BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Guess what the “Buzz” is about at Augusta?  Yes, Tiger Woods.  In his press conference, he was in good form and gave the media a lot of information.  But the biggest item was that he was ready to go.  He said that he would play nine holes on Wednesday and if he feels find will tee it up at 10:34 on Thursday.  It’s amazing that Woods hasn’t played in a tournament in 508 days, the longest he has ever gone.

Tiger showed up at Augusta last Tuesday with Justin Thomas and Tiger’s son Charlie played.  Tiger came back on Sunday and played with Fred Couple and Thomas and both marveled how well Tiger played.  At that time Tiger sent out on social media that it would be a “game-time decision.”

In his news conference, he made it sound more like he was going to play, he explained how bad the injury was and how he had made a lot of progress.  Tiger also told the media that it’s not about the swing or how he plays, but if his legs could maintain the strain of the hills of Augusta.

Tiger emphasized how hard he has worked getting to this point and said how happy he was that the legs weren’t showing any signs of pain the next day.

Still, for betters across the world, the major question on every bodies mind is if he will play well.  When asked the question if he thought he could win he answered it this way.

“I don’t show up to an event unless I think I can win it,”” Woods said. “So that’s the attitude I’ve had. There will be a day when it won’t happen, and I’ll know when that is.”

So for all betters is this a good time to bet with Tiger?  Probably not, yes Tiger is the best player in the last 50 years, but he is still human.  He has been through a lot but the big problem is the 508 days.  Sure he played with his son Charlie at the PNC in December, but that is a different beast.  That was all about father and son having a great time.  In that event Tiger rode in a cart, but that won’t happen this week.  Even Tiger made mentioned of playing 72 holes and how that would be very challenging for him.  In a way, he sounded human-like when he admitted that playing 72 holes would be a great accomplishment.

So the best advice I have is to not bet on Tiger and enjoy watching him on TV.  If he plays well which we all want to see you can curse yourself for listening to me, but at least enjoy his great play.

The last time the Masters was played was a year ago, we were getting back on our feet because of COVID-19.  The tournament had some fans but frankly only a small amount.  This year is back to normal, hey I am back at Augusta after a two-year hiatus due to restrictions.

Have to say that in the one short walk I took on the course before the rains came I was able to see the eruption of blooming flora as the Azaleas are in full bloom.  The rich colors of Augusta should be back and nice to see.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

As for those that are favorites and those that have fallen out of that circle, I think that for months we have been talking a lot about Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth being big favorites, but their games have not shown that they could win this week.

Also, fear that Rory McIlroy didn’t look great last week in Texas, and after missing the cut last year at Augusta, there is concern about his game. Still, I am a firm believer in McIlroy and feel he will one day complete his slam with a win at the Masters, hey, it could even come this week.

One sharp person will be Justin Thomas, but he still is a bit like Jon Rahm, in which he has problems closing the deal, and I am concerned that if he gets into the lead, he won’t know what to do.

I am concerned over a couple of others like Collin Morikawa, his Augusta National record is not excellent, and his game hasn’t been sharp lately. Same with Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. One person I fear may not be able to play is Hideki Matsuyama, who has been plagued with neck and back pain.  On Tuesday in his Masters’ press conference, he feels optimistic of being 100% on Thursday.  Says that he has gotten a lot of treatment but still I wouldn’t put a penny on him this week. We also wonder about the state of Bryson DeChambeau’s game.  On Monday he didn’t sound as optimistic saying that he has a broken hand and playing against doctors’ orders.  Have to say that makes the decision for him very easy.

Now those that should contend, lots of guys come into this week with a great work resume in the last couple of months. On top of the list is Scottie Scheffler, who won three times in a span of 42 days. We have seen Scheffler in a different light, one in which his game is not only decisive but one that doesn’t have many weaknesses. His game is good in every category, and he doesn’t show any liability. He is the favorite.

Another popular bet will be Cameron Smith, who has knocked on the doors at the majors. At Augusta, he was T-2nd in 2020 and T-10th last year. He showed the Players his game was ready for primetime, and he has all the tools to win the Masters.

Another person I am keen on this week is Dustin Johnson. We talked about Scottie Scheffler’s fine resume of work of late, it’s the complete opposite with Johnson. Since winning the Masters 19 months ago, Johnson has only won once at last year’s Saudi International. The disappointing aspect of Johnson’s game as we all thought the Masters win would open the floodgates to other victories, but the opposite happened. In the 14 months since winning in Saudi Arabia, Johnson has only contended a handful of times and only finished in the top five once. That came a few weeks back at the WGC-Dell Match Play. In that, he stumbled on Sunday, losing but his semi-final and consolation matches. What gives me the conviction that Johnson will be awesome this week? He is hitting more greens and putting better. So look for Johnson to have a good week. Another in that realm is Brooks Koepka, who could be the best major player since Tiger Woods. Koepka has some valid reasons for his poor play since winning the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, injuries. He has had a slew of different problems and seems to be 100% healthy again for the first time in years. Despite that, he still has played a Jekyll and Hyde type of game, like missing the cut at the Farmers, finishing T-3rd at Phoenix two weeks later, and then missing the cut the following week at Genesis.

The most important thing to remember is that he is in that major mode in his head. I have always felt that Koepka’s game is “Masters ready” he showed that in 2019 when he was runner-up by a shot with Tiger Woods winning. Not many people will bother with him this week, and that is when he is at his best and always seems to win when you least expect it. So don’t forget about Brooks.

Now a couple of surprises for this year, I like Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Will Zalatoris.

They have done well at Augusta National, and all have done well in the last couple of months. Any one of these three could win this week if they get hot. So don’t forget about these three players

What about the Masters’ rookies? Could Fuzzy’s record be in danger?  Of the field of 91, there are just 20 Masters rookies.  Of those 20 I only see one with the possibility of winning Sam Burns  Still it’s going to be a long week for those 20 Masters rookies.

So is there anyone else?  Of course, how about past Masters winners Adam Scott and Patrick Reed? These guys can get hot and be in contention.  But I would not place a dime on any of them.  Now of those rookie players I can only see one player breaking out, that being Sam Burns.

So buckle up and get ready for a wild week, the Masters will be exciting again.

Things you need to know about the Masters

This week will be the 86th edition of the Masters. It has been played every year, except between 1943 and 1945, when the war suspended the championship.  It has been played at Augusta National every year, the only major played on the same course each year.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played on Augusta National.  But with the hot summers in June, Jones approached the USGA with the idea of playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters’ Tournament, but Jones objected, thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted, and that title was used for five years until 1939 when Jones relented, and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, S.C.
• 7,510 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that he would be able to build a championship golf course near his Atlanta home one day.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s, he met New York banker Clifford Roberts who helped Jones with his vision. After looking at several places, they both decided on Augusta, Ga., as the site provided the best weather in the winter months.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that, according to Jones, plans would utilize the natural shape and slope of the property to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a venue that relied on severe rough as a hazard and hoped that he could find a piece of property that would have a stream running through so that he could build several holes around it for water hazards.  He also wanted to create a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, one that would use mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts in their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres that were once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south, and they called it Fruitland Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883, the business flourished. A great variety of flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today they serve as the club’s entrances were on the property.  But Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910, the business stop operation, and the heirs looked for a buyer.  That buyer came around in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for an ideal golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000, and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club, and Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also agreed in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after failing in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans, and the construction started in July of 1931. Unfortunately, after the construction work was completed, Mackenzie died before Augusta National was entirely covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with a limited amount of member play. A formal opening took place in January of 1933.

Since the course opened, it has been changed several times in the 87 years.  In 1934 the tournament nines were different and were changed for the 1935 event.  Also, the grasses have changed over the years between bent and bermudagrass, Today Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with ryegrass.  The greens are bentgrass which gives them tremendous speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the PGA Tour average. Water comes into play on five holes on the backside, and there are only 43 bunkers.

For the 2019 Masters, the 5th hole was lengthened.  The land purchase that they made many years ago allowed Augusta National to shut down Berkman’s Road, which the old 5th tee was up against.  So they were able to move the tee back 30 yards and now make the 5th hole an absolute monster.

When the players arrive this week they will notice a couple of changes to three of the holes.  The par 4, 11th will have a new tee that adds 15 yards to the hole.  The tee is also the golfer’s left of the old tee.  The fairway has been recontoured and several trees removed on the right side.  This change is not to make the hole harder but should make the fairway more obtainable off the tee.

The second change is to the par 5, 15th hole.  20 yards have been added to the hole and the fairway was also recontoured.  20 yards shouldn’t mean much for the players, for the long hitters they will have to use a longer iron to get home in two, but for the player that is average length off the tee, it may give them more of a decision if they want to hit the green in two.

The last change comes on par 4, 18th hole.  For the players this is a bit strange, 13 yards have been added to the back of the tee but they are saying it doesn’t mean a change in length to the hole.  Officials have made the change due to more players driving it past the big bunker on the left side of the fairway.  But despite the 13 added yards, because of the dogleg right nature of the hole, it really won’t add 13 yards to the hole.

With the changes, it adds 35 yards to the scorecard bringing the total yardage up to 7,510.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Augusta National.

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last April’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
Last year’s Masters was played at its regular time in April, while the 2020 Masters was played five months earlier in November. Now in the earlier, 2020 Masters, the course played entirely different in November and its 71.75 made it the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season, so far 30 courses have been played). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. When it returned to its original date in April the scoring average was 73.06 and it was the 7th hardest course on tour for 2021.
In looking at the weather for Augusta
I can see another round of weather playing a part in the championship. Each day will be ok without rain but the prospect of Augusta National being played in 20 to 25 mph winds is going to make tough scoring conditions. If the club gets the course playing fast, as it is this time of year the scoring will be high as par will be a good score,

Now one thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long hitters. That is part true, hitting it long does have its an advantage,, especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this in 2020 when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in regulation, the best in the field. Last year went back to the norm as Hideki Matsuyama hit an average of 288.8 yards and ranked 47th of those that made the cut. Despite Matsuyama hitting it much shorter he still played the Par 5s in 11 under, the same as Johnson.
Now showing players that aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and in 2017 both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short. The perfect example was in 2019 Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also in 2016 and in 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance while in 2015 Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top-ten for the week, in April of last year five in the top-12 were in the top-ten in driving distance, in 2019 only 3, while in 2018 only 4, while in 2017 only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015 only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think.

One thing in looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t utilize stroke gain stats which we have been using more of so we have to go back to the old fashion stats. So in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hits lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So these are the four stats we pick for this week’s key course stats.

In looking at Augusta National last year, the course ranked 12th in greens in regulation (60.93). This has been a very consistent number for the last decade. As for importance, winners Tiger Woods in 2019 and Dustin Johnson in 2020 ranked 1st, two of 8 players to lead that category while winning the Masters (since 1997). But the previous year it was totally different as Patrick Reed ranked 21st which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank in the previous 23 Masters champions going back to 1997. If you look at those winners, 17 of the 25 are in the top five like 2017 champion Sergia Garcia who ranked T-2nd. So if only 5 of the 25 are outside the top ten, you have to say that hitting greens is very important in winning the Masters. Last year Hideki Matsuyama Was T-7th in greens in regulation hitting 50 of the 72, ten fewer greens than Johnson hit in 2020.

Our next category is scrambling and last year the course ranked 9th while Hideki Matsuyama was 2nd. We do know that in November Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling. Tiger was on the other end of the spectrum in 2019 ranking T-50th. In 2018 Augusta was 5th on tour while Reed was T-16th.
In three-putt avoidance Augusta, the course was 3rd while Hideki Matsuyama was T-33rd (He had four, three putts). In 2020 Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week) and in 2019 the course was the 6th hardest on tour while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts). In 2018 it played 5th hardest on Tour while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and ranked T-13th.
Our last category is par 5, now for the field the Par 5 average last year ranked 4th with a 4.311 average. As for Matsuyama, he ranked T-2nd at 4.31 or 11 under for the week. In 2020 the course ranked 34th at 4.59 while Johnson played the par 5s in 11 under. In 2019 the course average was 4.58 and was T-33rd on tour. In 2019, Tiger was 8 under for the week which ranked T-27th. In 2018, Augusta was 4.70 and it was T-17th on tour. Reed was 13 under for the week which is the key to how he won. You look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by four different players and there were only five different players at 14 under so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone, so playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory. Since 1997 every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 25 years, they average 8 under so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So let’s take a more careful look at how the last seven champions became victorious. Last year Hideki Matsuyama was T-7th in greens hit, but 2nd in scrambling and had an average putting week, which is good for him. Matsuyama played the par 5s in 11 under which was 4th best.
In 2020 Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong, it was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it being played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course didn’t have the same bite it normally has. In November 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72 hole score, Dustin Johnson became the first player in history to break the 270 mark as he shot 20 under, 268. Of course records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is for the first time in Masters history someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even tougher to swallow is that the record wasn’t accomplished by the winner, runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. In total, the Masters’ statistician was busy as 40 Masters records were broken and 14 were tied. So we can see that hopefully the move back to April was well welcomed for those in charge of course setup.
Back to our roll call of recent winnings, in 2019 Tiger did it with his ironwork, he hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies which was 2nd best.
In 2018, Reed did it with his putter, he not only had the least amount of putts but also was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
In 2017 Sergio Garcia won it with his ball-striking, he was 2nd in fairways hit and T-2nd in greens hit. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
In 2016 Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation, he was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth. He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other important item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind, making lots of birdies, in 2015 Spieth led that stat making 28 birdies for the week while Willett was T-16th making just 13 for the week.

Again if a person can hit a lot of greens and scramble well on the ones he misses and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10-foot range he is a can’t miss to not only contend, but possibly win.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Three putt avoidance: Augusta has the toughest greens in the world to putt on. They average 6,486 square feet so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy and you can be faced with a lot of ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away it’s really hard to get up and down in two putts and is important.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters due have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But to win it’s important to do well on the Par 5s.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2022 with 66 of the 91 players having stats. One other thing, the Masters is not part of the PGA Tours shotlink program so you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

#	Name	*Greens in Regulation	*Scrambling	*Three putt avoidance	*Par 5 scoring	Total Rank All Categories	DraftKings Salary
1	Justin Thomas (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	6	6	28	3	43	10300
2	Patrick Cantlay (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	62	12	4	1	79	9500
3	Cameron Smith (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	5	67	10	2	84	9900
4	Sam Burns (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	14	55	14	17	100	8600
5	Xander Schauffele (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	35	36	1	29	101	9600
6	Billy Horschel (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	17	56	36	10	119	7400
7	Talor Gooch (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	21	87	3	8	119	8700
8	Marc Leishman (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	42	44	14	21	121	7300
9	Sungjae Im (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	16	3	96	14	129	8400
10	Seamus Power (Plyr/Tnmt/YTD)	4	25	100	6	135	7200

Here is a link to the other 56 players’ stats

DraftKings tips

Of the 91 in the field, 69 have played at least once at Augusta National in the Masters.

*Here are the players with the most under par totals at the Masters since 2010:

• Jordan Spieth is 50 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
• Justin Rose is 40 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Tiger Woods is 39 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jon Rahm is 34 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Dustin Johnson is 31 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Lee Westwood is 25 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Rory McIlroy is 23 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Tony Finau is 22 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 21 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Xander Schauffele is 18 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Brooks Koepka is 13 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Justin Thomas is 12 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Adam Scott is 11 under in 48 rounds, playing 12 years
• Cameron Smith is 10 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Will Zalatoris is 9 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Corey Conners is 8 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Abraham Ancer is 7 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 7 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Cameron Champ is 5 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Bubba Watson is 4 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Patrick Reed is 3 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Viktor Hovland is 3 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Robert MacIntyre is 2 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Sungjae Im is 2 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Collin Morikawa is 1 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Jon Rahm is 34 under, playing 5 years (-6.8)
• Jordan Spieth is 50 under, playing 8 years (-6.3)
• Tony Finau is 22 under, playing 4 years (-5.5)
• Tiger Woods is 39 under, playing 8 years (-4.9)
• Xander Schauffele is 18 under, playing 4 years (-4.5)
• Justin Rose is 40 under, playing 11 years (-3.6)
• Abraham Ancer is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Scottie Scheffler is 7 under, playing 2 years (-3.5)
• Dustin Johnson is 31 under, playing 10 years (-3.1)
• Lee Westwood is 25 under, playing 10 years (-2.5)
• Cameron Champ is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Brooks Koepka is 13 under, playing 6 years (-2.2)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 21 under, playing 10 years (-2.1)
• Justin Thomas is 12 under, playing 6 years (-2.0)
• Cameron Smith is 10 under, playing 5 years (-2.0)
• Corey Conners is 8 under, playing 4 years (-2.0)
• Rory McIlroy is 23 under, playing 12 years (-1.9)
• Viktor Hovland is 3 under, playing 2 years (-1.5)
• Sungjae Im is 2 under, playing 2 years (-1.0)
• Adam Scott is 11 under, playing 12 years (-0.9)
• Collin Morikawa is 1 under, playing 2 years (-0.5)
• Bubba Watson is 4 under, playing 11 years (-0.4)
• Patrick Reed is 3 under, playing 8 years (-0.4)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

DraftKings tips

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,000
• Jon Rahm – $10,800
• Dustin Johnson – $10,500
• Justin Thomas – $10,300
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Viktor Hovland – $10,100
• Rory McIlroy – $10,000
• Cameron Smith – $9,900
• Jordan Spieth – $9,800
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,500
• Brooks Koepka – $9,400
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,300
• Will Zalatoris – $9,200
• Bryson DeChambeau – $9,100
• Daniel Berger – $9,000

Have to say that the master could be one of the hardest events to pick.  If you look at the 16 names above, 14 of them are great choices with half of them being slam dunks to finish in the top five.  So you have to choose well, in those below $8,400 and once you get in the below $7,500 category it’s very, very hard to pick.

I look at these prices, and my first thought is that they are more than fair.  The last thing you hate to see is a couple of guys in the $11,000 and a bunch in the $10,000 range that are overpriced, but that isn’t the case.  Maybe it is because the field is smaller, of course, there has to be a scale based on the number of players on the field.  So with the Master’s field at just 91, maybe this is the reason.

Another thing, is one of the differences in the Masters.  Only 30 guys have a real chance of doing well, so you are limited in picks, so maybe that is why the prices are lower.  No matter we have to pick six great choices.  Before we start, the cost of the million dollars in first place is up to $15 from $10, so you don’t have the option of picking more teams unless you want to pay for the privilege.  One thing that is important, with only 91 players in the field and the top-50 and ties making the cut you better pick six guys that are around for four rounds.  This is the most important thing you have to do, you could pick five superstars but that one crappy pick that missed the cut could cost you a lot of money.

Scottie Scheffler makes a lot of sense at $11,000. He has won three times in the last couple of months.  He has some ok results, nothing fancy but was T-18th last year and T-19th in 2020.  Yes, he is a lot of money but worth the cost.  As for Jon Rahm at $10,800 it’s best not to take him.  He was my big choice back at the start of the year, but his game has been weak, mostly due to poor putting.  Best to avoid him this week.  I like Dustin Johnson at $10,500.  He was terrible last year and after a slow start think he is ready to rock and roll this week.  The same with Justin Thomas at $10,300, he has an above-average record at the Masters and he has been ok on the PGA Tour.  Only knock on him, just doesn’t win enough for the talent that he is.  Collin Morikawa at $10,200 is a very tough choice.  First, his Masters’ record is not great but he only has played in the tournament twice.  I know that he has been runner-up twice in 2020 season but since his T-2nd at the Genesis, his game has been sloppy and not that great.  I would pass on him.  Viktor Hovland at $10,100 is in the same boat as Morikawa.  Hovland makes cuts but has not been in contention going into the final day at the Masters.  But he has been great on the PGA Tour and with three wins in a span of three months is hard not to take.  Still, be careful in using him.  A player to watch is  Rory McIlroy at $10,000.  You can tell that McIlroy wants to win this week, but he has been on this train for a number of years and just has to go out and get it done.  I like Cameron Smith at $9,900 a lot, only worry is his Players win a couple of weeks back, will that tire him out.  Don’t think so because he has been in this position before, I like him a lot. Jordan Spieth at $9,800 is misleading because you look at his Masters’ record and it’s terrific.  But just like Jon Rahm, both players’ years have been a struggle.  So Jordan is a no from me.  Both Patrick Cantlay at $9,500 and Xander Schauffele at $9,500 are so-so picks so it’s best to sit them out.  A big yes on Brooks Koepka at $9,400, he is healthy and ready to go he is a great pick at that price.  A big no on Hideki Matsuyama at $9,300 and Bryson DeChambeau at $9,100.  They have been injured and frankly, DraftKings shouldn’t have ranked them so high.  Will Zalatoris at $9,200 and Daniel Berger at $9,000 are ok picks.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Masters on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Masters starts:

Adam Scott made 12 cuts in 12 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8300.

Jordan Spieth made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9800.

Tiger Woods made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8500.

Justin Thomas made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10300.

Jon Rahm made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,800.

Bryson DeChambeau made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9100.

Cameron Smith made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9900.

Xander Schauffele made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9600.

Tony Finau made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8100.

Justin Rose made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.

Bubba Watson made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7300.

Lee Westwood made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6900.

Hideki Matsuyama made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 9300.

Rory McIlroy made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 10000.

Brooks Koepka made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 9400.

Dustin Johnson made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10500.

Russell Henley made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7800.

Tommy Fleetwood made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7700.

Si Woo Kim made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7100.

Louis Oosthuizen made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8900.

Patrick Reed made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7400.

Corey Conners made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7600.

Daniel Berger made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9000.

Billy Horschel made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 7400.

Webb Simpson made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7500.

Paul Casey made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7600.

Kevin Na made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6800.

Francesco Molinari made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6900.

(Those that I like are in bold) 

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, everyone would like to think that Tiger Woods can win.  But we have to remember he hasn’t played in a tournament in over 500 days.  Honestly, Tiger is priced at $8,500 which is a lot of money for a guy that hasn’t played in a while.  Sorry to say it’s best to pass on him.  My first choice in this price category is Adam Scott at $8,300.  I don’t think he is going to win, but he is steady and a shoo-in to make the cut.  He did play well at the Match Play, I think that Scott will give you a lot of points on the way to a top-20 finish.  Joaquin Niemann at $8,200 is also a good choice to make the cut and get you a lot of points.  Talk about overvalued, Tyrrell Hatton at $8,000 fits the bill.  He has been on a roll since the Hero World Challenge and thinks it will continue.  Russell Henley at $7,800 is a very savvy pick.  The last time he played in the Masters was in 2018 and he finished T-15th.  Before that was T-11th in 2017 so like that.  For 2022 he hasn’t missed a cut in 12 starts so he will pick up a lot of points.  Can’t believe that Matt Fitzpatrick is priced at $7,700.  A great bargain he has made his last six Masters cut with a best finish of T-7th in 2016.  Other than missing the cut at the Players he has played great with four top-tens, yes a great pick.  Paul Casey at $7,600 is good, has played very well at Augusta with five top-tens in 15 starts.  Here is the bargain of the week, Corey Conners at $7,600.  Was T-8th last year at the Masters and T-10th in 2020 he has played ok this year.  Justin Rose at $7,500 is always a good buy because of his track record at the Masters.  Has played well, mostly in the early rounds.  He should make the cut and gain you a lot of points at a cheap price.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

The big problem of taking those high price guys like Dustin, Scottie, and Justin there aren’t many low price guys to pick.  Billy Horschel at $7,400 he has never been a world-beater at Augusta but should make the cut.Si Woo Kim at $7,100 is a steal, playing well right now and has an ok record at Augusta.  Kevin Kisner at $6,800 is also a steal, the only problem he has missed his last Masters’ cuts but feel he is in the groove right now and will be good.  The steal of the week is Takumi Kanaya, we talked about him before, and at $6,000 worth the price.  I think he will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Masters:

The key stat for the winner:

• There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First, its precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.
• The precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens you have to position shots to the green in an area that you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the champions of the Masters, a poor putter usually doesn’t win.  Being able to avoid three putts is essential.
• Now, Zach Johnson had six three-putts in 2007 and Bubba Watson in 2012 with four which put a dent in our theory about three-putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we will have a new trend. I will still bet that the winner this year has the least number of three-putts of anyone else in the field.  In 2020 Dustin Johnson only had one three-putt.  In 2019 Tiger Woods had two in his win.  Last year Matsuyama had four.
• To show you how theories don’t work continually, look at the argument that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Phil, and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Zach Johnson, Mark O’Meara and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  Gosh look at Jordan Spieth in 2015, he ranked 52nd in driving distance at Augusta in his winning year.  No matter what, length is significant, just look at Tiger Woods’ victory in 1997. Being able to reach par-5s with wedges is a considerable advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t sometimes work at the Masters. Look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He lay up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  With dry, firm conditions this year brings in shorter hitters and gives them a chance.
• Stats are great, but in reality, they don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993 the only real favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods who won it in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 & 2019 and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  How many folks placed a bet on 2019 winner Tiger Woods, or the year before with Patrick Reed or 2016 champion Danny Willett? I would say not many people. Still, players like Sergio Garcia in 2017, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Bubba Watson in 2014, and Adam Scott winning in 2013 weren’t a big surprise. But nobody would have thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012, it was a big surprise for Charl Schwartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning it in 2009, Trevor Immelman winning in 2008 and Zach Johnson winning it in 2007.  Still, in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir who won in 2003, and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even more prominent surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer, and Ben Crenshaw, who came from out of the blue to win.  Still, one thing is certain; you need to have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner from the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be broken and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us this week, but it’s doubtful.  So let’s see who could possibly be a “surprise winner” this year.  My first choice is Scottie Scheffler who has never won on the PGA Tour.
• I can say this, look at the top 30 or 40 players off the world rankings.  We hear it all the time how the best players seem to win majors.  If you go off the world rankings, Ben Curtis was 396 when he won the British Open in 2003, and Shaun Micheel was 169 when he won the 2003 PGA Championship.  At the Masters you won’t find that kind of a winner, since 1988 there have been only two Masters champions not in the top-50, #56 Zach Johnson in 2007 and #69 Angel Cabrera in 2009.  In 2020 Dustin Johnson was #1 and in 2019 Tiger Woods was 12th going into the Masters, in 2018 Patrick Reed was 24th in the rankings, in 2017 Sergio Garcia was 11th, in 2016 Danny Willett was ranked 12th going into the Masters while Jordan Spieth in 2015 was 4th going into the Masters.  In the 35 years of the world rankings, the average Masters champion ranked 14th.  We’ve seen five #1s win and overall 19 of the 33 winners were in the top ten the week before their victory. Last year Matsuyama was 25th the week before his Masters’ win. So you can expect someone who is high up the world rankings to win this week.
• Last, experience and wisdom are important, that’s why Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start is Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979.  As I said earlier, there are 6 first-timers this year, and it’s a stretch seeing one of them winning.  Experience is always important at the Masters so look for a winner to be someone with a lot of experience.