BlogArnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Tour is back at Bay Hill, which was the pride and joy of Arnold Palmer. This will be the sixth time that this event has returned to Bay Hill without Palmer, and the concern is that the turnout is not. Yes, there are 59 of the top-100 players in the field and 31 top-50. That is good, especially when you are concerned about raising the purse to $12 million. The problem is the field is missing #2 Collin Morikawa, #3 Patrick Cantlay, #7 Justin Thomas, #8 Xander Schauffele, #9 Dustin Johnson, #10 Cameron Smith, #12 Bryson DeChambeau, #13 Louis Oosthuizen, $14 Jordan Spieth, #15 Brooks Koepka, #17 Daniel Berger, #18 Harris English, #19 Abraham Ancer, #20 Tony Finau and #21 Joaquin Niemann. These are the players that drive the train, and many will say, geez, a tournament like Phoenix with an $8.2 million purse or a Farmers with an $8.4 million purse got as many marquee players as the Palmer. Unfortunately, golf still believes in the myth that money attracts more good players, that isn’t the case, and we are seeing it this week and last week in which players live within miles of the venue and aren’t playing.

As we said last week, frankly, it’s not about the course, the money, the sponsor, or how the tournament is run. Again it’s all about the scheduling, and players can’t play week in and week out. We are in the middle of a great run, starting at the Phoenix three weeks ago. On top of last week at Honda, there is the Players Championship next week, Valspar the week after, and the WGC-Match Play in three weeks. Then you have the Masters, a great stretch of golf, and maybe too much.

One thing to think about, no matter how good the folks that are running the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you will never substitute Arnold Palmer, who had a critical role in this event. The tournament and course had been his pride and joy for three decades since he bought the course in 1976 and had the Florida Citrus Open transferred to Bay Hill in 1979. Not only did Palmer tinker with the course each year to make it fresh, but Palmer also used to contact and write letters to players asking them to play. You just had to play in the event when you get a letter from Palmer. Byron Nelson used to do that for his tournament, and no matter what your thought about the course, you weren’t going to say no to either Palmer or Nelson. Down to the point that when players didn’t play, like Bubba Watson a couple of years ago, they would come over and meet with Palmer to explain their reason for being absent.

So, unfortunately, even though each week has a great event with powerful sponsors, some events won’t get all of the marquee names to play in. So it will be interesting how the Arnold Palmer Invitational will cope in the years to come. It’s evident that even with a purse of $12 million and a first-place check of $2.1 million, you just aren’t going to get everyone to play.

So how many of you had Sepp Straka on your bet sheets?

How many of you bet $5 on Sepp Straka the Wednesday before Honda? If you did, you would have gotten a price of +6000, which meant a $5 bet would have returned $305. Even on Saturday morning, when Straka was in sixth place, five shots back of tournament leader Daniel Berger, you could have gotten the price of +3000, meaning a $5 bet would have returned $150. Nobody saw Straka shooting 69 on Saturday and then a Sunday round of 64. But it took a final-round meltdown by Daniel Berger and Straka making birdie on three of his last five holes for Australia to win. Again there was no way to see this coming, Straka has played on the PGA Tour since 2019, and he never was in this kind of position to win a Tournament. We keep a stat in GolfStats on within 5 shots of the lead at the start of the final round, and for Straka and you can see he has not been in this position much.

But as we have said before, the PGA Tour is loaded with talent, and on any given week, about 75 different players could win. Going into the Honda, it wasn’t about the golf course, in three previous starts, he missed the cut was T-33rd and T-27th.  Straka did finish T-15th the week before, at Genesis, which was his best finish on the PGA Tour since finishing T-15th at the Wyndham Championship. Straka went into the final round in contention at the Corales Punta Cana Resort Championship a year ago, and he shot 72 in the final round to finish T-9th. Gosh, betters on DraftKings didn’t bet for Straka, in the main million dollar game, only 6.75% of the players made Straka one of their choices. On Saturday night in DraftKings final round game, 38.30% of the 11,765 players made Straka one of their six choices. The point is, finding winners on the PGA Tour is very tough, and this week is going to be tough again.

Who could be the next Sepp Straka to win, this week, we have to watch players like Cameron Young, who finished T-16th at the Honda, or Alex Noren, who finished T-5th at the Honda. Lee Hodges is another player to watch, he finished T-9th at the Honda. Others to watch, Chris Kirk was T-7th at Honda and T-14th at Phoenix. Beau Hossler has also been steady, finishing T-16th at Honda, just three weeks ago, he was 3rd at Pebble Beach. Who knows, even Adam Svensson could be the man, he was T-9th at Honda, one other name Shane Lowry has knocked on the door several times since winning the British Open almost three years ago. Who knows what could have happened if the skies didn’t open up on Sunday afternoon and hurt his chances of making a birdie on the final hole and sending the Honda into a playoff. So picking winners is really hard in golf.

Bryson woes continue

Bryson DeChambeau was entered into the Palmer, but Monday morning, he withdrew saying he is yet back to 100% health. It’s hard to believe how DeChambeau was the biggest news in golf just a year ago. He was my top pick for the Arnold Palmer and didn’t disappoint with his one-shot victory over Lee Westwood. The following week he came close to winning the Players Championship, finishing T-3rd and just two back of Justin Thomas, whose final round 68 vaulted him to the win. With the finish, DeChambeau was the hottest player in the game, but then things slowly eroded as he had several messy finishes at the Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. But when he stumbled at the BMW Championship in which he lost a six-hole grinder of a playoff to Patrick Cantlay, something seemed to crack. Yes, he played ok at the Tour Championship and had a 2-0-1 record at the Ryder Cup. But things had changed, he no longer talked to the media, and he was deemed reckless in his style of play. He garnished much of his fame on the length of his drives, but he was a prolific putter and had a deaf touch around the greens. Many questions his smarts, many times in 2021, he found himself in contention, and instead of just playing the fairway and green game, he still felt that bombing it away was the way to go. It wasn’t the way to go at the PGA Championship, and U.S. Open wayward drives cost him dearly.    But the total makeup of DeChambeau seemed to crack down the stretch of the BMW Championship when he missed some very makeable putts that would have avoided the playoff to Cantlay.  Then in the playoff, he missed putts that would have won it and succumbed when he missed a 12-footer on the sixth extra hole to match Cantlay’s birdie.

After the Ryder Cup, DeChambeau didn’t play until the Hero World Challenge finishing T-14th in a field of 20. DeChambeau was T-25th in the field of 38 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, then missed the cut at the Farmers. He flew 8,000 miles to Saudi Arabia to not only get a fast payday but shot 73 in the first round and withdrew and hasn’t been seen in a tournament since. Because he refuses to talk with the media, social media has had a field day explaining his poor play from the assumption that his intense training was causing his body to break to even being abducted by aliens who cast a spell on him. DeChambeau has been an easy choice for those making wagers; just don’t bet on him. But as the best in golf get-together this week at Bay Hill, DeChambeau will be in a different place as any thoughts of him winning the Masters erodes away. Be interesting to see what he does to change things around, we could listen to internet trolls who say he is finished and has lost his confidence, but I see it another way. In the course of DeChambeau’s playing days, he has had his stumbles. In his first full year on the PGA Tour in 2017, he played in 31 events and made 16 cuts. He had rough patches before in 2019 after finishing T-10th at the Sony Open, he didn’t have another top-ten for 12 events before finishing T-8th at the Travelers. In that period, he missed three straight cuts and after finishing T-2nd at the 3M Open, struggled the rest of the year. DeChambeau’s game is about peaks and valleys, and right now, he is at the bottom of a valley. Let’s see what happens, just like we did with Brooks Koepka, who has been injured for the last couple of years, DeChambeau has battled injury of late. Let’s wait and see what happens when he is 100% together again. I don’t think DeChambeau is going away or retiring from the game anytime soon, but again we have to give him some time.

Talking about the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship

Are you ready for some match play? It happens in three weeks, and players have this week and next to qualify. After the Players Championship, those in the top-64 of the world rankings are in. Ian Poulter is in the 64th position bubble, but we don’t know if everyone is playing. On top of Poulter on the bubble, I have to believe that #61 Brian Harman, #62 Alex Noren, and #63 Erik van Rooyen will be looking to play well the next two weeks so that they can play in Austin. Looking in will be #65 Robert MacIntyre, #66 Ryan Palmer, #67 Bernd Wiesberger, and #68 Maverick McNealy. Some other marquee names on the bubble include last week’s winner #83 Sepp Straka, #92 Jason Day, and #100 Lucas Glover.

In the last two months, we have seen a lot of movement up the rankings. Tom Hoge began the year 110th in the rankings. He has moved up to 40 and will play in the Match Play and the Masters. Seamus Power is another player guaranteed a spot in Austin starting the year 72nd and moving up to 47 in the rankings. Harold Varner III was 94th at the start of January, and thanks to his win at the Saudi International, he is 49 and will get a spot in Austin. Same with Cameron Young, who started the year 134th and is now at 51, he is guaranteed a spot in the Match Play. Making the most significant climb up the ladder is Farmers winner Luke List. He started the year 151st in the rankings and now sits 58th, he probably will get in, but anything could happen in the next couple of weeks.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Arnold Palmer Invitational

According to the PGA Tour, this will be the 57th Arnold Palmer Invitational, which started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open.  But if you look around, there is no big splash. You can’t find anywhere in any of the material that the tournament puts out anything raving about its 57th anniversary.

There is a good reason for that.

If you asked Arnold Palmer, he only counted the years when the event moved to Bay Hill, so this would be the 44th time this tournament has been played. The actual event did start in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, and it was barely surviving when Arnold Palmer and his associates took over in 1978.  They gave new life to the event by moving it to Bay Hill in 1979.  In the 43 years since it changed to the Bay Hill Club, the tournament has been elevated to a level that it’s considered one of the premiers stops on tour, as voted by the players.

Course information:

• Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Orlando, Fl.
• 7,454 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 73.9 rating and slope rating of 136 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay on the course and its members.

The average green size at Bay Hill is 6,500 square feet, which is a little over the PGA Tour average.  The course has 103 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill was 73.02, and it was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021.  The previous year, was 74.11 due to high winds all week.  It was the hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2020.  In 2019 the average was 72.38 as the course was ranked the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2018 the course played to a scoring average of 72.02, making it the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2017 Bay Hill was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 72.89 average.  In 2016 Bay Hill was the 28th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 71.48 average, which is a half a shot under par.  Great weather was the reason for the low scores with the lack of wind; you can see how challenging the course has been over the years.

In 2015 Bay Hill was the 36th hardest course, but in the previous years, when there was wind, in 2014, it was the 16th hardest course on Tour, playing to a 72.473 average, a half a shot over par when it was windy all week.  So you can see the difference between 2014 and 2015 just about a shot and a half.

In 2013 the Bay Hill was the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 72.928 average playing .928 stroke over par.

The course was initially designed and built by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee in 1960.

It’s funny how Arnold Palmer got associated with it. In 1948, 73 years ago, Palmer was playing college golf at Wake Forest, and they made a trip down to Orlando to play against Rollins College.  According to Orlando Sentinel writer Mike Bianchi, Palmer loved the area and the beauty of what Orlando was.  Orlando back then was still 21 years before DisneyWorld and was not considered a big area. Still, Palmer loved it so much he thought of transferring to Rollins College.  But he stayed at Wake Forest and ten years later became the top golfer in the world.  But Palmer still had Orlando in the back of his mind, and in 1965, those memories were rekindled.

In the early 1960s, when Bay Hill opened, Palmer and Jack Nicklaus played an exhibition tournament at the course, and the King was so attracted to Bay Hill that he got together a group of investors and leased the club with an option to buy it.  In January of 1976, the group purchased the course, and since then until his death, Palmer would spend most of the winter in a condo behind Bay Hill.  Palmer loved to tinker with the course. Since Palmer left the Champions tour and had more time on his hands around 2000, he spent lots of time making changes, probably the biggest coming in 2007 when he took the par 5, 4th and 16th holes and convert them into par 4s, thus reducing the par of the course to 70.  That didn’t last long as Palmer changed his mind again in 2010 and changed the par back on the 4th and 16 holes as the course went back to a par 72.

Until about eight years ago, when he started slowing down, Palmer would always tinker with something on the course, making small changes here and there, but there haven’t been any changes in seven years now.  Despite the club not tinkering with the course anymore, there is always one thing that is consistent each year, and that is rough, which is very high and difficult to get out of and helps bring scores up each year.  We can see a bit of a trend on, scores were high with the winners between 2012 and 2014 at 13 under par, but the two years Matt Every won, he was 13 under in 2014 and 19 under in 2015.  In 2016 Jason Day was 17 under par.

Bay Hill did receive a facelift before the 2016 event as all the greens on the course were re-grassed with Emerald Bermuda, which did make the greens roll more accurate and faster.  The fairways and tees were also re-grassed with Celebration bermudagrass.  One last changed was when they closely mowed areas around the green, which meant chipping and scrambling were more laborious than in past years. The scores hover right around that 15 under total, until severe weather brought the winning score down to 4 under in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton.  Last year Bryson DeChambeau won with a 11 under figure.  But with better weather, it’s guaranteed that the winning score will be around that 15 under figure.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Bay Hill:

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, based on data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Bay Hill was 73.02 and it was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021. The previous year, Bay Hill’s scoring average of 74.11 was the hardest course on the PGA Tour for 2020. The year before it was the 9th hardest with a 72.38 average. The course is very tough with 103 bunkers and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes. With the rough and hard greens it comes down to the elements and with wind, it makes the course a true brute. For this year it will be very nice all four days with only a trace of rain and temperatures in the mid-80s each day. The wind will be a factor starting on Friday, so look for an interesting weekend with tough conditions.

In looking at the stats for Bay Hill last year Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Proximity to Hole, and Rough Proximity is important. First, is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, last year Bay Hill ranked 13th hardest in Driving Accuracy and 5th in Greens in Regulation. In 2020 Bay Hill was 10th hardest in fairways hit, but 1st in greens hit. Last year’s winner Bryson DeCChambeau was T-25th in Driving Accuracy and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation which totaled to 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was T-33rd in fairways hit and T-9th in greens hit and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2019 Francesco Molinari was T-3rd in fairways hit and T-6th in greens hit and was 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-te-Green. 2018 winner Rory McIlroy was T-48th in fairways hit and T-45th in greens hit for an overall 7th ranking in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In Proximity to hole Bay Hill was 6th last year and 2nd in 2020. For 2019 it was 3rd and 13th in 2018, DeChambeau was T-54th last year while Hatton was 10th 2020. In 2019 Molinari was 18th in 2019 and McIlroy was 1st in 2018.
Now in Rough Proximity, Bay Hill ranked 4th last year and was 1st in 2020. For 2019 Bay Hill ranked 2nd and 3rd in 2018. DeChambeau was 35th last year while in 2020 Hatton was 12th. For 2019 Molinari was 15th and McIlroy was 32nd in 2018.
In our last critical category Putting inside Ten Feet, Bay Hill ranked 24th last year and 15th in 2020. For 2019 it was 32nd and 25th in 2018. DeChambeau ranked 21st in Strokes Gained putting and T-12th in Putting inside ten feet last year making 64 of 69 tries. In 2020 Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, as he was 21st in Putting inside 10 feet making 63 of 70 putts. Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting in 2019 and was 16th in Putting inside 10 feet making 60 of 65 putts. As for McIlory, he made his biggest gains in 2018 on the greens, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting as he was 2nd in Putting inside ten feet making 59 of 61 putts.

One thing about the greens, they are some of the best on the PGA Tour and with little undulations, lots of putts are made.
Last year DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting and 20th in total putting. Last year DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet and in and made 58. In 2020, Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-34th in total putting. In 2019, Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in total Putting. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches, and in the 56 putts, he had of seven feet or under he only missed one. In 2018 McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the true key for him winning. The same with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the true key for him winning. The same thing with the 2016 champion Jason Day. He was 6th in Strokes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one so you can see that you can not hit the ball that great but win, but it’s easier if you can hit the ball great.

Again, the weather is always the barometer for good play at Bay Hill

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years Bay Hill is always in the top-15, last year it ranked T-3rd.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin with shots from the fairway, last year it was 6th with each shot ending up 40 feet, 11 inches from the hole.

*Rough Proximity: Average length that a player hits to the pin from out of the rough. Showing how hard the rough is at Bay Hill it was the hardest course to get close to the hole from the rough in 2016, players were only able to average 51 feet, 2 inches on each shot from the rough. It was also ranked 1st in 2020 with the average ball ending up 54 feet, 4 inches from the hole. Last year it ranked 4th as players were only able to average 52 feet, 3 inches from the hole so it’s important to drive it well and keep it out of the rough.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you have to make these putts in order to win. In 2016 Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses ranked, while last year ranked 24th (16th hardest) out of 39 courses so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

104 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to get to all the stats of all 104 players.

DraftKings Picks & Historical totals

Of the 123 in the field, 107 have played at least once in the Arnold Palmer.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at Bay Hill since 2015:

• Rory McIlroy is 55 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Henrik Stenson is 47 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Justin Rose is 32 under in 36 rounds, playing 11 years
• Jason Day is 27 under in 29 rounds, playing 9 years
• Marc Leishman is 25 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Ian Poulter is 24 under in 44 rounds, playing 11 years
• Adam Scott is 23 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jason Kokrak is 22 under in 32 rounds, playing 9 years
• Kevin Na is 19 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Keegan Bradley is 17 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 14 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is 13 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Luke List is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Sungjae Im is 12 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Zach Johnson is 12 under in 46 rounds, playing 12 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 11 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Matthew Fitzpatrick is 11 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Charles Howell III is 11 under in 46 rounds, playing 12 years
• Sean O’Hair is 10 under in 32 rounds, playing 9 years
• Paul Casey is 10 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Chris Kirk is 9 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Carlos Ortiz is 6 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Keith Mitchell is 5 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Matt Wallace is 5 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Troy Merritt is 5 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Sergio Garcia is 5 under in 11 rounds, playing 3 years
• Adam Schenk is 3 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Rickie Fowler is 3 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Matt Jones is 3 under in 22 rounds, playing 7 years
• Will Zalatoris is 3 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Rory McIlroy is 55 under, playing 7 years (-7.9)
• Adam Scott is 23 under, playing 5 years (-4.6)
• Sungjae Im is 12 under, playing 3 years (-4.0)
• Henrik Stenson is 47 under, playing 12 years (-3.9)
• Jason Day is 27 under, playing 9 years (-3.0)
• Luke List is 12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
• Justin Rose is 32 under, playing 11 years (-2.9)
• Tommy Fleetwood is 14 under, playing 5 years (-2.8)
• Tyrrell Hatton is 13 under, playing 5 years (-2.6)
• Jason Kokrak is 22 under, playing 9 years (-2.4)
• Ian Poulter is 24 under, playing 11 years (-2.2)
• Marc Leishman is 25 under, playing 12 years (-2.1)
• Paul Casey is 10 under, playing 5 years (-2.0)
• Carlos Ortiz is 6 under, playing 3 years (-2.0)
• Kevin Na is 19 under, playing 10 years (-1.9)
• Keegan Bradley is 17 under, playing 10 years (-1.7)
• Keith Mitchell is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Matt Wallace is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Troy Merritt is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Sergio Garcia is 5 under, playing 3 years (-1.7)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 11 under, playing 7 years (-1.6)
• Matthew Fitzpatrick is 11 under, playing 7 years (-1.6)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,400
• Rory McIlroy – $11,100
• Viktor Holland – $10,800
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,600
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,300
• Sungjae Im – $9,900
• Will Zalatoris – $9,400
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,300
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,200
• Marc Leishman – $9,100
• Adam Scott- $9,000

Very interesting week and the top of the list has some people who could win this week.  But at the end of the day, we may be better served this week from some players at $9,100 and below.  First off is Jon Rahm at $11,400.  Now that is probably a mandatory selection since Rahm is the number one golfer and the fact that in the last 18 months Rahm has played in 32 events and has 20 top-tens.  Now that seems great on the surface but in that time period he only has won once at the U.S. Open.  He does have three runner-ups and three top-3 finishes but when you pay over $11,000 you expect something great.  Now he did finish T-3rd at the Farmers, but since he was T-10th at Phoenix and T-21st at Genesis.  He also has never played at Bay Hill so I can’t recommend taking Rahm.  As for Rory McIlroy at $11,100, he has shown a knack of playing well at Bay Hill.  He has been in the top-ten in five straight Bay Hill starts including T-10th last year and won in 2018 so yes he is worth the money.  As for Viktor Holland at $10,800, it’s probably best to save that money, he has a dodgy past at Bay Hill finishing T-40th in 2019, T-42nd in 2020 and T-49th last year.  I realize he was T-4th in his last start at Genesis, but the previous week missed the cut at Phoenix so best to hold off on him.  Scottie Scheffler at $10,600 has some good points, only played at Bay Hill once and was T-15th in 2020.  His last two starts he was T-7th at Genesis and won at Phoenix, so on paper it sounds good.  But digging deeper into his record, we don’t know if this Texan can master courses in Florida, this is only his fifth Floridan start and his best finish was Bay Hill.  So it may be worth saving the high price on him until he shows he can play in Florida.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,300 seems good, he is a ball-striker so he should do good at Bay Hill?  Hard to explain his Bay Hill record, only one top-ten in seven starts T-6th in 2016.  In 19 Floridian starts only three top-ten best being his T-6th at Palmer so maybe this isn’t a good week for him.  Sungjae Im at $9,900 seems good, he was T-3rd in 2019, 3rd in 2020 and T-21st in 2021 but I worry about him missing the cut last week at the Honda, I would pass on him.  Now I am not going to pass on Will Zalatoris at $9,400, he was T-10th at Bay Hill last year and after a bout with COVID I think he will be find.  In his only start back from COVID was T-26th at Genesis.  In betting with Zalatoris remember he has a balky putter but one of the keys of playing well at Bay Hill if you hit the ball great you can still win putting poorly.  We are now getting into the heart of people to pick, I like Tyrrell Hatton at $9,300, his first PGA Tour win came at the Arnold Palmer in 2020, was T-4th in 2017 and T-21st last year.  Hasn’t played much lately but was T-4th at Dubai last month.  I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick at $9,200, he has played well at Bay Hill, was T-10th last year,  T-9th in 2020 and 2nd in 2019.  Right when his game was sharp he was struck down with the flu and had to withdraw at Genesis, I really like Matthew.  Another great pick is Marc Leishman at $9,100.   Has had some great times at Bay Hill, in his last five starts won in 2017, T-7th in ’18, T-23rd in ’19 and 2nd in 2021, in 2022 his game has been solid was T-15th in his last start at Genesis.  As for Adam Scott at $9,000 he hasn’t done well lately at Bay Hill and has not had anything of substance since winning the Genesis two years ago and finishing T-2nd at Wyndham six months ago.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Arnold Palmer on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Bay Hill starts:

• Ian Poulter made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Rory McIlroy made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,100.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,300.
• Tyrrell Hatton made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.
• Luke List made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Keith Mitchell made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Talor Gooch made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Sungjae Im made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Matt Wallace made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Troy Merritt made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Viktor Hovland made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,800.
• Nick Watney made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Beau Hossler made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Zach Johnson made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Charles Howell III made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Martin Laird made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Rickie Fowler made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Keegan Bradley made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Billy Horschel made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Patrick Rodgers made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Kevin Na made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Adam Scott made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Paul Casey made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Cameron Tringale made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Sean O’Hair made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Jason Day made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Jason Kokrak made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Kevin Streelman made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Henrik Stenson made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Marc Leishman made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
• Sam Burns made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Chez Reavie made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Brandt Snedeker made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Hudson Swafford made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Pat Perez made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.

• (Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Has I have said above, the difference in failing or winning comes down to some of these picks.  First is Billy Horschel at $8,900, now has not shown a liking for Bay Hill in nine starts his best finish is T-13th.  But he has been very consistent of late, was T-16th last week at Honda, T-6th at Phoenix and T-11th at Farmers, this is a player that is ready to shine.  Now many will think Sam Burns at $8,800 is a good buy, he has not only struggled at Bay Hill but of late has missed the cut at Genesis, Phoenix and Farmers.  So best to pass on him.  Max Homa at $8,700 is a player to watch, he was T-10th at Bay Hill last year and in his last two starts was T-10th at Genesis and T-14th at Phoenix.  Now my best pick of the week is Jason Kokrak at $8,400, he has four top-tens in nine Bay Hill starts including a T-8th last year, but I like the fact that Kokrak wins on courses like Bay Hill.  He has had two average starts of late T-26th at Genesis and T-17th at Sony but I think he is ready to bust things and play win again.  Sergio Garcia at $8,100 is also a guy to pick, why he hasn’t played at Bay Hill since 2013 is a mystery to me, in 12 Bay Hill starts he has six top-tens and has shown some good play with a T-7th at Mayakoba and T-12th at Dubai.  Another great pick at $8,100 is Keith Mitchell, in three Bay Hill starts was T-6th in 2019, T-5th in 2020 and T-43rd last year.  At Honda last week he shot 69-68 over the weekend to move into a T-9th, this is after a T-10th at Phoenix, watch him.  Jason Day at $7,900 is worth the price, he won at Bay Hill in 2016 and was T-3rd at Farmers and T-24th at Pebble with a closing round of 74.  Gary Woodland is a player to watch, this week he is $7,800 and was T-5th last week at the Honda.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,700 is a great dark horse, was 7th at Bay Hill last year and T-18th in 2020.  Was T-14th at Pebble and T-25th last week at Honda. Seamus Power at $7,600 is another to watch, playing Bay Hill for the first time yes he missed the cut at Genesis and Phoenix, but played well before then and with some time off to visit Ireland he could be ready to go again.  We close with three $7,500 players to take, But Chris Kirk, Luke List and Cameron Young show some promise.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Gosh we picked clean the $7,500 to $8,900 price range, are there any bargains?  Kevin Na at $7,400 is worth the money, he was T02nd at Bay Hill in 2010, T-4th in 2012 and T-6th in 2015.  Hasn’t played as well but his game is like Jason Kokrak ready to win on shotmaker courses.  Tom Hoge at $7,300 is also good choice, was T-15th at Bay Hill in 2020, look for him to get things back together after his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach.  Ian Poulter who is $7,200 is looking to get into the Players and Match Play so he is very motivated in playing well this week.  At worst he will make the cut and get you lot’s of points.  The same with Lee Westwood at $7,100, he finished 2nd last year and feel he will do well.  Last week he finished T-42nd and earned 52 DraftKing points, he can do the same this week.  The same with Adam Svensson at $6,700, he is playing Bay Hill for the first time but he finished T-9th last week at Honda and earned 79 DraftKing points.  Same with Lee Hodges at $6,700, he finished T-9th at Honda and earned 73 DraftKing points.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Key stat for the winner:

A Bay Hill stat:

It’s said that ball-striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn’t the case at Bay Hill in which hitting lots of greens is essential. Between 1997 and 2008 there wasn’t a winner that didn’t finish out of the top-20 of greens hit for the week.  In 2009 Tiger Woods changed that when he finished T50th, but since then eight of the last 12 winners were in the top-20, including 2017 champion Marc Leishman who led the greens hit category  Last years winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd hitting 50 of 72 greens, in 2020 Tyrrell Hatton was T-9th in hitting 42 of 72 greens while in 2019 Francesco Molinari was T-6th hitting 48 of the 72 greens.

Another key stat:

Now it’s easy to point out how the winners have been in greens hit but what has the trend been for everyone in the field?  The pattern is that more folks are hitting more greens.  In 2009, Bay Hill had the hardest greens to hit.  In a way wind helped make that stat, the weekend saw high winds with gust up to 30 mph, but only 55.02 of the greens were hit that year.  The next year it jumped to 61.25% and was ranked 9th, and the number has stayed about the same with it’s ranking going up, in 2011 it ranked 15th on the PGA Tour.  In 2012 it climbed to 20th and then 16th in 2013.  In 2014 it ranked 23rd and more players hit more greens with the average going up again to 64.00%.  With the lack of wind and great weather 2015 was a banner year for the players as they hit 68.41% making it the 35th highest on the PGA Tour.  In 2016 it was the 14th hardest with a field average of 60.98, the least amount since 2009.  In 2017 the course was the 7th hardest with a field average of 58.71, while in 2018 with the lack of wind the course was the 17th hardest on tour with an average of 50.53.  In 2020 the course was the hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 74.11 average, in 2019 Bay Hill was the 5th hardest with an average of 57.64.  Last year the course was 5th hardest in greens hit as the field hit 56.84 as the course played to a 73.02 average, 9th hardest on tour.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• This is the last tournament before the Players Championship, which is the most important event on the PGA Tour.  Making this month even more important, the Match Play is three weeks away and the Masters five weeks away.
• Kenny Perry had a perfect combination of being ranked fourth in both driving distance and accuracy in 2005.  Look for accuracy to once again prevail and look for another player like Perry that combines straight driving with a bit of length.  So how do we determine a player like this?  Look at the total driving stat which combines both distance rank and accuracy rank to help determine your winner.  You can find this year’s total driving stats in our GOLFIQ stat section.
• Unimportant stat: In eight of the last 22 years Tiger Woods has been the winner. So what does that mean?  In many tournaments, experience seems to be important, but not at Bay Hill.   Since 1979, 13 of the winners either became first-time winners or had only won once before, just like 2017 champion Marc Leishman who claimed his second PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer.  Matt Every won for the first time at Bay Hill in 2014 (then winning for the second time in 2015), Martin Laird in 2011, Rod Pampling in 2006 and Chad Campbell in 2004.  But on the other side of the coin, the tournament has had some great players winning like 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, 2016 champion Jason Day, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crenshaw, Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Paul Azinger, Payne Stewart, Fuzzy Zoeller and Tiger Woods.
• Birdies and patience are essential at Bay Hill. On most courses, the norm is making lots of birdies to keep pace, but at Bay Hill pars are just as important.
• One thing for sure is that the odds are quite good that the winner will be from either Florida and the Orlando area.  Of the 120 in the field this week, a quarter of the field live in Florida with a dozen or so having ties in the Orlando area.
• The weather has been pretty good the last couple of days in Florida, and the forecast calls for that continuing.  Each day will be perfect with no rain and sunny skies with temperature in the mid ot high 80s.  Wind will be light on Thursday and pick up to 12 mph on Friday, then between 13 and 16 mph over the weekend. In doing your picks, those playing late on Thursday and early on Friday will have an advantage because of the winds.