BlogThe Players Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How time flies fast. To think that a year ago, golf was getting over COVID-19. At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was a big deal. Dustin Johnson was considered the best player in the world, the PGA Tour shocked the world in raising first place at the Players from $2.25 million to $2.7 million. A year ago, Phil Mickelson was probably the most popular player active on tour, and the thought of Hideki Matsuyama or Scottie Scheffler being the best players in the world was an absurd thought.

But in the year since, more people feel that Scheffler and Matsuyama have brighter futures than DeChambeau, Mickelson, or Johnson. Again, the first-place check of $3.6 million awaits the winner of this week’s Players Championship. Showing you how shocking that figure of $3.6 million is, in 1997, the total purse of the Players Championship was $3.5 million.

Golf is a much different game now. Gambling has become significant, and this week for pick your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events to pick winners on. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece and a different course year in and year out. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone that can say they know who the right horse will be this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 39 times that the Players have been played, only four have won it twice, Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, and Tiger Woods. Of all the tournaments played for more than 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship is the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion hasn’t won. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course.

Give you an example of how you can’t count anyone as a favorite, Rory McIlroy won in 2019, and when he was defending champion last year, he missed the cut. Showing it’s hard to pick, McIlroy won in 2019, and the previous year he missed the cut. The same with Jason Day, who won the Players in 2016, the prior year he missed the cut, and in five previous visits to The Players before the win, he missed the cut three of the five years. Last year’s winner Justin Thomas had played in five previous Players and only had one top-ten, so you couldn’t say he was a “horse for the course.” We can say the same for World Number one golfer Jon Rahm, he has played at the Players four times and last year was the first time in the top ten, he finished T-9th. Last year Lee Westwood finished 2nd, in 15 starts, it was his sixth top-10 but still, he has no wins. The most top-tens by anyone in the field is Sergio Garcia with seven, he won the Players back in 2008. Last year he was T-9th. Look at one of the best young players, 7th ranked Xander Schauffele. After finishing T-2nd in his first start in 2018, he missed the cut in 2019 and last year in his next two starts. Talking about top-ranked players globally, you can’t find a player with more honors than Dustin Johnson, who has won two majors and the FedExCup race in 2020. Johnson has played in 12 Players and only has one top-ten, a T-5th in 2019. Showing how tough of a time Johnson has had at TPC Sawgrass, in those 12 starts, he has only been in the top-25 just three times.

The list of 34 champions is awe-inspiring as many of the best golfers of the last 40 years has won the Players. Still, the TPC Sawgrass has this amazing aurora in which we can say that there has never been anyone or a set of golfers that have dominated over TPC Sawgrass. The term “Horses for Courses” is a gambling term used in golf, indicating those golfers do their best on specific courses. Just look at Tiger Woods. He won nine times at Torrey Pines, eight times at Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club, and five times at Augusta National, Cog Hill, and Muirfield Village. Yes, he won The Players twice, but in 19 starts, he only has five top-tens and the two victories to show that even the best in the world has problems playing the course.

Looking at the world’s best players, Jack Nicklaus played at TPC Sawgrass ten times and never finished higher than T-17th. Tiger Woods did win twice and was runner-up in 2000. But in his other 16 starts, he only had two top-ten and just six top-20 finishes, which showed that Tiger might have won twice but had a lot of tough times at Sawgrass. The point to all of this is to show that The Players Championship is the hardest of all events to pick a winner. There is no Horse for this course, and even though some of the top names in golf like Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Nick Price, Davis Love III, and Fred Couples have won, we have also seen players like Craig Perks, Wi Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, and Stephen Ames win in the last 16 years.

Who is hot right now

Have to say that Scottie Scheffler is the hottest player in golf, in four weeks, he has won at Phoenix and the Palmer. His other start was T-7th at the Genesis. Another hot player is Billy Horschel, who has played four times in six weeks, finishing T-11th at the Farmers, T-6th at Phoenix, T-16th at the Honda, and T-2nd last week at the Palmer. He should have won the Palmer but shot 75 in the final round. He will be looking to make up this week at the Players. Defending champion Justin Thomas is also red hot, in his last two starts, he was T-8th at Phoenix and 6th at the Genesis. It’s a bit surprising that he hasn’t played the previous two weeks, maybe it was more important for him to attend Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game, which turned into a sad loss to North Carolina. So Thomas should be ready to go and fresh from some time away from golf. The hottest player right now has to be Victor Hovland. He has won three times in the last four months at Mayakoba in November, the Hero World Challenge in December, and the Dubai Desert Classic at the end of January. Since then, he missed the cut in Phoenix but finished T-4th at the Genesis and T-2nd at the Palmer, so he is ready to go. We also have to watch Daniel Berger, who was 4th at the Honda and should have won that week. Chris Kirk is playing well, he was T-14th at Phoenix, T-7th at Honda, and T-5th at the Palmer. Also, watch Matt Fitzpatrick, he was T-6th at Pebble, T-10th at Phoenix, and T-9th at the Palmer. So don’t be surprised to see any of them winning this week.

We are talking about those going from hot to ice cold.

Going into Arnold Palmer, one of the hottest players in golf was Seamus Power. He won over the summer at the Barbasol Championship and then starting at the Bermuda Championship, went on a tear. He was T-12th in Bermuda, T-11th at Mayakoba, and T-4th at the RSM Classic. He was T-15th at the Sentry TofC, T-3rd at the Sony Open, T-14th at the American Express then T-9th at Pebble Beach. In that span, he was 210th in the rankings before the Barbasol win and climbed to 45th at the start of February. He was on track for getting a top-50 Masters invite, but since then, he missed the cut at Phoenix, Genesis, and Palmer and now has to sweet it out, staying in the top-50.

Another player having some problems is Hideki Matsuyama. He was on cloud nine after his win at the Sony Open, but after that was T-30th at the Farmers, T-8th at Phoenix, T-39th at Genesis, and T-20th at the Palmer. Also, have to wonder about Will Zalatoris, he was hot after finishing T-6th at the American Express and 2nd at the Farmers. But after that, he got COVID and took two weeks off. In his return, he was T-26th at the Genesis and T-38th at the Palmer, and we have to wonder if he can bounce back. Sungjae Im was looking good coming into the Florida portion of the tour. Last year he played great, so the thought after he finished T-8th at Sentry, T-11th at the American Express, and T-6th at Farmers that he would play great. But that didn’t happen, he was T-33rd at the Genesis, missed the cut at Honda, and T-20th at the Palmer. The biggest fall from grace comes from Hudson Swafford, who won the American Express, and the thought was he would play great after that. But that never happened as he missed the cut at the Farmers, Was T-60th at Phoenix, and missed the cut at Honda and the Palmer. So for these players, it’s best to forget about them this week.

Viktor Hovland. After winning at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December, he finished T-31st at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and then went crazy. At the Farmers, he shot 70-65-73-71 to finish T-2nd, five shots back of winner Patrick Reed. The following week he flew around the world to play in the Saudi International and, thanks to four rounds in the 60s, finished T-6th four shots back of winner Dustin Johnson. After taking a week off, he shot rounds of 71-69-70-67 at Riviera to finish T-5th at the Genesis Invitational. The next week at the WGC-Workday at Concession, he was runner-up to Collin Morikawa. The following week at the Palmer, he started with rounds of 69-68 and was T-3rd going into the weekend. But on Saturday, he hit a wall, making six bogeys and a double to shot 77, and the next day had three double bogeys in a round of 78 to finish T-49th. It was a big crash, nothing that was explained but going on further, you have to wonder if things could be amused and his excellent play could be finished for a bit. Last year, Hovland shot a first-round 68, so he knows how to play well at TPC Sawgrass, but you have to think that maybe Hovland needs a rest to recharge the batteries.

Could Collin Morikawa be the guy this week?

His game was great three weeks ago at the Genesis when he finished T-2nd. Yes, he struggled at Dubai, finishing T-18th and T-62nd at Abu Dhabi, but was T-5th at Sentry and Hero and won Dubai’s DP World Tour Championship. He is playing great, and after his win last year at the WGC-Workday Concession, we saw that he could play well and win in Florida. So don’t be surprised to see him winning this week at the Players.

What about Dustin Johnson?

Dustin Johnson ended 2021 on a high note, finishing T-6th at the BMW and T-8th at the Tour Championship. He was flawless in the Ryder Cup-winning all five matches, so the thought was that he would rip through 2022. First of all, he has only played in four events around the world, his best finish was T-8th at the Saudi International. But after missing the cut at the Genesis, we all wonder if he is interested in golf anymore. We know he has been playing less, but he shows a lack of being at the top of his game. He comes into this week on a course he has struggled on, and I have to wonder if his game can improve in time for the Masters.

Webb Simpson back 

All last year something seemed to be wrong with Webb Simpson. After finishing T-4th at the Sony and T-6th at the WGC-Workday Concession, he withdrew from the Wells Fargo, his hometown event with some neck pain. He got some treatment, he even finished T-7th at the Wyndham, but things just weren’t right. He made some visits to doctors, and he was diagnosed with a herniated disc in his neck at the start of the year. After finishing T-61st at the Sony Open, he came home. He was put under a laborious rehabilitation process and couldn’t hit balls until last week. Even then, he couldn’t hit more than 40 shots a day, so he is still working on things.

The original diagnosis was for eight weeks of rehab, but Simpson worked hard to come back at the Players, a tournament he won in 2018. Simpson is now hoping to be able to play pain-free. So for those fans looking at Webb Simpson, I would wait for a few more starts and see, maybe his game can be back in time for the Masters.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker North America, Vovada.  They give winning odds plus top-five and first round leader odds.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

The season is almost half over. 

It may be early March, but we are playing the 20th of 47 events on tour for the year.  So it’s hard to believe that the golf year is just about halfway over.  Over the course of the next 24 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, along with one WGC event and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 48th edition, which has been played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Other than the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf.  In looking at the field the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf gets more top-100 ranked players, the PGA Championship.  The big news of changing the date of the event is what will be different for the players.  How will the course play this year?  Will it be firm and fast as officials hope?  The weather will be wet this year, so officials will have trouble getting the course fast. Another thing that will be different this week, the wind will be high this week with gusts up to 35 mph.  So look high scores as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

Many may feel that it takes a lot of experience to win the Players? Since the event moved to the Stadium course, 18 different players in their 20s have won, including defending champion Justin Thomas, 2019 champion Rory McIlory, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim, 2016 champion Jason Day and 2015 winner Rickie Fowler.  The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Fowler in 2015, Day in 2016, Kim in 2017 and Rory in 2019.  I also bring up guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson, and Tim Clark, who have also won so that anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,189 yards     Par 36-36–72

TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration bermudagrass while the rough is 419 bermudaGrass.  The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa in it which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.04 average last year and was 16th toughest course on tour.

Here is a look at how hard TPC Sawgrass has played over the years.

Rank compared to

Year  Scoring avg    other courses

• 2021       72.421          16th
• 2019       71.513          23rd
• 2018       71.409          29th
• 2017       73.289           5th
• 2016       72.055          19th
• 2015       72.083          18th
• 2014       72.155          25th
• 2013       72.323          19th
• 2012       72.466          19th
• 2011       72.000          23rd
• 2010       71.804          28th

The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982.  That year the course was very “raw” with a lot of complaints from the players that the greens and landing areas had too much slope.  Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years improvements have made the course more “player-friendly”.

Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players didn’t care much about to one of the most loved, but most robust courses on Tour.  With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course went through an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways, and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system just like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.

At the same time, 122 yards was added to the course and the rough was Bermuda instead of rye.

With all of this, plus the new clubhouse, it gave the Players a new dimension in making it one of the best tournaments in the world, with the possibility of it one day being considered a major.

A couple of things to know, the average green size is 4,500 which is small and makes the targets harder.  With small greens that place more emphasis on shotmaking, but you have to be useful in getting it up and down.  Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pro’s only comes into play on 11 holes. There are a total of 92 bunkers around the course along with a lot of waste areas in the fairways.

One other thing, in 2018 and in 2017 the course played to a yardage of 7,189 which is 26 yards shorter than in 2016 before the 12th hole got changed.

A look at the winners of the Players at TPC Sawgrass:

34 have won the 39 Players Championship since the event moved to its permanent home of TPC Sawgrass.  Of those 34 champions they have….

• *Played in 14,672 PGA Tour events in their careers
• *Won a total of $1,019,269,807. Yes over billion dollars have been won by the 34 winners
• *With a total of $65.2 million being won at the Players
• *The 34 have won a total of 457 times on the PGA Tour
• *While 20 of the 34 won a total of 51 major championships
• *Seven of the 34 are members of the World Golf Hall of Fame
• *Ten of the 34 winners spent a total of 1,250 weeks as world number one.
• *(Woods 683 weeks, Greg Norman 311, Rory McIlory 106, Jason Day 51, Nick Price 44, Fred Couples 16, David Duval 15, Adam Scott 11, Martin Kaymer 8, and Justin Thomas 5 weeks).
• *Of the winners of the Players only two won their first event at the Players, Craig Perks and Tim Clark. For Perks, it was his only win on the PGA Tour while Clark won again four years later.
• *Of the 34 winners, these nine did it on their second start: Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Stephen Ames, Steve Elkington, and Si Woo Kim.
• *Only three made the Players their last PGA Tour victory: Jerry Pate, Craig Perks, K.J. Choi, and Justin Thomas.

In talking about those that have won at the Players, it’s interesting to note that the new breed of winners, those at the top of the world rankings seem to struggle at the Players.  Of the top ten, only #6 Rory McIlory and #8 Justin Thomas has won at TPC Sawgrass.  Here is what has happened to all ten:

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Sawgrass.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, based on data from last year’s Players Championship, and using data from all the field players with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
In 2019 the Players Championship returned to its March date, thinking that the course would have more bite to it with March winds. When it was played in May, the course played differently due to the heat but mostly the lack of winds. Between 2013 and 2018, the course only played tough once, in 2017 when all four days saw the wind blowing 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph over the weekend. The course played to a 73.29 average, and it was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The next year in 2018, a combination of low winds, lots of thunderstorms, and rain help make the course play to a 71.41 scoring average, the lowest the course has ever played in its history. So it was essential to change dates, and even though they did change dates in 2019 and each day saw winds in the 8 to 20 mph area, scoring was still low, with the average being 71.51, which ranked T-23rd.
Still, the weather is one of the things that makes TPC Sawgrass unique, weather and wind. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic, and if the wind blows, it plays tough. When course architect Pete Dye was still alive he said many times over the last 40 years of his life that he kept in the back of his mind in designing the holes was the March winds. Each hole is challenging with water on every one of them, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, and 18. Bunkering is also challenging, along with chipping as most of the greens are raised, so a shot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year, it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982 and 2006. It was played in March when conditions were different due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed from 2007 to May, winds decreased, and it was a lot warmer. You could say that the change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. So with the tournament back to March, look for drastically different conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast for this week, we know that weather will be a factor this year. Thunderstorms are in the forecast every day from Tuesday through Saturday, with mostly sunny conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s each day but the weather is not going to be great. Winds will be blowing around 11 to 14 mph on Thursday and Friday, but Saturday is supposed to be really bad. Not only is it supposed to rain all day, but look for winds in the neighborhood of 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. So it will be wild this year. Now Sunday is supposed to be rain-free, but winds will still be blowing between 15 and 20 mph.
So look for a lot of what happened on Saturday and Sunday at the Palmer, terrible conditions on a really tough course.

Still, how much did the change of date cause the course to play differently? The winners have been pretty consistent as in most years, hitting greens is very important. Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top ten in greens hit, with four leading that stat. Since the change to May, of the 12 winners, six of the winners have been in the top-ten with only one, Sergio Garcia leading in greens hit. In 2018 Webb Simpson was T-5th, but most of the time in the May dates, it wasn’t that important. With the change to March in 2019, Rory McIlroy was T-3rd hitting 58 of 72 greens while Justin Thomas last year was T-17th, hitting 52 of 72 greens.

In looking at our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. The course ranked T-25th last year and 3rd in 2019. (Remember, no 2020 because of COVID-9). It was T-15th on tour in 2018, and T-11th in 2017. But in 2016, it was T-2nd, so we pick that as the key stat.
In looking at our past winners, Last year Justin Thomas led that stat and in 2019, Rory McIlroy led the stat also. In 2018, Webb Simpson was 16th. But in 2017, Si Woo Kim was 2nd in his win, while in 2016, Jason Day was 3rd. In 2015 Rickie Fowler won, ranking 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2014 winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in this stat while the 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st. So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players as proven in seven of the last eight winners other than Simpson finished no higher than 5th.

The next important stat is Proximity to hole. Last year it ranked 9th on the PGA Tour with Justin Thomas ranking 8th. In 2019 it ranked 6th on tour, with McIlroy ranking 11th, the previous year, the course ranked 9th on tour, with Simpson ranking 69th. In 2017 it ranked 2nd on tour, with Kim finishing T-39th in that stat. In 2016 it ranked 14th on tour, with champion Jason Day ranking T-50th in this stat. But in 2015, this stat was important in Rickie Fowler’s win. He was T-3rd while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 46th while Tiger in 2013 was T-23rd. Still, since it’s crucial to hit greens and get it close, we feel this stat’s importance.

Our third important stat is scrambling since it’s vital to hit greens, and hard to do this. You have to be able to get it up and down on the greens you miss. Last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 6th hardest in scrambling while winner Justin Thomas ranked 14th. In 2019 the course was 8th hardest while McIlroy was T-40th. In 2018 it was 7th hardest on tour while Simpson was the 24th. In 2017 the course was 4th in this stat while the winner Si Woo Kim was 1st in scrambling. For 2016 the course ranked 9th in scrambling, while we see that winner Jason Day was 1st in this stat. In 2015 Rickie Fowler was 10th, while in 2014, Martin Kaymer was 4th, and Tiger Woods in 2013 was 6th. So you can see the importance of scrambling.

Our fourth stat is something that was very hard to pinpoint. That is because putting doesn’t show us much, and there is nothing that catches our attention in playing the par 3s, par 4s and par 5s. But one thing that TPC Sawgrass does give up is a lot of birdies. It seems hard to believe since the course is so hard, but in 2021 1,576 birdies were made as 15 other courses saw more birdies made and winner Justin Thomas ranked 3rd making 21 birdies (Paul Casey & Talor Gooch made 22). In 2019 1,704 birdies were made on the course as only eight other courses saw more birdies made. I was surprised to see that Rory made 21 birdies, and it was T-5th (Brandt Snedeker and Abraham Ancer led with 23). In 2018 1,754 birdies were made as only four of the 51 courses saw more birdies made. Webb Simpson made 23 which was T-2nd. In 2017, remember the course played very tough, it had 1,429 birdies made, making it the 17th hardest of 50 courses. One thing to realize is that the field is 144 players, while most events have fields of 156, giving it more chances for more birdies, But if you look at some of the other courses that have had more birdies, they aren’t as challenging as TPC Sawgrass, so that is why making lot’s of birdies is essential. Now total birdies are very misleading since some players like Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott haven’t played as many events as those that play week in and week out. Our fourth important stat is birdie average, which is the average birdies made for each round. In looking at the last eight winners, Justin Thomas ranked 3rd, Rory McIlroy ranked T-5th, Webb Simpson ranked T-2nd while in 2017 Si Woo Kim ranked T-34th while in 2016 Jason Day ranked T-2nd in birdie average, 2015 winner Rickie Fowler was T-1st, Martin Kaymer in 2014 was T-9th, and Tiger in 2013 was T-15th.
But the big thing to think about this year is that the course will play differently not only with the change of dates and the grass, which will be overseeded with Rye, creating different challenges. But the weather is going to be really tough so look for a lot of high scores this year.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 27th, but in proximity to the hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Sawgrass ranked 9th as the players averaged hitting it 39 feet, 10 inches away from the hole.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Takes the number of birdies and multiplies it by the number of rounds so that we can see what the average of birdies are made per round. Last year 1,576 birdies were made making it a 3.51 average per player.

Here are the 137 of 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2022:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to the page that shows all the player stats

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 126 have played at least once at TPC Sawgrass in The Players since 2010.

Here are the players with the most under par totals at The Players since 2010:

• Adam Scott is 51 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Sergio Garcia is 48 under in 44 rounds, playing 11 years
• Jason Day is 41 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Justin Thomas is 38 under in 23 rounds, playing 6 years
• Matt Kuchar is 37 under in 39 rounds, playing 11 years
• Rory McIlroy is 29 under in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Zach Johnson is 29 under in 41 rounds, playing 11 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 27 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Lee Westwood is 27 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Si Woo Kim is 27 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Dustin Johnson is 26 under in 37 rounds, playing 10 years
• Francesco Molinari is 26 under in 30 rounds, playing 10 years
• Justin Rose is 25 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is 20 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Webb Simpson is 20 under in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Billy Horschel is 17 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Abraham Ancer is 16 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Jon Rahm is 16 under in 15 rounds, playing 4 years
• Ryan Palmer is 16 under in 32 rounds, playing 11 years
• Brooks Koepka is 15 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Chris Kirk is 15 under in 35 rounds, playing 10 years
• Ian Poulter is 15 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Corey Conners is 14 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 14 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• J.T. Poston is 13 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Keegan Bradley is 13 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Matthew Fitzpatrick is 13 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• Daniel Berger is 12 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Charley Hoffman is 11 under in 36 rounds, playing 11 years
• Jhonattan Vegas is 11 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Patrick Reed is 11 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Jordan Spieth is 10 under in 20 rounds, playing 7 years
• Tom Hoge is 10 under in 11 rounds, playing 3 years
• Xander Schauffele is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 3 years

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,100
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Collin Morikawa – $10,700
• Justin Thomas – $10,400
• Viktor Hovland – $10,100
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,900
• Dustin Johnson – $9,800
• Xander Schauffele – $9,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
• Cameron Smith – $9,400
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,200
• Jordan Spieth – $9,000

Remember what I told you before, there are really no favorites at the Players and this is a tournament that is hard to gauge since there are no “horses for courses.”  Making things even harder the weather is going to be wet and windy so it’s going to be really hard to gauge a winner.  So the strategy should be to go low and not get caught with a bunch of high-paying players.  So I am saying no to John Rahm at $11,100 just because his record isn’t great at TPC Sawgrass and he has struggled.  As for Rory McIlroy at $10,800 I am being careful with him, yes he is playing good but looks what happened last week in windy conditions with him shooting 76-76.  Collin Morikawa at $10,700 is my pick to win this week so he is ok but the price is high.  As for defending champion Justin Thomas at $10,400 he is also a no for me, yes playing well but defending champions always seem to struggle so that is why I am passing on him. Viktor Hovland at $10,100 is a toss-up, yes he missed the cut last year but that should be discounted.  He is playing well and will contend, but can he give you a top-five is the big answer.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,900 is a no for me, just don’t think Florida suits his game and it has shown with two miss cuts at the Players.  Dustin Johnson at $9,800 is also a big no for me, he has a terrible record at this event and has not played well for a while.  Xander Schauffele at $9,700 is also a no for me, another California kid that could struggle in Florida.  Yes, he was T-2nd in one of his first Floridian starts but has struggled and seems to avoid playing in Florida.  I also think that Hideki Matsuyama who is at $9,600 is a no, he has played 20 times in Florida with just three top-tens the best being a T-6th at the 2016 Palmer.  At Sawgrass was T-7th in 2016 and T-8th in 2019 but has struggled in his other five starts.  Cameron Smith at $9,400 is a no and that is because he really struggles in Florida in ten starts his best finish was T-17th at the Players.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,200 and despite his victory last week is a no for me, just can’t seem him keeping it together with another four rounds this week.  Now for Jordan Spieth at $9,000 he is also a no.  In his first Players start was T-4th in 2014 but has really struggled since missing the cut in four of his last six starts.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Players Championship on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least four Players starts:

• Sergio Garcia made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Justin Thomas made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Jon Rahm made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,100.
• Adam Scott made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Zach Johnson made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Dustin Johnson made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Lee Westwood made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Branden Grace made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Daniel Berger made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Matt Kuchar made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Chris Kirk made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Harold Varner III made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Brooks Koepka made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Billy Horschel made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Ian Poulter made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Russell Knox made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Patrick Reed made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Keegan Bradley made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Justin Rose made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Jason Day made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Bubba Watson made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I really like Daniel Berger at $8,800, the last we saw him he didn’t play well in the final round at the Honda and I think he will play great this week.  WIth bad weather and wind, I like Brooks Koepka at $8,600.  He is a guy that does well in tough conditions and I can see Brooks do very well this week.  Also, think that Billy Horschel will do good this week at $8,100.  He came close at the Palmer and despite not playing great at the Players he has gotten to four rounds in six of his eight starts.  I can see it all coming together for him this week.  The same with Shane Lowry at $8,000, the last time we saw him he finished 2nd at the Honda and played great.  Lowry was 8th last year at Sawgrass so look for him to be better this week.  I also see great things from Matt Fitzpatrick this week at a really cheap price of $7,700.  He was T-9th at the Players last year and has been on a roll of late finishing T-6th at Pebble, T-10th at Phoenix, and T-9th at the Palmer.  Jason Day at $7,500 is a steal, he won in 2016 and was T-8th in 2019.  Yes, he lost his mother last week but feel he wants to play well in memory of her and will do great.

Are there any “Bargains” at the Players Championship?

Yes there are and the biggest right off the bat am very shocked to see last week’s fifth-place finisher Gary Woodland at $7,400.  Yes, his record is not good at Sawgrass, only made four cuts in nine starts, but I feel that he is in the same spot as he was before winning the 2019 U.S. Open.  Woodland was T-5th at both Honda and the Palmer, so he is showing some good play on tough courses in Florida.  Sergio Garcia at $7,400 is a good DraftKings pick.  In his last 11 starts, he has made the cut 11 times and has 7 top-tens at the Players.  Last year he was T-9th, think he can do the same this year.  Another must-buy is Si Woo Kim at $7,300.  Not only is he a winner at Sawgrass he has made five of five cuts and was T-9th last year.  On the PGA Tour, he has done well missing only one cut in 12 starts but was T-26th last week at the Palmer.  He will earn a lot of points at a cheap price.  Corey Conners at $7,300 is also a great bargain pick.  He was T-7th last year at Sawgrass and in his last start was T-11th at the Palmer.  Jason Kokrak at $7,300 is also that kind of guy you know will make the cut and earn you points.  He was T-9th last year at The Players and has been steady all year including T-26th in his last two starts at the Palmer and Genesis.  Cameron Young is cheap at $7,200, has never played the Players but has played well of late, like him making the cut and earning points.  Talor Gooch is $7,200 and I like him.  He won up the road at the RSM in November and he was T-5th last year at the Players.  He has had a good year and was T-7th last week at the Palmer.  Chris Kirk at $7,000 is also a good pick, nothing spectacular but in ten Players starts has made eight cuts, but on the PGA Tour was T7th at the Honda and T-5th at the Palmer.  So this could be the best list of bargains we have seen in a long time.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The Players Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for it with his win in 2002.  Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour.  On top of that, since 1982 when the Players switch to the Stadium course there have been 34 different winners with 20 of them winning 51 major championships. Still, the fact is if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it the cream always rises to the top.   Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass, Thomas, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson, Day, McIlroy, and Woods. Not a bad list.  But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions so if that happens this year look for a marquee winner.  But that will probably not happen so with windy conditions and rain could that produce a Non-marquee champion?  Oh, Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship.  Talking about weird winners 2017 champion Si Woo Kim also goes down in the annals of the Players has a long-shot winner.  He became the youngest winner at 21 years, 10 months, and 16 days and he only had 61 career PGA Tour starts, the 2nd least of anyone to win the Players (Henrik Stenson won on his 44th PGA Tour career start)  In his winning year the weather saw four days of winds up to 20 mph.  Also, remember one of the worst weather weeks the Players have ever seen in 2005, it was bad that the tournament finished on Monday with Fred Funk winning.  So maybe this opens the door if the weather is bad for a non-marquee winner.

Totally useless stat:

One of the most significant oddities of The Players Championship is the fact that nobody has ever repeated as champion. If you go back and look at all the tournaments that started before 1998, the only other one like this was the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee which is no longer played.  Six players have won this event multiple times (including all years), but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 1978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996) and Davis Love III (1992, 2003).  There have only been four multiple winners since it moved to TPC Sawgrass.

The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle who won it in a playoff in 1987.  We say unusual because of his 13 starts he only made three cuts, his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994 and a T70th in 1997.  Now Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries, but after winning the 2002 Players, he finished T17th the next year.  Also, have to add 2016 winner Jason Day to this list.  In five tries before he won he missed the cut three times.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

Going back to 2000, every winner but eight have been in the top-10 of greens hit category and five of them have led (Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton-2000). In 2012 Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens, in 2013 Tiger Woods was also T3rd hitting 55 of 72 greens.  In 2014 Martin Kaymer also finished 3rd, hitting 54 of 72 greens. In 2015 Rickie Fowler had the worst greens hit performance of any champion going back to 1997, he hit only 45 of 72 greens and ranked T-51st.  In 2016 Jason Day hit 52 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th, 2017 Si Woo Kim hit 45 of 72 greens (least of any champion since 1997) and ranked T-37th.  In 2018 Webb Simpson hit 55 of 72 greens and was T-5th while in 2019 Rory McIlory  hit 58 of 72 greens and was T-3rd.  Last year Justin Thomas hit 52 of 72 greens and was T-17th.

Is putting important this week?

Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tricky and fast; historically players have had a tough time making putts inside of ten feet.  In looking at the rankings, last year TPC Sawgrass was T-23rd hardest course in making putts inside ten feet with an average of 86.75%.  In 2018 it was ranked T-14th hardest course with an average of 87.02%. In the past, the number of putts hasn’t been the key as between 2004, and 2010 nobody was in the top-ten in number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T5th in 2012 with 110 putts.  In 2013 Tiger Woods was T35th taking 114 putts while in 2014 Martin Kaymer also took 114 putts which ranked T38th.  In 2015 Rickie Fowler was T-2nd taking only 106 putts, while in 2016 Jason Day was T-3rd taking just 107 putts.  In 2017 Si Woo Kim kept the streak going as his 108 putts ranked T-3rd and in 2018 Webb Simpson also had 108 putts which ranked T-4th.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy had 116 putts which ranked T-43rd.  Last year Justin Thomas had 112 putts and ranked T-8th.

 How about scrambling?

Scrambling is important, no matter how well a player does he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win.  Last year it was the 6th hardest on the PGA Tour with a field average of 52.19.  Justin Thomas was 14th last year getting it up and down 13 of 20 greens missed.  In 2019 TPC Sawgrass was the 8th hardest course to get it up and down as the field average 55.08 in getting it up and down.  McIlory finished T-40th in scrambling.  In 2018 it was the 7th hardest course to get it up and down as the field averaged getting it up and down 53.013%, with Webb Simpson finishing 24th.  But in 2017 SiWoo Kim and Jason Day in 2016 leading the scrambling stat getting it up and down 81.48 for Kim and 85% for Day.  There are a lot of tough chips on this course, and it will take a lot of chip and runs instead of pitching it in the air.

Lastly, the last three holes are the most talked about holes in golf.  They all represent their challenges, problems, and drama as water plays a prominent role.  Between 2003 and 2019, 2,127 balls have gotten wet on the three holes, compare this to holes 1 thru 15 that have had a total of 1,911 balls in the water.  The 17th has the most with 802; the 18th has seen 775 go in the water while the 16th has seen 550 balls in the water.  So in doing the math, these three holes have been played 7,427 times with 2,127 in the water for a 28.6% average.  So the chances of getting your ball wet on those holes on any given round is a shade under 3 in 10.  In 2019, 45 balls went into the water on the 17 hole.

Here is how the last nine winners of the Players did on the final three holes in their final rounds:

Since hole by hole records have been kept, here is a summary of how the winners fared on the final three holes in the final round:

• 16th hole – Winner has never made higher than par, with four Eagles (last was Rickie Fowler in 2015), 14 birdies (last was Justin Thomas in 2021), and 19 pars
• 17th hole – Winner has birdied the hole ten times (last was Rickie Fowler in 2015), par has been made 25 times and three bogeys on the hole (last was Matt Kuchar in 2012).
• 18th hole – Only four times has the winner birdied 18, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Steve Elkington in both 1991 & ’97, and Rickie Fowler in 2015.  25 times has the winner made par while 8 times the champion made bogey, the last being Phil Mickelson in 2007.  In 2018 Webb Simpson made double on the hole, the first champion to end his championship in that manner.

Here is a look at how the last eight winners of the Players have done on 16, 17, and 18 in their winning years: