BlogValero Texas Open Preview and Picks

Valero Texas Open

March 31st – April 3rd, 2022

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

San Antonio, TX

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,494

Purse: $8.6 million

with $1,548,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jordan Spieth

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 31 of the top 100 and 8 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings: #9 Rory McIlroy, #12 Hideki Matsuyama, #14 Bryson DeChambeau, #16 Abraham Ancer, #17 Jordan Spieth, #23 Tony Finau, #32 Corey Conners, #49 Takumi Kanaya, #53 Richard Bland, #54 Si Woo Kim, #58 Luke List, #59 Min Woo Lee, #60 Lee Westwood, #67 Ian Poulter, #69 Keegan Bradley, #70 Maverick McNealy, #73 Robert MacIntyre, #75 Ryan Palmer, #77 Hudson Swafford, #79 K.H. Lee, #82 Garrick Higgo, #83 Matt Jones, #85 Chris Kirk, #86 Jhonattan Vegas, #88 Kevin Streelman, #89 Anirban Lahiri, #92 Gary Woodland, #93 Lanto Griffin, #94 Branden Grace, #97 Mito Pereira and #98 Troy Merritt.

There were 8 players from the top-50 in the field last year so the same amount of top-50 this year.

The field includes 3 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2022.  Those players are #4 Hideki Matsuyama, #11 Luke List, and #22 Maverick McNealy.

The field includes 9 past champions: Jordan Spieth (2021), Corey Conners (2019), Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), Brendan Steel (2011) and Zach Johnson (2008 & ’09).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Valero Texas Open field is our performance chart listed by the average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Valero Texas Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Valero Texas Open.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Valero Texas Open

Player WGC-Dell Match Play Corales Valspar Champ. The Players Arnold Palmer Puerto Rico Honda Classic Genesis Invitational Phoenix Open AT&T Pebble Farmers Insurance Dubai Desert American Express
Corey Conners
(187.67 pts)
3
(135)
DNP DNP T26
(36)
T11
(26)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T38
(4)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Chad Ramey
(159 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T39
(3.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Keegan Bradley
(152.83 pts)
T35
(22.5)
DNP CUT
(-10)
5
(105)
T11
(26)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
T26
(8)
DNP T65
(0)
DNP DNP
Adam Hadwin
(140.17 pts)
DNP DNP T7
(55)
T9
(67.5)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T26
(8)
T16
(11.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
Anirban Lahiri
(134.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP 2
(150)
T74
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T46
(1.33)
DNP 66
(0)
Abraham Ancer
(133.5 pts)
T5
(105)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T33
(25.5)
DNP DNP DNP T39
(7.33)
T43
(2.33)
DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
Brian Stuard
(116 pts)
DNP T7
(55)
T16
(34)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T22
(18.67)
T9
(30)
T61
(0)
T58
(0)
T60
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Russell Knox
(109.33 pts)
DNP DNP T57
(0)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP T55
(0)
T33
(11.33)
T33
(5.67)
T33
(5.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Rory McIlroy
(106.83 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T33
(25.5)
T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP 3
(30)
DNP
Kevin Streelman
(106.67 pts)
DNP DNP T7
(55)
T22
(42)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T39
(3.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Sahith Theegala
(106.67 pts)
DNP T22
(28)
T7
(55)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
T3
(30)
T65
(0)
T25
(8.33)
DNP T33
(5.67)
Maverick McNealy
(104.5 pts)
T17
(49.5)
DNP DNP T46
(6)
73
(0)
DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T33
(5.67)
T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP
Gary Woodland
(104.33 pts)
DNP DNP T21
(29)
CUT
(-15)
T5
(46.67)
DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Alex Smalley
(103 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T38
(8)
DNP T55
(0)
72
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T56
(0)
DNP T25
(8.33)
Richard Bland
(100.83 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP
Davis Riley
(95.67 pts)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T42
(5.33)
DNP DNP T49
(0.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T59
(0)
Jhonattan Vegas
(93.67 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
T27
(23)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP T42
(5.33)
T55
(0)
DNP DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ben Martin
(93.33 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Si Woo Kim
(90.5 pts)
T18
(48)
DNP DNP WD
(-7.5)
T26
(16)
DNP DNP 73
(0)
T26
(8)
DNP T11
(13)
DNP T11
(13)
Matthew NeSmith
(90.33 pts)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP T25
(16.67)
T55
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T65
(0)
T34
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Patton Kizzire
(90.33 pts)
DNP DNP T33
(17)
T22
(42)
T32
(12)
DNP DNP T61
(0)
T10
(13.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T22
(9.33)
Nate Lashley
(88.67 pts)
DNP T15
(35)
T27
(23)
DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T28
(7.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
David Lipsky
(85 pts)
DNP T7
(55)
T68
(0)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP T55
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T24
(8.67)
T56
(0)
DNP T14
(12)
Nick Taylor
(80.67 pts)
DNP T25
(25)
T70
(0)
DNP T32
(12)
DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T14
(12)
T30
(6.67)
DNP T33
(5.67)
Doug Ghim
(75.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(90)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T49
(0.33)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP T59
(0)
Chris Kirk
(73.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-15)
T5
(46.67)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T14
(12)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ryan Brehm
(73 pts)
DNP DNP T66
(0)
CUT
(-15)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Pat Perez
(66.5 pts)
DNP DNP T70
(0)
T33
(25.5)
T42
(5.33)
DNP DNP T39
(7.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T9
(15)
T6
(20)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Matthias Schwab
(66.33 pts)
DNP T44
(6)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP T49
(0.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Ian Poulter
(63.33 pts)
T35
(22.5)
DNP DNP T33
(25.5)
T42
(5.33)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Rasmus Hojgaard
(61 pts)
DNP 6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T47
(1)
DNP
Takumi Kanaya
(57.5 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Luke List
(55 pts)
T35
(22.5)
DNP DNP WD
(-7.5)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T53
(0)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP T22
(9.33)
Jordan Spieth
(53.5 pts)
T35
(22.5)
DNP DNP CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(16)
T60
(0)
2
(33.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Beau Hossler
(52.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-15)
T20
(20)
DNP T16
(22.67)
T48
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
3
(30)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Brendan Steele
(51.5 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(55.5)
T26
(16)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Tyler Duncan
(50.67 pts)
DNP T28
(22)
T25
(25)
DNP DNP T35
(10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T49
(0.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Hideki Matsuyama
(50.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T20
(20)
DNP DNP T39
(7.33)
T8
(16.67)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP
Troy Merritt
(49.67 pts)
DNP DNP T27
(23)
T46
(6)
T74
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T38
(4)
T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Kramer Hickok
(49.33 pts)
DNP T13
(37)
T33
(17)
T42
(12)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Brice Garnett
(47.83 pts)
DNP T58
(0)
T27
(23)
T50
(1.5)
DNP T7
(36.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 70
(0)
Mito Pereira
(46.33 pts)
DNP DNP T27
(23)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP T30
(13.33)
T15
(23.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T25
(8.33)
DNP DNP
Denny McCarthy
(44.67 pts)
DNP DNP T48
(2)
T60
(0)
T61
(0)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP T6
(20)
Dylan Frittelli
(44.17 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T50
(1.5)
T42
(5.33)
DNP T16
(22.67)
T26
(16)
CUT
(-3.33)
T24
(8.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Lee Hodges
(44 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
70
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T9
(30)
T39
(7.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T3
(30)
Robert MacIntyre
(42.5 pts)
T35
(22.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Sam Ryder
(42 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T60
(0)
T61
(0)
DNP T9
(30)
T26
(16)
T23
(9)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T49
(0.33)
Max McGreevy
(42 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T48
(2)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Doc Redman
(41 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T39
(11)
T26
(36)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T61
(0)
DNP T33
(5.67)
T25
(8.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Greyson Sigg
(39.67 pts)
DNP T25
(25)
T48
(2)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T33
(5.67)
T34
(5.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
J.J. Spaun
(39.67 pts)
DNP DNP T27
(23)
CUT
(-15)
T52
(0)
DNP T30
(13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T16
(11.33)
T34
(5.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
Scott Stallings
(37 pts)
DNP DNP T16
(34)
T42
(12)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T21
(9.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T46
(1.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Martin Trainer
(35.33 pts)
DNP T7
(55)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T48
(1.33)
DNP T43
(2.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T55
(0)
Justin Lower
(35 pts)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP T35
(10)
T64
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Andrew Novak
(34.33 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T70
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Valero Texas Open

Player WGC-Dell Match Play Corales Valspar Champ. The Players Arnold Palmer Puerto Rico Honda Classic Genesis Invitational Phoenix Open AT&T Pebble Farmers Insurance Dubai Desert American Express
Henrik Norlander
(-45 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T63
(0)
Chesson Hadley
(-40 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
T63
(0)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Matt Wallace
(-36.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T35
(5)
DNP
Kyle Stanley
(-35.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T16
(22.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
James Hahn
(-35 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP T61
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
David Skinns
(-33.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Roger Sloan
(-33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP T55
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T14
(12)
Kevin Tway
(-32.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T48
(1.33)
T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T46
(1.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Stephan Jaeger
(-30.33 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-15)
T52
(0)
DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP T62
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Bronson Burgoon
(-29.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T66
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T74
(0)
DNP T49
(0.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off.  Despite having a great sponsor, this event hasn’t been a marquee stop on the PGA Tour, and for many, they will continue the tradition this week. It doesn’t matter when it’s played, in September, in April, or the week before the Masters, it’s hard to get marquee players to this event.  Kind of a shame, the course is good and is an excellent test for getting the ball in the fairway and on the greens, which players will be doing next week at the Masters.  Maybe the problem is something simple like the players don’t like the course, or perhaps the wind, which always seems to be around in this event, is a turn-off for players.  The last thing in the world they want to do is play in wind and screw up their swings before a major.  But of the 144 in the field, only 23 are going on to Augusta National (same as last year).

Winning a major the week after winning on the PGA Tour

We talk about this all the time when the majors come around.  Is it good for a player to participate the week before?  Now in most cases that player is trying to get ready to play in a major.  The last thing most of these players think about is winning, of course, they want to get their games ready and don’t want to spend the energy it takes to win a week too early.

Now in the history of the majors going back to 1950, only six times has a player won the week before winning a major.  Here is the list:

  • Rory McIlroy – Won WGC Bridgestone Invitational followed by the 2014 PGA Championship
  • Tiger Woods – Won WGC Bridgestone Invitational followed by the 2007 PGA Championship
  • Phil Mickelson – Won BellSouth Classic followed by the 2006 Masters Tournament
  • Sandy Lyle – Won Greater Greensboro Open followed by the 1988 Masters Tournament
  • Lee Trevino – Won the Canadian Open followed by the 1971 British Open
  • Art Wall – Won the Azalea Open followed by the 1959 Masters Tournament

Now another thing we should talk about is how rare it is to win back to back on the PGA Tour.  In 2018 Bryson DeChambeau won the Northern Trust and Dell Technologies and in the five years since the feat has only been done twice.  First in the 2020 Bermuda Championship and Mayakoba Golf Classic (they were played with a week off in between) and then last year when Patrick Cantlay won the BMW followed by the Tour Championship.  So yes it’s hard to win back to back.

Last year Jordan Spieth found himself in that position, all he wanted to do was get ready for the Masters by playing in the Valero Texas Open.  But after rounds of 67-70-67, he found himself tied for the lead with Matt Wallace going into the final round.  In that round, he shot 66 to claim a two-shot win.  It was an exciting time for Spieth, winning for the first time since 2017, more than 1,350 days, and 83 starts since winning the 2017 British Open.  But he spent a lot of energy on winning, you just don’t win a tournament without using physical and mental energy and it showed at the Masters.  He shot 71-68-72-70 to finish T-3rd, just three shots back of winner Hideki Matsuyama and he has talked about yes he didn’t have the same energy at Augusta.

Now this phenomenon has happened to many great players, Justin Thomas knows the feeling.  He was 13 under in his three-shot win at the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational win.  By the time he flew out to San Francisco for the PGA Championship, he was mentally drained shooting rounds of 71-70-68-70 to finish T-37th and 12 shots back of winner Collin Morikawa.  Now, this wasn’t Thomas’s first roadie in this, in 2018 Thomas did the same thing, peaking too early at the WGC-Bridgestone at Firestone.  He shot rounds of 65-64-67-69 to lead from the second round onward and won by four shots.  Going to St. Louis for the PGA Championship, Thomas shot 69-65-68-68 but was six shots back of winner Brooks Koepka.  Again his energy and mental capacity were spent by the weekend as he finished T-6th.

Rory McIlroy also knows the feeling, he went to the 2019 RBC Canadian Open to get ready for the U.S. Open.  But his game peaked a week too early, with rounds of 67-66-64-61 he won the tournament by seven shots.  McIlroy was still playing well at Pebble shooting 68-69 but could feel a loss of energy shooting 70-72 over the weekend to finish T-9th, eight shots back of winner Gary Woodland.

Also knowing the feeling was Dustin Johnson who was putting together a memorable year in 2018.  He won for the third time that year with a six-shot victory at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  He played great and carried it over to the Shinnecock Hills and the U.S. Open shooting 69-67 to own the second-round lead.  On a tough scoring day on Saturday, he shot 77 and had a share of the lead going into the final round, but he could only muster up a 70 and was beaten when Brooks Koepka shot 68 to win by two shots.

That is the problem, you go to a tournament and you find yourself in contention and the energy you were going to spend at a major, goes into the week before, and instead of being well-rested for that major, you’re mentally drained.  So for this week Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, and even Jordan Spieth know all of this but feel it’s best for their Masters’ prep to play this week, we will see.

The hottest player in the game, Scottie Scheffler

Hard to believe just two months ago that Scottie Scheffler was a struggling player looking for that first win.  We all know that he was good, but leaving San Diego after finishing T-20th at the Farmers many were wondering when that first win would come.  It came just two weeks later when he beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win the Phoenix Open in his 71st PGA Tour start.  Now a funny thing happened just before the Phoenix win, Scheffler changed putters, and shall we say that was the start of a great thing.  That win opened up the floodgates, the next week he was T-7th at the Genesis Invitational and then two weeks later won again at the Arnold Palmer.  If that wasn’t enough, Scheffler did it again at the WGC-Dell Match Play.  He did it by beating Ian Poulter, Matt Fitzpatrick, Billy Horschel, Seamus Power, Dustin Johnson, and Kevin Kisner to win his third title and at the same time, he captured the number one spot in the Official World Golf Ranking.  On route to his number one ranking, he broke two records previously owned by Tiger Woods.  One of the records broken was for the fewest days between his first PGA Tour title and reaching the #1 spot.  It took Tiger Woods 252 days between Woods’ victory at the 1996 Las Vegas Invitational, while Scheffler did it in just 42 days.

Another record Scheffler broke, of the 25 players that have been #1 in the rankings, 23 needed more than a year after breaking into the top ten to get to #1.  Now Tiger held the record of just nine weeks, but Scheffler achieved the feat in just six weeks.  Now Scheffler has always been high in the rankings, he broke into the top-100 with his win in the 2019 Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship.  He was able to break into the top-50 a couple of months later with a T-26th finish in the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship.  Just last year with his runner-up finish at the same Match Play Championship Scheffler broke into the top-25 of the rankings, so he has been knocking on the door for a while.

With the win at the Match Play, the big question is if he is the guy to beat at the Masters?  Last year he was T-18th and the year before T-19th, so yes his chances are very good.  The big question will be how fresh will Scheffler be?  He is taking this week off so he should be fresh next week, but he will be on everybody’s radar scope as he will be one of the favorites.  Hard to believe that on betting sites Jon Rahm is still the favorite at 9 to 1, while Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are next at 12 to 1 followed by Rory McIlroy at 14 to 1.  The oddsmakers have Scheffler at 16 to 1 along with Cameron Smith which seems high.

So who are the ones to watch going into the Valero Texas Open?  In looking through our hot index you have to go down to the 24th player to find one playing in this event.  The hottest player in the field is Chad Ramey who won last week at the Corales.  Now he missed the cut at Valspar, but Ramey was T-5th at Puerto Rico but I honestly have very little faith in him.  Of the others, you have to look at Maverick McNealy who was T-9th last week at the Match Play, or Abraham Ancer who was T-5th at the Match Play.  But honestly, you have to look at those that have played well in this event, the person that really sticks out is Charley Hoffman but boy he has played terrible in 2021 with only one top-25 finish.  So Corey Conners who won in 2019 is the next best followed by Spieth and McIlroy.  Brandt Snedeker always plays well at TPC San Antonio, but Snedeker has missed his last five cuts so it would be a leap of faith to choose him.  Abraham Ancer is a possibility, he hasn’t been great at TPC San Antonio but makes the cut and could get hot.  If we are looking for a leap of faith maybe it’s time to pick Richie Fowler.  He has been lost of late, for the first time he wasn’t qualified for either the Players and the Match Play.  Who knows maybe Flower sat home and watched those events and maybe it will get his blood going.  But one thing about picking a winner this week, take the person you least expect to win so maybe Charley Hoffman or Brandt Snedker aren’t bad picks.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is a historic tournament; it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf worldwide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour, and the longest held in the same city.  This is the 100th anniversary of the first one played in 1922 at Brackenridge Park.  That one was won by Robert MacDonald and in 1923 Walter Hagen won.  The list of winners is good, along with Hagen Byron Nelson won along with Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer won three in a row between 1960 and 1962. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the event has predominantly been hosted by the Brackenridge Park Golf Course, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, Oak Hills Country Club, and between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera.  12 years ago they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, which is part of a two-course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low on, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. Al Brosch, in the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open.  But at TPC San Antonio not many records are broken as the course is very tough.

Course information:
  • TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course)
  • San Antonio, Tx.
  • 7,438 yards     Par 36-36–72
  • AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains, Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens, and Bandera in the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay on the path, and its members.
  • The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour.  It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.
  • The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio last year was 72.48 and it was the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2019 the course played to a 71.24 average, the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2017 the scoring average was 72.85, and it was the 10th hardest course on tour. In 2016 the scoring average was 72.21 and was the 17th hardest course on tour.  In 2015 it was 74.52 and the second hardest course on the PGA Tour.
  • In 2014 the TPC San Antonio was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.286 average, playing a shot and a quarter over par.
  • In 2013 the TPC San Antonio was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.740 average playing .740 strokes over par.
  • There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move is financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which has been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood.  The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,438 yards and a par 72.  It was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted.  The course opened in 2009 and is one of the 12 TPC courses that will be used on the PGA Tour this season.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in TPC San Antonio.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from the last year’s Valero Texas Open (won by Jordan Spieth), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio last year was 72.48, and it was the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The event was not played in 2020 due to COVID-19, but in 2019 the course played to a 71.24 average and was the 28th highest on the PGA Tour. In the decade the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. Previously the course had played hard. In the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is the winds; the area is notorious for having winds. Back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and lack of winds. In 2018 the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot around tougher than in 2019 as it ranked 12th. In 2017 the course played to a 72.85 average, the 10th hardest in 2016, the course to a 72.21 average, and the 17th hardest course. In 2015, with challenging conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on Tour. So we can see, TPC San Antonio can be a brute between it being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So weather is always important for this week, and looking at the long-range forecast we can see it’s going to be pretty good with temperatures in the mid to high 80s each day and no rain. Now the winds will blow between 9 and 15 MPH, with Friday having winds of 15 mph and Sunday at 11 mph, which will be challenging for the players.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the most challenging courses the Tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important, last year it ranked 22nd out of 39 courses in driving distance (all 14 drives measured). So with an average drive of 290.2 years, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. Last year’s winner Jordan Spieth was T-15th in this stat as his average drive was 297.7 yards. In looking at the past winners of this event since it’s been played at the Canyons course in 2010, only three of the ten winners have been in the top ten in driving distance. Going a step further in looking at the list of winners, they have a lot of short hitters winning this event. Between 2017 and 2019, the three champions, Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. So long hitters don’t rule the roast at this venue.
So you may think on the other end of the spectrum, accuracy is essential. That’s not the case either. Of the last seven winners going back to 2014, only one champion was in the top-25 of driving accuracy, and that was 2019 winner Corey Conners who was T-7th in his victory.
Still, you can see those results in fairway accuracy. The course was 11th last year with a 55.03 average, it was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average, it was 19th on Tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so it’s crucial to place drives in the fairway.
But one of the keys is hitting greens. Last year the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. In 2017 it was 3rd, in 2016, it was the 15th hardest, in 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top-17 in greens in regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat. Now Jordan Spieth ruined this stat as he ranked T-57th in Greens in Regulation, the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. Despite that, our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Despite not hitting many greens, last year’s winner Spieth was 3rd in this key stat as the field made it the 11th hardest on Tour. in 2019, the course ranked T-7th as winner Corey Conners 2nd. In 2018 the course ranked T-6th in greens hit, with the winner Landry ranking 1st while 2017 champion Kevin Chappell ranking 2nd in this stat, 2016 winner Charley Hoffman was 10th in this stat, and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd.

Just like we have seen the last couple of weeks on Tour, you have to scramble well if you miss fairways. Last year TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd while Spieth was 4th. In 2019 TPC San Antonio ranked 43rd in scrambling out of 49 courses meaning that players tended to get it up and down more than any other tour events. Now for winner Conners, he was terrible in this stat, ranking 70th and only getting it up and down 30.77% of the time. In 2018 TPC San Antonio ranked 23rd in scrambling on Tour, meaning that the pros were able to get up and down when missing greens, but winner Andrew Landry was 2nd in scrambling, getting it up and down in 15 of the 19 greens he missed.

Another essential item in doing well is putting. Last year the course ranked 11th in making putts inside 10 feet, with an average of 87.11% of putts made. Winner Spieth showed off how good his putting can be as he was T-5th in this stat, making 66 of 71 putts inside ten feet. In 2019 the course ranked 19th in making putts inside 10 feet with an 87.82 average, while Conners lacked in this stat, ranking T-50th, making only 65 of 75 putts. In 2018 the course ranked 10th in making putts from ten feet and in with an 86.82 average. Again, looking at our winner Landry’s profile, he ranked T-10th in this stat, completing 66 of 72 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie average, and it’s hard to imagine, but the players only averaged making 3.30 birdies per round (rank T-16th) as Spieth made 24 birdies and was 1st. In 2019 3.68 birdies per round were made by the field as Corey Conners was first making 29 birdies for the week. In 2018 the course averaged 3.41 birdies per round. That ranked it 12th on Tour, while Landry won, making 21 birdies for the week, a 5.25 average.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a great barometer on how players’ games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2021 with 125 of the 144 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Link to the full stats of all 125 players at the Valero Texas Open

DraftKings tips

Of the 144 in the field, 109 have played at least once at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open since 2010:

  • Charley Hoffman is 73 under in 44 rounds, playing 11 years
  • Aaron Baddeley is 32 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
  • Corey Conners is 30 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Jordan Spieth is 29 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
  • Matt Kuchar is 29 under in 36 rounds, playing 9 years
  • Brandt Snedeker is 28 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Kevin Streelman is 26 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
  • Martin Laird is 25 under in 30 rounds, playing 8 years
  • Jimmy Walker is 22 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
  • Chris Kirk is 21 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
  • Si Woo Kim is 20 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Ryan Palmer is 19 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
  • Kyoung-Hoon Lee is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Rickie Fowler is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Matt Wallace is 14 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
  • Andrew Landry is 13 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Graeme McDowell is 13 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Lucas Glover is 13 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Rory McIlroy is 12 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
  • Abraham Ancer is 10 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Dylan Frittelli is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Kevin Chappell is 10 under in 29 rounds, playing 9 years
  • Sung Kang is 10 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

  • Corey Conners is 30 under, playing 3 years (-10.0)
  • K.H. Lee is 15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
  • Rickie Fowler is 15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
  • Brandt Snedeker is 28 under, playing 4 years (-7.0)
  • Charley Hoffman is 73 under, playing 11 years (-6.6)
  • Dylan Frittelli is 10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
  • Jordan Spieth is 29 under, playing 6 years (-4.8)
  • Kevin Streelman is 26 under, playing 6 years (-4.3)
  • Lucas Glover is 13 under, playing 3 years (-4.3)
  • Aaron Baddeley is 32 under, playing 8 years (-4.0)
  • Si Woo Kim is 20 under, playing 5 years (-4.0)
  • Andrew Landry is 13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
  • Matt Kuchar is 29 under, playing 9 years (-3.2)
  • Martin Laird is 25 under, playing 8 years (-3.1)
  • Chris Kirk is 21 under, playing 7 years (-3.0)
  • Trey Mullinax is 9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)
  • Richy Werenski is 8 under, playing 3 years (-2.7)
  • Graeme McDowell is 13 under, playing 5 years (-2.6)
  • Abraham Ancer is 10 under, playing 4 years (-2.5)
  • Denny McCarthy is 7 under, playing 3 years (-2.3)
  • Jimmy Walker is 22 under, playing 11 years (-2.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

 

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:
  • Rory McIlroy – $11,200
  • Hideki Matsuyama – $10,800
  • Jordan Spieth – $10,600
  • Abraham Ancer- $10,300
  • Bryce DeChambeau – $10,200
  • Corey Conners – $9,800
  • Si Woo Kim – $9,600
  • Maverick McNealy – $9,500
  • Chris Kirk – $9,400
  • Gary Woodland – $9,300
  • Keegan Bradley – $9,200
  • Tony Finau – $9,100
  • Jason Day – $9,000

With a weak field, that means DraftKings has to take guys that are very overpriced.  Perfect example is Hideki Matsuyama at $10,800 and Bryce DeChambeau at $10,200.  Picking Matsuyama or DeChambeau at that price is like paying to take a ride on the Titanic, not a great move.  To be fair both our coming off of injuries and trying to get ready for the Masters.  So happy picking but remember this week, the favorites are probably not worth the money

So let’s look at the top of the barrel and have to say that Rory McIlroy at $11,200 is very fair and knowing his luck he will win this week and be spent for the Masters.  Yes McIlroy is playing well, still he isn’t reliable and since this isn’t a big deal he will probably win.  Now as I said above Hideki Matsuyama at $10,800 is a no, sorry he has been plagued with back pain and I would say that not many folks will take him this week or next.  Jordan Spieth at $10,600 is also a no, his game and putting isn’t sharp let’s see if he can get some solid reps and be better for next week.  Abraham Ancer at $10,300 intrigues me, his record at TPC San Antonio is not great but not bad.  In four starts he has made four cuts, he has struggled for the last three months and I saw that it looked like he may of gotten better with his great wins at the Match Play over Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa.  Bryce DeChambeau at $10,200 is also a no, matter of fact he is a no next week and the week after and the week after.  He is not in a great frame of mind and you will see it when he plays.  Corey Conners at $9,800 is a big yes, he plays well on this course and has played well all year.  He has played good in his last three events and I can see him defending his title this week.  Si Woo Kim at $9,600 is a no even with a deceit record in this event.  He just hasn’t done anything magical, yes he has made cuts this year but can’t get into contention in the final round.  I like Maverick McNealy at $9,500.  Playing in this event for the first time, course is up his alley and I see a very good finish from him this week.  Chris Kirk at $9,400 is way overpriced, yes his record is good at TPC San Antonio with four top-13 finishes and has been solid all year.  Still the price is too high.  Gary Woodland at $9,300 is also overpriced, yes he was T-6th last year and did have a pair of 5th place finish on the Florida swing, but I just can’t get over his high cost.  Same with Keegan Bradley at $9,200 he just hasn’t done enough to justify the attention and his status on Draftkings.  Tony Finau at $9,100 is a major disappointment on the PGA Tour in 2022.  First his record in this event is not great other than a 3rd place finish at the Valero in 2017.  But his game has been in hiding most of the year so have to say a big no to Finau.  As for Jason Day at $9,000, he has never played the course and has struggled possibly due to the death of his mother.

Here is our feature which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Valero Texas Open on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Honda Classics starts:

  • Charley Hoffman made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
  • Matt Kuchar made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
  • Aaron Baddeley made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
  • Kevin Streelman made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
  • Branden Grace made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
  • Brandt Snedeker made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
  • Abraham Ancer made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,300.
  • Corey Conners made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
  • Anirban Lahiri made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
  • J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
  • Brendan Steele made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
  • Martin Laird made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
  • Jordan Spieth made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
  • Pat Perez made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
  • Sung Kang made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
  • Si Woo Kim made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
  • Nick Taylor made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
  • Keegan Bradley made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
  • Graeme McDowell made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
  • Brice Garnett made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
  • Matt Jones made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
  • John Huh made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
  • Tony Finau made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,100.
  • Andrew Putnam made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
  • Brendon Todd made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
  • Beau Hossler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
  • Gary Woodland made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.
  • Ben Martin made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat like Kevin Streelman at $8,700, he has a solid record in this event and been good on the PGA Tour in 2022.  He is a good buy, will make the cut and earn you a lot of Draftkings points.  Charley Hoffman is at $8,200 and there is good news, but also bad news.  The good, his record on this course is superb, in 15 starts has seven top-ten finishes including back to back runner-up finishes the last two years.  He has played great in this event, making 15 of 15 cuts so you think he will find the magic again.  But we don’t know the state of his game, in 11 starts in 2022 has no top-25 finishes and has missed his last two cuts.  Still have to think the course will bring the best out of him.  Patton Kizzire at $8,100 is another one to pick, was T-9th in his only start last year and of late has been very consistent.  Rasmus Hojgaard at $7,900 is a good buy, playing in this event for the first time he made it to this event thanks to his 6th place finish at Corales.  Has been very consistent in Europe, again is a good pick.  Another good buy is Matt Kuchar at $7,800.  His record at TPC San Antonio is spotless, no miss cuts and he has a lot of good finishes including T-12th last year and T-7th in 2019.  On the PGA Tour has been good and bad, think the course is good for him and expect a good finish.  You want to take a gamble, take Rickie Fowler at $7,700.  Yes we don’t know what the state of his game is, but I bet he didn’t enjoy watching the Players and Match Play from home because he couldn’t qualify.  Sometimes getting mad helps find your game again, think that will be the case.  Brendan Steele at $7,600 is also a good buy, very consistent in this event, he will make the cut and get you points.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Lucas Glover at $7,400 is good, he is solid and will help you at a low price.  Chad Ramey at $7,300 is also worth it, yes has never played in this event but was good last week at the Corales.  Richard Bland at $7,200 is good, he is on a mission to get into the Masters so he may be very good this week.  Matthew NeSmith at $7,100 is good, was T-3rd in his last start at Valspar and was T-34th at Valero.  Matt Wallace at $6,400 has been on a terrible ride missing his last five cuts, but was 3rd last year in this event and will be looking to find that magic and play good.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

The key stat for the winner:
  • For the regulars of past Valero Texas Open’s, 12 years ago was the start of the new era here.  For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has not finished better than T30th in eight tries while Johnson missed the cut in 2010 and last year.   In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2021 hitting greens seemed to be the key for many in the top-ten. So a combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lot’s of greens and putt well.  In looking at the ten winners at TPC San Antonio, all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011 ranked T40th in greens hit, in 2017 Kevin Chappell ranked T-36th in putts in 2019 Corey Conners ranked T-30th in putts and last year Jordan Spieth was T-57th in greens hit).
Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:
  • Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it made sense with wins from inexperience winners like Brendan Steele, Martin Laird and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch.  But that pace has continued with Jordan Spieth winning last year, Corey Conners winning in 2019, Andrew Landry in 2018, Kevin Chappell won in 2017, Charley Hoffman won in 2016 and Jimmy Walker won in 2015, Adam Scott won in 2010 and Ben Curtis in 2012 so the players should know the course by now but look for a non-marquee guy to win.
  • Since TPC San Antonio joined the PGA Tour in 2010, it has never been out of the top-20 of toughest courses on tour Until 2019 when it ranked 28th because of the perfect weather and lack of win.   Last year it was a brute again, in 2021 it the scoring average was 72.48.
  • One trend that is pretty unique at the Texas Open is the fact that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast.  Since 1988 the 3rd round leader has won 23 of the 33 tournaments so if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the championship.  Since moving to TPC San Antonio in 2010 seven of the 11 winners have led after the third round, Last year Jordan Spieth went into the final round tied for the lead wiath Matt Glover.  In 2019 Corey Conners was 2nd going into the final round and won.  In 2018 Andrew Landry and in 2017 Kevin Chappell both led going into the final round.
  • Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players.  Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio, of those that have finished in the top-3 only nine have been in the top-ten in driving distance.  So this is a course that power won’t dictate a win.
  • 16 previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs, the last coming in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll.  So there hasn’t been any playoffs yet at TPC San Antonio.
  • In looking at the long-range weather forecast.  It’s expected to be good with just cloudy conditions, but winds will blow between 8 and 14 mph.

Who to watch for at the Valero Texas Open

Best Bets:

Rory McIlroy

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
2

My mistake he could win this week. He has played once in this event and was 2nd in 2013, so the course is good for him. He is playing well and will work hard to peak for the Masters, but you never know he could peak a week too soon.

Corey Conners

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T14 Win T26

A past champion on this course, he could easily do the same since he is playing well and the course suits him.

Abraham Ancer

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T23 T42 T58 T42

Hasn’t played badly on this course, liked how he played at the Match Play.

Best of the rest:

Jordan Spieth

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
Win T30 2 10 CUT T41

Defending champion is not playing well, but he will be getting ready for the Masters and he could play better this week. Don’t expect him to win again, but think he wants to play well and finish in the top-15.

Kevin Streelman

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
6 T8 T53 T37 T13 T15

He has a solid record in this event and been good on the PGA Tour in 2022.

Matt Kuchar

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T12 T7 T51 T40 T42 T15 T4 T22 T13

His record at TPC San Antonio is spotless, with no miss-cuts and he has a lot of good finishes including T-12th last year and T-7th in 2019. On the PGA Tour has been good and bad, think the course is good for him and expect a good finish.

Brendan Steele

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
77 T42 T30 T62 T13 T8 CUT T46 T4 Win

Very consistent in this event had a rough stretch on the west coast swing of five missed cuts but think he is better and will do great this week.

Solid contenders

Charley Hoffman

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
2 2 T64 T40 Win T11 T11 T3 T13 T2 T13

There is good news, but also bad news. The good, his record on this course is superb, in 15 starts has seven top-ten finishes including back to back runner-up finishes the last two years. He has played great in this event, making 15 of 15 cuts so I think he will find the magic again.

Maverick McNealy

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
First time playing in this event

Playing in this event for the first time, the course is up his alley and I see a very good finish from him this week.

Chris Kirk

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T6 CUT T8 CUT T13 T8 T48

Yes his record is good at TPC San Antonio with four top-13 finishes and has been solid all year.

Patton Kizzire

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T9

Was T-9th in his only start last year and of late has been very consistent.

Long shots that could come through:

Rickie Fowler

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T17 T17

Yes we don’t know what the state of his game is, but I bet he didn’t enjoy watching the Players and Match Play from home because he couldn’t qualify. Sometimes getting mad helps find your game, think that will be the case and he will have a great week.

Richard Bland

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
First time playing in this event

Guy has a mission to play in the Masters, he came close at the Match Play but missed out. Needs a win this week to achieve his goal, think he will play well and be in contention.

Rasmus Hojgaard

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
First time playing in this event

Playing in this event for the first time he made it to this event thanks to his 6th place finish at Corales. Has been very consistent in Europe, again is a good pick.

Worst Bets:

Hideki Matsuyama

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
T30

Sorry but you can’t play with a sore back. Hopefully, he is better, but could be a while to get back to normal don’t think this week and next will be fun for him.

Bryce DeChambeau

2022 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10
First time playing in this event

Not in a good place right now, think just making the cut will be a major accomplishment for him.

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