BlogHonda Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Before we tackle the Honda Classic, we need to spend a moment on what is happening in golf.  It looks like the Saudi-backed golf league is dead in the water.  When both Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau announced they would stick with the PGA Tour, it meant that all 20 of the top-20 off the world rankings have said no to the new league.  Now the new league is rumored to have signed up 20 player, speculation is that those include Phil Mickelson, Ian Poulter, Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson.  But the big problem, your not going to get the credibility needed with these names and players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson not playing.

It will be interesting what happens in the future, in 1996 when Greg Norman tried to start a rival league and was unsuccessful, a couple of years later the World Golf Championship series began.  So could we see some rival events that are sponsored by the PGA Tour come about?

At the end of the day for most fans and those that wager in golf, we want a tournament each week to be able to bet on and would like as many marquee players to participate.  That is what happens now, we also have the European Tour and about a dozen events that bring interest to that tour, so in a way for betters everything is perfect.

The hardest thing to fathom in sports is now the greed, between not only the players but the organizations that want to keep the status que shall we say.  One thing, Phil Mickelson was wrong, but I give him a lot of credit for coming out on Tuesday with a statement saying as much and falling on the sword.  I don’t know what the future is for him and if the fans will forgive him for sounding so greedy in this process.  Hopefully golf and other sports will learn a lesson over this and we can get back to normal.

West Coast swing became hard to pick a winner

Picking winners on the PGA Tour in 2022 has been quite an adventure.  Just look at the last five winners, Hudson Swafford in the American Express, Luke List in the Farmers, Tom Hoge at the AT&T Pebble, Scottie Scheffler at Phoenix and now Joaquiun Niemann at the Genesis.  We knew that Scheffler was overdue to finally get his first PGA Tour win, but frankly he wasn’t on many peoples list of pre-Phoenix favorites.  In 1997 the PGA Tour started an advertising campaign with the new slogan, “These Guys Are Good.”  How true that slogan is and gamblers today really don’t realize that of the 150 or so players that have full PGA Tour playing privileges, if you count all of the marquee players like Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas there are about 70 players that can win on any given day.  At the beginning of the 2021 season in September of 2021, players like Sam Burns, Lucas Herbert, Jason Kokrak, Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, Luke List, Tom Hoge and Joaquin Niemann would of been mystery players and not players that would be on your radar screen.  Going forward from today on, if we mention the names Maverick McNealy, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, Seamus Power, Joel Dahmen and Mito Pereira and say these players have just as good of a chance of winning on the PGA Tour as say Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson or Justin Thomas you may laugh at me.  The point is, winning tournament has always and will always be a fickle thing.

Genesis winner Joaquin Niemann is a perfect example.  One Wednesday night you could of gotten Niemann for +6,000, so a simple $5 bet on Niemann would of won you $305.  If you were making your picks on Wednesday for DraftKings you could of gotten Niemann for just $7,900.  Still not many people bet for Niemann, in DraftKings PGA Tour $1.2 million pitch and Putt game out of 70,314 players in the game 11.73% of those used Niemann on their card as he was the 18th most favorite player.  Since he turned pro in 2018 Niemann has finished in the top-ten an average of 3 times a year and in those 20 events he finished in the top-ten, has finished in the top-three, six times.  Not a bad record for a player with 102 PGA Tour starts.  The hard part is figuring out when he will play well.  One important element is how a player does on a certain course, frankly for Niemann his record wasn’t that great at Riviera, in three previous start his best finish was T-43rd in 2021.  In the case of Niemann he was happy in his last start before finishing T-6th at the Farmers, but that was three weeks previously.  So between that and his poor record at the Genesis it’s the reason not many folks were interested in Niemann.

In the weeks ahead we have to keep in mind more players like Joaquin Niemann instead of a Rory McIlroy or a Dustin Johnson.  Matter of fact Niemann has two wins, his last at the start of the 2019 season. In that time period he has more wins than Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Louis Oosthuizen, Jordan Spieth, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau players who rank above Niemann.

So in picking winners here is a good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

or you can use another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Honda Classic

This will be the 50th Honda Classic.  The tournament got started in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at Inverrary Golf & C.C. in Lauderhill, Florida.  A bit strange and nobody will bother to care, but last month Jackie Gleason would have been the 105 years old.  Most of the players don’t even know who he was and how great the old Honeymooner shows were. Maybe I am old and remember him, he was a hilarious guy and loved golf.  In 1981 Jackie Gleason was dropped from the tournament, and the following year Honda came aboard as the tournament sponsor, today they are the longest running sponsor on the PGA Tour. After playing at several courses for 15 years, the tournament switched courses again in 2007. This time to the Champion Course at PGA National, site of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship.  It became an instant success and had upgraded the tournament with more marquee and higher ranked players attending. In 1976 the Players Championship, which back then moved around to different courses, chose Inverrary Golf & C.C., and the Inverrary Classic wasn’t played that year.  The event is the first event in the Florida swing.

Course information:

• PGA National (Champion Course)
• Palm Beach Gardens, Fl.
• 7,125 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 147 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course.  It also sells local memberships.
• Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio in 1981, Jack Nicklaus redesigned the course in 1990, adding the feared “Bear Trap” holes 15, 16, and 17. PGA National has a lot of experience holding golf tournaments, the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship, and 18 Senior PGA Championship has been held on the course.  Since 2007 it’s been the home of the Honda Classic.  PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand. Look for scores to be a bit high, especially if the wind blows.  The course has 78 bunkers and 26 water hazards in which 13 holes have water in play for the professionals.  The last four holes create a lot of drama in which water on par three 15th and 17th holes have broken many dreams of winning.  The 18th hole also makes a lot of drama; it’s a long par five that is close to impossible to hit in two, it’s a true par 5.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways surrounded by water and sand along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important, since moving to PGA National in 2007, 9 of the 15 winners and 13 of the 22 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top-ten in greens hit.  Last years winner Matt Jones hit 52 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, the previous winner Sungjae Im ranked T-2nd in greens hit.
• The par 3s are some of the toughest on tour, last year, they ranked 3rd hardest on tour, but winner Matt Jones played them in one under.  The previous year the par 3s ranked 2nd hardest as Sungjae I’m played them in just one under.  The year before in 2019, Keith Mitchell played them in four under, and 2018 winner Justin Thomas was two under on the par 3s.  In the last six years the par 3s at PGA National haven’t been worst than sixth hardest on tour.  So you can see, the par 3s are key in winning. .
• One last item that has to be discussed is the “Bear Trap,” holes 15, 16, and 17.  These three holes, surrounded by water and danger, are among the most challenging stretches on the PGA Tour.  Thanks to Shotlink stats, we can see that since 2007 there have been 6,480 total rounds played in the Honda Classic.  Throughout those rounds, the field is 4,136 over par as 1,604 balls have found water in the three-hole stretch.  Even more impressive, of the 582 players that have played in the Honda Classic since 2007, 511 of 582 players (87.8%) are over par on the Bear Trap in their respective careers.  That shows how challenging these holes are.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the PGA National:

This is based on the most important stats for PGA National Champion Course, based on data from last year’s Honda Classic, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at PGA National last year was 71.10, making it the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021. The previous year it played to a 71.90, making it the 3rd hardest course to score on in 2020. In the last four years, the course has ranked 6th toughest or lower, in 2018, it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 72.30 average. Since joining the tour in 2007, the course has never played under par, and the easiest it ever played was in 2014 when it played to a scoring average of 70.41 and was the 17th hardest course for the year.

This has been the norm for this course since it was first held in 2007. It’s been one most demanding course on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012 when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19 and in 2014 when it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. In 2019 it was the 5th hardest course with a 71.02 average, in 2018, it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 72.30 scoring average. One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year between Thursday and Saturday, the winds blew between 8 to 16 mph, and on Sunday it blew 10 to 20 mph. In 2018 it blew up to 25 mph each day, which played havoc for the players and protected the course to low scores. This year the winds will blow each day between 8 to 13 mph. In the last three weeks, the area has only had less than two inches of rain, and in the previous week, it only got a trace of rain on Saturday. With the long-range forecast not showing rain, the course will play bone dry and again complex and fast even with manageable winds.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year, Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole, and Scambling is essential. Last year, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation, but it ranked 4th in greens hit with a 57.10 average in the previous year. Winner Matt Jones was T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. The last winner Sungjae Im was T-2nd in greens hit, while in 2016, winner Adam Scott was 1st in greens hit. Now hitting fairways isn’t that important. The course ranked 18th last year as Jones hit 36 of 56 to rank T-15th (Jones was T-24th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). The previous year it ranked 21st while Im was T-10th in fairways hit (Im was 40th in driving distance and was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). But the importance comes when you miss the fairways, the course has very tough Bermuda rough with perennial ryegrass and in some of the hardest to get out of trouble. Last year the course ranked 24th in getting it close to the hole from the rough while Jones was 44th. The previous year the course was 7th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while champion Im had a tough time ranking 64th.
Our third stat is scrambling, last year PGA National was the 7th hardest course on tour in getting it up and down, while Jones was 17th in scrambling but 2nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green. In the previous year, PGA National was 3rd hardest on tour while Im shined on this stat as he was T-5th in scrambling and 5th in Strokes Gained Around the Green.
Last we picked Par Breakers because it was hard to make a lot of birdies and eagles in the past. Last year PGA National had 1,396 birdies and eagles for the week and averaged 18.42, the 13th hardest on tour. Champion Jones made 20 birdies and one eagle and was T-1st in Par Breakers. The previous year saw PGA National yield 1,197 birdies and eagles for the week and averaged 15.65, the 3rd hardest on tour. As for Im in 2020, he was T-1st in par breakers making 19 birdies for the week. So in looking at why both Matt Jones and Sungjae Im won, they both hit lots of greens, did very well getting it up and down on the greens they missed, and were tops in making birdies and eagles. It was no surprise that both champions were 1st in Strokes Gained Total of all the categories.
One of the sad elements of this tournament is the weakness of the field, it has the worst turnout since the tour restarted at Kapalua in January. The highest rank played in the field is #13 Louis Oosthuizen, and there are only three top-20 players and only 11 top-50 players. It’s a bit embarrassing when the tournament can’t even get players who live near it like Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson. Still, this time slot is very competitive since they just played in Phoenix and Genesis, highly regarded events, and next week they go to the Arnold Palmer and the week after the Players. Something has to give they can’t play in all of them, and since the Honda is stuck in the middle, they get the short stick on marquee players.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats for players to do well at PGA National:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,400 square feet normally they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 16th hardest to hit while in 2020 it was the 4th hardest to hit. In 2019 it was the 7th hardest to hit, in 2018 it was the 4th hardest to hit, while in 2017 they were the 15th hardest and in 2016 they were the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National, in 2015 it ranked 6th, in 2014 it ranked 18th, but in 2013 5th, in 2012 11th, and 6th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee, last year PGA National finished 24th while in 2020 it ranked 7th, while the year before it was 6th and in 2018 it was 9th. In 2017 it was 8th and in 2016 it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happen so it’s important to salvage par. Last year PGA National ranked 7th while the previous year it ranked 3rd. In 2019 it ranked 20th while in 2018 it was the 8th hardest. In 2017 it was the 15th hardest while in 2016 it was the 5th hardest in scrambling while in 2015 it was the 7th hardest so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 13th last year and 3rd the year before. In 2018 it ranked 5th and 2nd in 2017. In 2016 it ranked 8th and 5th in this stat on tour in 2015.

127 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats of players in the Honda Classic.

DraftKings tips

Historical totals

Of the 144 in the field, 112 have played at least once in the Honda.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the Honda since 2015:

• Tommy Fleetwood is 10 under in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Sungjae Im is 9 under in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Brandon Hagy is 6 under in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Chase Koepka is 1 under in 4 rounds playing 1 years
• Lee Westwood is 1 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Chase Seiffert is Even in 6 rounds playing 2 years
• Danny Willett is 1 over in 2 rounds playing 1 years
• Kramer Hickok is 1 over in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Rickie Fowler is 1 over in 40 rounds playing 12 years
• Lucas Herbert is 2 over in 4 rounds playing 1 years
• Nick Taylor is 2 over in 6 rounds playing 2 years
• Sam Ryder is 2 over in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Adam Svensson is 3 over in 4 rounds playing 1 years
• Aaron Wise is 4 over in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Alex Noren is 4 over in 10 rounds playing 3 years
• C.T. Pan is 4 over in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Daniel Berger is 4 over in 20 rounds playing 6 years
• Doc Redman is 4 over in 2 rounds playing 1 years
• K.H. Lee is 4 over in 10 rounds playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Tommy Fleetwood is 10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Sungjae Im is 9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)
• Brandon Hagy is 6 under, playing 4 years (-1.5)
• Lee Westwood is 1 under, playing 8 years (-0.1)
• Chase Seiffert is Even, playing 2 years (0.0)
• Rickie Fowler is 1 over, playing 12 years (0.1)
• Kramer Hickok is 1 over, playing 2 years (0.5)
• Daniel Berger is 4 over, playing 6 years (0.7)
• Lucas Glover is 6 over, playing 9 years (0.7)
• C.T. Pan is 4 over, playing 5 years (0.8)
• Nick Taylor is 2 over, playing 2 years (1.0)
• Sam Ryder is 2 over, playing 2 years (1.0)
• Nick Watney is 6 over, playing 6 years (1.0)
• Luke Donald is 8 over, playing 8 years (1.0)
• Aaron Wise is 4 over, playing 3 years (1.3)
• Alex Noren is 4 over, playing 3 years (1.3)
• K.H. Lee is 4 over, playing 3 years (1.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

With the field the way it is, the course playing tough one of the biggest items you should think about is picking six guys that will make the cut.  This will be the hardest event so far in 2020 to pick players that will participate in four rounds.  So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Florida and players that have done poorly out west may all of a sudden find there game on Bermuda greens heat, humidity and wind.

One thing that burned me last week was the withdrawal of Matt Fitzpatrick on Thursday morning at the Genesis.  He was one of my favorites and the big problem is not finding information out on players.  When a player withdraws just an hour before his tee time it gives us no time to make a change and when you have a withdrawal on Thursdays, that means your player will earn zero points and you have very low odds on earning any money on that ticket. I know that on Thursday after I found out about the withdrawal, I found a tweet from Golf Digest writer Dan Rapaport that Fitzpatrick had withdrawn from the Pro-am due to illness, but by early Thursday morning it was too late.  Guess this is the low point on playing DraftKings or any other gambling game.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Sungjae Im – $11,000
• Louis Oosthuizen – $10,800
• Joaquin Niemann – $10,600
• Daniel Berger – $10,400
• Brooks Koepka – $10,100
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,900
• Billy Horschel – $9,600
• Shane Lowry – $9,400
• Alex Noren – $9,300
• Matthew Wolff – $9,200
• Keith Mitchell – $9,100
• Matt Jones – $9.000

We are now in a tournament that frankly nobody has dominated on a course that is hard to dominate on.    Remember this, in past years this course has played tough due to wind.  Forecasts predict rough conditions, especially over the weekend so be sure to keep that in mind, have to pick players that have patient in tough conditions. But again try your hardest to pick six guys to make the cut.  Off the bat our top pick is the 2020 champion Sungjae Im at $11,000.  Last year he also was the favorite and wasn’t playing well but finished T-8th.  This year is different, he is playing well in his last three starts was T-11th at the American Express, T-6th at Farmers and T-33rd at Genesis.  Does that mean you fork over $11,000?  I won’t and advise you not to overpay for him.   Have to wonder how DraftKings prices Louis Oosthuizen at $10,800?  In six starts in the Honda his best finish is T-21st and he hasn’t had a top-ten finish since the 3M Open back in July.  So this is an easy choice, a no for Louis.  Joaquin Niemann at $10,600 is also a no, yes he was spectacular at Genesis last week, but that was last week and Niemann looked very tired on Sunday, best to not take him.  Daniel Berger at $10,400 and he has had success at the Honda, finishing 2nd in 2015 and T-4th in 2020. He wasn’t able to play last year due to a back injury, which has hit him again over the last month.  He says he is ok, despite the pain was able to finish T-20th at the Farmers.  Still I am not going to spend such a high price for someone that isn’t 100% healthy.  Brooks Koepka is $10,100 and that is a lot of money for a player as inconsistent as Brooks.  We honestly don’t know from week to week when it’s a good time to pick Brooks, but I like him this week.  He plays his best on hard courses and PGA National is hard.  Yes in his last start at the Honda missed the cut in 2020, but the previous year he was T-2nd.  So I am taking the high road on Koepka.  Tommy Fleetwood is $9,900 and we wonder if he is a good pick.  He has played at Honda twice, finishing 4th in 2018 and 3rd in 2020.  He has played ok, his last start was T-12th at Dubai so yes he is worth the money.  My dark horse for the week is Billy Horschel at $9,600.  You never know when he will play well, in nine starts was T-4th in 2017 and T-8th in 2016.  So he can play the course well, but has not been good in his other starts.  I like him because he has played solid in his last two starts, was T-11th at the Farmers and T-6th at Phoenix.  Many don’t realize it but Horschel was born, raised and lives in Florida so I think he will be great for this week.  Shane Lowry at $9,400 is prices way too high for a player in four starts best finish was T-21st at the Honda.  He hasn’t had a top-ten since November and frankly his offensive on making birdies and eagles is not very strong, so take a pass on him.  Same on Alex Noren at $9,300, yes he was 3rd in this event in 2018 and was T-6th at Phoenix, but he is way overpriced.  Matthew Wolff at $9,200 is a no, he just isn’t playing well right now.  Keith Mitchell at $9,100 is a yes, this man plays great in Florida and won this event in 2019.  He also has played well of late with four top-12 finishes in his last five starts.  Defending champion Matt Jones at $9.000 is a no, yes he was 3rd at Kapalua and T-15th last week at Genesis, but he is weak on offensive averaging only 66.82 DraftKing points per event according to our GOLFiQ – DraftKings Insight chart.

Here is our new feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Honda Classics on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Honda Classics starts:

• Stewart Cink made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Jason Dufner made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Gary Woodland made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Nick Watney made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Shane Lowry made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Aaron Wise made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,000.
• Brendan Steele made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Jimmy Walker made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Lee Westwood made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Michael Thompson made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Ryan Palmer made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Mackenzie Hughes made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Charles Howell III made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Vaughn Taylor made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• William McGirt made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Charl Schwartzel made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Luke Donald made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Adam Schenk made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Brandon Hagy made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Ian Poulter made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Kevin Streelman made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Matt Jones made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Zach Johnson made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Mito Pereira at $8,900 is a tossup, yes has never played in this event and has had ups and downs in his 11 PGA Tour starts in 2022.  But he was T-15th at the Genesis and averages 72.34 DraftKings points per event.  Aaron Wise at $8,400 is worth a try, he has made three of three cuts at Honda and last year was T-13th.  He is another of those players who are best on Bermuda.  Mackenzie Hughes at $8,300Mis also worth the money, he was 2nd in this event in 2020 and has had his moments on the PGA Tour in 2022 including a 2nd at the RSM Classic.  Russell Knox at $8,100 is someone to watch, he grew up in Inverness, Scotland but has played most of his golf in Florida, lives in Ponte Vedra. At the Honda was T-2nd in 2014, T-3rd in 2015 so we know he can play well on the course.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,000 is playing in the Honda for the first time, showed lot’s of promise on being able to play in Florida with his 7th place finish in Arnold Palmer and T-41st at the Players last year.  The player in this category I like the most is C.T. Pan at $7,700.  He was T-3rd last year and was 9th last week at the Genesis.  I also like Nicolai Hojgaard at $7,600.  He is making his first PGA Tour start in America, the 20 year-old has shown a lot of talent and some good play, winning twice in Europe. He won Ras Al Khaimah Championship three weeks ago, has shown a knack for playing well in Bermuda.  Last we have to talk about Rickie Fowler at $7,600.  Yes we don’t know which Rickie will show up, but he is playing at home and has had great moments at the Honda and this week can be one of them.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Have a couple of guys worth the price, first Michael Thompson at $7,600.  He is a past champion and plays well in this event, he was T-5th at Sony and T-11th at Farmers.  Lucas Herbert at $7,300 is a person that does well on Bermuda and could play well this week.  Stewart Cink is $7,100 and has made ten cuts in his last ten starts at Honda.  Nothing spectacular, he won’t win but he will play four rounds and earn you some points.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Honda Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

At the Honda and PGA National, historically all of the winners have some connection to playing well on Bermuda by either being born in Florida, South Africa or Australia or have moved to the Southeast like 2019 champion Keith Mitchell who  lives in St. Simons Island, Georgia.  2018 winner Justin Thomas now lives just down the road from PGA National and with 2017 winner Rickie Fowler.  Even defending champion Sungjae Im bought a house in Atlanta and likes to stay a lot with relatives in the Tampa Bay area. There is also a connection with those like past champions Ernie Els, Camilo Villegas, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy who have homes Jupiter, Florida.  Even Adam Scott has a home in the Bahamas, which has the same conditions as Florida courses. Even guys like 2007 winner Mark Wilson, who was born in Wisconsin and lives in Illinois has a connection.  His went to school in North Carolina, so you can see why his five PGA Tour has been on Bermuda courses in Florida, Mexico, Hawaii, Phoenix and Palm Springs.  2004 winner Russell Henley grew up in Macon, Georgia and lives on Kiawah Island which could understand why his two PGA Tour and three Korn Ferry tour wins are on courses with Bermuda grass.  So look for players with that Bermuda connections.  Even defending champion Matt Jones, despite living today in Scottsdale, Arizona was born and raised in Australia and learned to play on Bermuda and wind.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

Unbelievable and bizarre stat:

PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand, look for scores to be a bit high especially when the wind blows.  This will be the first time players see Bermuda fairways, rough and greens on the year that haven’t been overseeded with rye so it will take some getting used to.

Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways that are surrounded by water and sand not only along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important, since moving to PGA National in 2007, 9 of the 15 winners and 13 of the 22 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top-ten in greens hit.s

Very tough par 4s at PGA National, Mark Wilson, was 4 under in ’07, Ernie Els was 2 under in ’08, Y.E. Yang was 6 under in ’09 while Camilo Villegas was 9 under par in ’10. Keeping the trend going was Rory Sabbatini in 2011 playing them in 7 under, but showing that they are tough was Rory McIlroy who was only 3 under in 2012, Michael Thompson who was only 2 under on them in 2013 and Russell Henley who was 6 under in 2014.  In 2015 Padraig Harrington played them in 5 under while Adam Scott was 4 under in 2016.  In 2017 Rickie Fowler was 5 under on the par 4s while 2018 winner Justin Thomas was 1 under.  In 2019 Keith Mitchell proved how tough the par 4s played as he was even par for the week and 2020 champion Sungjae Im was one over par on the par 4s.  Last year Matt Jones played the par 4s in five under.

Good putting and scrambling.  The greens are massive and have lots of contours so the winner will be a very good lag putter.

Interesting to note that 11 of the last 18 winners of the Honda are those that are either born Floridians or now live in Florida (unfortunately defending champion Sungjae im and 2019 winner Keith Mitchell doesn’t qualify even though Mitchell’s St. Simon’s Island home is in Georgia next to the Florida border).  A perfect example is 2006 champion, Luke Donald.  Even though he was born in Great Britain and spent a good part of his time in Chicago, he had a house just a couple of miles away.  Look for that kind of a connection in the winner.  We don’t count 2013 winner Michael Thompson on our list, but he lives in Birmingham, Alabama, so he has to deal all the time with Bermuda when he is home.  The same with 2014 winner Russell Henley who lives in Kiawah Island, South Carolina and again with have a Bermuda connection.  Now we can’t consider Padraig Harrington as a “Floridan” even though he has had a place in Florida and has spent time there, while Adam Scott grew up playing not only on Bermuda grass but also playing in winds that will be around this week.  Oh and 2018 winner Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler live just up the road in Jupiter and plays into the scenario on picking a player with local roots.

Good bunker player since there are a lot of strategically placed bunkers on the course.

Look for those that play good in wind, just look at 2015 & ’05 champion Padraig Harrington along with 2018 champion Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler, 2016 winner Adam Scott and defending champion Matt Jones.  All are from areas that have winds in Ireland, Kentucky, California and Australia so don’t think there is anybody better qualified after learning to play golf in these areas.  It could be quite windy this time of year, and the course is susceptible to winds so look for a good wind player.