BlogValspar Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

With all of the bad weather, the Players were able to finish with a lot of drama.  Have to say that I didn’t see Cameron Smith winning, but he honesty was an excellent pick for those that picked him.  I didn’t pick him because he never played well in the four other Players he participated in.  Smith explained that despite living just five miles from the course, he does practice a lot but rarely plays the course.

Not to take anything away from Smith’s victory, yes it was a good win and something that people won’t complain about.  Yes, Smith is turning out to be a premier player, one that we can count on to win at any time and at any tournament, including majors.  Now Smith won with the putter, he had 42 one-putts, which is the best of any winner at TPC Sawgrass.  Throughout 72 holes, Smith gained more than 11.5 strokes putting for the week, the best by a Players Champion since 2003 when stats were tracked.  Smith needed just 10 putts in his last nine holes in the final round.  For the week, he made 60 of 65 putts inside ten feet and made 7 of 11 putts between 10 and 15 feet.

But we have to talk about the 1,000-pound gorilla that will be discussed when people look at the 2022 Players, the luck of the draw.  Because Smith teed off early Thursday and late Friday, he got the best of the weather.  For those teeing off late Thursday and early Friday, with all of the delays on Thursday and Friday, most of the players had to play the extent of their first 36 holes in the windy Saturday.  Smith, runner-up Anirban Lahiri and third-place finisher Paul Casey were in the late/early draw and teed off six groups apart.

Yes, a lot will be written about the advantage, after the second round, those teeing off early late like Smith, the average was 72.43 while those teeing off late early clocked in at 73.63.  But it was even worst for those who had to start Saturday on the back nine.  Of the 71 players who made the 36-hole cut, 44 players were in the early/late wave while 27 played in the late/early surge.  Also showing the advantage of the top-15 players on the leaderboard after the second round, Doug Ghim was the only player in the late/early wave.

Now pertaining to Valspar,

many of the top players in the field played well at the Players.  Kevin Kisner was 4th, Keegan Bradley was 5th, Harold Varner III was T-6th, and Russell Know.  Viktor Hovland, Adam Hadwin, and Dustin Johnson were T-9th, with Johnson shooting a final round 63.  So we could have an excellent tournament.

A problem that won’t go away

45 years ago, while going to college, I loved going to Santa Anita Race Track.  Back then, it was fun, the atmosphere was great, the food superb, and it was a great bargain to watch the horses.  I loved roaming around the complex, and one of my favorite spots was the paddock area before the horses made it to the track.  You could learn a lot about how the horses were doing; some would be very perky, while those that labored and looked lazy were sometimes the horses to pass on.  While at the paddock, I would run across this man in his early 70s, his name was Ted Payne.  Now you could tell that he did great in his younger days because he was always smartly dressed in a tweed suit, tie, and a hat that looked like something out of the 50s.  You could tell he was a degenerate gambler, and if you got too close to him, there was a faint scent of Bourbon.  Payne was a perfect person to talk with, he always had tips and antidotes on the ponies, but my favorite time with Payne was when he gave me his words of wisdom on gambling.  As he was staring at the horses in the paddock, he would say out loud how much he wished he could talk with horses.  As he would say, “I could win a million dollars if I knew how the horse felt before the race.  If the horse had a nice breakfast and a nice morning, these would be the winners of the day.  But for those that had a terrible morning, you could avoid.”

What makes gambling so challenging in golf is not knowing what is up personally with golfers.  Did Collin have a good morning before he was going to play?  How Dustin felt before he played, did he feel strong, or did he lack any confidence?  The most important aspect that we can’t find out is whether a player is healthy and ready to go.

For 15 years between 1988 and 2003, I worked full time for ABC on their golf coverage.  I went to about 25 events a year and spent a lot of time on the driving range before and after rounds, doing pieces and interviews with players for the telecast.  With access like that, you learn a lot about how the players are doing in talking with caddies, officials, agents, and club reps.  I had a lot of inside access on what was up and would think about those days on the Santa Anita paddock listening to Mr. Payne wishing he could talk with the ponies.

Information is essential in every aspect of gambling.  We have a lot of stats that help us judge players, from week to week and from course to course.  But we have very little “inside information” on the players, and most gamblers can never gain access to golf as gamblers get in other sports like Football or Baseball.  In those sports, we get lots of stats to help us, but through media coverage and the fact that injuries can’t be hidden from the team, we know the health of just about every player.  Now, as gambling takes hold, more people want to know more “inside information” on players, mostly on player injuries.  Just in the last month, many of us have been stung by the lack of simple player injuries that have cost us.  One example happened at the Genesis Invitational the previous month with Matt Fitzpatrick.  Going into the week, he was off of a T-6th at the AT&T Pebble Beach and a T-10th at the Phoenix Open.  Since he was T-5th the previous year at Riviera, he was a player that many chose and thought would do well.  But little did we know that the night before the pro-am, Fitzpatrick got a stomach ailment and withdrew.  Things weren’t any better the next day, and hours before he was supposed to tee off, he withdrew.  For those with head-to-head bets, they got their money back since Matt never played.  But we didn’t have enough time to change for DraftKing players who made Matt one of their six picks and had a losing ticket.

The same happened at the Players Championship by two players.  First was Luke List, who won the Farmers but has struggled, including a miss cut at Genesis and the Palmer.  After playing eight holes in the first round, List withdrew due to a neck injury, which he had going into the weak.  On Monday, a similar thing happened to Billy Horschel, who withdrew halfway through his third round due to a sinus infection he had been dealing with.

Now many, including myself, got burned by these injuries and have some wondering if to maintain the integrity statutes of golf gambling, the PGA Tour has to come out with some simple warning on the status of players.  Of course, I can understand that the Tour can’t do much because of privacy issues, and PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan has already said that the Tour will not force players to do anything.  Right now, things seem ok, but when gamblers start getting bored and realizing that other sports provide ways for gamblers to have some sense of players not being 100%, there could be more active voices asking for this and more transparency.  The PGA Tour is making a boatload of money off of gambling, so it seems very little to maintain a list on PGA Tour.Com that alerts folks with simple information like a player is dealing with a neck injury or a sinus infection before the start of a tournament.  This can be done in a way that still protects player privacy.  What do you think about this?

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Valspar Championship

This will be the 21st Valspar Championship, with the first one played in 2000.  The Valspar was the first full-field PGA Tour event held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open was played between 1930 and 1964.

The tournament was formally called the Tampa Bay Classic and then changed in 2003 to the Chrysler Championship.  Chrysler dropped out in 2006 and PODS took over sponsorship and got an added boost with the advent of the FedEx Cup series and the transfer of the Players Championship to May.  So in 2007, just six months after the close of the 2006 event the tournament moved into it’s new March date. But that didn’t last long as with a change of management at PODS; they left after the 2008 event.   The power of the PGA Tour shined through as Transitions Lens, an optical lens manufacturing company, whose headquarters are in the Tampa Bay area, came to the rescue with a four-year deal but unfortunately, that deal came to an end after the 2012 event.  They got EverBank to write off some of the expenses in 2013 but for 2014 got their sixth and present sponsor Valspar, a company that is paint and coatings manufacturers.  The 2001 event didn’t happen because of the 9/11 tragedy.

When the tournament first started in 2000, it was the first time that a full PGA Tour event was held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open,  held between 1930 and 1964.  The course was the home of the mix-event JCPenney Classic, which ended in 1999.

Now the event doesn’t have much history, which is a problem for attracting a great field.  But the Innisbrook Copperhead course is a hidden gem on the PGA Tour and one that gets players’ attention.  Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses like Bay Hill.

Course information:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Palm Harbor, Fl.
• 7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71

The course has a 76.8 rating and a slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course.  It also sells local memberships.

The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards in which six holes have water in play for the professionals.

Larry Packard designed the Copperhead course and opened in 1974.  It was restored in 1999, two years after Westin Inc. purchased it. The goal of the restoration project was to regain the shot values and still challenge today’s longer-hitting PGA Tour players when Innisbrook hosts PGA Tour events. The plan involved refurbishing all 18 greens, restructuring many of the bunkers, removing some trees around the greens to improve air movement and sunlight, and clearing out undergrowth between fairways. The length of the golf course is the most visible change from 7,087 to 7,230 yards by the addition of tournament tees on five holes.  Since then minor renovations have added another 110 yards to the course, bringing the final yardage to 7,340.

So from day one in 2000, the Copperhead course has the reputation of being a fantastic, fair course that many of the players enjoy.  As I said before, you can’t overpower the Copperhead course, and by no coincidence, players that hit it long usually take this week off.  So the course demands hitting fairways and avoiding the rough.  Another key to the course is the greens. They are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour because of the grain on the greens.  In 2020 the field finished 49th in overall putting average with only two courses better meaning that players can make putts on this course.  The 2021 winner was Sam Burns who was 3rd in Strokes Gained putting and was first in putting inside ten feet making 59 of 61 putts in this length.  In 2019, the field finished 42nd in overall putting average, meaning that only 7 courses on the PGA Tour had better putting numbers than the Cooperhead course.  Historically, the winners have a great putting week; Paul Casey showed that in his two victories in 2019 and ’18.  Other great putters that have won the Valspar including Jordan Spieth, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, and last year’s winner Sam Burns.

More prove on the toughest of the course, in the history of this event, only 59 times has a player shot four-under-par rounds, with seven players doing it last year.  Before that, the last time was Tiger Woods in 2018.  Taking it a step further, only 15 times has a player shot four rounds in the 60s, the last time it happened was last year when Sam Burns, Cameron Tringale, and Viktor Hovland did it.  Before that, the last time a player shot four rounds in the 60s was in 2012.  We have to understand one of the factors of this stat is mother nature.  The winds of March seem to show up each year this event is played, and this is why the course has played over par every year between 2012 and 2019.  Because of the perfect weather and lack of wind last year the course played to an average of 70.96, just a notch below par of 71.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Copperhead Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, based on data from the 2021 Valspar Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Cooperhead last year was 70.96 and it was the 20th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The weather was good, yes the course saw wind of up to 15 mph every day except for on Saturday which was a great day and the winds were only 8 mph. Now the Cooperhead course is a very demanding course, the 70.96 average was the first time the course played under par since 2012 when perfect weather brought the scoring average below par at 70.73. In 2019 (no event in 2020) was 71.98, making Cooperhead the 6th hardest course to score on in 2019. In 2018 the scoring average was 71.97, and again it was the 6th hardest course to score on in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph making the course really hard. In the wind the course is a bear, just look in 2015 when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest), in 2014 the average was 72.59 (10th hardest) and in 2013 it played at 71.91 making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind and it’s a brute. But when you have four days of calm conditions, the course can get easier as in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds the course played to a 71.51 scoring average making it the 17th hardest course. Now in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March which is the windiest time for that area, but last year was an exception to the rule since the course was played in April and spilled over to the first of May. This week winds will be under 10 mph each day, except for Sunday when it will be 11 mph so with temperatures right around 75 each day look for scoring to be easier this year.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead for 2021, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet were important. So our first stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because of the fact that last year the course ranked 20th in Driving Accuracy and 6th in greens hit. WInner Sam Burns was T-14th in Driving Accuracy and T-35th in Greens hit so he was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Now in 2019, the course ranked 11th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens hit. Paul Casey, who was the defending champion, he also won the Valspar in 2018 so he has held on to the title for three years now. In 2019 Casey was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and in 2018 he was 6th. In 2019 Casey was 9th in driving accuracy (was T-68th in 2018) and was T-5th in Greens hit (was T-30th in 2019). Showing how important greens hit is, of the players who finished in the top-five in 2019, 3 of them were in the top-eight in greens hit. In 2018, of the top-4 in position, 3 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit with 4th place finisher Sergio Garcia finishing 2nd in greens hit. Now that stat didn’t work in 2021 as only one player, runner-up Keegan Bradley finished in the top-5, he was 3rd in greens hit while winner Sam Burns was T-35th.
So it’s important to get it close to the hole from the fairway. Last year the Cooperhead course was 19th in Proximity to the hole while Burns was 10th so our second stat is Proximity to the Hole.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because of the importance of putting well at Innisbrook. The greens are average size and don’t have many undulations, so players can do well on the greens. Last year the field finished 49th in overall putting averaging meaning that only 2 courses on the PGA Tour had easier greens to putt. Last year the winner Burns was 2nd in overall putting and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting and he found the Cooperhead greens easy to maneuver. In 2019 the winner Casey was T-32ndin overall putting average but in Strokes Gained Putting he was 43rd (we always knew that Paul Casey putting is not the strong suit of his game).
Last we have Par Breakers as the course was the 11th hardest course on tour in Par Breakers. Burns was 1st in Par Breakers as his 21 birdies were 2nd best and his 2 eagles were also 2nd best. Just about the same for 2019, the Cooperhead course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour to get birdies and eagles. This is one of the reasons the scoring average is high, players just can’t make a lot of birdies or eagles. In looking at the comparison,it had a 16.04 average in Par Breakers at Innisbrook, but the most productive course in 2019 in Par Breakers was La Quinta C.C. that average is 27.88 But Par Breakers wasn’t a problem for winner Paul Casey as he ranked T-1st in 2019 and T-5th in Par Breakers in 2018.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication on players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to the Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

*Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you have to make these putts in order to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost..

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 6th in this stat on tour in 2015.

126 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Strokes gained Tee-to-Greens	*Proximity to the Hole	*Strokes Gained Putting	*Par Breakers	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Collin Morikawa (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	9	35	8	4	56	10700
2	Shane Lowry (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	36	7	13	85	141	9700
3	Webb Simpson (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	68	33	37	13	151	8300
4	Viktor Hovland (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	29	59	67	2	157	10800
5	Justin Thomas (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	4	28	127	3	162	11000
6	Sam Burns (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	22	92	57	10	181	9600
7	Adam Hadwin (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	46	12	38	86	182	7900
8	Louis Oosthuizen (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	30	51	82	25	188	9900
9	Harold Varner III (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	69	55	70	8	202	8600
10	Xander Schauffele (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	26	110	61	16	213	10300

To get stats for all players in the Valspar

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 109 have played at least once in the Valspar.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the Valspar since 2010:

• Bubba Watson is 27 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Luke Donald is 25 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Sam Burns is 21 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Webb Simpson is 21 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Matt Kuchar is 16 under in 28 rounds, playing 7 years
• Abraham Ancer is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Louis Oosthuizen is 15 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years
• Viktor Hovland is 13 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Bill Haas is 12 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Henrik Stenson is 11 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Jimmy Walker is 11 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Wesley Bryan is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Charl Schwartzel is 9 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Thomas is 8 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Denny McCarthy is 7 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Alex Noren is 5 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Cameron Tringale is 5 under in 28 rounds, playing 9 years
• Matthew NeSmith is 5 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Austin Cook is 4 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Dustin Johnson is 4 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Hank Lebioda is 4 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Keegan Bradley is 4 under in 18 rounds, playing 6 years
• Vincent Whaley is 4 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Doc Redman is 3 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• J.T. Poston is 2 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Adam Schenk is 1 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jason Day is 1 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Pat Perez is 1 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Jason Kokrak is even par in 32 rounds, playing 10 years
• Joel Dahmen is even par in 4 rounds, playing 1 year

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Abraham Ancer is 15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Sam Burns is 21 under, playing 3 years (-7.0)
• Bubba Watson is 27 under, playing 5 years (-5.4)
• Wesley Bryan is 10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Denny McCarthy is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Luke Donald is 25 under, playing 10 years (-2.5)
• Webb Simpson is 21 under, playing 9 years (-2.3)
• Matt Kuchar is 16 under, playing 7 years (-2.3)
• Justin Thomas is 8 under, playing 4 years (-2.0)
• Hank Lebioda is 4 under, playing 2 years (-2.0)
• Louis Oosthuizen is 15 under, playing 8 years (-1.9)
• Henrik Stenson is 11 under, playing 6 years (-1.8)
• Jimmy Walker is 11 under, playing 6 years (-1.8)
• Bill Haas is 12 under, playing 7 years (-1.7)
• Charl Schwartzel is 9 under, playing 6 years (-1.5)
• Austin Cook is 4 under, playing 3 years (-1.3)
• Dustin Johnson is 4 under, playing 3 years (-1.3)
• Keegan Bradley is 4 under, playing 6 years (-0.7)
• J.T. Poston is 2 under, playing 3 years (-0.7)
• Cameron Tringale is 5 under, playing 9 years (-0.6)
• Adam Schenk is 1 under, playing 3 years (-0.3)
• Jason Day is 1 under, playing 5 years (-0.2)
• Pat Perez is 1 under, playing 6 years (-0.2)
• Jason Kokrak is even par, playing 10 years (0.0)
• Zach Johnson is 1 over, playing 7 years (0.1)
• Kevin Streelman is 2 over, playing 9 years (0.2)
• Russell Knox is 2 over, playing 8 years (0.3)
• Vaughn Taylor is 2 over, playing 5 years (0.4)
• Bronson Burgoon is 1 over, playing 2 years (0.5)
• Adam Hadwin is 3 over, playing 6 years (0.5)
• Danny Lee is 4 over, playing 7 years (0.6)
• Gary Woodland is 6 over, playing 10 years (0.6)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week.

In our new GOLFIQ, we have a lot of ways of looking at stats and have a good DraftKings analysis.  Here is a quick look at the top players over the year that has the best offense.

Here is a look at who has made the most Draftings points in 2022:

In 2022, Justin Thomas played in 7 events, playing 28 rounds.  Earned 728.0 DK Pts., 26.0 pts per round, 104.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 11,000

In 2022, Collin Morikawa played in 5 events, playing 18 rounds.  Earned 494.0 DK Pts., 27.4 pts per round, 98.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 10,700

In 2022, Viktor Hovland played in 8 events, playing 30 rounds.  Earned 756.0 DK Pts., 25.2 pts per round, 94.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 10,800

In 2022, Xander Schauffele played in 7 events, playing 26 rounds.  Earned 580.0 DK Pts., 22.3 pts per round, 82.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 10,300

In 2022, Sam Burns played in 10 events, playing 34 rounds.  Earned 783.0 DK Pts., 23.0 pts per round, 78.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,600

In 2022, Tyrrell Hatton played in 5 events, playing 18 rounds.  Earned 384.0 DK Pts., 21.3 pts per round, 76.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,800

In 2022, Jason Kokrak played in 8 events, playing 30 rounds.  Earned 612.0 DK Pts., 20.4 pts per round, 76.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,200

In 2022, Ryan Brehm played in 2 events, playing 6 rounds.  Earned 153.0 DK Pts., 25.5 pts per round, 76.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,300

In 2022, Dustin Johnson played in 4 events, playing 14 rounds.  Earned 296.0 DK Pts., 21.1 pts per round, 74.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 10,200

In 2022, Webb Simpson played in 6 events, playing 20 rounds.  Earned 436.5 DK Pts., 21.8 pts per round, 72.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,300

In 2022, Louis Oosthuizen played in 6 events, playing 21 rounds.  Earned 435.0 DK Pts., 20.7 pts per round, 72.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,900

In 2022, Matt Fitzpatrick played in 6 events, playing 22 rounds.  Earned 434.5 DK Pts., 19.8 pts per round, 72.4 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,000

In 2022, Abraham Ancer played in 9 events, playing 32 rounds.  Earned 648.0 DK Pts., 20.3 pts per round, 72.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,300

In 2022, Keegan Bradley played in 11 events, playing 40 rounds.  Earned 771.5 DK Pts., 19.3 pts per round, 70.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,400

In 2022, Joel Dahmen played in 12 events, playing 44 rounds.  Earned 839.5 DK Pts., 19.1 pts per round, 70.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,100

In 2022, Lanto Griffin played in 12 events, playing 44 rounds.  Earned 834.5 DK Pts., 19.0 pts per round, 69.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,400

In 2022, Cameron Tringale played in 13 events, playing 44 rounds.  Earned 895.0 DK Pts., 20.3 pts per round, 68.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,000

In 2022, Aaron Wise played in 11 events, playing 38 rounds.  Earned 754.5 DK Pts., 19.9 pts per round, 68.6 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,700

In 2022, Jason Day played in 7 events, playing 24 rounds.  Earned 476.0 DK Pts., 19.8 pts per round, 68.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,900

In 2022, Matthias Schwab played in 7 events, playing 26 rounds.  Earned 471.5 DK Pts., 18.1 pts per round, 67.4 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,300

In 2022, Kevin Kisner played in 9 events, playing 29 rounds.  Earned 605.5 DK Pts., 20.9 pts per round, 67.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,200

In 2022, Mackenzie Hughes played in 10 events, playing 34 rounds.  Earned 662.5 DK Pts., 19.5 pts per round, 66.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,800

In 2022, Adam Hadwin played in 12 events, playing 42 rounds.  Earned 789.0 DK Pts., 18.8 pts per round, 65.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,900

In 2022, Alex Noren played in 10 events, playing 37 rounds.  Earned 657.5 DK Pts., 17.8 pts per round, 65.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,700

In 2022, Denny McCarthy played in 13 events, playing 46 rounds.  Earned 851.0 DK Pts., 18.5 pts per round, 65.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,400

In 2022, Troy Merritt played in 11 events, playing 39 rounds.  Earned 717.5 DK Pts., 18.4 pts per round, 65.2 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,600

In 2022, Matt Kuchar played in 9 events, playing 31 rounds.  Earned 585.5 DK Pts., 18.9 pts per round, 65.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,000

In 2022, Tommy Fleetwood played in 5 events, playing 18 rounds.  Earned 325.5 DK Pts., 18.1 pts per round, 65.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,100

In 2022, Christiaan Bezuidenhout played in 10 events, playing 36 rounds.  Earned 643.0 DK Pts., 17.9 pts per round, 64.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,900

In 2022, Harold Varner III played in 9 events, playing 27 rounds.  Earned 578.5 DK Pts., 21.4 pts per round, 64.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,600

In 2022, Russell Knox played in 14 events, playing 49 rounds.  Earned 895.0 DK Pts., 18.3 pts per round, 63.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,100

In 2022, Patton Kizzire played in 13 events, playing 44 rounds.  Earned 827.0 DK Pts., 18.8 pts per round, 63.6 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, Francesco Molinari played in 8 events, playing 27 rounds.  Earned 504.5 DK Pts., 18.7 pts per round, 63.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,500

In 2022, Shane Lowry played in 5 events, playing 16 rounds.  Earned 315.5 DK Pts., 19.7 pts per round, 63.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 9,700

In 2022, Jhonattan Vegas played in 10 events, playing 35 rounds.  Earned 629.5 DK Pts., 18.0 pts per round, 63.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,500

In 2022, Sahith Theegala played in 14 events, playing 47 rounds.  Earned 874.0 DK Pts., 18.6 pts per round, 62.4 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, J.J. Spaun played in 15 events, playing 52 rounds.  Earned 933.0 DK Pts., 17.9 pts per round, 62.2 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,900

In 2022, Carlos Ortiz played in 11 events, playing 35 rounds.  Earned 682.0 DK Pts., 19.5 pts per round, 62.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, Mito Pereira played in 13 events, playing 45 rounds.  Earned 806.5 DK Pts., 17.9 pts per round, 62.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, Andrew Putnam played in 14 events, playing 46 rounds.  Earned 855.0 DK Pts., 18.6 pts per round, 61.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,600

In 2022, Sam Ryder played in 15 events, playing 50 rounds.  Earned 915.5 DK Pts., 18.3 pts per round, 61.0 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,000

In 2022, Nick Taylor played in 12 events, playing 42 rounds.  Earned 719.0 DK Pts., 17.1 pts per round, 59.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,300

In 2022, Martin Laird played in 9 events, playing 30 rounds.  Earned 531.5 DK Pts., 17.7 pts per round, 59.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, Brian Harman played in 11 events, playing 37 rounds.  Earned 647.5 DK Pts., 17.5 pts per round, 58.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,600

In 2022, Sean O’Hair played in 4 events, playing 14 rounds.  Earned 234.5 DK Pts., 16.8 pts per round, 58.6 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,400

In 2022, Adam Long played in 14 events, playing 47 rounds.  Earned 815.5 DK Pts., 17.4 pts per round, 58.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,800

In 2022, C.T. Pan played in 11 events, playing 37 rounds.  Earned 636.5 DK Pts., 17.2 pts per round, 57.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,300

In 2022, Greyson Sigg played in 13 events, playing 44 rounds.  Earned 752.5 DK Pts., 17.1 pts per round, 57.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,800

In 2022, Sung Kang played in 15 events, playing 48 rounds.  Earned 868.0 DK Pts., 18.1 pts per round, 57.9 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,800

In 2022, Danny Lee played in 10 events, playing 28 rounds.  Earned 577.5 DK Pts., 20.6 pts per round, 57.8 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,600

In 2022, Bubba Watson played in 3 events, playing 10 rounds.  Earned 172.5 DK Pts., 17.3 pts per round, 57.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,800

In 2022, Vaughn Taylor played in 7 events, playing 24 rounds.  Earned 401.0 DK Pts., 16.7 pts per round, 57.3 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,700

In 2022, Charley Hoffman played in 10 events, playing 33 rounds.  Earned 572.0 DK Pts., 17.3 pts per round, 57.2 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,100

In 2022, Davis Riley played in 13 events, playing 40 rounds.  Earned 744.0 DK Pts., 18.6 pts per round, 57.2 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,400

In 2022, Peter Malnati played in 16 events, playing 53 rounds.  Earned 915.5 DK Pts., 17.3 pts per round, 57.2 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,400

In 2022, Lee Hodges played in 14 events, playing 47 rounds.  Earned 800.0 DK Pts., 17.0 pts per round, 57.1 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,900

In 2022, Gary Woodland played in 10 events, playing 29 rounds.  Earned 567.0 DK Pts., 19.6 pts per round, 56.7 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 8,500

In 2022, Adam Svensson played in 13 events, playing 42 rounds.  Earned 735.0 DK Pts., 17.5 pts per round, 56.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,200

In 2022, Taylor Moore played in 12 events, playing 38 rounds.  Earned 678.5 DK Pts., 17.9 pts per round, 56.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 7,000

In 2022, Tyler Duncan played in 10 events, playing 31 rounds.  Earned 564.5 DK Pts., 18.2 pts per round, 56.5 pts per event.  Cost for him this week 6,200

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,000
• Viktor Hovland – $10,800
• Collin Morikawa – $10,700
• Xander Schauffele – $10,300
• Dustin Johnson- $10,200
• Louis Oosthuizen – $9,900
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,800
• Shane Lowry – $9,700
• Sam Burns – $9,600
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Abraham Ancer – $9,300
• Jason Kokrak – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,000

This is a tough tournament to gauge because of a lot of different reasons.  First, it’s not one of those events that historically players attend, a perfect example of that is Jordan Spieth who won the tournament in 2015 but didn’t play in it the last couple of years.  I realized that Paul Casey went through a lot last week at the Players, but to withdraw from the event that he plays the best on is crazy, oh well.  Then you have the weather, historically winds play havoc to scoring, but this week it should be pretty calm.  No matter what, we won’t have what we had last week in which came down to the draw on who played good and who played bad.

But the most critical problem of this event is historical data may not help things because the elements change from year to year and players don’t participate every year.  So it’s important to see which players seem to produce a lot of offensive every time they play.   As you can see in the chart up above, our top players do give a lot of offensive so it will be an interesting week.

So let’s look at our top players, first off is Justin Thomas at $11,000.  He has said he likes the course and it’s one that he can score on.  Of course, it makes sense that he has made more DraftKings points in 2022 with 728 points in seven events.  So he averages 104 points per event which makes him important to you.  But he is expensive and is finding his own on this course.  Yes in four starts his best finish is only T-10th, but he looked good at the Players despite finishing T-33rd.  Think he will be in the top ten and earn you close to 100 points this week.  Viktor Hovland is $10,800 and is not only playing well, was T-9th at the Players, and finished in the top ten in five of his last ten events.  If that isn’t enough Hovland averages 94.5 DraftKings points in 2022 so he will earn you a lot of points but at a price.  Collin Morikawa is $10,700 and missed his first cut since the Northern Trust in August.  But it was a total fluke, Morikawa got the worst of the weather on Saturday so we have to give him a pass.  He is playing at the Valspar for the first time but he should be just fine, oh Morikawa averages 98.8 DraftKing points per event so he will bring home the bacon.  Xander Schauffele at $10,300 is also a first-timer in this event and missed the cut at the Players.  I am not as high on Schauffele as I am with Morikawa, his game has struggled this year, mostly with spotty putting.  I say you have to say no about someone and it’s easy to say no on Schauffele this week even though he averages 82.9 DraftKing points per round.  The player I really like this week is Dustin Johnson at $10,200.  At the Players, he put everybody on warning saying he was working hard on his game and felt things were coming around.  When he went out in the final round at Sawgrass and put up a 63 to finish T-9th, that was a signal to the golf world that the sleeping giant was awaking.  Johnson has played twice in this event, was T-6th in 2021, and T-48th last year.  Louis Oosthuizen at $9,900 is a tough player to think about, his game hasn’t been good in six 2022 starts his best is only T-14th.  But Oosthuizen has never played well early on the PGA Tour and comes to a course that he has three top-tens in his last four starts including T-2nd in 2021 and T-8th last year.  Yes, he is good and he does average 72.5 DraftKing points per event even though he has not played great.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,800 is a hard pick, he has only played at Innisbrook once and missed the cut.  But he is one of the most consistent players this year and has been in the top-13 in his last four starts.  He is a good pick in the upper echelon at a reasonable price.  I question taking Shane Lowry this week at $9,700, just don’t think the course suits his game, in one start was T-49th in 2018.  But he has played well lately including a 2nd at the Honda and T-13th at the Players.  Sam Burns at $9,600 is worth the money, he is not only the defending champion but played well last week despite a final round 76 and was T-9th at the Palmer.  I don’t know what to say about Brooks Koepka at $9,400.  Innisbrook should be his type of course, but in one start he missed the cut.  2022 hasn’t been a great year except for his T-3rd in Phoenix, honestly, he could either win this week or miss the cut, I would avoid him.  Abraham Ancer at $9,300 could be the right player at the right time.  He has played twice at the Valspar, T-16th in 2018, and 5th last year.  He has been inconsistent this year, always has that one bad round that has doomed him.  But this could be a good place for him to do well.  Jason Kokrak at $9,200 is a good price for a player that excels on tough courses like Innisbrook.  In his last three starts at the Valspar were T-8th in 2018, T-2nd in 2019, and T-13th last year.  He has struggled since winning at Houston, but he still makes cuts and averages 76.5 Draftking points per round so he is a great pick.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100 is a no for me, he is playing at the Valspar for the first time and I fear his game is not suited for the course.  In 2022 has been ok, but nothing to write home to the parents about.  His DraftKings product is ok at 65.1 points per event, but still, nothing to write home to the parents about.  Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,000 is a coin-flip, in his only Innisbrook start, he missed the cut in 2018.  He missed the cut at the Players but again was on the wrong side of the pairings.  Before that has played well, that is why it’s tempting to take him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Valspar on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Valspar starts:

• Matt Kuchar made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Sam Burns made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Luke Donald made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Bill Haas made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Zach Johnson made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Jimmy Walker made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Henrik Stenson made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Bubba Watson made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Jason Day made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Russell Knox made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Justin Thomas made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,000.
• Kelly Kraft made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Kyle Stanley made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Patton Kizzire made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Charley Hoffman made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Webb Simpson made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Charl Schwartzel made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Pat Perez made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Chesson Hadley made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• J.T. Poston made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Austin Cook made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Trey Mullinax made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Dustin Johnson made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.
• Adam Schenk made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Danny Willett made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Luke Guthrie made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Carlos Ortiz made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Brandon Hagy made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Harold Varner III is $8,600 and could be good after this week, he is someone to watch but his record isn’t the best in this event.  I like Gary Woodland at $8,500, yes he missed the cut at the Players but again had to play in the wind on Saturday.  Yes, he has missed three cuts in a row at Innisbrook, but he also has won and could be good this week.  Keegan Bradley at $8,400 is a great price, he was 2nd last year in this event and 5th at the Players.  Also likes that he averages 72 DraftKing points per round.  Kevin Kisner at $8,200 could be a good buy.  Has never played well in this event but could do well, he played great last week at the Players and that could play could carry over.  Also like he averages 67.3 DraftKing points per event.  Adam Hadwin at $7,900 is a mix of good news and bad.  First, his record is inconsistent in this event, since winning the event in 2017 he has missed the cut his last two starts.  But he was T-9th at the Players and does average 65.8 DraftKing points per start.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Denny McCarthy at $7,400 is a good buy.  Was T-9th at the Valspar in 2019 and T-39th last year, was T-60th last week at the Players but like that he makes a lot of cuts and earns 65.5 DraftKing points per event.  Joel Dahmen at $7,100 is a good buy, in one Valspar start was T-30th in 2019 and has played consistently this year.  One good buy is Matt Kuchar at $7,100, his record at the Valspar is solid, making ten cuts in 11 starts.  He has been ok in 2022 I like that his price is great for a player that averages 65.1 DraftKing points per event.  Zach Johnson at $6,900 is a steal, he has made 8 cuts in 11 Valspar starts and has made a fair amount of cuts.  What a cheap person that could make the cut and do well, Sean O’Hair is your guy at $6,400.  In four PGA Tour starts this year averages 58.6 points per event so he can do well for a cheap price.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to player well at the Valspar Championship

The key stat for the winner:

• In looking at the 20 champions of this event, 12 of them have this in common.  They were in the top-12 in greens hit.  Matter of fact six of them were in the top five including 2019 champion Paul Casey who was T-5th in Greens hit in 2019. So it is crucial to hitting lots of greens, and for those that do, they usually have an advantage.

Here are some more key stats look to for this week:

• This event is one of the hidden gems on the PGA Tour.  Played on a great course,  one thing for sure players respect the course and show up, of its past champions all active players (except for Jordan Spieth and Paul Casey) are in the field.  They played this event in October until 2007, and the change hasn’t made much of a difference other than the rough is a bit healthier now.
• Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses like Bay Hill a couple of weeks ago.  Stats that prove this is first driving distance averages, in 2021 the average of all the drives in the field was 278.4 yards, the 3rd lowest on the PGA Tour.  Since 2005 it’s been in the bottom six every year as the shortest driving average course.  So it only makes sense that when you look at the champions, the only real long drivers were Gary Woodland in 2011 and Vijay Singh in 2004.  All the others were in the middle to back of the pack in average driving distance; so this is the one course that short hitters can do well on.

This chart shows how short the champions have been since 2005:

Year-winner          Driving distance/rank for week      Driving distance all drives/rank for year

2021-Sam Burns                304.4 (12th)                           284.9 (T-17th)

2019-Paul Casey               281.5 (16th)                           288.4 (T-61st)

2018-Paul Casey               280.1 (22nd)                           304.3 (31st)

2017-Adam Hadwin              287.4 (37th)                           283.5 (109th)

2016-Charl Schwartzel         292.0 (T-29th)                         290.5 (30th)

2015-Jordan Spieth            275.3 (T-26th)                         291.8 (T-78th)

2014-John Senden              279.1 (20th)                           282.0 (T87th)

2013-Kevin Streelman          270.8 (48th)                           279.6 (T99th)

2012-Luke Donald              264.1 (75th)                           269.2 (198th)

2011-Gary Woodland            295.5 (7th)                            297.4 (5th)

2010-Jim Furyk                261.0 (73rd)                           273.0 (172nd)

2009-Retief Goosen            283.8 (25th)                           286.2 (43rd)

2008-Sean O’Hair              282.6 (8th)                            287.3 (T30th)

2007-Mark Calcavecchia        276.9 (T34th)                          284.4 (T66th)

2006-K.J. Choi                274.5 (T42nd)                          280.5 (T103rd)

2005-Carl Pettersson          283.9 (40th)                           283.1 (T74th)

• Maybe it’s no coincidence that players that hit it long took this week off as of the top-20 in the driving distance stats for 2022, only nine are in the field this week.  Joseph Bramlett-4th, Brooks Koepka-5th, Justin Thomas-6th, Brandon Hagy-7th, Xander Schauffele-8th, Wyndham Clark-T-13th, Viktor Hovland-14th, Charley Hoffman-T-17th, Trey Mullinax-T-17th, and Sam Burns-20th.
• Florida is always windy this time of year, but this week may not be that bad.
• All the par 5s are within reach of the average player, and though the course is over 7,300 yards, it won’t present much of a problem. Look for lots of par 5 greens to be hit in 2. The average of all the champions on the par 5s is just a notch under 9 under   In 2012 & ’13 both Luke Donald and Kevin Streelman were 9 under on the four par5s, while in 2014 John Senden was 7 under.  Jordan Spieth played the par 5s in 7 under in 2015 and Charl Schwartzel was 9 under on the 5s in 2016.  In 2017 Adam Hadwin played them in 6 under par, in 2018 Paul Casey was 8 under but he was the tournament-best 15 under par in 2019. Last year Sam Burns was 15 under on the par 5s.
• Look at all these facts, and you can conclude that good ball strikers rule the roost at Innsbrook.  This is not your typical Florida type of course because the fairways are tight, the rough will be tall.
• The last seven winners have been gone on to have great seasons as they have finished the year of their win inside the top-30 in FedEx Cup standings, with 2010 champion Jim Furyk and 2015 champion Jordan Spieth winning the FedEx Cup title.

Year-Winner                Final rank FedEx Cup year won

• 2021-Sam Burns                             18th
• 2019-Paul Casey                              5th
• 2018-Paul Casey                             25th
• 2017-Adam Hadwin                        26th
• 2016-Charl Schwartzel                   30th
• 2015-Jordan Spieth                        1st
• 2014-John Senden                        23rd
• 2013-Kevin Streelman                   25th
• 2012-Luke Donald                          9th
• 2011-Gary Woodland                    17th
• 2010-Jim Furyk                              1st

Weather is always of interest, especially the forecast of wind that makes the course play hard.  This week there will be no rain and the wind won’t be blowing, the highest day is Friday at 12 mph, the other three days will be under 10 mph.