have to say was a bit confused at first with his high price.  But in his last three Phoenix starts was T-13th last year and 3rd in 2019 & ’20.  He also has played well, even with the stumble at Farmers finishing T-20th.  Was T-5th at Sentry TofC, T-5th at Hero, and 3rd at Mayakoba, so he is a good pick.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,700 is a good choice even though he hasn’t played in Phoenix.  Like that he was T-4th at Pebble, 9th at the Amex, and 4th at Sentry TofC.  Have to like that he averages 84.87 Draftkings points, so yes you are getting your money worth.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,400 is a player to think about.  Yes he has won this event twice, but that was in 2016 & ’17.  He was T-42nd last year and T-16th in 2020 so he can play well on this course.  I was high on him at the Farmers and was burned with his T-30th finish, so again he is a toss-up pick.  The same with Viktor Hovland at $10,200, forget that in one start he missed the cut at Phoenix, go with the fact he has won three times in his last five starts and averages 87.30 DraftKings points.  Jordan Spieth at $9,900 is another good pick, he showed up last week at Pebble that his game is ok and he is playing well.  Now the big problem is all of these guys are great picks, but you can’t take more than one.  Even Xander Schauffele at $9,700 is hard to put in with others from this price point, but Schauffele is a fair pick.  He has not finished higher than 17th in four starts and was T-2nd last year.  But in Sandi Arabia, he was T-18th and T-34th at Torrey Pines.  Yes, he could be jet-lagged, but still, when you least expect it he plays well.  Brooks Koepka at $9,400 is my first true no.  I realize he has won this event twice including last year but still hasn’t shown us he is ready to do well week to week.  Sam Burns at $9,300 is also a no, just don’t think of him as a west coast type of guy, so it’s best to hold off on him for another couple of weeks when the tour goes east to Florida.  Same with Daniel Berger at $9,200, his back was terrible at Torrey, he withdrew from the AT&T and now we are to think he is back to normal?  Hell no, don’t think twice about Berger just wait for the tour to end east.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,100 is a very good buy, he was T-7th last year in Phoenix and even though he struggled at the Farmers and Amex I still think he will be good this week.  Bubba Watson is $9,000 and we know he is good at Phoenix, never won it but has two runner-up finishes, a 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  He did finish 2nd last week in Saudi Arabia, that has been his only start since the Northern Trust back in August.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 WM Phoenix Open on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Phoenix starts:

• Matt Kuchar made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Jon Rahm made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 11,600.
• Brooks Koepka made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Xander Schauffele made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Max Homa made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Sam Ryder made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Bubba Watson made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%. His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Brandt Snedeker made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Billy Horschel made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Zach Johnson made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Brian Harman made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Brian Stuard made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Nick Watney made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Charles Howell III made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Bill Haas made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Adam Hadwin made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Patton Kizzire made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Emiliano Grillo made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Brendan Steele made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%. His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Scott Piercy made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Keegan Bradley made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Chesson Hadley made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Carlos Ortiz made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Seung-Yul Noh made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• James Hahn made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Rickie Fowler made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Martin Laird made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Charley Hoffman made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• William McGirt made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Beau Hossler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Many will pick Tony Finau at $8,900.  Have to say that is not a great choice, yes he was T-2nd at Phoenix two years ago, but he also has a lot of missed cuts.  Also he missed the cut at the Farmers and his trip to Saudi Arabia despite probably being financially great was not good golf-wise as he finished T-28th.  So now he will be playing jet-lagged and I wouldn’t touch him with a 20-foot pole.  One person you least expected to play well, could be Matt Fitzpatrick who is priced at $8,700.  He hasn’t played much since finishing runner-up at the DP World in November was T-12th at the Hero and T-6th at Pebble.  Seamus Power is priced at $8,400 which is really low for him, but after the weekend at Pebble, we don’t know how he will react.  I say pick him, think he will brush off his weekend 74-72.  Tom Hoge is $8,100 and many will take him, I say no.  His record at Scottsdale is not great and just think too much is taken out of him by winning.  Billy Horschel at $7,900 is a very good pick, in nine starts at Scottsdale he only has one top-ten T-9th in 2020 but he has been very consistent making eight of nine cuts.  For the last six months or so he has been very consistent, he averages 72.55 DraftKing points per event so worth the money.  Many will take Harold Varner III at $7,800 after winning in Saudi Arabia, but I say to avoid him, he will be jet-lagged and tired from the win.  People will also pick Talor Gooch at $7,800, but I say no to him.  In three starts at Phoenix and not played great missing two cuts, plus he has come down to earth after the RSM victory so hold off on him.  The same with Luke List at $7,700.  He won the Farmers, but has never played well in the Phoenix Open, and just thinks it’s best to hold off on him.  I do like Max Homa at $7,600, he was T-6th at Phoenix in 2020, and have to think he is getting ready to defend his Genesis title next week.  Last we have to pick Rickie Fowler at $7,600.  His last victory was in this event in 2019, I know he missed the cut at the Farmers and Amex but think his time is close to regaining some of his past lusters.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Our first bargain is Andrew Putnam at $7,500 he was T-7th last year in Scottsdale and was T-6th at Pebble.  Matt Kuchar is $7,400 and what I like about him is his consistency in this event.  He may have missed the cut at Pebble but was T-7th at the Sony so worth taking him at such a good price.  Joel Dahmen at $7,400 is also worth it, yes his record is bad at Scottsdale, but is missing the cut last year shot 65 in the final round.  He also played well at Pebble finishing T-6th.  Charles Howell III is $7,200 and a good pick because he makes a lot of cuts and gets lots of points.  Same with Zach Johnson at $6,800, he plays well and makes cuts in this event. Lucas Herbert at $6,800 is also a great price, playing the event for the first time but like that he could win at any time.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• It used to be the player with the hot putter dominated this tournament as between 1997 and 2007 all the champions except for one (2003 Vijay Singh) were in the top-nine in putting.  On the reverse, between 1997 and 2008 of the 12 champions only three were in the top ten of greens hit.  Since 2008 of the 14 winners, Rickie Fowler broke the poor streak in 2019 when he ranked T-5th in putting, in 2020 Webb Simpson was T-14th with Brooks Koepka T-33rd. Before that the best was two players ranked 10th in putting as the winners ranked between 10th and 71st in putting.  But in that same period, all the champions were in the top-6 of greens hit (the worst was Kevin Stadler, who ranked 10th and Fowler who ranked T-13th) while five of the winners in those eight years led the stat (Matsuyama led in 2016 and was T-2nd in 2017).  A major change came about to the course in 2004 and then in 2005, so it just took a bit before hitting lots of greens took over.  Overall the TPC Scottsdale ranked 44th of all the courses in 2019 in greens in regulation, so it’s essential to hit all of the greens.
• Another key is to follow each one of our vital stats.  Each week brings on a different course with different conditions and different ways for players to embrace the course.  Probably because the WM Phoenix Open always gets excellent weather, you will see each of our key stats materialize over the course of week’s play at this course and event is becoming easier to judge who will play well and who will not.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

One useless stat:  The course is in the desert and in past years had the longest driving average.  In 2014 the average drive was 301.4, but in 2015 it went down to 288.5 probably because of the changes made to the course before the 2015 tournament.  Last year the course averaged 306.5 as it ranked 44th on the PGA Tour (only 7 other courses had higher driving average)  So common sense would be that the winners are big hitters, that isn’t the case.  Since 1997, only six of the last 25 champions have been in the top-ten of the weekly driving distance stat with eight of them out of the top-25.  In 2019 Rickie Fowler was 11th in driving distance Webb Simpson was 44th in 2020 and Brooks Koepka was 6th last year  Still hitting it long really doesn’t help in winning this tournament.

13 of the last 25 champions had had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone that is playing well to win.  In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to the 2010 event.  In 2011 Mark Wilson won just two weeks before the event at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and in 2012 Kyle Stanley lost a playoff the week before winning at Phoenix.  Unfortunately, that trend ended as the last three winners didn’t play well before winning.  In 2015 Brooks Koepka was playing his first event in six weeks, taking some time off, so the time off was perfect for him.  In 2016 Hideki Matsuyama finished 2nd in the SBS Tournament of Champions along with his four wins in the last three months.  In 2017 Matsuyama finished T-4th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions so look for a player that has done well.  In 2018 Gary Woodland was T-7th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T-12th at the Farmers the week before Phoenix.  In 2019 Fowler didn’t play that much, but five weeks before he did finish T-5th at the Hero Challenge.  In 2020 Webb Simpson was 2nd in the RSM Classic and 3rd at the Sony Open his last starts before winning in Phoenix.  Now the myth gets completely blown out of the water with Brooks Koepka.  He was injured before his injury and to show how poorly he was playing, he missed the cut in the three events before Phoenix.

Players can’t be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 100,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.

Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 25 years, the winners have averaged hitting 75.2% of the greens and averaged 22.31 birdies for the week.  LIn 2020 Webb Simpson hit 56 of 72 greens and made one eagle and 21 birdies.  Last year Brooks Koepka hit 62 of 72 greens and made two eagles and 22 birdies.

One last important fact is that birdies have to be made on par 4s.  This is one of those events in which scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s.  Since 1997, 15 of the 25 champions have done better, in 2015 Brooks Koepka played the par 5s in just 2 under par while he was 11 under on the par 4s.  In 2016 Hideki Matsuyama played the par 5s in 6 under while he was 9 under on the par 4s.  In 2018 Woodland was 8 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s.  In 2019 Rickie Fowler was 7 under on the par 5s but 9 under on the par 4s.  In 2020 Webb Simpson was 14 under on the par 4s and 3 under on the par 5s.  Last year Koepka was only 5 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s.

This week will see great weather as conditions couldn’t be any better in Scottsdale with every day being in the low 80s, no rain, and very little wind.