BlogMexico Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week the Tour moves back to Mexico in kind of a replacement for the WGC-Mexico Championship which was played in Mexico City between 2017 and 2020.  That event turned into a big success, being in Mexico City they had a lot of local folks attend the event.  Unfortunately, Covid-19 prevented the event to go back to Mexico as the event was moved to Florida for its last event.  Since the tournament is gone, it looks like the World Golf Championships are also near the end.

What the tour did was keep in touch with the Mexican company Grupo Salinas, which was important in bringing the WGC-Mexico Championship to Mexico City.  What they are doing is turning the country’s National Championship, the Mexico Open and turning it into a yearly PGA Tour stop.  The event has a long history, it started in 1944 and the first four of them were won by Al Espinosa.  Over the years it has had a great list of champions like Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Ben Crenshaw, Bob Rosburg, Jay Haas, John Cook, and Stewart Cink to name a few.  It was part of the PGA Tour Latinoamerica Tour for the last couple of years.

The field will consist of 144 players with about a dozen professionals that have ties with Mexico.  Now the field isn’t great, other than Jon Rahm the field is sparse as most of the marquee players are taking the week off.

So what has happened since we last talked at the Heritage?

Personally, I got Covid last Monday. It was a day and a half of having a terrible head cold and today I am about 85% back to normal.  Still have some weird side effects like having some kind of metallic taste in my mouth which is getting old.  Guess because I have been vaccinated and gotten the booster it struck me easily, but still, it’s something that is still with us two years later.  What is the mystery is how I got it, yes a week before I was in Atlanta airport so that is the only place I could think I got it, oh well it will stay a mystery but looks like I survived the ordeal.

Was totally stunned and shocked that Jordan Spieth won the Heritage.  The last I saw him was at Augusta and he was struggling big time with his putter and game.  I wrote before the Heritage that after seeing him struggle on Friday, I believed that the season was going to be a bust for Spieth.  But in a span of just five days, he proved me wrong but he did it in a totally different way.  We know that Spieth is one of the best around and on the greens, but during his week at Hilton Head, he had one of his worst performances with the putter.  71 players made the cut and Spieth ranked 60th in Strokes Gained Putting.  In putting from 4 to 8 feet Spieth was 71st, dead last.  Now he wasn’t perfect from tee to green, he was T-9th in Greens hit but won the tournament by being very consistent in hitting greens and getting up and down on the greens he missed.  Now the big question with the PGA Championship just a month away, is he the early favorite?  We all know that Spieth is just a win away at the PGA Championship and many wonders if he could accomplish that at Southern Hills.  Now the easy answer is, of course, yes, but if he is putting as bad as he did at Hilton Head it just won’t happen.

Xander finally gets the big “W” or is it really a win?

I know that many are making a big deal that Xander Schauffele won at the Zurich Classic.  I am sorry, I just don’t buy that a player gets a win in a team event so as far as I am concerned Xander’s last win is the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions.  Now on the other end of the spectrum, just last summer Xander won the Olympics and even though it’s not considered “official,” I buy into that being a very legitimate victory.  So I really feel that Xander still has that monkey on his back of not really winning since 2019.

In a way, Xander’s predicament is a lot like Viktor Hovland’s.  He may be credited with three PGA Tour events and a total of six wins around the world.  Now his three PGA Tour wins aren’t on the US mainland, his wins came in Puerto Rico and two times in Mexico.  His other three wins came at the BMW International in Germany in 2021, the Hero World Challenge in Bermuda, and the Dubai Desert Classic back in January.  So just like Xander, Viktor has an asterisk next to his name which sounds weird but is a fact of life.

Things you need to know about Mexico Open

This may be called the first Mexico Open, but as we have said historically the Mexico Open started in 1944.  It will take the place of the WGC-Mexico Championship which had a terrific five-year run.  Now the difference between the two, the WGC-Mexico Championship was played at for four years at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City.  At that event, it was mostly locals from the city and it turned into a very good event that had a lot of community support.

For the Mexico Open, it goes to the Greg Norman signature course at Vidanta Vallarta, which is a tourist community outside of Puerto Vallarta.  So the event will be marketed toward those on vacation in Puerto Vallarta which has a lot of resorts and hotels dotting the beaches.

Course information:

• Vidanta Vallarta (Greg Norman Course)
• Vallarta, Mexico
• 7,456 yards     Par 35-36–71

The Greg Norman course at Vidanta Vallarta opened in 2016 but over the last year has gone through some modifications in the last year for this event.  The course winds along the Amecas River and provides views of the Sierra Madre Mountains.  It’s a par 71 course that will be played at 7,456.  The course has a slope ranking of 143 and from the back tees is rated at 75.1.  The course is accessed by the longest golf cart suspension bridge in the world, which is 560 feet long.

Now for mortals like you and I, the course is very demanding.  But I feel for the best players in the world, we will see a lot of birdies and eagles.  What makes the course tough for you and me are the water hazards and large waste areas and patches of indigenous vegetation.  But the best players in the world will find a course with wide, inviting fairways and perfect playing conditions.  Yes, the greens have undulations on them, but they are in perfect shape and will be great to those that putt well.  The biggest challenge for the players will be the wind, the course lies just a half mile away from the Pacific Ocean so that will affect how the course is played.

For the average player, water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes.  But for the best players in the world, water will come into play on 11 holes, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 14, and 17.  The secret of playing well will be in the shots into the greens and being able to make a lot of 10-foot putts.  There are four par 5s, with two of them playing over 600 yards.  Despite that, all will be accessible in two and the winner will need to play these four holes in at least 10 under, I can see them being 13 and 14 under on these holes.  So power off the tee will be important, yes we can classify Vidanta Vallarta as a “Bombers course.”

Now the par 5s are easy, but the five par 3s will give players a real challenge.  Four of the five have water seriously in play, so if a player can get around in 1 or 2 under, he will have a big advantage.  For the players spotting iguanas is part of the fun while you keep an eye on the crocodiles sunning in the neighboring sanctuary.

The greens on the Greg Norman course range in size from average to huge, have plenty of slope and contour (including tiers and valleys) and were in very good condition.  Most are raised with lots of false fronts and all are well guarded with 40 bunkers.  If you miss a green expect the ball to roll into a collection area.  From there you will be presented with the way you try and get it up and down.  Some will fly it to the pin while others will bump and run it up.  You fly it to the pin you’re bound to not get it right and have more problems.  So most of the time you will see a player bump it onto the green and close to the hole.

So is the course hard enough so that a marquee player has the advantage of winning?

I say no, frankly I can’t see a Jon Rahm or a Gary Woodland winning this week.  The winner will be the player who finds all of these special areas to be important and they are able to produce the shot to get it up and down.  Again the old saying the hottest golfer as of today will make this a very hard event to pick.  So keep a very open mind while making your picks, it will be hard for success this week.

Wish I could give you a better way of choosing players, but in a way, it’s best to look at results from these four events to see the trend on who to pick.  The Mexico Open will resemble these events, which are also played along the ocean and have the elements of wind.  So look at the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Corales Puntacana Championship as the way players win.  You will see no rhyme or reason in choosing winners and basically, the players who will play well is those that find some secret in the days before the start of the event.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jon Rahm – $11,300
• Tony Finau – $10,400
• Abraham Ancer – $10,300
• Kevin Na – $10,100
• Patrick Reed – $10,000
• Gary Woodland – $9,900
• Sebastian Munoz – $9,800
• Cameron Tringale – $9.700
• Chris Kirk – $9,600
• Aaron Wise – $9,500
• Cameron Champ – $9,400
• Brendon Todd – $9,300
• Russell Knox – $9,200
• Kevin Streelman – $9,100
• Matt Jones – $9,000

Before we start this week’s Mexico Open it’s important to note that we have no information on past results so we don’t know who likes and plays the course well.  We don’t even think that many of the players have ever seen Vidanta Vallarta before this week so it’s safe to say that everyone is on equal terms on course knowledge.  Frankly, my best advice to you is to take the week off and get ready for next week’s Wells Fargo, which also has a few problems associated with it.

Other than Jon Rahm, this week doesn’t have many marquee players, so all of the values of players are greatly skewed.  Candidly, of the 15 players listed above, I am only comfortable with four, Kevin Na, Cameron Tringale, Cameron Champ, and Matt Jones.  Of the others, I can tolerate Jon Rahm and Abraham Ancer so it’s best to find those best picks in the 8,000 price range.  One thing that you should think of, instead of looking for winners, in a full field of 144 players if you pick-six that makes the cut you will win money.

Our first player Jon Rahm at $11,300, he is a hard one to pick.  He took much of the fall off and we thought it was a great decision when he finished 2nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.  He was T-3rd at the Farmers and T-10th at Phoenix but has struggled since, mostly with his putter.  He also hasn’t been very consistent of late, having that one poor round that has torpedoed him.  In looking at courses like Vidanta Vallarta he has a limited past so it’s best to take a pass on Rahm.  Tony Finau at $10,400 is also a poor choice, he has been terrible all year.  His biggest problem is not from tee-to-green but after that, he has struggled.  He ranks 195th in Strokes Gained Putting, in his last five years his worst performance was 134th in 2017.  Finau was 91st in putting last year so you can see one of his flaws in 2022.  Another is in greens he missed, in 2021 he was 20th in Strokes Gained Around the Green but this year is 172nd.  Could Finau find some magic this week, yes.  He has won in Puerto Rico and can play well this week, but I am not going to bet on it.  Frankly, I think he has as good of a chance of missing the cut than getting into the top-ten.  Abraham Ancer at $10,300 I can see, I don’t like the price but he has shown some promising starts like his T-5th at the Match Play.  But in his last start at the Masters, he missed the cut, and truthfully he doesn’t show us much good form for a guy with such a high price on him.  Kevin Na at $10,100 could be worth the big price, he hasn’t had the best of years but he had a newborn a couple of months ago and that has been a problem for him.  He was T-14th at the Masters and T-9th at the Match Play so I can see him winning this week.  Patrick Reed at $10,000 is a no for me, he hasn’t shown us much since finishing T-3rd at the Hero World Challenge.  Yes, he was T-2nd in Bermuda which has to make you wonder if he could find the same magic in Mexico, but he still hasn’t played well in his last eight starts.  His big problem, is he has struggled with not only the driver but has also been poor in hitting greens, he ranks T-173rd in Greens in Regulation.  Gary Woodland at $9,900 is also a no from me even though he was T-5th at the Honda and Palmer, was also T-8th at the Valero.  He just doesn’t play this kind of course well and I think he will struggle.  Have to think about Sebastian Munoz at $9,800.  Yes, Puerto Vallarta is not like his home in Columbia, but it will be close.  Munoz’s problem is that he makes a lot of checks but struggles to play four consistent rounds.  But he finished T-4th at the Zozo and 3rd at the RSM in conditions similar to what he will find this week, so yes despite the high-cost Munoz could do well.  I like Cameron Tringale at $9.700, he has played well of late finishing T-10th at Zurich and T-12th at Heritage.  He was T-3rd at Farmers and T-2nd at Zozo.  I can see him having a great week.  Chris Kirk at $9,600 is a toss-up for me, yes has shown some good form this week finishing T-7th at Honda and T-5th at Palmer.  So he plays well in windy conditions, he has the game to play well this week, but can he play well?  Aaron Wise at $9,500 played well in the fall, but since has struggled and I see that continuing this week.  Cameron Champ at $9,400 is a very good choice.  He is one of the longest hitters on tour and this course is suited for that kind of play.  Now in his career he only makes 60% of his cut so in picking him you are putting yourself in danger of him missing the cut, still, he won last year at the 3M on a course similar to Vidanta Vallarta so it’s worth the game.  His last start was T-10th at the Masters.  As for Brendon Todd at $9,300 I struggle with the choice, yes he was T-8th at the Valero but one thing to remember is he plays well at Mayakoba, was T-11th this year, and T-8th last year and we have to remember he won at Mayakoba and Bermuda in 2019 so we have to keep an open mind on him.  Russell Knox at $9,200 and again another person to keep an open mind on.  In 2022 he was T-6th at the Players, T-7th at the Sony Open, and T-12th at Bermuda, all courses with wind and ocean conditions to contend with.  Kevin Streelman at $9,100 is a no for me, just doesn’t play courses like Vidanta Vallarta well.  Matt Jones at $9,000 is a person that is easy to say no to, but he has one or two good moments a year.  Just have to wonder if he has used those up, he was 3rd at Sentry Tournament of Champions and T-2nd at the Valero Texas Open so I guess we have to think about his.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I can see Doug Ghim at $8,900.  He was T-6th at the Players, mostly due to him getting great tee times, and even though that is his only top-25 finish of the season he could play well this week. Carlos Ortiz at $8,600 is someone to consider, he was 2nd at Mayakoba last year but he has been lost in his game missing his last four cuts.  Still, that hasn’t stopped others from changing things around and winning.  Davis Riley at $8,500 could be a good pick, he was 2nd at Valspar and T-4th at Zurich.  Now he was T-7th at Bermuda.  Mark Hubbard at $8,000 is a person to watch, he has played consistently in a combination of PGA Tour and Korn Ferry starts including T-5th at Chitimacha Louisiana Open and T-14th last week at Zurich.  He is someone that could take advantage of this PGA Tour start.  Chad Ramey at $7,900 is someone that most will think of, but he did win Corales and was T-5th at Puerto Rico.  Anirban Lahiri at $7,900 is another that not many will think of but he was 2nd at the Players.  David Lipsky at $7,700 was T-4th at Zurich last week and was T-7th at Corales.  Patrick Rodgers at $7,600 is someone to think about, he was 4th at Bermuda and could find the course to his liking.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Memorial

Watch Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $7,400, he was T-2nd at Abu Dhabi and he could surprise a lot of people this week.  Look at Brian Stuard at $7,300, he was T-7th at Corales, T-9th at the windy Honda, and T-3rd last year at 3M.  Brandon Wu at $7,300 is feasible, he was T-3rd at Puerto Rico.  Scott Piercy at $7,200 is a person that has the game, just has to find it.  He was T-12th at Heritage.  Graeme McDowell at $7,100 is either a person that will do well or miss the cut.  He has played well at Corales, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda, his wins have come in locations near the water with the wind so he is worth the gamble.  Peter Uihlein at $7,000 is also a person to think of, has his moments like finishing 2nd last month at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Mexico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

Lots of patience in learning the course also will take a lot of patience in which birdies and eagles will be easy to make.  This doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour but if the weather is good, they could take apart this course.

Another key:

The ability to hit it long and straight could be the way to winning this event.

The greens are very demanding and with them being hard they will bounce off the greens and give players challenging pitches in which they either have to bump and run them to the pin or fly it to the pin.

Last we have to talk about the weather.  The course hasn’t seen any rain in two weeks now so it’s going to be hard and firm.  But looking at the weather forecast, every day is going to be picture perfect with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.  Winds will come off the ocean at 12 mph so look for great scoring conditions.Who to watch for at the Mexico Open

My Top three choices

Cameron Champ – With his distance he has a very big advantage over the field.  He is one of the longest hitters on tour and this course is suited for that kind of play.  Now in his career he only makes 60% of his cut so in picking him you are putting yourself in danger of him missing the cut, still, he won last year at the 3M on a course similar to Vidanta Vallarta so it’s worth taking him.  His last start was T-10th at the Masters.

Kevin Na – He struggled between January through March but he had a newborn a couple of months ago and that has been a problem for him.  He was T-14th at the Masters and T-9th at the Match Play so I can see him winning this week.  This is the type of course he does win on.

Jon Rahm – Yes he is a favorite and despite a “spotty” year for him, many would love it.  He was T-27th at the Masters and all of his ills is putting, if he can find a way to putt better he will contend and could win this week.

Other good choices for this week

Cameron Tringale – Has played well of late finishing T-10th at Zurich and T-12th at Heritage.  He was T-3rd at Farmers and T-2nd at Zozo.  I can see him having a great week.

Abraham Ancer – Yes he has struggled in 2022 but he was T-5th at the Match Play and I feel that Vidanta Vallarta really suits his game.  He was T-7th at Mayakoba, his parents were born in Mexico and he would love to win in his parent’s home country.

Sebastian Munoz – Has Spanish roots even though he was born in Columbia, he should feel at home this week.  Munoz problem is that he makes a lot of checks but struggles to play four consistent rounds.  But he finished T-4th at the Zozo and 3rd at the RSM in conditions similar to what he will find this week, so yes despite the high-cost Munoz could do well.

Anirban Lahiri – If he could finish 2nd at the Players, this week should be a piece of cake for him.

Others to consider this week

Brendon Todd – He was T-8th at the Valero but one thing to remember he plays well at Mayakoba, was T-11th this year, and T-8th last year and we have to remember he won at Mayakoba and Bermuda in 2019 so we have to keep an open mind on him.

Mark Hubbard – He is a person to watch, he has played consistently in a combination of PGA Tour and Korn Ferry starts including T-5th at Chitimacha Louisiana Open and T-14th last week at Zurich.  He is someone that could take advantage of this PGA Tour start.

Matt Jones – He has one or two good moments a year.  Just have to wonder if he has used those up, he was 3rd at Sentry Tournament of Champions and T-2nd at the Valero Texas Open so I guess we have to think about his.

Graeme McDowell – He is either a person that will do well or miss the cut.  He has played well at Corales, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda, his wins have come in locations near the water with the wind so he is worth the gamble.

Our longshots this week

Patrick Rodgers – Is someone to think about, he was 4th at Bermuda and could find the course to his liking.

Brian Stuard – He was T-7th at Corales, T-9th at the windy Honda, and T-3rd last year at 3M.

Peter Uihlein – Also a person to think of, has his moments like finishing 2nd last month at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open

Just don’t see it for him this week

Tony Finau – He has been terrible all year.  His biggest problem is not from tee-to-green but after that, he has struggled.  He ranks 195th in Strokes Gained Putting, in his last five years his worst performance was 134th in 2017.  Finau was 91st in putting last year so you can see one of his flaws in 2022.  Another is in greens he missed, in 2021 he was 20th in Strokes Gained Around the Green but this year is 172nd.  Could Finau find some magic this week, yes.  He has won in Puerto Rico and can play well this week, but I am not going to bet on it.  Frankly, I think he has as good of a chance of missing the cut than getting into the top-ten.