BlogRBC Heritage Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So what did you all think of the Masters?

Have to say it’s nice when you try to pick a winner and get it right. I have to think that after Scottie Scheffler’s last month of play, many people felt the same way I did. We are seeing some significant golf right now with Scheffler. When he joined the PGA Tour last year that he was good, we didn’t realize how good he was. We had heard stories about how he dominated junior golf in Texas for years. As an amateur, he won the USGA Junior Amateur in 2013 and a month later made it to the quarterfinals of the U.S. Amateur that just happened to be played at The Country Club, the same site the U.S. Open is going to be this year. At 17 years old, he played in his first PGA Tour event and finished T-22nd at the HP Byron Nelson.

Scheffler got to the PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry Tour, where he won twice in 2019. He dominated that year, playing 20 events and finishing in the top-ten, 10 times. He has not been a slouched since joining the PGA Tour in 2020. He played in 23 events in his first year and finished in the top-ten, seven times, including two top-ten finishes. In 2021 he played in 29 events and was in the top-ten eight times, including a 2nd and third. He was knocking on a lot of doors and didn’t have the right key.

In 2022 he was 4th at Mayakoba and T-2nd at Houston, where he was the leader going into the final round. He shot 69 on Sunday in Houston, but Jason Kokrak shot 65 to win. He came close at the Hero World Challenge and finished 2nd, just a shot back of winner Viktor Hovland.

Scheffler found that magical key that opened up the door to his first victory at the WM Phoenix Open. He shot 62 on Saturday to get him into contention, and then on Sunday, played his last six holes in four-under to tie with Patrick Cantlay. Scheffler made birdie on the third extra hole to win in his 71st start.

That win came 57 days before he won the Masters, in which he won four times, and in just 42 days after Phoenix, he took over the top spot in the Official World Rankings. After his Masters’ victory, Scheffler is guaranteed to hold the number one spot for the rest of the year.

The most important aspect that we have to talk about is how good Scheffler really is. I hate how many writers use the same cliché boring saying that when someone wins a major, they are just great players of our time. You also see writers on PGA Tour wins say the same thing, how great the player is going to be, but in many cases, the player never wins again. But in Scheffler’s case, I feel he is in the infancy of some great golf in the future. We have seen a lot of writers with that same cliché writing about how golf is looking for the next Tiger Woods. Sorry but Tiger is a once-in-a-generation golfer. In the annuals of golf, we have seen maybe a handful of players like Bobby Jones, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods. Gosh, I wouldn’t even claim Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson, or Greg Norman on that list. The same with Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy. They are great players but nothing close to being a generational type of player.

Since Woods I have only seen one of these Generational players, and that I thought would be Jordan Spieth. He was great in his back-to-back major wins in 2015 and looked great, but flaws in his game and the mental aspect of his game make us realize that Spieth will never achieve “Generational Player.”  But in watching Scheffler, he has all the tools to be the next great in golf. Why do I say this?

Because Scheffler is excellent in every aspect of his game, he has no weakness. You look at Spieth, he was a great putter but not that great off the tee. You look at Dustin Johnson or a Rory McIlroy, they are great off the tee but have other frailties. One thing that Scheffler has is a tremendous mental aspect, and he has great support around him. On Sunday morning, he had hours to burn before his 2:40 tee time, and the gremlins started to play havoc in his mind. He got in his mind the fixation that he would shoot 82. Yes, the biggest problem of playing the final round is not the round itself, but the only morning and afternoon in which your mind plays tricks on you. But like we have said, great golfers have an extensive support system around them, and Scheffler’s wife Meredith changed his mental aspect and gave him confidence in what he was doing. Scheffler also talked about the gremlins in his stomach on Saturday and Sunday morning, but he could handle this, and the stomach pangs went away when he started playing. These are all aspects that players like Jones, Nicklaus, and Woods would be able to handle.

2022 is a banner year for Scheffler. The PGA Tour season is a little more than halfway finished. Scheffler has already won $10.1 million, and if he continues at the same pace could win $20 million. Last year Jon Rahm was the leading money winner with $7.7 million won for the whole season. So if Scheffler wanted to spend the next five months on some private beach with his wife, he would probably be the leading money winner and get player of the Year honors. We haven’t seen anything this great, four wins after the Masters since Arnold Palmer won four times before the 1961 Masters. Yes, Tiger never did it, Jack never did it, and nobody else has ever left the Masters with four PGA Tour wins going back to Arnold in 1961. Also, Scheffler is still 25 and, for the year, has four wins. Looking at the career of Dustin Johnson, he won four PGA Tour events in a season once in 2017. Rory McIlroy did it once in 2012, Spieth won five times in 2015, and Mickelson won four events three times in a year.

So the point of all this is to think that Scheffler will have a lot of great golf left in him. As of right now, he is playing with Ryan Palmer at the Zurich next week, along with the AT&T Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship. Could Scheffler run the tables in those? The odds are against it, but I think that Scheffler will find a way to get into a winning position a lot in the future. That means the odds of him winning more in the future are great.

Tiger and the future

I have to say that Scheffler’s win was big, but having Tiger play made the Masters. The most significant buzz of the week was if Tiger would play and how well. I know Tiger finished 47th, his worst professional finish at the Masters, but honestly, it could go down as a monumental finish for Tiger. He showed that his body is still able to play 72 holes. Yes, he shot 78-78 over the weekend, but the fact that he made it was an achievement. If you have access to the first round, watch Tiger. He looked very competitive in shooting 71. He showed that he could go low in a PGA Tour event. Can he win in the future, probably not but I can see Tiger being competitive and finishing in the top-ten. He may never win on a course like Augusta National, but he has a much better chance on a flat course like St. Andrews. I think that is the reason Tiger has said he would play at St. Andrews in July and leave us hanging on if he will play at the PGA Championship or the U.S. Open. Watching him on Friday, you could see the start of strain in his face and game. We will never know, but I think the weekend for Tiger was more challenging than most of us thought it was.

It was nice to see Tiger this week, and even if it was for only one round nice to see him playing well. Hopefully, his legs will get stronger, and he can achieve close to the level he has had in his career. Hogan found a way to do it, and I think his injuries were more problematic. But Tiger is nine years older, and that could be a problem. But I am looking forward to seeing Tiger again, even if it’s three months away in July.

In Closing:

One last thing, next week the PGA Tour Zurich Classic is a team event, there are no DraftKings or any games so we won’t have a Course Key or Preview next week.

Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage

This will be the 54th edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC nine years ago.  It was a long haul with many anxious moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.

Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989 the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.

The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969 even though it was a “turkey” of an event.  Originally it was going to be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000.  But Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people, including Charles Fraser, who owned the new course Harbour Town and suggested that he should apply for PGA Tour sanction instead of a small tournament.  They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament, which was Thanksgiving weekend.  Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course, played and brought some friends, including Arnold Palmer, who went out and won the first Heritage Classic.  Thanks to Palmer winning, they say that it put the tournament on the map and helped create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.

The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years.  It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March.  Between 1983 and 2019, it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for 2012 when it was two weeks after the Masters.  Because of COVID-19, it was played in June, but for this year, it’s returned to its usual place after the Masters.

Course information:

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Sea Pines Resort, Hilton Head Island, S.C.
• 7,191 yards     Par 36-35–71

Harbour Town Golf Links features a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating from the back tees of 147. The tees, fairway, and rough are Celebration BermudaGrass as the greens are Tif-Eagle Bermuda.  The course is a resort course and can be played by the public.  Last year Harbour Town was the 37th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 69.14 average.  One of the reasons it played so easily was the time of year it was played, and the weather was perfect with no wind.

The course was designed and built by Pete Dye in 1969.  Jack Nicklaus got his start in golf course architecture as he assisted Dye in the design and building of Harbour Town.   The average green size at Harbour Town is 4,500 square feet, which means it has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  The course has 145 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.

Over the years, the course has changed very little change, in 2011, seven new teeing grounds were put in with an added yardage of 127 yards for the 2012 event, taking the course over the 7,000 mark to 7,099.  The holes that yardage was added to were the 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16 & 18.  In most cases, players didn’t use a driver, but holes like 16 with an additional 36 yards will force players to hit a driver.  The same with 18, 20 yards has been added to a hole that will play to 472 yards.

There were also some changes in some of the bunkers so that they are more in play, and the area around the second green got some work.  Also, some trees that played havoc to those who hit it just off some of the fairways were removed, improving the sightlines.

Two last things, in the summer of 2015, every blade of grass on the layout had been replaced – tees, greens, rough, practice facility. The irrigation system was also replaced with the latest technology, so it may be a bit for the players to get the course’s feel and get to know all of the rolls and breaks on the greens.

Lastly, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew hit Hilton Head Island, and despite the power, other than debris and loss of trees, there was no long-range damage.  We saw what mother nature could do to a golf course when we see how heavy rains washed away the Greenbrier course, and they couldn’t play the Greenbrier Classic.  The same at Houston, rain from a Hurricane put the Golf Club of Houston underwater, but it was back to normal when the Houston Open was played.  For Hilton Head, they were lucky, yes even today, six years later, players will notice a lack of trees, especially on holes near the bay like 16, 17, and 18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in Harbour Town.

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, based on data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and using data from all the field players with stats from 2022. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Harbour Town last year was 70.33 and it was the 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Now in 2021, the average score was 69.14, making it the 37th hardest course on Tour. Now it’s the lowest scoring average the course has ever had since records were kept back in 1997. The reason probably is because the tournament was put back in June, conditions were much different. In 2019 the scoring average was 71.17, which ranked the 11th hardest course of the year. It was a half a shot tougher than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. Weather is always a factor, winds off the Atlantic make the course hard like it was in 2019, each day had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday, they had gusts up to 40 mph and Saturday at 30 mph. The good news for this week, in looking at the early weather reports, it will be warm and dry, except for Saturday morning and winds each day under 13 mph.

Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners haven’t been top-notch until Webb Simpson won it in 2020 and Stewart Cink won last year. In 2019 C.T. Pan won, and since the victory, he has only finished in the top five twice, a T-3rd at the Charles Schwab, a month after winning at Hilton Head. Pan also finished T-3rd at the 2021 Honda Classic. In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira won, and he also has struggled in 74 PGA Tour events since has not finished in the top-ten with a best finish of T-11th in the 2021 Wells Fargo. For 2022 his best finish is T-12th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, his only top-25 of the season. The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan, since winning, he has played in 66 events and has only had five top-25 finishes, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018, he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January 2019 had surgery which took a year to get better. Since coming back has played a limited schedule and struggled.

So the fact is winning the RBC Heritage has not been any kind of a launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour. Not only has Pan, Kodaira, or Bryan not returned to the winner’s circle, 2015 Jim Furyk has not won on the PGA Tour. The same with 2020 winner Webb Simpson and last year’s champion Stewart Cink, one thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions, the course tends to get an inexperienced winner, as we have seen. Another factor we are seeing, since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the schedule has been loaded with significant events week in and week out. Between now and the PGA Championship, there are only two powerhouse events, this and Wells Fargo, in four weeks. So a lot of players will be taking the next few weeks off. The field is suitable for this week but watches for a decrease in the weeks to come.

So what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America, it’s a different experience in which ball placement is of utmost overpowering. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2021, the course averaged 278.5 yards, meaning it was the 4th shortest of all the courses on Tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on Tour last year was TPC Scottsdale, 304.8 yards), players not only throttle it down, on many holes, they lay up with three woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy, you have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 29th (63.31%) in this stat compared to the others on Tour. In looking at past champions, seven of the last 13 were in the top-ten inaccuracy for the week. But that trend could be changing as the last three and five of the last six have not even been in the top-30. Last year’s champion Stewart Cink hit 31 of 54 fairways and ranked T-57th. 2020 champion Webb Simpson hit 33 of 54 fairways which ranked T-33rd. In 2019 C.T. Pan was terrible in this stat, as he hit just 29 of the 54 fairways and ranked T-59th, the worst of any champion since 1997. The year before, Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.

For our next categories in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens; Last year it ranked 19th, in 2020 it ranked 17th, in 2019, and in 2018, it ranked 6th on Tour. 2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th, while in 2016 it ranked 2nd on the Tour and it was in the top-6 in five of the last seven years. In the previous 25 years, 13 of the champions ranked in the top ten, with six leading the category. Stewart Cink was 1st in the category, hitting 56 of 72 greens the best of all the champions since 1997. 2020 winner, Webb Simpson, ranked T-12th and hit 53 of 72 greens. In 2019, C.T. Pan ranked 37th hitting 42 of 72 greens, while in 2018, Satoshi Kodaira ranked T-7th, so on the whole hitting greens is essential to winning at Harbour Town.

The next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet, they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course ranked 44th last year (63.80, 8th best on tour). In 2020 Harbour Town ranked 40th (67.14, 2nd best on Tour). In 2019 it ranked 42nd (62.99, 8th best on Tour) and 45th in 2018. It was 46th in 2017, 26th in 2016, and 49th best in 2015, which meant that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time, only three courses saw averages higher you have to scramble well to exist. Last year’s winner, Stewart Cink ranked T-4th getting it up and down 13 of 16 greens missed. In 2020 Webb Simpson, ranked T-27th while 2019 winner C.T. Pan ranked T-16th. 2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was T-13th mostly because he hit a lot of greens.
Last we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8 footers. Last year in this stat, Cink ranked T-25th mostly because he hit so many greens. In 2020 Simpson ranked 2nd, in 2019 Pan ranked 5th, while in 2018 Kodaira ranked T-13th. So maybe it’s best to pick those putters that make putts in the five to ten-foot range.

So as you can see, the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, every one of them is ranked at the bottom of driving distance, and the longest is Davis Love III, who won last in 2003. So think of it, every champion since has not hit it long, something that you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 29th in this stat while in 2020 it was 33rd in this stat. In 2019 it ranked 21st, 24th in 2018, 21st in 2017, 18th in 2016, and was 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town, last year Harbour Town ranked 19th while in 2020 it ranked 17th in this stat but was 6th in 2019 and in 2018. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2021 with 120 of the 132 players having stats

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all player stats for the RBC Heritage

DraftKings tips

Of the 132 in the field, 116 have played at least once at Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage since 2010:

• Matt Kuchar is 80 under in 48 rounds, playing 12 years
• Webb Simpson is 68 under in 44 rounds, playing 11 years
• Luke Donald is 63 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Ian Poulter is 49 under in 32 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jim Furyk is 41 under in 36 rounds, playing 11 years
• Kevin Streelman is 38 under in 34 rounds, playing 9 years
• Branden Grace is 37 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Dustin Johnson is 36 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Daniel Berger is 30 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 30 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Russell Knox is 30 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years
• Wesley Bryan is 28 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• C.T. Pan is 27 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Cameron Smith is 27 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is 27 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Alex Noren is 26 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Brian Stuard is 26 under in 32 rounds, playing 9 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 26 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• J.T. Poston is 26 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Brice Garnett is 24 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Charley Hoffman is 24 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Shane Lowry is 24 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Dylan Frittelli is 23 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Kevin Kisner is 23 under in 30 rounds, playing 9 years
• Stewart Cink is 22 under in 40 rounds, playing 12 years
• Maverick McNealy is 21 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,100
• Cameron Smith – $10,800
• Dustin Johnson – $10,500
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
• Shane Lowry – $9,800
• Corey Conners – $9,700
• Daniel Berger – $9,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick -$9,500
• Sungjae Im – $9,300
• Jordan Spieth – $9,200
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,100
• Russell Henley – $9,000

Have to say this is an easy event to judge, looking for those that hit it straight, hit greens, and putts well. So right off the bat, I have to wonder how many people will be taking Justin Thomas at $11,100.  Yes, he was T-8th at the Masters and T-3rd at Valspar, he was T-8th at the Heritage the last time he played the event in 2020.  But I just don’t think his putter is good enough for him to win so I say no to him.  I like Cameron Smith at $10,800, has made six Heritage starts he was T-9th last year and T-15th in 2015.  Missed the cut in 2020 & ’19, but is a much better player now.  I like him for his good putting and in his last two starts was T-3rd at the Masters and won the Players.  Hard to decide what to do with Dustin Johnson at $10,500.  He has played ok of late, T-12th at the Masters and 4th at the Match Play, I would think that Johnson would have a tough time at Hilton Head.  In a way, he is forced to play in this event, via his contract with RBC but his results have improved.  He was T-13th last year and we have to think he is learning and likes this course, so think of it in that manner.  Collin Morikawa at $10,200 is my second best choice, he was T-7th in this event last year and was 5th at the Masters and T-9th at the Match Play.  My first choice is Patrick Cantlay at $10,000.  I realize he missed the cut last year and didn’t play in 2020 but was T-3rd in 2019, T-7th in 2018, and T-3rd in 2017.  He hasn’t played well of late, was T-39th at the Masters and T-26th at the Match Play.  Matter of fact hasn’t played well since his 2nd at the Genesis, but I think the course is perfect for his game and he will win this event one day.  Shane Lowry at $9,800 is also a very savvy pick, he was T-9th last year and T-3rd in 2019.  He was T-3rd at the Masters and in his last five starts has only been out of the top-15 once.  Corey Conners at $9,700 is also a good choice, he was T-4th at Hilton Head last year.  At the Masters he was T-6th so he is in the zone right now.  Daniel Berger at $9,600 is a toss-up for me.  He has played well at Hilton Head, was T-13th last year, and T-3rd in 2020.  But he was T-50th at the Masters and hasn’t played well since the Honda.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,500 is again the best player in 2022 that we don’t think much of.  He was T-14th at the Masters and has been great this year.  At Hilton Head, he was T-4th last year and T-14th in 2020 so he is a good choice.  Sungjae Im at $9,300 is also a person to think about, he was T-8th at the Masters and T-13th last year at the Heritage.  Jordan Spieth at $9,200 is a big no for me, yes he played ok seven years ago at Hilton Head but now is struggling with his game, missing the cut at the Masters a tournament he always does well at.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,100 is a yes for me, he was T-5th in his only Heritage start in 2020.  Had a first-round 69 at the Masters but struggled after that to finish T-35th.  Russell Henley at $9,000 is a no for me, yes he was T-9th at Heritage last year, yes he has made cuts on the PGA Tour but nothing dramatic.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Heritage on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Heritage starts:

• Matt Kuchar made 12 cuts in 12 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Webb Simpson made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Ian Poulter made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Branden Grace made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Dustin Johnson made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,500.
• Daniel Berger made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Wesley Bryan made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Alex Noren made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Dylan Frittelli made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Wyndham Clark made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Justin Thomas made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,100.
• Jordan Spieth made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Brian Harman made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Charley Hoffman made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Kevin Streelman made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Brice Garnett made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• C.T. Pan made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Brian Stuard made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Billy Horschel made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Shane Lowry made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Patrick Cantlay made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,000.
• Emiliano Grillo made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Luke Donald made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Tyrrell Hatton made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Brandt Snedeker made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Mackenzie Hughes made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Pat Perez made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Ben Martin made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Graeme McDowell made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Hard decision to make with Webb Simpson at $8,800.  His record is phenomenal at the Heritage with a win in 2020 and a 2nd in 2013.  Last year he was T-9th, at the time he was in a lot of pain so it was a great finish.  He is coming back from a herniated disk, the good news is he played ok at the Masters so maybe he is a good choice.  But I say no, with him still rehabbing paying $8,800 is a risk.  Tyrrell Hatton at $8,600 is someone to take, yes he struggled at the Masters but still made the cut.  Hatton finished T-3rd in 2020 so we know he can play well on the course.  Harold Varner III at $8,500 is a good bet, we all have been wondering when he will win and who knows, it could be this week.  He was runner-up last year and has played well in 2022 including a T-23rd last week at the Masters which included a third-round 80.  Kevin Kisner is priced right at $8,100.  Yes been up and down at the Heritage but he was runner-up in 2015 and does play well in the southeast.  On the PGA Tour was T-44th at the Masters, runner-up at the Match Play, and 4th at the Players, a good time to bet on him.  I always like Maverick McNealy and this week he is just $7,900.  He was T-4th last year at the Heritage and played solidly making 12 cuts in a row.  Now my longshot pick of the week is Matt Kuchar at $7,800.  I like him because in 18 starts he only missed one cut, in his first year.  Since then has won the event in 2014 and been in the top-ten, six times.  He was 2nd in 2019 and I feel he could contend as he did ten days ago at the Valero Texas Open when he finished T-2nd.  So yes he is a great pick.  Brian Harman at $7,700 is also a good pick, he finished T-13th last year.  Now he missed the cut at the Masters but a couple of weeks ago finished T-5th at the Valspar.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Ian Poulter is $7,500 and has done well on the course.  Erik Van Rooyen is $7,300 and his only Heritage start was T-21st in 2020. Last year Stewart Cink was $6,700 and I pleaded with people to take him.  The three-time champion is again in the field and this year Cink is $7,200 and a great pick.  So last year Cink won at $6,700, this year our $6,700 pick is Branden Grace who won the event in 2016.  Last we look at two players with great history at Harbour Town.  First at $6,300 is Jim Furyk who won the Heritage in 2015 and can still make cuts on the PGA Tour.  Another $6,300 is Luke Donald who has finished runner-up five times and I feel has one more good event left in him.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Heritage:

The key stat for the winner:

• Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America; it’s a different experience in which ball placement is of utmost overpower.  Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. So what will it take to win this week’s Heritage Classic?
• What makes the course tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Over the last 16 years, they have been difficult to hit, of all the tournaments the U.S. Open is the only one that ranks harder to hit than the greens of Hilton Head.
• Over the years putting and hitting greens have been vital to winning at Harbour Town.  If you look at the list of Heritage champions all of them are good putters, especially from the ten to twenty feet range.
• With greens as small as those Hilton Head scrambling is an essential element in being able to win.  Remember this, Harbour Town is a course in which you have to scramble well on it.  Last year seven courses were harder to get up and down.  But in 2020 only one course scrambled better than Harbour Town as the field got it up and down 67.14% of the time. Look at the recent winners to see how important this stat is.  Last year’s winner, Stewart Cink ranked T-4th getting it up and down 13 of 16 greens missed.  In 2020 Webb Simpson, ranked T-27th getting it up and down 14 of 19 times.  In 2019 C.T. Pan missed 30 greens but got it up and down on 22 of these greens in his winning effort.  The year before Satoshi Kodaira missed 23 greens but got it up and down 17 times and was T-13th in scrambling.  In 2017, Wesley Bryan missed 32 greens but got it up and down 27 times to lead the field in scrambling.  In 2016 Branden Grace was 22 of 28 greens missed, he was 3rd in scrambling, in 2015 Jim Furyk led the stat getting it up and down 21 of the 22 greens he missed, the best in championship history.  The year before Matt Kuchar was 12th in that stat on the PGA Tour in 2014. The 2013 winner Graeme McDowell led the scrambling list at Harbour Town getting it up and down 79.2% of the time.  In 2012 Carl Pettersson was 21st, and Brandt Snedeker did an excellent job at 20th. But in the years before it was even better as in 2010, Jim Furyk was 4th in this category, getting it up and down 23 of 28 times.  In 2009 Brian Gay was first in this category, getting it up and down 22 of 24 tries.  In 2007 Boo Weekley only took 97 putts and won the category, Aaron Baddeley was 7th in his win in 2006, Davis Love III was 3rd in his 2003 victory, Justin Leonard was 7th in his 2002 win, Jose Coceres was 5th in 2001, and Nick Price was 3rd in 1997.
• Heritage always seems to have dramatic finishes.  In the last 18 of the 23 Heritage’s, eight of them have had playoffs, seven have had a one-stroke margin of victory while the other was two, four, and five.  Last year Stewart Cink won by four shots.  In 2020 Webb Simpson beat Abraham Ancer by a shot.  In 2019 C.T. Pan won by a shot over Matt Kuchar.  In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira beat SiWoo Kim in a playoff, in 2017 Wesley Bryan beat Luke Donald by a shot while the year before Branden Grace was the exception to the rule beating Luke Donald and Russell Knox by two shots.  The previous year Jim Furyk beat Kevin Kisner in a playoff while in 2014 Matt Kuchar defeated Luke Donald by a shot, thanks to a Kuchar birdie on the 72nd hole. In 2013 Graeme McDowell won in a playoff with Webb Simpson while in 2012 Carl Pettersson had an easy time winning by five.  In 2011 Snedeker went three extra holes before beating Luke Donald.   Can’t get any more exciting than in 2007 when Boo Weekley beat Ernie Els by a shot, but he chipped in on 17 and 18 for the win.  In 2010 Jim Furyk beat Brian Davis in a playoff.  So you just have to think things will be close at the end of Sunday.
• Just like last week with some weather that came into Augusta earlier in the week, the weather will be a factor over the weekend with thunderstorms and showers on Saturday and Sunday.