BlogWells Fargo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So how about Jon Rahm winning in Mexico. He is probably the best tee-to-green player on tour. Rahm ranks 1st and is 1st in Greens in Regulation in total driving. Despite all this, he still seems to struggle, and this week he did look like he struggled. I am not saying from tee to green, but once around the green, it’s not pretty. In Strokes Gained Around the Green, he ranks 153rd, mainly because he is T-134th in scrambling and 193rd in Sand Saves. Putting is not pretty. He ranks 114th in Strokes-Gained putting, T-194th in Putts per round, and T-145th inputting inside ten feet. In comparison, look at two players, first Cameron Smith. He is 8th in Greens in Regulation but 180th in total driving, which is his problem. But around the greens, he is better, T-42nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green, 52nd in Sand Saves, and 75th in scrambling. Where Smith excels is putting, he is 4th in Strokes Gained Putting, 9th in Putts per Round, and 4th in putts inside ten feet. So that is why when Smith wins, he makes it look easy.

The same with Scottie Scheffler. He is 6th in Greens in Regulation and 32nd in total driving. He is good around the green and ranks 31st in Strokes Gained Around the Green even though he is 93rd in Sand Saves and 133rd in scrambling. But like Smith is great on the greens ranking 17th in Strokes Gained Putting, 47th in Putts per Round, and T-93rd inputting inside ten feet. If your good around and on the greens, it makes things look a lot easier.

Despite the lack of winning and making it look hard, Rahm is the most prolific player in golf right now. Since turning pro in 2016 and joining the PGA Tour, he has played in 118 events with 60 top-tens, a 51% top-ten ranking. These are Tiger Woods’s numbers. In his prime between turning pro in 1996 and 2009, Woods played in 239 PGA Tour events and was in the top-ten 164 times or 69% of the time.

As a comparison, since 2020, when Scheffler joined the tour, he has played in 66 PGA Tour events and been in the top ten only 22 times, so he gets a top-ten 30% of the time. For Cameron Smith, since 2018, he has played in 100 PGA Tour events and been in the top-ten 25 times or 25% of the time. Still, Rahm is better with seven wins, but Smith has five wins, and Scheffler is at 4, so they both are close to Rahm.

Still, the point is despite being so good, Rahm has problems closing the deal. When Rahm holds or co-leads the 18-hole lead, he is 2 for 9. On 36 hole leads or co-leads, he is 1 for 7, and with 54 hole leads/co-leads is a dismal 2 for 7. So you can see why I say that Rahm struggles to win. Still, he is only 27 and could be on the verge of breaking out. But when you think of superstars like Woods and Jack Nicklaus, they were both great putters, Rahm is not. But if he could improve his putting in the next three years, he could be one of the greatest. His tee to green game is as good as Woods and Nicklaus.

It looks like Finau is back, or is he really back?

One of the big mysteries of 2022 is the poor play of Tony Finau. When he wrapped up 2021 with a win at the Northern Trust and finished 11th in the FedEx Cup, we expected to see more good play from him. But it’s been the complete opposite for Finau. Before the Mexico Open, he played in 12 PGA Tour events, and his best finish was T-19th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Now we can see what Finau’s problem is, and it’s a combination of two things putting and his around the green game. Last year he was 91st in Strokes Gained Putting. This year he is 195th. In Strokes Gained Around the green, he is 144th, while last year, he was 20th. So these key areas are the problem for Tony. In looking at his stats from Mexico, where he finished T-2nd, his scrambling was a lot better but putting was still terrible for the week. So it had to be the golf course that helped him play so well. As for his tee-to-green game, he is ok, so many think Finau will be a good choice for the Wells Fargo. Honestly, I want to see one more event and see how he does before I venture out. Again the course in Mexico was perfect for his game. The same can’t be said for TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.

He’s back or is he?

In the field this week is Paul Casey. After finishing 3rd at the Players Championship, we thought that maybe Casey would be an essential player in future events. The following week the tour was to be played at the Valspar, an event he won in 2018 and ’19. But Casey withdrew with an undisclosed injury. The following week at the Match Play, he tried to play but was forced to concede all three of his matches. He showed up at Augusta and even played in the Par 3 with his son as his caddy, but on Thursday morning struggled with back spasms and withdrew. He has been quiet on the extent of his injuries and again is in the field for this week’s Wells Fargo. So fair warning, we have no idea how severe his back is. He has had the same problem throughout his career. So it’s best not to bet on Casey this week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Last time in Washington

The D.C. area had a regular PGA Tour tournament between 1980 and 2018, except when the Quicken Loans National moved to Aronimink for two years in 2010 & 2011. Between 1980 and 2006, the event was the old Kemper Open which changed to the Booz Allen Classic. When that event folded up, Quicken Loans teamed up with Tiger Woods in 2007 for the AT&T National, which in 2014 turned into the Quicken Loans National. When the tournament was played on the fourth of July weekend, the first couple of years was a great event with great fields. In its first year in 2007,  47 of the top-100 participated. Those first three years, the event was held at Congressional, and many tour players felt that they would give Tiger Woods and his foundation a hand by attending. But after Tiger’s personal problems in 2009 and ’10, things changed. The tournament relocated to Pennsylvania for two years. The competition started losing its luster. After it became known that Congressional wasn’t interested in hosting the event and fields got worst, it also became a problem finding sponsors. So in a way, it was no big surprise to see the Tiger Woods foundation step aside, and the tournament sponsor, Quicken Loans decided to take the event to its native home and have a fresh new start in Detroit starting in 2019. I live in the Washington D.C. area, and even though I didn’t attend the competition, I know that many folks loved going and have missed having a PGA Tour event. Hopefully, something can be found for the Washington area in the future, but I fear that with other cities like Denver, St. Louis, and Seattle, maybe it will be a long time before the PGA Tour puts up stakes in the Washington D.C. area again. Kind of a shame for us who lives here.

Tournament information:

This is the 19th year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which has been played every year at the  Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, except for 2017 and this year. In 2017 Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, N.C., was used, and the event was a big success as the community of Wilmington made it a big hit. Still, the course of record for the Wells Fargo is Quail Hollow. But with the Presidents Cup being played in the fall, the event moves to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms. It will return to Quail Hollow next year, but in 2025 it will be the site of the PGA Championship, so this event will have to move again. There are also rumors that the Club doesn’t want a year-to-year commitment, so it will be interesting to see the future of this very popular event.

Course information:

• TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms
• Bethesda, MD.
• 7,160 yards     Par 35-35–70

Opened thirty-six years ago in 1986, the course was roundly criticized for poor design in its early years. It was also plagued by years of flooding and drainage problems and various turfgrass issues that affected the greens and often produced less than satisfactory tournament conditions. As a result, many top professionals stayed away, and the Kemper/Booz Allen tournament became unofficially relegated to “B” event status.

In the summer of 2005, Dewberry and Davis land surveying crews were regularly seen taking measurements across the facility, sparking rumors that the long-criticized course would finally be reconfigured. Confirmation came in 2007 when it began a $32 million golf course and clubhouse renovation to bring back a tournament to the Washington D.C. area. The renovation was a complete redo while keeping the original routing. But the course was reshaped into a new 7,107-yard course at par 70, with Rock Run Creek being expanded and cleaned up.

So what has happened to make the course better? Numerous competitive and aesthetic changes were made to the golf course to make it more challenging for tournament play. This included significant modifications, reshaping, and enhancements to all 18 holes, featuring a complete re-design of holes 10, 11, and 13; lengthening of the course to 7,139 yards, with a new par-70 design; a new state-of-the-art irrigation system; an aesthetic and competitive design solution to stormwater management issues on holes 4, 5, 6, 10, 11 and 12.

All the greens, tees, and fairways were rebuilt with Bentgrass and a new irrigation and drainage system during the renovations. The greens were re-orientated and re-contoured, and all bunkers were re-positioned and reshaped, giving it more of a Scottish feel and adding tall fescue grasses to some. All holes were re-graded and had their fairways reduced to approximately 30 to 35 yards. Accent features like stone walls and eight timber bridges create an older feel and charm. Along with these changes, an expansive new practice facility and the short game area were built. So hopefully, things will be better.

When the course reopened and was used for the 2017 Quicken Loans, the course played to an average of 71.46 or a shot and a half over par. It was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2017. The course played to a 69.89 average the following year, just about par, and was the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Look for some of the same this year.

On top of the main renovations, in 2020, several bunkers were done, a new tee was added to the 2nd hole, and a new right fairway bunker was put in on the 18th hole.

So the big question will be what kind of game will prevail this week? The course will not be a bombers’ delight like last week. The fairways are generous, but there will be rough and 24 bunkers that protect the fairways if a fairway is missed. There are no water hazards in play for the pros on the front nine, but on the back, a creek is in play at 10 and 11, and a lake will come into play on the par 3, 17th hole. So wild drives will be penalized. If there is a clue on who the course favors, both 2017 Champion Kyle Stanley and 2018 champion Francesco Molinari led the Greens in Regulation stats, and both were in the top-four in fairways hit. So look for a good driver who hits many greens to prevail this week.

Now in looking for those with some history at TPC Potomac, check out our list of those that played at TPC Potomac in 2017 and ’18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.

Despite Quail Hollow being the permanent home of the Wells Fargo, for the second time in its 20-year history, a new venue will be used this year. Because of the Presidents Cup being held at Quail Hollow in the fall, the Wells Fargo will go up to the Washington D.C. area and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. This is the second time that Wells Fargo has traveled, in 2017 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, N.C. was the site. Now, this won’t be the last time for a move, in 2025 the PGA Championship will return to Quail Hollow meaning a move for the Wells Fargo. There have also been rumors over the years that the powers to be at Quail Hollow would like to not be the regular venue of the Wells Fargo which would mean the event will have to look for another home.
Now TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm was built in 1985 it was built with the purpose of holding the Kemper Open. For years the event was held at Congressional, but membership was looking for a U.S. Open, and event organizers didn’t want to pay the high fees for Congressional and at the time the thought of it being the permanent home of the tournament was intriguing.
But players hated the course, called TPC Avenel back then. The course had drainage problems and was never in that great a shape. One of the reasons the Kemper/Booz Allen ended was because of the course. The changes the Tour promised to the course never happened so Booz Allen dropped their sponsorship. After the last Booz Allen in 2006, the course had a massive renovation with every hole being worked on making it more pleasing to not only the members but touring pros. Both the Champions Tour and the Web.Com Tour held events and the players gave them positive reviews. So when a new event came to the Washington area, Quicken Loans officials gave it a two-year test in 2017 and ’18, to see what the reaction would be. The experiment worked, the drastic changes they made on the course were well received by pros and even though the Quicken Loans went away after the 2018 event, it was known that another PGA Tour event would be played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, so it gets another run this week.

In looking at the stats of the old course from 2006, it ranked 47th in driving accuracy, 46th in greens hit, T-38th in birdie average, 14th in Scrambling, and 27th in putting average. As for past winners, they did have some major winners with Tom Kite, Mark Brooks, Lee Janzen, Justin Leonard, Rich Beem, Ben Curtis, and Adam Scott winning. But the course was famous for producing a lot of surprise winners as Frank Lickliter, Steve Stricker, Rich Beem, and Tom Scherrer claimed their first PGA Tour wins at TPC Potomac. If these names aren’t non-marquee enough, here are some more winners at TPC Potomac, Morris Hataksky, Tom Byrum, and Grant Waite, guys that hardly moved the merit in marquee value. Of all the champions at TPC Potomac, Bob Estes had the most victories at the time of their win with four. So you can see the trend of the course, winners that would be hard to promote in the following years.

So in 2007, the course was radically changed. Numerous competitive and aesthetic changes were made to the golf course to make it more challenging for tournament play. This included significant modifications, re-shaping, and enhancements to all 18 holes, featuring a complete re-design of holes 10, 11, and 13; lengthening of the course to 7,139 yards, with a new par-70 design; a new state-of-the-art irrigation system; an aesthetic and competitive design solution to stormwater management issues on holes 4, 5, 6, 10, 11 and 12.

During the renovations, all the greens, tees, and fairways were rebuilt with Bentgrass and a new irrigation and drainage system. The greens were re-orientated and re-contoured, and all bunkers were re-positioned and re-shaped giving it more of a Scottish feel, along with adding tall fescue grasses to some. All holes were re-graded and had their fairways reduced to approximately 30 to 35 yards. Accent features like stone walls and eight timber bridges create an older feel and charm. Along with all of these changes an expansive new practice facility and the short game area were built.

So who does the course favor? In past years the winners hit lots of greens and putting well, so this will be something that we will think about. Still, we have to judge this as a brand new course in which we really don’t know who the course favors. In picking our four categories we are going to pick four strokes gained stats which will help us choose who’s game is the sharpest going into this event. Here are the results from the 2017 and ’18 events that will help us judge what features players will need. With the changes, the course was more of a shotmaking course. In 2018 the course ranked 21st in Driving accuracy and 16th 2018. The course was 21st in Greens hit in 2018 and 9th in 2017 so it was important to hit lots of greens. For those that missed greens, scrambling became important, in 2018 it ranked 10th and in 2017 it was 6th. Putting was also important, in putting inside ten feet it ranked 28th in 2018 and 27th in 2017. As for par breakers, it was 18th in 2018 and 8th in 2017. All of these are decent rankings showing the course has some characteristics that we can pinpoint to determine who is best for the course. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm played to a 69.89 scoring average in 2018 and ranked 18th, in 2017 it played to a 71.46 scoring average and ranked 4th so the course does have some bite to it. The winners of the events, 2017 Kyle Stanley won for the second time and in 2018 Francesco Molinari won for the first time on the PGA Tour but had won in Europe.

Of the 156 players in the field, 136 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2022. Unfortunately, Rory McIlroy and Paul Casey aren’t on this list because they didn’t play the minimum of 24 rounds (McIlroy played 22 and Casey played 18).

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: The per round average of the number of Strokes the player was better or worse than the field average on the same course & event minus the Players Strokes Gained putting value.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the Green: Perfect stat to see who picks up the most strokes by hitting the green and getting it close

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: Of course players are going to miss greens, this stat help figure out who gets it up and down when they miss greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: So who saves the most strokes on the greens

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the stats of all 136 players

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,500
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Abraham Ancer – $10,400
• Corey Conners – $10,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,000
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,900
• Marc Leishman – $9,700
• Keegan Bradley – $9,600
• Russell Henley – $9,300
• Gary Woodland – $9,100
• Patrick Reed – $9,000

Defending champion Rory McIlroy is valued at $11,500.  Makes sense as the defending champion and he was 2nd in his last start at Augusta.  Normally we would say yes to him since he has a great record at Quail Hollow.  But he hasn’t played at TPC Potomac, but just a couple of miles away has some pleasant memories from his 2011 U.S. Open victory at Congressional.  I still say yes to McIlroy, he is great from tee to green, it’s lots of greens so he can do very well this week.  As for Tony Finau at $10,600, he is placed high due to his runner-up finish in Mexico.  But his season has been rough, he has been terrible with his putter this year, and frankly, one great finish on a course that favors his length doesn’t translate to picking him this week.  Yes, he is 11th in Greens in Regulation and 8th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, but he is still 144th in around the green and 195th in putting, so I say no to picking him.  Abraham Ancer at $10,400 is also a no, he has played well twice at Mayakoba (T-7th) and the Match Play (T-5th) but the stats show a story that he may struggle with this week.  He is 72nd in greens in regulation, 145th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and those two tell the story of why you don’t want Ancer this week.  Still, on the other side of the fence, he was T-4th at TPC Potomac in 2018.  Now the best bet in this high price category is Corey Conners at $10,100.  His game has been sharp since finishing 3rd at the Match Play, he was T-6th at the Masters and T-12th at Heritage.  It’s hard to believe that he hasn’t won since the 2019 Valero Texas Open, but feel he could get off the snide this week.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,000 is also a big yes even though he ranks 90th in Greens in Regulation.  I like him for many other reasons like he is 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, is 20th in Strokes Gained Around the Green, and has played great in 2022.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,900 is also someone that I like even though he is 186th in Greens in Regulation.  That’s because he is the best putter on the PGA Tour right now and is great with a driver.  He has played great in 2022 so I am expecting great things this week.  I am also expecting great things from Marc Leishman at $9,700.  First, he is 34th in Greens in Regulation, 46th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and 19th in Strokes Gained Putting.  Now to put a cherry on top of the cake, he played at TPC Potomac in the 2017 Quicken Loans and finished T5th and in 2018 was T-13th.  Keegan Bradley at $9,600 is also a player that interests me.  He is 10th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and has played well in 2022 finishing 5th at the Players, T-8th at the Valero Texas Open, and T-4th at the Zurich.  He also has fond memories of TPC Potomac, in his only start in 2015 was T-5th.  Also like Russell Henley at $9,300, he is 9th in Greens in Regulation, 1st in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, and 6th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  He has struggled a bit in 2022 with only two top-ten finishes the best when he lost a playoff at the Sony Open in Hawaii.  Gary Woodland at $9,100 is also a viable choice, he is 63rd in Greens in Regulation and is a good driver of the ball.  He has played well of last in his last seven starts and has three top-ten finishes.  Patrick Reed at $9,000 is a no for me, this isn’t his type of course as he is 173rd in Greens in Regulation and not that great of a driver ranking 199th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  In 2022 he hasn’t played well since finishing T-3rd at the Hero World Challenge in December.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Now Sergio Garcia isn’t a bad choice at $8,700, he is 50th in Greens in Regulation.  For the year he has made a lot of cuts but has only one top-ten a T-7th at Mayakoba, the question will be if he takes a liking to TPC Potomac.  Seamus Power at $8,300 is worth the look at.  He is 4th in Greens in Regulation and has played well in 2022.  This is a perfect course for his game.  Cameron Young at $8,000 is a very good player at a very good price.  Yes, he struggles with his iron play, and is 155th in Greens in Regulation.  But he is a good driver and putter which makes up for a lot, also like that in 2022 was T-2nd at Sanderson Farms and Genesis and T-3rd in his last start at Heritage.  Matt Kuchar at $7,900 is worth a look, yes is not great with his irons to the green but still a great driver and putting well.  In his last two starts was T-2nd at Valero Texas Open and T-3rd at Heritage so he is hot.  Aaron Rai is $7,900 and is the type of dark horse that wins events like these.  All his stats are in the ballpark, he is 55th in Greens in Regulation and 50th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  His putter is his problem and if he can get hot with it can do well  Last week was 8th going into the final round but shot 72, these are the things that need improvement.  Also, like Sepp Straka at $7,600, he was T-3rd at Heritage, another course where greens in regulation are important.  He also won Honda, he is 69th in Greens in Regulation

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Wells Fargo

The pickings in this category are really good, first I like Brandon Wu at $7,500.  Not only do I like him for finishing 2nd last week in Mexico, but he is 47th in Greens in Regulation and is 30th in Strokes Gained Putting.  Also, like Anirban Lahiri at $7,400 yes not that great with the irons but has played well the past two months including a 2nd at the Players and T-15th at the Mexico Open.  Francesco Molinari is $7,400 and even though he doesn’t have the stats that makes him a good choice, I like the fact that he won at TPC Potomac in 2018.  The same Rickie Fowler at $7,400, his stats are a disaster but we have to feel he is going to find his game one day and he comes into this event with good TPC Potomac Karma.  He was T-3rd in 2017 and 12th in 2018.  He could surprise us.  Now, this best bet in his price range is Russell Knox at $7,300.  He is 2nd in Greens in Regulation, and 33rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  Now he is not a good putter but if he could be average he will do well.  He was T-6th at the Players and T-7th at Sony, courses that like TPC Potomac demand good iron play.  Matthias Schwab at $7,200 is good because he makes a lot of cuts, is 47th in Greens in Regulation, is good with the driver, and good around and on the greens. He has played well of late including T-7th finishes at Honda and Puerto Rico along with a T-8th at Valero Texas.  If your looking for another cheap player that makes a lot of cuts Lucas Glover is $7,200 and we know how good he is from tee to green.  Yes, the putter is the problem, but he makes a lot of cuts.  Nate Lashley at $7,000 is a good choice because he has had a lot of good finishes of late, and was T-11th at Mexico.  Sung Kang at $6,900 and we pick him for his great play at TPC Potomac.  He was T-5th in 2017 and 3rd in 2018.  This has to weigh a lot despite him being below average this year.  I like him for the positive and think he will make the cut.  Last we pick Ryan Armour at $6,800, he has had his problems this year but was 2nd at TPC Potomac in 2018.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo:

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

The key stat for the winner:

• As we can see, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms has some teeth to it from tee to green.  So for this week look for players that hit it straight, far, hit lots of greens, and scramble well.  As for putting, that will take a back seat this week to the ball strikers.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Since there aren’t many marquee names in the field, look for a non-marquee player to win.  Look at the leaderboard at TPC Potomac from 2018, lot’s of former winners like Ryan Armour (2nd), Sung Kang (3rd), Brian Gay (T-8th), and Ryan Palmer (T-8th) have won on the PGA Tour but not for a while.  The same with winner Francesco Molinari, he hadn’t won since the 2019 British Open.
• Weather should play a factor this week, as it will rain on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  It will also be cool at a 72-degree day on Thursdays the temperature goes down to 61 on Friday, and 57 over the weekend.  Winds will be in the 10 to 13 mph range the first three days, look for Sunday to be the only perfect day of the event.