BlogWGC – Match Play Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So about the biggest question this week, how much longer will this event be around.  Right now the contract and Austin Country Club is through 2023, but will this be the last stand for the World Golf Championship?  The format looks to be dead on arrival, before the pandemic there were four of them.  The WGC-Workday, which use to be played in Mexico is dead and the WGC-FedEx that moved to Memphis is also dead.  Still alive is the WGC-HSBC Champions played in China, but it’s missed the last two years due to COVID and with all the problems in the world I expect that event will go away.  So it leaves this event and its vulnerable format.

One thing is that after taking it to several courses in two decades, Austin Country Club appears to be the perfect home for the Match Play.  The course may not be liked by 100% of the field like LaCosta was.  But only a tiny handful of players aren’t pleased with Austin C.C.  As for the format, even though I miss the day-to-day shootout in which if you lose your match on Wednesday, you go home only playing one day. But the players like the new round-robin in which they get to play for at least three days.  Even Tiger Woods went out of his way to agree it was nicer to play all three days instead of going home on Wednesday if knocked out  About the only problem of this event is the time of year it’s being played.  It’s wedge two weeks after the Players Championship, four weeks after the WGC-Workday Concession, and two weeks before the Masters, and just after the Players Championship so many don’t like the timing.  We have talked about this before that it would be nice to play it after the Masters at the end of April, but as of now, the Tour, the golf federation, and sponsors are pretty happy with the way the schedule is now.

Another problem solved is the sponsorship issue.  When Accenture left after the 2014 event, the tournament had a problem for the World Federation in securing another sponsor.  Next was the venue, Dove Mountain was barely tolerable but did have a Ritz Carlton for the sponsors, but Tucson wasn’t the draw that many thought it would be.  The course wasn’t a favorite of many except for Ian Poulter, Paul Casey, Matt Kuchar, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson, and Hunter Mahan, who made that site an annuity for them.  It became a disadvantage for many, and even though they didn’t say it, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, and Adam Scott took a pass mainly because of the course.  Many felt that the event should be moved around so that it didn’t give a group of players an advantage each year, but let’s face the one-ton gorilla, and that was the format.  For most, pure Match Play, in which you lose, go home, was not a big winner with players, fans, TV, and the media.  The sight of half of your marquee names going home on Wednesday didn’t help matters either.  In the first 16 years of the tournament, you never had that one grand final with the number one ranked player against the number two.  Even with Tiger Woods making it to the final match four times, it was against Darren Clarke (who beat him), David Toms, Davis Love III, and Stewart Cink.  Guess we should have seen this when the first final match in 1999 pitted superstars Jeff Maggert and Andrew Magee.  In defense of the new format, we saw #1 Dustin Johnson beat #25, Jon Rahm, in 2017.

So in 2014, when Jason Day finally beat Victor Dubuisson on the fifth extra hole, it put an exclamation point onto this event.  Many felt that the event would not continue, which didn’t happen.  But with Accenture out of the picture, the contract with Dove Mountain finished, it was time to reevaluate everything about the Match Play Championship.  It took a bit, but a stop-gap sponsor in Cadillac was found, and the event moved dates to late April, and the venue was Harding Park in San Francisco.  That move was more of a way to appease the city of San Francisco, which had a contract with the PGA Tour to play some events over an extended period.  Still, Harding Park, which held the 2020 PGA Championship,  2009 Presidents Cup, and 2005 WGC-American Express Championship, was a site that people could embrace.  But an essential element that those that ran the championship did was change the format.

It still match play, but no more single-elimination matches the first three days. The field was broken up into 16 four-player groups, and over the first three days, everyone played the other three men in their group, and the player with the best record in each group advanced to the Round of 16.  From there, the event went back to single-elimination match play, but the focus was that all 64 players were around three days, so fans and TV had three great days of action.

The format worked in 2015 after Friday’s play marquee names like Rickie Flower, Hideki Matsuyama, Charl Schwartzel, Lee Westwood, Paul Casey, Jim Furyk, and Rory McIlroy were still playing.  McIlroy went on to win, which helped verify that the format worked.  In 2016 they jiggled a bit the playoff format the first three days, but the three-day round-robin was a big success as the weekend saw lots of marquee players with Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day, with Day winning over British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen.  The same in 2017 when marquee names like Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Zach Johnson, Paul Casey, Jon Rahm, and Bubba Watson played on the weekend, it was another winner.  2018 didn’t see the top players over the weekend. Still, it did hold some marquee names as Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, and Louis Oosthuizen making it to Saturday play, with Sunday consisting of Bubba Watson and Kevin Kisner in the finals and a consultation match of Alex Noren and Justin Thomas.  In 2019 we did see Tiger Woods make it to the quarterfinals only to lose to Lucas Bjerragaard, showing how anyone can beat anyone on any given day.

Along with that, another winner was the course, Austin Country Club.

When announced, not many folks knew about Austin Country Club other than legendary teaching professional Harvey Penick was the club’s resident instructor for over 70 years before his death in 1995.  Another thing was that the club, founded in 1899, built a new course in 1984 and hired Pete Dye to do the course.  Because the course is ultra-private, not many knew how fantastic the course was.  In 2015 they announced the course as the Match Play’s new home for the next four years. It closed for ten months as renovations were done to bring the course up to the modern player’s standards.

The course held up and for five years has been a gem that many players love.  The tournament has risen in stature, but there is still one tiny problem, getting a full slate of the top-64 to play.  This year the fallout factor is the highest since 2001 when they played in Australia.  The six players not participating are #6 Cameron Smith, #7 Rory McIlroy, #11 Hideki Matsuyama, #22 Harris English, #45 Phil Mickelson. On Monday #10 Sam Burns also withdrew..  It’s hard to fathom that players that are healthy like McIlory and Smith would take a pass, but that is their choice, and nothing can be said.  Who knows what future years bring, but not having six of the top-64 is bad and could reflect when it’s time to decide if this event will continue.

Other news, marquee players in great form or not in shape:

Have to say this, going into this week Justin Thomas is on the verge of winning, he is playing that well.  Viktor Hovland continues to play well and we have to wonder when he will get his first in the 48 start United States win will come.  Another person who could be great this week is Matt Fitzpatrick who has finished in the top-12 in five of his last six cuts.  He was T-5th last week at the Valspar Championship.

What a cold way of making an announcement:

As I am writing this news on Phil Mickelson not playing in the Masters.  Normally when a player withdraws he is the one that announces it, but in the case of the Masters’ Bob Harig of Morning Read spouted that Mickelson’s name has been removed from the list of competitors.  According to Harig, The Masters only removes players from that section of the website upon request, and Augusta National confirmed the request was made.  Boy have to say it’s a sad way of making an announcement like this, kind of like breaking up with a person via Twitter.  So with Phil not playing the Masters, we have to think he has been disciplined by the PGA Tour.  Wonder how long this will go on before some kind of official announcement is made.  Hope it comes soon that every rumor under the sun will be made up on Phil.

Tournament information:

This will be the 23rd World Golf Championship – Dell Match Play championship.  Austin Country Club is the sixth different course to hold this championship. In 2015 TPC Harding Park held the event for one year. The previous home was the Golf Club at Dove Mountain for six years, and before that, the Gallery Golf Club held it for two years, before that the LaCosta Spa and Resort, which had 1999, 2000, 2002 through 2006 events. In 2001 the Metropolitan Golf Club in Melbourne, Australia, was the venue.

Course information:

• Austin Country Club
• Austin, Texas
• 7,108 yards     Par 35-36–71

The course has a 75.2 rating and slope rating of 152 from the championship tees. Austin Country Club is a private club eight miles northwest of downtown Austin.  The club was formed in 1899, and the first course was nine holes with sand greens.  It’s believed that the course and club were the first of its kind organized in Texas.  The course grew to 18 holes but in 1949 was deemed to be too small, so the club moved to East Austin and had Perry Maxwell build them a new course.  This would be the course where Tom Kite and Ben Crenshaw would spend so many hours under the watchful eye of Harvey Penick. The Club remained at the Riverside Drive location until 1984, at which time the decision was made to move to the current Davenport Ranch location in the hills of west Austin.

Dye was chosen to create the new course and given 180 acres of diverse terrain that goes from golf in the hills weaving through canyons and woodlands and then juts out to the lowlands with a river border one side of the course.  So there are different natural features to every one of the holes, making it a delight.  You will see a touch of TPC at Sawgrass, Blackwolf Run, and Oak Tree Country Club, to name some courses that have held professional events on them.

More importantly, the course isn’t very long and will have many risks and reward types of shots, the kind that will make for great Match Play golf.  All of the par 5s will be reachable, and the 12th will be the favorite, as water from the river runs the final 150 yards on the left of the hole, goes right up along the left of the green and beyond the green.  So we will see a lot of drama as players decide to go for the green and the shot that it will take to get on.  The next hole plays with water in front of the green and all along the left side.  Since the hole plays 317 yards, it will challenge players to take the driver out and go for it. The only problem the player has to hold a driver on the green, which makes the shot almost impossible.   But players will still try to get it close.

As for the par 3s, all of them are great, from the shortest, the 150 yard, 17th to the longest, the 201 yard, 7th.  All have a safe shot to the middle of the green, but again for match play with the greens tucked away in front of water, bunkers, and ravines, it creates a perfect match play scenario.  That will be the key to the course; it’s ideal for match play.

DraftKings with Match Play games:

2018 was the first year that DraftKings had a game, and it was a lot of fun.  The game is based on winning holes and that your player goes to Sunday.  Like the regular tournament play, you know that to win, you have to get all six players to the weekend, and the way DraftKings has done this game, the same is correct.

Here is how you win or lose points.  If you win a hole, you get 3 points.  If you halve, you get 0.75 points.  If you lose a hole, they subtract 0.75 points.  Now since matches end early, they have a bonus for a player that wins the match. They will receive 1.6 points for each hole not played, which is an essential element to winning.  They also will give 5 points for matches won, and 2 points for a match halved.  There is also a bonus of 5 points for winning 3 consecutive holes won (Max of 1 per round) and the most significant bonus of 7.5 points if you can play a complete match without losing a hole.  Now for the round of 16 (weekend play), playoff holes will count toward the scoring, and the consolation match on Sunday will also get points.  So the big plum comes if out of your six picks, four of them play on Sunday.

I love this game, and it should create a lot of buzz.  It’s different in that you will have to figure out which players make it to the weekend.  For each player that doesn’t win their group (remember there are 16 groups Wed-Fri), you will be at a significant disadvantage.  Again pick the 16 that play the weekend, your chances are a lot better.

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,730
• Scottie Scheffler – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,700
• Collin Morikawa – $10,500
• Viktor Hovland – $10,300
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,200
• Dustin Johnson – $10,000
• Daniel Berger – $9,800
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Bryce DeChambeau – $9,300
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,200
• Paul Casey – $9,100
• Louis Oosthuizen – $9,000

Here is how the groups work out and who will play each other in the first three rounds of the WGC-Dell Match Play:

Let’s look at all 16 groups:

So the groups have been established through a random pick, there are 16 groups of four players in each group.  Each player goes 18 holes with the three other players in the group and the one with the best record moves to the round of 16.  For groups that are tied, a stroke play, hole-by-hole playoff will determine the player who advances to the 16 player, single-elimination matches.  If a game is tied after 18 holes, it’s considered a halve, with play ending.  Now if you’re playing Draftkings you better look for players in that 7,000 to 8,500 range because you can’t take all of the favorites.  So in the group behind, look for that upset and players that will make it to the weekend.

So here are the groups and their ranking with some thoughts on who will win each of the groups:

Group 1: Jon Rahm (1) – Draftkings $11,300, Patrick Reed (34) – Draftkings $7,500, Cameron Young (40) – Draftkings $7,000 & Sebastian Munoz (58) – Draftkings $6,300 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Rahm vs. Munoz, 2:51 p.m.; Reed vs. Young, 3:01 p.m.; Thursday – Rahm vs. Young, 1:22 p.m.; Reed vs. Munoz, 1:33 p.m.; Friday – Rahm vs. Reed, TBD; Young vs. Munoz, TBD

Yes, world #1 looks like the easy pick in this group.  For Young, he has have never played in this event but he is playing well and can beat Reed on Wednesday.  As for Thursday, Rahm will have his hands filled in getting by Young.  As for Munoz and Reed, Munoz played for the first time last year and lost all three of his matches and he isn’t playing great right now.  As for Reed, he has had his moments in his seven previous starts, but his putter is not is usual stuff so look for this group to be decided in the Thursday match between Rahm and Young

Group winner – Jon Rah

Group 2: Collin Morikawa (2) – Draftkings $10,500, Jason Kokrak (22) – Draftkings $7,400, Sergio Garcia (34) – Draftkings $8,300 & Robert MacIntyre (61) – Draftkings $7,300 …

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Morikawa vs. MacIntyre, 11:54 p.m.; Kokrak vs. Garcia, 12:05 p.m.; Thursday – Morikawa vs. Garica, 10:26 a.m.; Kokrak vs. MacIntyre, 10:57 a.m.; Friday – Morikawa vs. Kokrak, TBD; Garcia vs. MacIntyre, TBD

On paper, this looks like a group in which Collin Morikawa will rollover.  But that may not be the case, he isn’t playing great right now (cut at Players and T-68th at Valspar).  On top of this, in his debut in this event, last year lost two matches and halved the third.  MacIntyre is over-matched and Garcia could win this group, but he always has his weak moments.  I kind of like Jason Kokrak, the course seems to be good for him, yes not playing great but he has the type of game that could surprise all

Group winner – Yes I think Kokrak will beat all three of these players, will be a great Friday match between Kokrak and Morikawa. 

Group 3: Viktor Hovland (3) – Draftkings $10,300, Will Zalatoris (24) – Draftkings $8,600, Cameron Tringale (45) – Draftkings $6,500 & Sepp Straka (63) – Draftkings $7,000… 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Hovland vs. Straka, 10:26 a.m.; Zalatoris vs. Tringale, 10:37 a.m.; Thursday – Hovland vs. Tringale, 2:50 p.m.; Zalatoris vs. Straka, 3:01 p.m.; Friday – Hovland vs. Zalatoris, TBD; Tringale vs. Straka, TBD

Another of these pods looks one-sided towards one player, in this case, Viktor Hovland.  Viktor didn’t play well in his debut last year but is playing well now.  Zalatoris and Tringale will be tough, think that Straka is spent and tired and won’t do well.  Again the Friday match between Hovland and Zalatoris will be for all the marbles with Hovland sneaking by

Group winner – Viktor Hovland

Group 4: Patrick Cantlay (4) – Draftkings $10,200, Sungjae Im (21) – Draftkings $8,200, Seamus Power (42) – Draftkings $6,700 & Keith Mitchell (63) – Draftkings $7,100  …

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Cantlay vs. Mitchell, 1:22 p.m.; Im vs. Power, 1:33 p.m.;Thursday – Cantlay vs. Power, 11:54 a.m.; Im vs. Mitchell, 12:05 p.m; Friday – Cantlay vs. Im, TBD; Power vs. Mitchell, TBD

Sorry but see this pod going easily to Cantlay

Group Winner – Patrick Cantlay should have an easy time.

Group 5: Scottie Scheffler (5) – Draftkings $11,000, Matt Fitzpatrick (20) – Draftkings $8,700, Tommy Fleetwood (41) – Draftkings $8,000 & Ian Poulter (59) – Draftkings $6,600  … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Scheffler vs. Poulter, 12:37 p.m.; Fitzpatrick vs. Fleetwood, 12:38 p.m.; Thursday – Scheffler vs. Fleetwood, 11:10 a.m.; Fitzpatrick vs. Poulter, 11:21 a.m.; Friday – Scheffler vs. Fitzpatrick, TBD; Fleetwood vs. Poulter, TBD

Can anyone beat Scheffler?  This is one of the toughest pods this year, any one of these players could win.  Again we are lucky that all the marbles go down to the Scheffler/Fitzpatrick on Friday and I see Fitzpatrick winning.  Still, Ian Poulter has done great things in this event and he is a great match player, still think he is showing his age and will go down.

Group winner – Matt Fitzpatrick

Group 6: Justin Thomas (6) – Draftkings $10,700, Kevin Kisner (29) – Draftkings $7,600, Marc Leishman (37) – Draftkings $7,500 & Luke List (53) – Draftkings $6,400  … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Thomas vs. list, 9:42 a.m.; Kisner vs. Leishman, 9:43 a.m.; Thursday – Thomas vs. Leishman, 2:06 p.m.; Kisner vs. List, 2:17 p.m.; Friday – Thomas vs. Kisner, TBD; Leishman vs. Kisner, TBD

Come on will anyone be able to beat Thomas.  His game is getting sharper each time he plays and even though Kisner has done good things at Austin C.C. and Leishman can win.  Same with List, but if Thomas does his business like we think he could be unbeatable not only in this pod but for the whole week.

Group winner – Justin Thomas.

Group 7: Xander Schauffele (7) – Draftkings $9,600, Tony Finau (18) – Draftkings $7,800,  Lucas Herbert (29) – Draftkings $6,000 & Takumi Kanaya (56) – Draftkings $6,000 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Schauffele vs. Kanaya, 11:10 a.m.; Finau vs. Herbert, 11:21 a.m.; Thursday – Schauffele vs. Herbert, 9:42 a.m.; Finau vs. Kanaya, 9:53 a.m.; Friday – Schauffele vs. Finau, TBD; Herbert vs. Kanaya, TBD

On paper, this should be a very easy pod for Xander Schauffele to win.  But we know when you least expect it a Takumi Kanaya or a Lucas Herbert could find that special magic.  Still don’t see that happening.

Group winner – Xander Schauffele

Group 8: Dustin Johnson (8) – Draftkings $10,000, Max Homa (30) – Draftkings $7,700, Matthew Wolff (38) – Draftkings $6,200 & Mackenzie Hughes (51) – Draftkings $6,400  … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Johnson vs. Hughes, 2:06 p.m.; Homa vs. Wolff, 2:17 p.m.; Thursday – Johnson vs. Wolff, 12:38 p.m.; Homa vs. Hughes, 12:49 p.m.; Friday – Johnson vs. Homa, TBD; Wolff vs. Hughes, TBD

On paper, this should be an easy Johnson victory.  But nothing is ever easy for Johnson and I see it coming down to his Friday match with Max Homa with Homa beating him.

Group winner – Max Homa

Group 9: Bryson DeChambeau (9) – Draftkings $9,300, Talor Gooch (27) – Draftkings $7,700, Lee Westwood (47) – Draftkings $6,300 & Richard Bland (54) – Draftkings $6,000  … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – DeChambeau vs. Bland, 1:44 p.m.; Gooch vs. Westwood, 1:55 p.m.; Thursday – DeChambeau vs. Westwood, 12:16 p.m.; Bland vs. Gooch, 12:27 p.m.; Friday – DeChambeau vs. Gooch, TBD; Westwood vs. Bland, TBD

Have to say of all the matches and pods, DeChambeau got the easiest one.  But we haven’t seen DeChambeau play in almost two months and nothing seems easy for DeChambeau.  Watch Talor Gooch walking away with this pod as he clubbers DeChambeau on Friday

Group winner – Talor Gooch

Group 10: Louis Oosthuizen (10) – Draftkings $9,000, Paul Casey (19) – Draftkings $9,100, Corey Conners (36) – Draftkings $7,300 & Alex Noren (50) – Draftkings $7,800  …

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Oosthuizen vs. Noren, 10:48 a.m.; Casey vs. Conners, 10:59 a.m.; Thursday – Oosthuizen vs. Conners, 9:20 a.m.; Casey vs. Noren, 9:31 a.m.; Friday – Oosthuizen vs. Casey, TBD; Conners vs. Noren, TBD

On paper, Paul Casey is playing well right now and should win.  Oosthuizen looked terrible on the weekend at Valspar and Conners has struggled most of the year.  Noren has had his moments at this event and has an 8-1-0 record in pod play so look for Noren to advance

Group winner – Alex Noren

Group 11: Jordan Spieth (11) – Draftkings $8,900, Adam Scott (32) – Draftkings $8,100, Justin Rose (46) – Draftkings $6,900 & Keegan Bradley (60) – Draftkings $6,900  …

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Spieth vs. Bradley, 9:20 a.m.; Scott vs. Rose, 9:31 a.m.; Thursday – Spieth vs. Rose, 1:44 p.m.; Scott vs. Bradley, 1:55 p.m.; Friday – Spieth vs. Scott, TBD; Rose vs. Bradley, TBD

Spieth has played a lot of golf at Austin C.C. and I can see him going through and winning this pod.  Still, all three of the other players have won majors and won’t roll over, Spieth will have to play well to beat all three

Group winner – Jordan Spieth

Group 12: Billy Horschel (12) – Draftkings $8,800, Thomas Pieters (26) – Draftkings $6,800, Tom Hoge (33) – Draftkings $6,800 & Min Woo Lee (49) – Draftkings $6,100 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Horschel vs. Lee, 12:16 p.m.; Pieters vs. Hoge, 12:27 p.m.; Thursday – Horschel vs. Hoge, 10:48 a.m.; Pieters vs. Lee, 10:59 p.m.; Friday – Horschel vs. Pieters, TBD; Hoge vs. Lee, TBD

Tough to be defending champion but Horschel has a really easy pod, two players Lee and Hoge are rookies and Pieters record is weak in three years he has played.  So look for Horschel to get through.

Group winner – Billy Horschel

Group 13: Tyrrell Hatton (13) – Draftkings $9,200, Daniel Berger (17) – Draftkings $9,800, Si Woo Kim (48) – Draftkings $7,100 & Christiaan Bezuidenhout (52) – Draftkings $7,200 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Hatton vs. Bezuidenhout, 1:00 p.m.; Berger vs. Kim, 1:11 p.m.; Thursday – Hatton vs. Kim, 11:32 a.m.; Berger vs. Bezuidenhout, 12:53 p.m.; Friday – Hatton vs. Berger, TBD; Kim vs. Bezuidenhout, TBD

So while Horschel will have an easy time in his pod, this pod will be one of the toughest.  All for of these players can win and all of them will make this pod a really hard one to advance to the next stage.  Again perfect Friday pairings as I think the winner of the Hatton/Berger match will be the winner.

Group winner – Daniel Berger

Group 14: Joaquin Niemann (14) – Draftkings $8,600, Kevin Na (25) – Draftkings $6,600, Russell Henley (34) – Draftkings $7,900 & Maverick McNealy (64) – Draftkings $6,200 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Niemann vs. McNealy, 10:04 a.m.; Na vs. Henley, 10:15 a.m.; Thursday – Niemann vs. Henley, 2:28 p.m.; Na vs. McNealy, 2:39 p.m.; Friday – Niemann vs. Na, TBD; Henley vs. McNealy, TBD

Niemann should have the inside track, Kevin Na is coming back after the birth of a child.  Henley hasn’t play well this year but McNealy could be sneaky in his debut.  Still can’t see anyone beating Niemann

Group winner – Joaquin Niemann

Group 15: Abraham Ancer (15) – Draftkings $7,900, Webb Simpson (31) – Draftkings $7,400, Brian Harman (44) – Draftkings $7,600 & Bubba Watson (57) – Draftkings $7,200 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Ancer vs. Watson, 11:32 a.m.; Simpson vs. Harman, 11:43 a.m.; Thursday – Ancer vs. Harman, 10:04 a.m.; Simpson vs. Watson, 10:15 a.m.; Friday – Ancer vs. Simpson, TBD; Harman vs. Watson, TBD

A very hard pod to predict, Watson has won this event at Austin and will play well.  Simpson and Ancer have played well but not of late.  But I see Brian Harman doing very well, hey he was T-5th last year and T-9th in 2018.

Group winner – Brian Harman

Group 16: Brooks Koepka (16) – Draftkings $9,400, Shane Lowry (28) – Draftkings $8,400, Harold Varner III (35) – Draftkings $6,700 & Erik van Rooyen (55) – Draftkings $6,500 … 

SCHEDULE: Wednesday – Koepka vs. van Rooyen, 2:28 p.m.; Lowry vs. Varner III, 2:39 p.m.; Thursday – Koepka vs. Varner III, 1:00 p.m.; Lowry vs. van Rooyen, 1:11 p.m.; Friday – Koepka vs. Lowry, TBD; Varner III vs. van Rooyen, TBD

On paper, Brooks Koepka should be the winner, but he hasn’t played well in a while and hasn’t been that great at Austin C.C.  Shane Lowry has never done well in his six Match Play starts and I can’t see Erick van Rooyen winning so that leaves Harold Varner III in his Match Play debut to advance

Group winner – Yes look for the upset by Harold Varner III.

DraftKings Strategy

Again you have to be sure that you find those longshot winners in each pod.  As for my dream pick for Draftkings and why:

Justin Thomas – $10,700

I like that not only does Thomas is playing great right now but I see him being able to hold off Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman, and Luke List.  So I can see clear sailings for Thomas throughout the matches

Patrick Cantlay – $10,200

Like his pod in which none of the players are hot right now and Cantlay is born to win this event.  Still, he will have to play well and he is a lot of money.

Paul Casey at $9,100

Could be an easy pod for Casey but it will come down to the Thursday match with Alex Noren.   The winner of that match will go on.  Still, people tend to forget that Casey won the Match Play Championship on the European Tour in 2006 and he has played well in the Ryder Cup.

Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,700

He is playing well and is probably the hottest player in the field.  He still will have three tough matches against some really good players but I can see him winning all of this.

Will Zalatoris at $8,600

If he can get the putter hot he could go all the way.  Still looking for a good week from him, he can win two matches, but can he win all three?  Think he will get a long way in this event but he does have to beat Viktor Hovland on Friday.

Alex Noren at $7,800

Good record in this event he could surprise a lot of people and not only win his pod but go all the way and win this event.

Brian Herman at $7,600

His pod can be won and he has the talent to do it.

Ian Poulter at $6,600

Always plays well in Match Play and he needs a great finish to get into the Masters, he could be a big surprise.

One other big important point in making DraftKings picks for the Match Play.  When you pick your six guys, make sure you don’t pick two in the same pod, that is like working against you.  Remember the most important thing that you have to do is look at the 16 pods and pick your winners, kind of like what I did above.  When you have your 16 winners, it’s now down to doing the math work to try and get as many top players along with players that aren’t costly.  It’s also important to look at your 16 and pick which players will have the easiest group.

Have fun and good luck.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

On the PGA Tour, some players look more at a big check instead of playing to win.  These players are dangerous in match play because they have only one thing to think about, winning.  So in some respects this year’s 11 Dell rookies (Richard Bland, Lucas Herbert, Tom Hoge, Takumi Kanaya, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, Sepp Straka, Cameron Tringale, Harold Varner III, Min Woo Lee, and Cameron Young.

Just look at what happened in 2018, tournament rookies Cameron Smith made it to the quarterfinals, and Brian Harman made it to the round of 16 before he was beaten by past winner Bubba Watson.  There are other factors, just look at what happened to Tiger Woods in 2002 when he got beat in the first round by Peter O’Malley or even in 2013 when Charles Howell III beat him on Wednesday.  So don’t think that just because Jon Rahm, who is the number one draw is a better player than the 40th draw Cameron Young on Thursday.  When you see some pairings of a superstar against a lesser name player like Richard Bland, Lucas Herbert, or Maverick McNealy on paper the match looks like David versus Goliath.  We all know what happened in that story, it’s happened before and will happen in years to come.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Matchplay is a rare format on the PGA Tour.  Even though it’s a game that is played regularly in golf clubs worldwide, it’s not played that much on the PGA Tour.  The secret to winning in match play is not playing the best, but, more importantly, avoiding doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.  In many matches, someone could be striking the ball perfectly and putting well while his opponent could be hitting it all around the lot, missing greens but chipping in for halves on holes.  Before you know it, that match could come down to the final hole, and the player that isn’t doing the best could chip in and win a match.  It happens all the time.  Remember, a score doesn’t mean anything in match play.
• This is also a different format.  Just because you lose that first-round match on the 18th hole doesn’t mean that you are on a plane home that night.  You still have two more matches and could suddenly find your game and find yourself winning your group.  So it’s vital to take each match at a time and not worry if you’re playing poorly one day.  A perfect example of this was in 2019, Matt Kuchar halved his match with Jon Rahm but still won his pod and went into the finals losing to Kisner.  And talking about Kisner in 2018, he halved his first-round match to Adam Hadwin but was still able to win his group and went to the finals before losing to Bubba Watson.  So the point, anything can happen in this format.
• A couple of things that can help you pick a winner are looking at those with good match play records.  Past winners of the U.S. Amateur like Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland know how to win in this format, so they have a bit of an advantage. Also, look at how robust Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia have been in the Ryder Cup. Those who have won other match play events like Paul Casey and Ian Poulter, who won the Match Play on the European Tour, do well in playoffs or leads.
• In the past, the most challenging place to pick winners was the first round.  You were a superstar if you chose half of them right.  Now the first round means nothing, so look for more marquee players dominating the first three days and getting into the round of 16 on Saturday morning.  Again seeds mean nothing anymore.

Some secrets to playing at Austin Country Club:

• Austin Country Club is perfect for match play because the course isn’t long, it’s not very tight, and the greens are generous.  But with all of the changes, there are many bunkers in the fairways that will catch wayward drives.  Making the bunkers hard, they are deep and could be impossible to get to the green.  Also, lot’s of hazards to avoid, and you will see a lot of them if you are going for a tight pin position.  In some ways hitting first to the green, you control what your opponent will do based on your shot.  If you can put pressure on him, he will lose holes.  But if you don’t hit the perfect shot and get yourself in trouble, it makes it easy for your opponent to hit the middle of the green and make par to win the hole.
• Greens have a lot of undulations.  Good putters and scramblers will help a player savage his match.
• Driving will be a key.  Just like at Augusta National, you have to place a drive in an excellent spot to have a good shot to the green.  The length is short, but if you don’t put your drives in the right spot, it will be hard to get close to your shot to the green.  So a straight driver will have an advantage over a long hitter this week.
• Weather will not play a role except as every day it will be in the low 80s.  Wind will blow at just 5 mph each day so things couldn’t be perfect.