BlogPuerto Rico Open Preview and Picks

Things you need to know about the Puerto Rico Open

This will be the 13th Puerto Rico tournament got started in 2008.  This has always been a tournament about second-tier players, giving opportunities to those that didn’t qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player to get himself full status with a win.  Unfortunately, the winner gets just about every Adelaide that is given to a regular winner except for one important invite, to the Masters.  Augusta won’t extend an invite to the winner in Puerto Rico this week.  Another snub, the new Ryder Cup list won’t include money earned this year.

Course information:

• Grand Reserve Country Club
• Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
• 7,506 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Don’t let the name fool you, seven years ago, this course was named Trump International.  But that was in name only, Trump just managed things, and when the property went into bankruptcy, so did the Trump name.  The course has a 77.7 rating and a slope rating of 135 from the championship tees. The course is public and also sells local memberships.
• Last year Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.23 and was the 28th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2020, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 70.64 and was the 31st hardest course on tour. In 2015 this course was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 72.570 average (high average due to high winds all four days).
• The course is part of a 36 hole complex that was built in 2004 by Tom Kite.  The championship course, which is the lakes and ocean nines, is used for the championship. The 18 hole is flat, with 13 of the 18 holes having water in play for the professionals.  There are 62 bunkers, and the greens are 6,000 square feet, which is the average size.  The course has a special grass on it, SeaDwarf Paspalum, which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low qualify of water to survive.  The course is very tough for the average player, while it’s very manageable for the pros that will play it this week.  Since the course has opened, it’s gotten the reputation as the best course in Puerto Rico.  What makes this course play tough is the weather.  If it’s windy, then the course will play tough.  This year weather will play a factor this week, it will be warm with temperatures in the low 80s, but with showers all day Thursday and Scattered Thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  More bad news, winds will kick up as each day will see an average of 14 to 18 mph wind.

DraftKings tips

It’s back to a regular tournament, and I will say this.  With the field the way it is, the course playing tough, one of the biggest items you should think about is picking six guys that will make the cut.  This will be the hardest event in 2020 to pick players who will participate in four rounds.  So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Florida, and players that have done poorly out west may all of a sudden find their game on Bermuda greens heat, humidity, and wind.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Matthias Schwab – $10,600
• Mark Hubbard – $10,300
• John Huh – $10,000
• Kurt Kitayama – $9,800
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,700
• David Lipsky – $9,600
• Joseph Bramlett – $9,500
• Ryan Armour – $9,400
• Brian Stuard – $9,300
• Peter Uihlein – $9,200
• Victor Perez – $9,100
• Nate Lashley – $9,000

What makes this event so tough is that a good amount of the players in the field, the average betters, have never bet on them.  We also had to be careful, a Rafael Cabrera-Bello or a Kurt Kitayama or Matthias Schwab could struggle on the PGA or European Tour, but this week can shine.  So the key is to find guys that aren’t playing badly, they just can’t keep up on the PGA Tour, players that do well on a course with lots of wind.

Right off the bat, have to decide on Matthias Schwab who is the top dog at $11,600.  The first problem, he has never played in this event and has no history.  The good news, Schwab has been very consistent on both the European and PGA Tour.  Just last week he had his best finish on the PGA Tour in two years with a T-7th at Honda.  Schwab is not a bad player and yes you can pick him but I am going to look for a cheaper option.  Next up is Mark Hubbard at $10,300, he has played in Puerto Rico three times and his best finish was t-15th.  He has had an up and down year, the good news is he was 15th last week at the Honda.  Still, he is too much money so I will pass on him.  John Huh at $10,000 is a possibility, he has never played in Puerto Rico, but he has a lot of experience, did win the 2012 Mayakoba Golf Classic.  He also played well at the Honda last week finishing T-9th so he comes into this week on a good note.  We go into a couple of players I really like, first Kurt Kitayama – $9,800.  He played once in Puerto Rico finishing T-17th in 2017.  Now he has struggled on the PGA Tour in 2022, going into the Honda after missing five cuts in a row.  But he played well at the Honda, finishing T-3rd and he played well in the final round.  I think that will help him and he will play well this week.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $9,700 is my workhorse this week, he has played twice in Puerto Rico finishing T-24th in 2014 and T-10th in 2015.  Also, think his game is good now, he was T-2nd at Abu Dhabi and he did win in October at the Spanish Open.  David Lipsky at $9,600 is a good player from Europe, he will be playing for the first time in Puerto Rico.  He has had mixed results after getting his PGA Tour card via the Korn Ferry Playoffs.  In 12 starts on the PGA Tour he has only made five cuts his best finish was T-14th at the American Express, he played at Honda and was T-55th.  Joseph Bramlett at $9,500 has played twice in Puerto Rico, was T-9th in 2020, and T-49th in 2021.  On the PGA Tour has had mixed results, his best finish was T-20th at the Sony Open which is a good sign for possibly playing well on another oceanside course.  Ryan Armour at $9,400 is a past PGA Tour winner and a veteran player.  He has played three times in Puerto Rico his best finish was T-15th in 2008.  He has played a limited schedule this year, also finished T-20th at the Sony Open, he missed the cut last week at the Honda.  Brian Stuard at $9,300 is a good choice, in four starts in Puerto Rico was T-4th in 2013.  After a slow start to his 2022 season, has made four cuts in a row and was T-9th at Honda last week.  Peter Uihlein at $9,200 is also a good pick, he has played seven times at Puerto Rico and was T-6th in 2013 and T-5th in 2017.  He has struggled this year but was T-17th at the Lecom Suncoast Classic and T-55th last week at the Honda.  Victor Perez at $9,100 is a tough pick, he hasn’t played in Puerto Rico and in 2022 played twice finishing T-58th at Abu Dhabi and T-60th at Dubai.  He is a good player with a lot of experience, last year was 4th at the WGC-Dell Match Play.  Nate Lashley at $9,000 is a good choice, he was t-8th in his only Puerto Rico start in 2019 but has been off and on.  One thing that strikes me, in 2021 he was 4th at the Corales Puntacan Championship  Have to worry he comes into this week missing four cuts in his last five starts.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Honestly, I think the winner will come out of this batch of players.  I like Chase Seiffert at $8,700 he was T-15th in Puerto Rico last year and T-52nd in 2020.  This year has been up and down, he was T-25th at Honda last week.  Bronson Burgoon at $8,300 is a player with experience, has played two at Puerto Rico, his best finish was T-39th last year.  Again nothing special about his 2022 season, was T-66th last week in the Honda.  Brice Garnett is a good choice at $8,100, he has played five times in Puerto Rico and his best finish was T-5th last year.  Like everyone else has been up and down in 2022, he did miss the cut last week at the Honda.  Scott Brown at $7,900 is a good choice because you can rely on him to make the cut, in 9 Puerto Rico starts has made all nine cuts.  He won in 2013 and has been in the top-ten five times, last year was T-53rd.  I like that he was T-8th at the Bahamas Great Exuma, a course just like Grand Reserve.  Kevin Chappell at $7,800 is worth a look, he has a lot of experience but injures have bogged him down.  He has missed the cut twice in Puerto Rico, but the last time was in 2013.  Has played ok and made four cuts in his last five starts, was T-43rd at Phoenix.  Brandon Wu at $7,600 is also worth watching, he was T-7th last year in his only Puerto Rico start.  But that is where things end, in 11 starts in 2022 he only has made one cut finishing T-34th at Bermuda.  Have to take a chance on him despite all of his hardships.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat, I like Luke Donald at $7,300.  He played once in Puerto Rico finishing T-26th in 2016.  He has made only four cuts in eight starts, yes he has missed his last two cuts but was T-27th at Sony.  Kelly Kraft at $7,300 is also someone to watch, he played once in Puerto Rico finishing T-15th in 2016.  Again a lot of missed cuts this year but was T-28th at Pebble.  Aaron Baddeley at $7,000 is someone to think about, was T-8th at Puerto Rica in 2016, T-2nd in 2019, and T-30th last year.  Has struggled in 2022 but like that he is a good putter and could do well this week.  Last is Martin Trainer at $6,900, he won in Puerto Rico in 2019 but has missed a lot of cuts.  The good news is he was T-5th at Houston so maybe Puerto Rico will bring out the good in his game.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• So what key stats is important at Grand Reserve?  Players that hit it long tend to do better, but the course is a bomber’s paradise.  Because of the high winds that hit the course, hitting greens is tough, last year it was the 233rd hardest in greens hit, in 2020 was 26th in 2019, it was 18th, in 2017, it was 49th, in 2016, it was 26th, in 2015, it was the 20th hardest while in 2014 it was the 38th hardest.  In looking at all the stats other than driving distance, nothing else stands out.
• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  Since it’s a second-tier event, it’s a combination of a PGA Tour and a Korn Ferry Tour.  So there are no real favorites because there are no true marquee players that you know of.  One thing of the past winners, done of them achieved great success on the PGA Tour, so this is for many just a stepping stone to get full-time access to the PGA Tour.  Yes, Tony Finau was the winner in 2016 but only has won once since, and in 2020 Viktor Hovland broke the mold by winning in Puerto Rico and winning again on the PGA Tour at Mayakoba. Last year Branden Grace won and has played well since finishing T-2nd at Wyndham, 4th at Memorial, and T-7th at the U.S. Open.  This year was T-7th in the Zozo Championship.
• Since 2013, they collected stats, hard to find what type of player wins.  So the key is to look at two things, first past results on this course and how they are playing going into the event.  One thing about the winners is that they hit many greens, and six of the last eight were in the top ten in Greens in Regulation. Last year’s winner Branden Grace was T-3rd in greens hit.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.